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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

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UK Politics Hamsterwheel MkII

Old 31st Dec 2018, 16:11
  #2181 (permalink)  
 
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Can't be bothered finding the link but, the thing I read said that the company deemed that commercially sensitive and didn't want to be gazumpted on the vessels in question.

They need a shallow draft boat with rear door self deploying ramp. am presuming it will be a dual deck lorry vessel, cabins will only be required for drivers. Something like the M.V. Helliar

BTW don't take me replying to the question as being anywhere near thinking that the boats will be sitting in Ramsgate which will be fit ready for work on the 30th. Personally I think Ramsgate is the wrong port for the job. The who gets to piss the money up the wall is neither here nor there.
If they've sealed the deal, then there's no reason why they can't disclose which ships they are. They have probably identified some possible candidates in some part of the world, but will have to have them surveyed before signing on the dotted line. When they can name them I'll believe the exist.

Cabins ought not be an issue for a 3 hour crossing from Oostende, and one assumes they will be freight only vessels. I read whilst researching the whole Ramsgate question that the largest ship they could use is the former Nord Pas de Calais that used to ply between Dover and Calais and can carry just 85 trucks, which gives an idea of how much of an impact that even an hourly service could have, and I don't believe that an hourly service is even practical given the size of the port and it's ro-ro facilities. It's clearly not the right port for the job, as you quite rightly say.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 16:42
  #2182 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post


To be honest I haven't seen any creditable assessment that I agree with for either better or worse. So far they have all been wrong from both sides.


BTW its in my plans that the Eu will impose 5% tax on all Eu resident people to cover the UK leaving. If it doesn't happen or is less than 5% then I am more than happy. But at least I have planned for the possibility. I don't know how it will be extracted, if it will be income based or a raise in the VAT.
I'm not particularly interested in what you've seen that you agree with or what you expect some organisation to do in the future, I asked you for a credible analysis that implies Brexit is a good idea on any economic level. If you can't offer one, simply say so.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 16:55
  #2183 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect you are correct and although moving towards starting a service, they hadn't completed the survey and legal documents. So they are still exposed to the owners taking a better offer. To be honest its the same in Aircraft leasing as well. You only know what the aircraft is when you get off the flight to pick it up. The documents aren't signed until the engineering inspection of hardware and paper work 2 pilots 3 engineers and a CAMO and there is always a screw up.

We are going back to my "trucking" 20-30 odd years ago now, there are obviously some on the thread who are more up to date. There is something that a driver needs somewhere to lie down flat and inside the safety pax area for the ship. So staying in the cab is not an option so there has to be some cabins. They don't have to be posh and can be 4 x2 bunk beds that nobody ever uses but they have to be available. But I am perfectly happy to be told that I am wrong. In the old days you got a greasy spoon feeder, a smoke filled room with porn playing on a telly, those 4 high bunkbeds on both walls with dubious sheets or sweat to death plastic coverings, a duty free fags and booze shop, and there wasn't female toilets, quite often their was 2-3 hookers plying their trade as well. This had been phased out by the last time I went across the water and the ferrys had got bigger and there were cars onboard. You were still separated from the pax for the feeder, but you could go and mix with them if you wanted. The improvement I don't think is anything to do with the EU ;-)

The Nord Pas de Calais is actually bigger than expected and I suspect that Ramsgate Oostende will be deemed outside channel and thus a front door will not be allowed. With the shipping stuff half of it is regulations and the other half Lloyds shipping requirements. Never had dealings with them but Lloyds Engineering Certification quite rightly don't take any prisoners and keeping to just the regs won't pass muster.

I asked you for a credible analysis that implies Brexit is a good idea on any economic level
There isn't one, and neither is there any creditable analysis that's says its going to be bad idea. Everything is done on speculation. And all of it has been proved completely wrong so far. So wanting some make believe bit of prose which is purely a work of fiction is utterly pointless.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 16:57
  #2184 (permalink)  
 
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I have just listened to the boss of Lloyds discussing this on the BBC. He thinks the Ramsgate option is feasible and he says he has seen the Seaborne Freight plans etc and is happy they have plans/options for charters, along with financial backing. I am pretty sure I have used Ramsgate in the distant past to get to Ostend. I guess that, if Seaborne are planning to use the port, at least some of the infrastructure is still there. And I don't expect them to go into competition with the likes of P&O, Brittany Ferries etc so the size of link spans, deepest draught etc doesn't need to compare with the facilities at Dover. I guess we will have to wait and see!
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 17:10
  #2185 (permalink)  
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Thanet council are reporting having said their proposed capacity is a maximum of 3,360 trucks a day with 24 sailings. Which would seem to indicate up to 140 trucks per trip.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 17:20
  #2186 (permalink)  
 
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Lloyds giving a positive opinion at this stage is quiet surprising, they must have been quiet far down the path to starting operations anyway if they already knew about it.

