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On the eve of war

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On the eve of war

Old 2nd Jul 2019, 18:07
  #1381 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Allow me to spell it out. At post 1365, Wingnut stated that the first nation to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East would be Saudi.

I was not entering a debate about who would be the first to use them globally. I was merely stating, in response, that N Korea is not in the Middle East.

If we want to debate who will be the first to use them globally then that probably deserves a thread of its own. This one is about Syria and the Middle East.

A simple ‘sorry’ would suffice.

BV
For the common misunderstanding I do offer my sincere apologies. So far as my intended purpose for initiating the discussion, it was not one of with geographical constraints. Armed conflicts exist most of the time somewhere around the world. I cannot think ever when this was not so, history shows that. Nations have fought, fight now and will continue to do so, within and with others . Unrest ,dissatisfaction and power are often the cause. For some today or tomorrow, may be " The Eve of War ". Some adopt this as a precept and are always in a state of readiness for the morrow. Israel is such. The interesting and worthy discussion would be the question of all these isolated conflicts, fanned by some uncontrollable winds developing into a raging inferno that spans continents. A bit like the phenomena of whether, the wings of a butterfly in one continent causing a storm in another thousands of miles distant.
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Old 2nd Jul 2019, 18:11
  #1382 (permalink)  
 
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Chronus

Apology accepted. Let us all hope that the principle of MAD is enough to dissuade everyone from ever using Nukes.

BV
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Old 2nd Jul 2019, 19:45
  #1383 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Bob Viking View Post
Let us all hope that the principle of MAD is enough to dissuade everyone from ever using Nukes.

BV
I truely believe that Nukes are a threat of the past. People who give up their convictions/beliefs for the fear of death, might just as well be dead.
If you can change people to your liking, there is no need to kill them.
The magic word is: „credibility“.
Now, isn‘t that a challenge?

Last edited by Slow and curious; 3rd Jul 2019 at 20:01.
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Old 4th Jul 2019, 18:00
  #1384 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Slow and curious View Post


I truely believe that Nukes are a threat of the past. People who give up their convictions/beliefs for the fear of death, might just as well be dead.
If you can change people to your liking, there is no need to kill them.
The magic word is: „credibility“.
Now, isn‘t that a challenge?
Second sentence above. Is that not the recipe for all those jihadi warriors. No fear of death, their convictions far stronger than anything. But I do wish they are persuaded to give up their convictions and beliefs, do us all a great service and die. Can we change them to our liking, no I don`t think so, not when they are doing their best to change us to corpses. Why I ask myself are they trying to do that to us all peace loving, apple munching, tree hugging, save the world bunch that we seem to have become. Simply because they want all that we have .
Yes, the word is credible, but it applies in the question, is the threat of war credible.
Is there challenge to world peace, sure there is. What is its form, it is how far and how long can restrain be exercised. Latest news is our Royal Marines have boarded and seized a super tanker suspected of taking Iranian oil to Syria. what sort of stink is that going to cause.
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Old 4th Jul 2019, 18:09
  #1385 (permalink)  
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Chronus,
Second sentence above. Is that not the recipe for all those jihadi warriors. No fear of death, their convictions far stronger than anything.
That might seem the case, however who actually dies for the cause? It isn't the Immans, it isn't the leaders, the preachers of hate. They are not going to press the button and lose their lives.
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Old 5th Jul 2019, 05:04
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A quote from Al Murray would seem appropriate.

"They should all head down to the pub and get some real memories".
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Old 6th Jul 2019, 18:53
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Chronus,
They are not going to press the button and lose their lives.
Because they really don‘t believe in their cause, they don‘t have a life to lose. They simply don‘t exist in the afterworld.
People say, no one ever came back to tell.
Death must be an exciting experience. Still, I’m in no hurry.
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Old 6th Jul 2019, 19:44
  #1388 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
Chronus,

That might seem the case, however who actually dies for the cause? It isn't the Immans, it isn't the leaders, the preachers of hate. They are not going to press the button and lose their lives.
There is a lot of truth in the above. Those who died for the cause are indocrinated with a belief in immortality of the soul. Hate is a sentiment necessary to encourage the masses to kill another human being.

