Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:03
  #2341 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Currently within the EU
Posts: 315
Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
DUP won't support the deal in any form which isn't surprising...

Apparently there are plans afoot to roll back the vote on it anyway....

Corybn won't want 39 billion out his coffers or stuck with EU regulations limiting what he can do....

May can't stop ART 50 without a act of parliament or a court case saying she doesn't need one.

I suspect they are thinking that the 39billion will be to much for the EU to loose (I disagree with that though) and try and hold out to the final week. BUt they will be gazzumpt by Corybn calling a vote of no confidence and a GE being held.

The idea that the queen will get involved is amusing... but highly unlikely.

I suggest you stick to not being a betting man.
And project fear was supposed to be fanciful - I suggest you get that crystal ball cleaned up.
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:04
  #2342 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: UK
Posts: 1,627
Even an arch Brexiteer, Andrew Baxter, MD of Europa Worldwide, appears to be getting a little concerned about how a no deal Brexit might affect his business; oh the irony

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46739895

This "Reality Check" article (of course from the "remain biased BBC") blows holes in just about every argument that the likes of Brextremists JR-M and some hear make about it being "alright on the night".

DUP won't support the deal in any form which isn't surprising...

Apparently there are plans afoot to roll back the vote on it anyway....

Corybn won't want 39 billion out his coffers or stuck with EU regulations limiting what he can do....

May can't stop ART 50 without a act of parliament or a court case saying she doesn't need one.

I suspect they are thinking that the 39billion will be to much for the EU to loose (I disagree with that though) and try and hold out to the final week. BUt they will be gazzumpt by Corybn calling a vote of no confidence and a GE being held.

The idea that the queen will get involved is amusing... but highly unlikely.

I suggest you stick to not being a betting man.
There is an inbuilt majority for Remain in the House of Commons, and many people who were happy to accept that Brexit would happen who are getting increasingly alarmed by the lemming like way in which the UK is apparently willing to jump off a cliff. When it comes down to it, I think there will be two ways this could probably go, first, enough MPs realise that May's deal is better than no deal, and give in; or her deal gets thrown out and parliament decides what to do next, that I think will be (if the EU were to allow it) a pause on Art 50 whilst we renegotiate, or a pause on Art 50 so the UK can have another referendum - which they are more likely to accept. The nuclear options of no deal crash or cancelling Art.50 are much less likely.

As for betting, it's a mug's game.
ATNotts is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:28
  #2343 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: mids
Age: 54
Posts: 0
There are mechanisms though which basically short the house out for long enough that the clock finishes before they can do anything about it. So even if they agreed to it, then a vote in no confidence would close the house and there would be no way of it getting an act through in time. But realistically I can't see it getting through.

Also as well for any extension to occur there needs to be agreement of all 27 members. That's is not a certainty as various members will want things in return which are legally binding before saying yes.

Fishing, Gib, Irish border will all rear their head. And it won't matter what the core countries say or the commission it only takes one to dig their heels in and that's the clock run out.
tescoapp is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:29
  #2344 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hampshire
Age: 72
Posts: 677
The thing about the Commons having an inbuilt Remain majority irks me. (I am not arguing that by the way). What annoys me is that we are somehow supposed to give priority or credence to the views of a majority of 600 odd people. Yet 33.5 million people voted in the referndum, with a majority for Leave. Are we supposed to bow to the wishes of a proportion of 600 or to the wishes of a proportion of 33.5 million? The idea would still annoy me, regardless of which way I voted!
KelvinD is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:29
  #2345 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England, EU
Posts: 3,415
Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
We are leaving the EU on the 29th of March by automatic operation of law notwithstanding something extraordinary taking place.
I suspect that a number of the players are still expecting the EU to stop the clock and ignore the law for a few hours during which they will concede all sorts of free rainbow coloured flying unicorns. My expectation is that they will be disappointed.
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:31
  #2346 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England, EU
Posts: 3,415
Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
no way of it getting an act through in time
And it is for precisely these sorts of reasons that decision making bodies have urgency procedures. In the case of the UK government this is orders in council - the urgent decision can be made when it needs to be made and the paperwork is sorted out later (eg at some later time when there is actually a government or parliament or whatever).
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:37
  #2347 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Chez Sprog
Posts: 493
Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
The thing about the Commons having an inbuilt Remain majority irks me. (I am not arguing that by the way). What annoys me is that we are somehow supposed to give priority or credence to the views of a majority of 600 odd people. Yet 33.5 million people voted in the referndum, with a majority for Leave. Are we supposed to bow to the wishes of a proportion of 600 or to the wishes of a proportion of 33.5 million? The idea would still annoy me, regardless of which way I voted!
We live in a representative democracy. This has been explained to you several times previously yet here you are questioning it again.
Sprogget is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:38
  #2348 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: mids
Age: 54
Posts: 0
Crystal ball is doing great so far.