You will have used it before the roads improved out of Calais, and if a load was heading north it was a no brainer to go to Ostend instead of spending hours escaping France. As soon as the roads improved to the point that you could get to the same place in the same time for cheaper then they switched to Dover Calais.

Port facilities

These seem to be current facility's

So yes we shall have to wait and see but it seems they have been planning this for quiet a time before default exit was going to occur both the Ramsgate port improvements and the Shipping Company. Ripe for someone to put a complaint into the ECJ about illegal government subsidy of a commercial operation though I suspect. But 3 months its a mute point anyway.

its 70 trucks per trip. Its like aircraft movements everytime a aircraft visits its counted as two movements. Those coming off are counted and those coming in are counted as well seperately so its 140 trucks per turn round 70 coming off and 70 going on.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 17:47
  #2187 (permalink)  
 
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Here’s an interesting perspective if anyone has a couple of minutes.


it is just one persons view though I readily accept.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 17:49
  #2188 (permalink)  
 
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Does anyone know the pairings of the other routes?

That video solution would work for the UK. But would be completely unacceptable for the EU.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 18:10
  #2189 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tescoapp View Post
I


There isn't one, and neither is there any creditable analysis that's says its going to be bad idea. Everything is done on speculation. And all of it has been proved completely wrong so far. So wanting some make believe bit of prose which is purely a work of fiction is utterly pointless.
I'm afraid that is an untruth. But it works for me, it tells me you are a man of faith, prepared to go as far as dishonesty for your cause. I can live with that, it's a position & one that hardly marks you out as unique but nevertheless, it is an untruth.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 18:10
  #2190 (permalink)  
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When the longest bull market in history ends and the cessation of quantitive easing begins to really hit the world, the EU has not one iota of slack to deal with the problems that will arise for individual countries let alone in a compulsory financial collective. Britain is far better placed than the EU to weather the coming storm provided of course that it is not called upon to help bail out the ghastly monstrosity that the EU has become.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 18:10
  #2191 (permalink)  
 
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We do not seem to know where this is going to end up. For the record I am pro brexit but would like to leave with a ‘deal’ of some sort but will we? Will we just leave in March with no deal? Some sort of deal or simply somehow remain.

Contrary to some assertions here, not all brexiteers are against a second referendum and I am one of them. When we invoked article 50 I was positively not in favour of a second referendum the reason being obvious - if we negotiated with the EU on the basis that any resultant deal would be put to a vote then the EU would not have negotiated in good faith. The fact is, they believed we were going to leave no matter what and therefore have negotiated with us on that basis. We are leaving - and they know it.

So, now we have a good dea what Brexit means and I think is arguable that a second referendum could be held. We know what leaving means, and we now know what remaining means.

But, we cannot just ignore the 52% of the people who voted to leave. That was democratic. What if we held a second referendum and 52% voted to remain - how can the two opposing results be reconciled? Endless.

In my personal view we must respect the original vote. If a second referendum were to be held I believe any result to overturn the agreed default position must be to a higher standard than 50%+1 or we will pull the country apart. We will have endless heartache again. So, let us have another referendum and if the accepted position is ‘no deal’ Brexit then the two options in any referendum would simply be:

1. Leave with the ‘May’ deal.
2. Remain.

But, and this is the important part, either 1 or 2 must have (say) more than a reasonable threshold above the total number of people eligible to vote - note ELIGIBLE to vote. 60% would seem a reasonable figure to me, 60% would show a very clear message. Otherwise it’s no deal Brexit as voted for in the first referendum.

Some sort of reasonable starting point?
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 18:24
  #2192 (permalink)  
 
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So you are suggesting that if we have a result of 59.9 Remain 40.1% Leave we leave? Very democratic. I suggest aggregating the two results.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 18:38
  #2193 (permalink)  
 
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It doesn't fit in with the game of demand proof and if they don't provide it label them complete idiots, I will admit. But as for untruth... not really nothing has occurred so far that anyone has predicted from either side. Every single analysis so far has been a work of fiction be it Bank of England or various other entities with the full range of bias both ways. Surprisingly there was very little said if anything about the likely hood of the current situation which was my prediction from the very start. Don't worry I have watched this demand proof game through the Scottish ref and this ref and over the last two years. Pretty much universally its been a complete failure for all that use it. Opinion is never changed and things happen anyway, usually how neither side predicted. So I won't demand anything from you because it just doesn't exist.

Those questions would be ripped apart yellow, and having a 3 way ref would be utter chaos.

The hole has been dug on the referendum front, it would take years and years to sort the technicality's out. And both the UK and the Eu would be held in limbo from moving forward. Which I suspect would do more damage to the EU than it would to the UK. They have a huge backlog of changes that need to be made to survive a lot of which would be extremely unpopular to the UK voters.

We shall see, I still recon Corybn is going to play a blinder and things will get spectacularly silly in the last 4 weeks.

I still can't see Aunty Betty donning a superwoman outfit and getting a pen out to save the day and screw up the day for a small minority both sides of the divide.

