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Should we be scared of Russia?

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Should we be scared of Russia?

Old 8th Oct 2018, 09:23
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Should we be scared of Russia?

Watching the Jeremy Vine show this am a subject was should we be scared of Russia , complete with an interesting character called Bill Browder who probably does have reason to be afraid of Russia but probably greater reason to fear the IRS.

It seems to em that all governments like to ahve a visible enemy, especially in times of stress, so putting the Russians with their stereotypical reputation as the bad guys (and girls) in a thousand films and stories is a pretty easy target.

But then what reason do the Russians have to direct the so called Cyber threat' against certain countries . Is it credible that the country that gave us the internet, Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc isnt vastly more advanced in such things and when does surveillance blur into hacking or an attempt to secure information become a cyber attack. So sdo the Russians do these things to- attack our digital infrastructure and and demonstrate they will and can fight back -deterrence to use a cold ware word surely the Russians to a degree want a prosperous Europe because they can sell their rather limited economies basic products . oil,gas, raw materials to it. And there are numerous wealthy Russians in the west who one supposes are valued clients of City institutions

The West is hardly ignorant or unskilled in such mater s as demonstrated by various high profile leaks , Snowden and Wikileaks etc. And vast amounts of data are trawled daily 'in support of the fight against terrorism' but does that really preclude schemes that started with projects like the Berlin tunnels , the secret submarine 'bells' missions the Five Eyes projects etc from not having an occasional peek in Russia's direction.

They have been accused of trying to influence elections- something we in Britain have never ever even thought about doing, and which for decades US did all across Latin America

So do the Russians, we cannot call them Reds anymore since they are more right wing than Europe if not the US (and they see their likely military enemy as China not the west) really constitute an enemy or are they just looking out for themselves which most nations try to do
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 10:37
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What a farrago of nonsense. Inventing something does not mean you keep a lead in its development - and particularly not in means to attack and destroy it. And I suggest you read Russian defence policy before stating they see China, not the west, as their enemy. See the link below, section II, especially paragraph 12.....

https://rusemb.org.uk/press/2029

”12. The main external military risks are:

a) build-up of the power potential of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and vesting NATO with global functions carried out in violation of the rules of international law, bringing the military infrastructure of NATO member countries near the borders of the Russian Federation, including by further expansion of the alliance........


Last edited by ORAC; 8th Oct 2018 at 11:53.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 11:09
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The interesting thing is really that Russia seems to believe that NATO poses a threat and does not want to see any state on its border joining NATO if it can help it.

Looked at logically this seems perverse - NATO isn't a threat to the Russian Federation itself at all, and never has been, at least since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I believe that the government of the RF have made it seem that NATO is a threat, to the population of the RF, for reasons that have nothing to do with any possible threat to it as a state. Russia wishes to continue to work with, and manipulate, other states, for its own political and economic reasons, and sees NATO as a threat to those expansionist policies, but rather than openly state this it dresses it up as if NATO is about to launch a pre-emptive attack on Russia itself.

I think the other serious question we need to ask is why Russia is engaged in a serious cyber warfare campaign in so many areas. What does Russia really gain by hacking into WADA, or allegedly interfering in elections? I can understand Russia wanting to try and obtain data from the OPCW, as they would be keen to know the classified details of OPCW investigations into the use of CW in Syria, as well as here in the UK, but, by getting caught in the act they have rather suggested that they may have been involved in the use of CW, probably the opposite of what they intended.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 11:42
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We should neither be scared nor naive. The post cold war honeymoon is over.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 11:50
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When 'Yuri Russian' (or whatever their equivalent of 'Johnny English' is!) is a bit more real and works for someone who has nukes, there might be good reason for concern!
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:05
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I thought the original fear of Russia was its tanks and their ability to over run the EU and a weak NATO.

The thorny issue today is the balance of missiles vs defense. between the US and Russia
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:05
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I mean, who's worried? There is no precedent for a broke, has been, European country to suddenly endanger the whole continent.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:10
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They said that about the Weimar Republic...
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:17
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We should better guard the baltic states from little green men after the Crimea experience. They would be next without our support. Good to have the US ready to help.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:27
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
The interesting thing is really that Russia seems to believe that NATO poses a threat and does not want to see any state on its border joining NATO if it can help it.