The preachers of hatred imbue in their followers an ideology, starting with a common foe who stands against who they are, what their culture, race and faith is. From which they then are led on the virtuous path of destroying their enemy through self sacrifice, the greatest act for redemption of all sin and victory against the foe. These are not mere ordinary soldiers, they are warriors of the faith, recruited not by common conscription, but through a much greater call, that of their faith.

These people go about their daily business, whatever that may be, but they remain at all times at war, ready to turn some other person going about his/her business today, into their Eve of War. We call them terrorists, they call themselves soldiers of their faith.

The preachers of hatred are alike the Greek mythical Hydra. . I look all around me and cannot see a Heracles anywhere.
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Old 7th Jul 2019, 05:34
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Originally Posted by racedo View Post
Nope

It will be the Saudi's, Israel is a lot of things but it is not mad, there is rational thought. Saudi's not shown any ever.
Nope, your understanding of Jews, especially post WWII is lacking.

it’ll be Israel, concerned the future of state is in question.
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Old 7th Jul 2019, 19:28
  #1390 (permalink)  
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In the interim, Iran is about to turn the heat up a notch or two in brewing up a pot or two of uranium for more than lighting up a few street lamps, TV`s and charging up i phones, pads and things.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 00:50
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Originally Posted by Chronus View Post
In the interim, Iran is about to turn the heat up a notch or two in brewing up a pot or two of uranium for more than lighting up a few street lamps, TV`s and charging up i phones, pads and things.
Yup and just to draw some attention to their plight they are announcing a lighting of a slow burning fuse to a hidden atom bomb somewhere just to see who intends to put it out first among the rest of the world.
Meanwhile they have placed a just-in-case bucket of water nearby for their use if we pay them a few billion dollars for it.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 02:02
  #1392 (permalink)  
 
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I realize that my position is unpopular, but I honestly don't care if Iran gets "the bomb" or not.
Look at the neighborhood they live in, and who their friends are or are not.
India has the bomb
Pakistan has the bomb
Saudis might have a bomb (rumors of the Pakistanis having some for them run amok, no idea at the truth of it)
Israelis have the bomb.
Russians have the bomb.
Turkey, while they don't have the bomb, are still in an alliance that "has the bomb" though I doubt a launch order from Brussels would ever happen.

Do you blame them for deciding that they need one also?

Given the deterrent effect that the North Korean bomb appears to have had (though I think the real deterrent in that case is called China) Iran would certainly be rational actors in their pursuit of such.
And if that helps them light a few street lamps along the way, all the better. It'll reduce the carbon footprint for global warming, so win win.
Right?
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 08:59
  #1393 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
I realize that my position is unpopular, but I honestly don't care if Iran gets "the bomb" or not.
Look at the neighborhood they live in, and who their friends are or are not.
India has the bomb
Pakistan has the bomb
Saudis might have a bomb (rumors of the Pakistanis having some for them run amok, no idea at the truth of it)
Israelis have the bomb.
Russians have the bomb.
Turkey, while they don't have the bomb, are still in an alliance that "has the bomb" though I doubt a launch order from Brussels would ever happen.

Do you blame them for deciding that they need one also?

Given the deterrent effect that the North Korean bomb appears to have had (though I think the real deterrent in that case is called China) Iran would certainly be rational actors in their pursuit of such.
And if that helps them light a few street lamps along the way, all the better. It'll reduce the carbon footprint for global warming, so win win.
Right?
@Lonewolf
I do not find your position to be at all unpopular but rather quite realistic. I know that you are using the phrase "rational actor" with exactitude here and are framing your thoughts independent of any one politician.

That does not mean we delight in seeing more countries, especially in the ME, obtain such weaponry, but it is what a rational actor would do. It is almost at the level of cliche now that a country such as Iran would look at North Korea and realize that having the bomb affords a certain street cred.

What I find lazy in many of these discussions regarding Iran and a bomb (not your post btw) is that they would develop it (and they are some steps from that) and then immediately use it against Israel or threaten that state in order to gain some type of concession.