Last edited by tescoapp; 31st Dec 2018 at 18:58.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 19:36
  #2194 (permalink)  
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its 70 trucks per trip. Its like aircraft movements everytime a aircraft visits its counted as two movements. Those coming off are counted and those coming in are counted as well seperately so its 140 trucks per turn round 70 coming off and 70 going on.
Good point, well made, accepted. So well within the harbour capacity once dredged.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 21:46
  #2195 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
Here’s an interesting perspective if anyone has a couple of minutes.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C1ilSk9BqJk

it is just one persons view though I readily accept.
Yes, take advice from the former advisor to Australia’s former PM who contributed advice so good he was kicked out of office less than two years there. /s

Actually parallels with Brexit well. Her PM was elected due to public dissatisfaction with the existing political situation in the country but once he got into power and had to actually do things beyond winning a vote he proved to be such a disaster his popularity plummeted to the point his party got rid of him just under two years later.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 21:49
  #2196 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
We do not seem to know where this is going to end up. For the record I am pro brexit but would like to leave with a ‘deal’ of some sort but will we? Will we just leave in March with no deal? Some sort of deal or simply somehow remain.

Contrary to some assertions here, not all brexiteers are against a second referendum and I am one of them. When we invoked article 50 I was positively not in favour of a second referendum the reason being obvious - if we negotiated with the EU on the basis that any resultant deal would be put to a vote then the EU would not have negotiated in good faith. The fact is, they believed we were going to leave no matter what and therefore have negotiated with us on that basis. We are leaving - and they know it.

So, now we have a good dea what Brexit means and I think is arguable that a second referendum could be held. We know what leaving means, and we now know what remaining means.

But, we cannot just ignore the 52% of the people who voted to leave. That was democratic. What if we held a second referendum and 52% voted to remain - how can the two opposing results be reconciled? Endless.

In my personal view we must respect the original vote. If a second referendum were to be held I believe any result to overturn the agreed default position must be to a higher standard than 50%+1 or we will pull the country apart. We will have endless heartache again. So, let us have another referendum and if the accepted position is ‘no deal’ Brexit then the two options in any referendum would simply be:

1. Leave with the ‘May’ deal.
2. Remain.

But, and this is the important part, either 1 or 2 must have (say) more than a reasonable threshold above the total number of people eligible to vote - note ELIGIBLE to vote. 60% would seem a reasonable figure to me, 60% would show a very clear message. Otherwise it’s no deal Brexit as voted for in the first referendum.

Some sort of reasonable starting point?


Oh, the irony.
" In accordance with the Referendum Act 1975, the European Communities membership referendum took place on Thursday 5 June 1975, and voters approved continued EC/EEC membership by 67% to 33% on a national turnout of 64%. "

Last edited by Cpt_Pugwash; 31st Dec 2018 at 22:25. Reason: Clarity
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 22:16
  #2197 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yellowtriumph View Post
Otherwise it’s no deal Brexit as voted for in the first referendum.

That wasn't on the ballot in the referendum.

A second referendum in any event would be a first referendum. We had a vote on leaving or staying with no defined version of leaving. Now we know what leaving actually means, any subsequent vote is in plain logic, a referendum on whether the people want what is on offer. All the polls say they don't, hence monumental resistance from Brexiteers, a government with no working majority terrified of the consequences of it's own lack of foresight leading it to insist the will of the people is some kind of museum exhibit & ignoring a growing chorus of calls to investigate the original vote that was clearly subject to foreign interference.

What a lovely war!
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 22:28
  #2198 (permalink)  
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Actually, you don't know what leaving means. All that you know is that there are huge influences and many people absolutely determined to ignore the 72% turnout 2016 referendum result. This is not the same as fiscal drag but might be comparable, given the state of the EU government and its malevolence towards those who would leave its corrosive embrace, to feudal drag.
All that you know for absolute certain is that trying to leave is being made very difficult.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 22:50
  #2199 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
All that you know for absolute certain is that trying to leave is being made very difficult.
Not quite difficult enough, yet, sadly. Mostly because, against the clear will of the people, the Tories, Labour and the BBC are still very firmly committed to leaving (even none of them can explain why).

Although there have been several candidates for later designating as "the day that #brexit died" the ****ing thing won't lie down and stay dead. How is it again that you're supposed to get rid of zombies permanently? All very frustrating.
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Old 31st Dec 2018, 22:53
  #2200 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by cavortingcheetah View Post
..
All that you know for absolute certain is that trying to leave is being made very difficult.
..
Au contraire....leaving the EU at 2300 hrs (U.K. time) on 29th March is dead easy (certainly easier to arrange than than all those trade deals Laim Fox promised)...if the politicians at Westminster do nothing...at all.. zilch, nada, null, between now and then the U.K. will leave the EU with “no deal”...that’s the default.


Oh, and since it is already 2019 where I am, happy New Year to everybody.



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