Looked at logically this seems perverse - NATO isn't a threat to the Russian Federation itself at all, and never has been, at least since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I believe that the government of the RF have made it seem that NATO is a threat, to the population of the RF, for reasons that have nothing to do with any possible threat to it as a state. Russia wishes to continue to work with, and manipulate, other states, for its own political and economic reasons, and sees NATO as a threat to those expansionist policies, but rather than openly state this it dresses it up as if NATO is about to launch a pre-emptive attack on Russia itself..
Russia has been invaded by the West 3 times in 100 years...............
WW1
Russian Civil War
WW2

The sum total of people who have died as a result of that is 30 Million plus dead ............... irrespective of who killed them.

Now if you are to judge history as the starting element would you not have a similar view that West will do so again ?

Actions of West since WW2 has shown a complete willingness to Invade and Destroy countrys, irrespective of the
casualties on the people.................. people question are we next if we oppose NATO (i.e. US policy).

USSR is dead, it died almost 30 years ago.

NATO's existence in its set up was as a counter to Warsaw pact, when Warsaw Pact ceased to be then NATO's existence as a counter weight should have ceased.
Instead of pulling back it sought to expand right up to Russian borders, irrespective of a US President's word.

Now Russians believed word of US President that it would not expand eastwards, but since then numerous US Politicians have said either
"It wasn't his word",
"US not committed to whatever a previous President said",
"It wasn't a real commitment and Russians knew this"
So basically left with a "You cannot trust United States to keep to its word" in the eyes of Russians.

Russian did what it said it would, pulled Russian troops out of countrys, pulled them away from its borders yet again and again it gets
labelled as an enemy, a threat.

Even though its miltary 10 years ago would have been incapable of putting up much of a fight it gets labelled as an enemy.

The idea that Russian hackers stole the election is laughable, after 2 years and massive amounts of $$ spent the US police
and Intelligence services have found zilch, aside from a dossier written by a member of British Intelligence supplied with data
from a lot of supposedly anti Putin oligarchs in London.
They became anti Putin when the billions they stole got questioned but NOT by the supposed West's moral and complex rules
on question where people's wealth came from.

The idea of thousands of Russian hackers is laughable................ West is streets ahead in this as Snowden and Wikileaks
show with primarily US companies leading the way in software development.
Often with CIA or other US Defense industry seed capital.
If Russia was so great at it, then Silicon valley has been ripping of people for decades in its software protection scam, don't
notice any offering Feds a refund.

In addition it would show that Western Intelligence agencies were completly incompetent in their inability of protecting the countrys
that pay them Billions a year, however if you keep talking of a threat the gravy train continues.

In recent weeks we have had
US Energy Secretary Ryan Zinke proclaiming that US will use USN to stop Russian's energy exports getting to markets.
UK proclaiming it intends to carry out Cyber attacks on Moscow
US warning countrys that Russia will use Energy as a weapon
Sanctions imposed on people and countrys because they bought Russian rather than US Arms.

US Govt is bankrupt................. its debt is 112% of GDP and soon it will be paying more in Interest for this Debt than it spends on Defense.

China, Russia and others are moving away from using US$ in trading exports.............. that is the biggest risk because less $$$ around then less $$$ to buy US Foreign Debt.

US needs an enery to justify spending billions on its Defense Industry, it forgets it was warned about this decades ago about allowing Military Industrial Complex by Eisenhower.

So in answer to the question "Should we be scared of Russia"..................... only if you continue to poke the bear looking for a response.

