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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 4th Jan 2019, 07:37
  #2321 (permalink)  
 
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I wouldn't worry they will only be around for a couple of months.

If they get back in again then it will be a full set of new faces.

I can't see anything coming from the EU now. They are stuck as well with what they can offer. And it will be the Eu that will make Ireland put up the hard border for goods going over to them.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 07:45
  #2322 (permalink)  
 
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They should be much more concerned about the extreme Labour government that is going to follow in its wake.
Firstly, your making an assumption Labour will get voted in, which I'd say is about as likely as the non-existent LD upswing some are hoping for.

Secondly, I'm not convinced much of Labour's headline agenda is any more extreme than the Tories.

Against a backdrop of mass over-population of our small Island and the wider threat of climate change the lovable Tories propose:
1. LHR expansion
2. HS2
3. Building 300k additional houses per annum
4. A massive road building programme
5. The CaMKOx growth arc (outer M25 with ~1M new houses and supporting infrastructure)

Meanwhile "extreme" Labour propose:
1. Renationalising the railways
2. A load more social housing
3. Higher taxes for many individuals
4. Higher taxes for many corporates

Who seems more dangerous to you?
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 07:51
  #2323 (permalink)  
 
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Labour hold hidden surprises as well.

And the renationalising of railways which is a core "want" of Corybn couldn't be done if the UK had any link at all to the EU.

To be honest I don't; think its a bad thing for the railways to be nationalised, but quiet how you would turn back the clock I have no clue at all about.

Definitely a no win situation.

I reckon its going to be a hung parliament in 83 days time which way I have no clue but at least a hung parliament will stop any of the major stupid things going through.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 07:57
  #2324 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Yes. I do so luuuurve the ever increasing shrillness of the #brexiteers' rising panic.
OK, I was a remainer. I would possibly vote leave next time around if there was a next time. I will not be the only one out of 35m on the centre ground. From the high ground I see both sides in increasingly entrenched positions. Remainers convinced that the majority of the people now support remain. Brexiters convinced that experience of the EU over 40 years, and the last 2 especially, prove out is better than in.

I think what both sides would agree is that Cameron screwed the whole thing and then buggered off rather than face the music. The right thing at least? Further I think we would agree that our politicians, possibly misled by their officials, got the negotiations completely wrong and wasted two years. The delay between Jun 16 and Mar 17 when May implemented Article 50 was similarly wasted. That should have been when our two options were mapped out.

Maybe they were, but it looks as if the Dennis Norden view prevailed.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 08:12
  #2325 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I think what both sides would agree is that Cameron screwed the whole thing and then buggered off rather than face the music.
Agreed.

Further I think we would agree that our politicians, possibly misled by their officials, got the negotiations completely wrong and wasted two years..
I’m not sure the officials misled anybody........I think it actually suited (and still suits) one or two politicians to run the clock down on this and then present parliament with what appears to be a very limited range of options with time fast running out...it certainly suits one politician in particular...

For example given David Davis’s reputation for work rate (or lack of it) was apparently known to many in Westminster years ago why was he given such a pivotal role in negotiating with the EU?

The next few days are going to be very interesting...
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 08:15
  #2326 (permalink)  
 
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I would regard the parliamentary act enabling the Prime Minister to notify article 50 without preparation or any form of coherent plan as one of the worst policy failures in modern times. A two year legal time bomb coming home to roost. Every MP, pundit & Brexiteer, including Corbyn who demanded it the day after the referendum is guilty in my opinion.

Grimmer still is news this morning that 59% of Tory members would consider quitting over May's deal. This is what taking back control really looks like 125,000 retired G&T wallahs holding a gun to Tory MP's heads. Go us!

https://www.businessinsider.com/brex...19-1?r=US&IR=T
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 08:23
  #2327 (permalink)  
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Wiggy, I knew of DD years ago though never met him. I would not categorise him was a useful idiot; UIs have to have some credibility and influence. He always struck me as an amiable idiot. The sort you might see in a pub surrounded by a coterie of sycophants; not someone that would actually do anything.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 08:28
  #2328 (permalink)  
 
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the thing is if the country had just started no deal exit from day one then history would be very different.