I find that to be both lazy and histronic thinking. They would develop a bomb so as to commit suicide? Sorry, but this argument is going to have to be framed better in order for me to buy it.

Either way, your emphasis on what course a rational actor would do gives a good context. For those who would jump onto this and say the mullahs are part of an ideology that is irrational, that is not what is meant here. Rational actor has a specific meaning in scenarios such as this.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 13:24
  #1394 (permalink)  
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Bob

Allow me to spell it out. At post 1365, Wingnut stated that the first nation to use nuclear weapons in the Middle East would be Saudi.
Have another look at that post Bob

The first nation in the M-E to use the nuclear option will be the Israelis
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 14:28
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Thanks for dredging that up. You’re absolutely correct. I misquoted. It doesn’t change the thrust of my post though.

However you look at it, North Korea most definitely is NOT in the Middle East.

BV
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 14:44
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Originally Posted by Uncle Fred View Post
Either way, your emphasis on what course a rational actor would do gives a good context. For those who would jump onto this and say the mullahs are part of an ideology that is irrational, that is not what is meant here. Rational actor has a specific meaning in scenarios such as this.
While I do not find the ideology of the mullah's to my taste, I do not delude myself into thinking that they are not rational people.
They simply have a method and belief system that is in oppposition to my own. They used a form of populism to get in to power in to the late 70's and have successfully sustained their position.
That's the realpolitik take on their situation.
(Years back we had a strategy course that compared the American, French, Russian and Iranian revolutions for similarities and differences. It was one of the better courses I've ever taken).
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 18:23
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There is yet another rationale, that is of not who has it but who may be trusted with it. Trust in this sense would mean having all the necessary safety and security measures and apparatus to ensure it does not fall into the hands of fruit cakes with suicidal tendencies and a stable political system and government. These are a must of joining the elite of nations with nuclear war fare capability. In addition the bearer of such nuclear arsenals must also demonstrate they are not dependent on UPS, TNT, DHL and the like for delivering their fireworks to the consignees.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 19:59
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Good luck with that. The trend is not good.

Do you trust any non-western nuke power to behave rationally? How stable are any of them really? Or volatile?
Look at their histories, plus the terrorist component and project a timeline.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 18:15
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Despite US warnings of sanctions, the first group of the S-400 air defense system arrived in Turkey today. The US had already stopped training Turkish pilots on the F-35, and given until end of July for Turkey to get its personnel out of the U.S.

With tensions in the Straights of Hormuz now escalating rapidly, any further sanctions against the Turks will add to the complex situation in the region.
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Old 12th Jul 2019, 18:44
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
Good luck with that. The trend is not good.

Do you trust any non-western nuke power to behave rationally? How stable are any of them really? Or volatile?
Look at their histories, plus the terrorist component and project a timeline.
This is what I have issues with.

Rationally the west would not be supporting Genocide in Yemen. Where the Saudi's have to use mercs, many underage from Sudan to do their fighting, while the Saudi's in the rear direct and their much vaunted air force require massive western assistance to fuel, arm and target civilian areas. However it does, continually justifies it knowing fully what it is supporting and its effect.

We assume that said Western powers will behave rationally with Nukes when it has stood by and allowed open genocide to occur.

Western powers went into Iraq and destroyed it on a fabricated lie, they knew exactly what they were doing. The death toll from imposed sanctions, war in Iraq and the afternath both in Iraq and the people who fought there will still be around in 40 years time. I see no rationality.

Western powers would use a Nuke to serve their interests IF the situation ever requires it, someone will one day cross the rubicon at which point they will be used regularly, it could be a rogue military leader and it is not just someone else who has them. McArthur would have if he could have.

The much vaunted "Moral" position of the west is very hollow when they happily will supply arms to whomever. The body count is irrelevant because Arms dealing makes money and the money gets funnelled back into election campaigns.

In the Russia / China border war the Russians made it very clear that next step was going to Nuclear weapons to defend its territory, I don't see them having changed that stance because losing 27 Million in WW2 means you understand what you can lose.

I can understand the difficulty in trusting the west when it wants Military bases everywhere, surely it should be the other way.
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