I forecast in next 2 years there will be a major Wheat "parasite / disease" issue in Russia that destroys crops.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:29
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When 'Yuri Russian' (or whatever their equivalent of 'Johnny English' is!)
The Germans in WWII called him Ivan.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 12:56
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Russia should not fight the west out of cold war habit as it's true big competitor sits right next to it's east.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 13:43
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Racedo: Spot on! One bit extra you might add to the history, beyond the invasions of Russia by the West: Russia has never invaded anybody else's territory. (Now, now, you lot in the cheap seats; Russia never invaded Afghanistan; they were invited in. It doesn't matter whether or not you liked the then Afghan President, it doesn't alter the fact).
VP959:
NATO isn't a threat to the Russian Federation itself at all, and never has been, at least since the collapse of the Soviet Union. I believe that the government of the RF have made it seem that NATO is a threat, to the population of the RF, for reasons that have nothing to do with any possible threat to it as a state. Russia wishes to continue to work with, and manipulate, other states, for its own political and economic reasons, and sees NATO as a threat to those expansionist policies, but rather than openly state this it dresses it up as if NATO is about to launch a pre-emptive attack on Russia itself.
Do you really think so? Why is NATO, and the UK in particular, constantly ramping up forces in those countries bordering Russia? NATO's Enhanced Forward Presence has thousands of troops, armour, aircraft etc deployed to Poland, Estonia, Latvia & Lithuania. The UK even has a sizable number of troops training Ukrainian forces in Ukraine itself. Despite the fact that the whole Ukrainian mess was sod all to do with Russia. It was engineered by the anti-communists and was a typical "false flag" operation. For the doubters: Google Catherine Ashton and the Estonian Foreign Minister. There is a recording of a phone call during which this is discussed, with the Estonian F.M. expressing something like regret over how the killing began.
Now let's contrast and compare two ongoing stories:
1. Sergei Skripal
2. Jamal Kashoggi.
#1 gets the anti Russian hysteria treatment with everybody except me getting the blame for that!
#2 Hardly merits a mention and I have not yet seen anything relative to this on Jet Blast. Quick precis: Jamal Kashoggi is a Saudi exile who has criticised the Saudi King. He went into the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul to have a piece of paper legalised. And he was never seen again! The Turkish President is so far avoiding saying he has been murdered but, significantly, he is not stopping the press in Turkey from saying this man was killed in the Embassy, butchered and the body parts smuggled out in diplomatic bags. Possibly in the 2 biz jets that arrived the day after he went missing and returned to Riyash the following day. Who knows?
The point though is that this appears to be a Saudi citizen allegedly having come to harm at the hands of a government yet there is not a peep of the Skripal style outrage here, in the mainstream media or elsewhere.
Now, I wonder why that may be?
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:00
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Devil

Russia has never invaded anywhere apparently...

Soviet and Russian Invasions since 1917
Table of Contents
What is a Soviet and Russian invasion?
But, what about US invasions?
Countries invaded by Soviet Russia/Soviet Union/Russian Federation
Estonia 1917
Latvia 1918
Lithuania 1918
Finland 1918
Poland 1918
Belarus 1918
Ukraine 1918
Georgia 1920
Azerbaijan 1920
Armenia 1920
Moldova 1918
Central Asia 1918
Mongolia 1921
Georgia 1924
Estonia 1924
Afghanistan 1929
China 1929
Japan 1938
Poland 1939
Finland 1939
Estonia 1940
Latvia 1940
Lithuania 1940
Romania 1940
Iran 1942
Ukraine and Belarus 1944
Bulgaria 1944
Hungary 1944
Yugoslavia 1944
Albania 1944
Poland 1944
The Baltic States 1944
Germany 1944
Tuva 1944
Japan 1945
China 1945
Korea 1950
East Germany 1953
Hungary 1956
Vietnam 1960
Czechoslovakia 1968
China 1969
Israel 1969
Ethiopia 1974
Angola 1975
Afghanistan 1979
Georgia 1989
Baltic States 1990
Georgia 1991
Azerbaijan 1991
Moldova 1992
Tajikistan 1992
Northern Caucasus 1992
Georgia 2008
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:20
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Originally Posted by Out Of Trim View Post
Russia has never invaded anywhere apparently...