Negotiations would have been quiet different as well.

But the country would have never united with that plan.

The turmoil has led to the EU thinking there was a possibility of Art50 cancellation with conditions which would fix the problems with the UK with opt outs and rebates. So now the EU is stuffed as well which ever way it goes.

The only realistic plan the UK could have done before ART 50 was a no deal exit, Everything else had to many external variables attached to it.

BTW to add I think basically we have a John Major thing going on here. Basically he only got the post because everyone thought there was no chance of the conservatives winning the next election. Same with this setup nobody who wants to be in long term conservative leadership group will touch it with a barge pole until after exit.
Labour something else funny is going on. Which I don't know enough about them to put my finger on.

Last edited by tescoapp; 4th Jan 2019 at 09:06.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 09:05
  #2329 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post

I reckon its going to be a hung parliament in 83 days time which way I have no clue but at least a hung parliament will stop any of the major stupid things going through.
Will it though tescoapp? That's my problem with the two party state, on many of the really fundamental issues the respective vested interests mean there's nothing to choose between them. HS2 is the obvious example, but I don't hear much opposition from Labour on the growth arc or help2buy, or LHR expansion? It all gets very tedious after a while and just stinks of an establishment that is well overdue a good clear out.

I personally would like a genuine alternative to what we have now.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 09:11
  #2330 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sprogget View Post
I would regard the parliamentary act enabling the Prime Minister to notify article 50 without preparation or any form of coherent plan as one of the worst policy failures in modern times. A two year legal time bomb coming home to roost. Every MP, pundit & Brexiteer, including Corbyn who demanded it the day after the referendum is guilty in my opinion.
Guilty of what though? The people spoke, so they had to act. Surely the guilt / complacency / arrogance / stupidity lies with Cameron and Osborne? They led us down the track, with absolutely no post conflict plan in place!
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 09:13
  #2331 (permalink)  
 
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I am sure most people would.

Corybn has a personal plan which will require all the parliamentary time and cash to implement. Quite what he will support and what he will sacrifice I have no clue about.

They seem to be running neutral on pretty much anything that will split voters. Better to say nothing and only commit on what they think are pure vote winners than say anything about controversial topics which have to potential to loose as many as they gain.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 09:36
  #2332 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I think what both sides would agree is that Cameron screwed the whole thing and then buggered off rather than face the music. The right thing at least? Further I think we would agree that our politicians, possibly misled by their officials, got the negotiations completely wrong and wasted two years. The delay between Jun 16 and Mar 17 when May implemented Article 50 was similarly wasted.
Yes, happy to agree with that.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 09:47
  #2333 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
Guilty of what though? The people spoke, so they had to act. Surely the guilt / complacency / arrogance / stupidity lies with Cameron and Osborne? They led us down the track, with absolutely no post conflict plan in place!
I truly LOVE how you try to deny the question then try to answer it with egg & pineapple, the bias is delicious to watch.
e
As usual though, you have it backwards. Cameron may have walked away like a coward but so did Johnson & Farage, leaving May to pick up the pieces. What you can't see is May triggering article 50 with no consensus, plan or preparation, setting off a two year Tory psychodrama, via a failed GE campaign stripping the PM of her majority & therefore, her authority which led directly to Tory civil war, an executive held to ransom by various emboldened loonies, the DUP, ERG etc. all threatening to scupper a plan which didn't exist when ART 50 went in beyond meaningless soundbites like 'Brexit means Brexit'????? 'Red, white & blue Brexit'????? and all the rest of the hogwash before ending up with Chequers that no one wants and has led to May pulling the vote once in a transparent attempt to force it through by means of running the clock down.