1.1045 at 15:30 Utc on the 3rd and bottled it at 1.1125 today.
tescoapp is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 11:40
  #2349 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Currently within the EU
Posts: 315
As has been pointed out many times, if MPs were to slavishly follow the majority views of their constituents we would long have had a death penalty.
Although we would have had to leave the EU to instate it. Perhaps it will happen after Brexit.
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:09
  #2350 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Farnham, Surrey
Posts: 1,190
Originally Posted by KelvinD View Post
The thing about the Commons having an inbuilt Remain majority irks me. (I am not arguing that by the way). What annoys me is that we are somehow supposed to give priority or credence to the views of a majority of 600 odd people. Yet 33.5 million people voted in the referndum, with a majority for Leave. Are we supposed to bow to the wishes of a proportion of 600 or to the wishes of a proportion of 33.5 million? The idea would still annoy me, regardless of which way I voted!
Well if you want to take that tack you should be campaigning for the arrest and summary execution of Jacob Rees-Mogg for comtempt of democracy. His constituency (North East Somerset) voted 58/42 for Remain (>75% turnout), so clearly he has no grounds being allowed to continue living after continuing his vocal support for Leave. So as well as being a brainless, lying hypocrite he's also a despotic enemy of democracy. You can't have it both ways, you know...

PDR
PDR1 is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:10
  #2351 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Farnham, Surrey
Posts: 1,190
Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
As has been pointed out many times, if MPs were to slavishly follow the majority views of their constituents we would long have had a death penalty.
I would support the death penalty, but only for Leave voters

PDR
PDR1 is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:23
  #2352 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: mids
Age: 54
Posts: 0
Thus proving why just cancelling ART 50 would just make matters worse. There are people of equal feeling on the leave side as well.
tescoapp is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:39
  #2353 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Chez Sprog
Posts: 493
But not equal numbers by a long way, so says every poll. We're leaving what's your problem?
Sprogget is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:41
  #2354 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Farnham, Surrey
Posts: 1,190
Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
Thus proving why just cancelling ART 50 would just make matters worse. There are people of equal feeling on the leave side as well.
True, but of course they are wrong...



PDR
PDR1 is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 12:50
  #2355 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,570
Many remainers here assert that should there be another referendum the trainers would have it. That is refuted in a YouGov poll where 80% of Tory members would support no deal or May deal with only 15% for remain.

​​​​​​The article hasn't played with numbers but I am sure we can on JB.

To carry a remain vote you would need 80% of non Tory members, and then some, to win.

is that realistic or likely?
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 13:10
  #2356 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England, EU
Posts: 3,415
Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Many remainers here assert that should there be another referendum
Not me. I'd rather avoid the expense, work, hassle, faff, of another referendum and just revoke A50. Thereby saving me thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours' work.
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 13:54
  #2357 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Chez Sprog
Posts: 493
Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Many remainers here assert that should there be another referendum the trainers would have it. That is refuted in a YouGov poll where 80% of Tory members would support no deal or May deal with only 15% for remain.
Tory membership = 125k.
Electorate ~ 48m
Sprogget is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 13:59
  #2358 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,570
Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Not me. I'd rather avoid the expense, work, hassle, faff, of another referendum and just revoke A50. Thereby saving me thousands of pounds and hundreds of hours' work.
OK, no referendum but you won't get a revocation either as the figures suggest remain is no where near the will of the people.
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 14:05
  #2359 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,570
Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
Tory membership = 125k.
Electorate ~ 48m
True, and I did consider this was an eclectic sample that may not be representative of the whole. I discounted it as 80% of a such a sample would suggest a fairly high percentage of other groups favour brexit too.
Pontius Navigator is offline  
Old 4th Jan 2019, 14:35
  #2360 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Chez Sprog
Posts: 493
Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
True, and I did consider this was an eclectic sample that may not be representative of the whole. I discounted it as 80% of a such a sample would suggest a fairly high percentage of other groups favour brexit too.
Extrapolation is a dangerous thing. However, you've hit upon a key issue. The referendum was a free vote for all. A meaningful vote, if Fritty pants ever holds one, is a different thing altogether. Very few MP's as we have seen put country before party & fewer still before career so 'Taking back control' may very well mean any vote on the deal falling, effectively into the hands of a very unrepresentative demographic of blue rinse constituency association barflies, wielding the threat of de-selection if the numbers are anything to go by.

Ain't democracy great?!
Sprogget is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.