Soviet and Russian Invasions since 1917
Table of Contents
What is a Soviet and Russian invasion?
But, what about US invasions?
Countries invaded by Soviet Russia/Soviet Union/Russian Federation
Estonia 1917
Latvia 1918
Lithuania 1918
Finland 1918
Poland 1918
Belarus 1918
Ukraine 1918
Georgia 1920
Azerbaijan 1920
Armenia 1920
Moldova 1918
Central Asia 1918
Mongolia 1921
Georgia 1924
Estonia 1924
Afghanistan 1929
China 1929
Japan 1938
Poland 1939
Finland 1939
Estonia 1940
Latvia 1940
Lithuania 1940
Romania 1940
Iran 1942
Ukraine and Belarus 1944
Bulgaria 1944
Hungary 1944
Yugoslavia 1944
Albania 1944
Poland 1944
The Baltic States 1944
Germany 1944
Tuva 1944
Japan 1945
China 1945
Korea 1950
East Germany 1953
Hungary 1956
Vietnam 1960
Czechoslovakia 1968
China 1969
Israel 1969
Ethiopia 1974
Angola 1975
Afghanistan 1979
Georgia 1989
Baltic States 1990
Georgia 1991
Azerbaijan 1991
Moldova 1992
Tajikistan 1992
Northern Caucasus 1992
Georgia 2008
Ukraine 2014
Syria 2015
Well let's pull rather silly long list apart shall we?

Syria? Invited in by the Syrian state. Afghanistan, Angola, all of the Eastern Bloc European countries after the Iron Curtain came down likewise. I'll give you Czechoslovakia (1968) and Hungary (1956) though again history will show that the recognised governments also invited them in then. "Double counties the Baltic States hardly qualifies since none of them were invaded after they declared independence. To be honest I really can't be bothered to debunk any more of these. Talk of fake news!!!

No let's think about the USA / NATO:-

Iraq (Twice)
Libya
Greneda
Nicaragua
Most of the current British Commonwealth nations (by the British Empire) Can't imagine many of the tribal leaders being asked their permission to annexe their lands
Cuba (Didn't end very well, that one)
Somalia (Clandestine raid with disastrous consequences)

Without searching wiki I can't come up with too many more.

Facts are that the global power players have all been pretty good at invading other weaker countries, and assisting those witthin what they consider to be their "sphere of influence" for centuries.

It is however absolutely true that Russia has been invaded by land armies 3 times with horrendous consequences over the last 100 years, the USA? Nil. The UK - if you exclude the Channel Islands, Nil. Russia has long been paranoid about being invaded again and through Soviet and now in recent Russian times the instinct is to be armed and ready against such invasions happening again.

Am I afraid of Russia? More so than I was 12 months ago for sure, but given the choice between Putin and Trump I know who I'd trust to have a level head in a crisis.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:27
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So who would you trust then?
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:32
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"Russia has been invaded by the West 3 times in 100 years..............."

Define "West"....

I think you will find what you call "the West" gave the real "West" a pretty good kicking also.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:38
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"Cuba (Didn't end very well, that one)"

Which time?

Everyone forgets the first one. Doesn't fit the current narrative.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:40
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It's easy to quote stuff selectively. For example, my grandfather was sent to Russia in 1917 as a flying instructor, to teach Russian pilots to fly and fight and his CO died there, just before my grandfather was posted back to France. Over the years the UK has done a fair bit to help Russia, and the Soviet Union, as those who sailed in the Arctic Convoys will attest. The UK hasn't really had any issues with Russia (as distinct from the former Soviet Union), until relatively recently.
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Old 8th Oct 2018, 14:56
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
It's easy to quote stuff selectively. For example, my grandfather was sent to Russia in 1917 as a flying instructor, to teach Russian pilots to fly and fight and his CO died there, just before my grandfather was posted back to France. Over the years the UK has done a fair bit to help Russia, and the Soviet Union, as those who sailed in the Arctic Convoys will attest. The UK hasn't really had any issues with Russia (as distinct from the former Soviet Union), until relatively recently.
At the invite of the government of the day. So not really an "invasion".
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