ALL of that was entirely avoidable had the PM levelled with the country & said we don't know how this should look, so we're going to debate it, arrive at a plan & go from there. She didn't do that & consequently we are now on the brink of a crisis. So no, they didn't have to act. They didn't have to set the clock running at all and they certainly shouldn't have rushed headlong into the biggest strategic decision in the nation's history since 1939 without first having a workable plan.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:28
  #2334 (permalink)  
 
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its one way of looking at it..... but then again I presume your preference would be to never submit Art50

Anyway its in the past now and has zero bearing on the next 84 days.

Its actually quiet amusing to see politicians with a defined date for once.

The energy supply issue has been going on for a good 15 odd years with 25% of the Uks energy production due to be retired in 2025 to replace like with like takes a good 10 years. What has been done about it...… absolutely nothing.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:32
  #2335 (permalink)  
 
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I think that the current alliance between Corbyn and the ERG needs to be viewed through the perspective of what those two disparate parties wish to achieve. In the case of the former it's freedom from EU control. Control that would many of the policies that many on here would regard as anathema. In the case of the ERG they wish to gain control also. But their policies include the creation of a trading nation free of all forms of limitation of the type imposed by the EU.

Javid's latest wheeze of allowing unlimited access by immigrants for a five year period fits in neatly with the ERG dream of unlimited cheap labour. Poles and Hungarians need a living wage. Those arriving from Afghanistan, Syria or Somalia won't and these people will drive the New Economy.

So it's a high stakes game. EU Remainers think that we have a tolerable system so don't want to rock the boat. The ERG and the Corbynites are happy to stake everything on their side in a fight to the death. If we do leave the EU it's going to be a damn close thing as to which side triumphs. Personally I don't relish this.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:34
  #2336 (permalink)  
 
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Anyway its in the past now and has zero bearing on the next 84 days.
That's 84 days for May to either apply to stop the Art.50 clock whilst we sort out this mess; or to take the bull by the horns and cancel it. She may as well go the whole hog and do the latter, as she'll hardly get any more brownie points for postponing!

Were I a betting man, which I'm not and never have been, I'd put a reasonable sum on whatever shenanigans our useless MPs get up to, we won't have officially left the EU at 23:00 on 29th March 2019. We're doubtless going the the final stretch on a Sunday afternoon but there are plenty of tricky holes and water hazards to negotiate on the way and knocking the ball down the fairways with a pitching wedge isn't going to get any sort of result.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:47
  #2337 (permalink)  
 
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We are leaving the EU on the 29th of March by automatic operation of law notwithstanding something extraordinary taking place.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:51
  #2338 (permalink)  
 
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DUP won't support the deal in any form which isn't surprising...

Apparently there are plans afoot to roll back the vote on it anyway....

Corybn won't want 39 billion out his coffers or stuck with EU regulations limiting what he can do....

May can't stop ART 50 without a act of parliament or a court case saying she doesn't need one.

I suspect they are thinking that the 39billion will be to much for the EU to loose (I disagree with that though) and try and hold out to the final week. BUt they will be gazzumpt by Corybn calling a vote of no confidence and a GE being held.

The idea that the queen will get involved is amusing... but highly unlikely.

I suggest you stick to not being a betting man.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:57
  #2339 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with the. 39 billion is that it's getting paid anyway, even in the case of a no deal. Apparently it's money that we are already legally committed to paying. The idea of not paying it anyway is attractive. The problem with that is that every British lorry arriving at Calais would most likely get diverted to a customs shed near the Belgian border while it's paperwork was checked.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 10:58
  #2340 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post

I suggest you stick to not being a betting man.
It's a bit rich you offering advice when every last missive you stick up here is stuffed from head to toe with farcical speculation.

Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post

BTW to add I think basically we have a John Major thing going on here. Basically he only got the post because everyone thought there was no chance of the conservatives winning the next election. Same with this setup nobody who wants to be in long term conservative leadership group will touch it with a barge pole until after exit.
Riiiight.

Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post

Burning UK lorry's in France is not outside the realms of possibility when exit occurs and the economic effects kick in with the UK import market becoming outside the customs union.
Riiiiiiiiiight.
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