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Jerusalem - Middle East Hamster Wheel.

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Jerusalem - Middle East Hamster Wheel.

Old 7th Dec 2017, 19:56
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Jerusalem - Middle East Hamster Wheel.

An attempt by Trump to unite the two factions? - or a move to stir up things in the Middle East?
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 20:10
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Wont make a blind bit of difference where the Embassy is.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 20:17
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The BBC are reporting that his speech contained “five key takeaways”.

It might be KFC, or even a dodgy kebab: but I’ve listened very carefully, and I can’t spot any food anywhere.....
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 20:36
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Trump is merely keeping a campaign promise to the Bible thumpers (and some pro-Israeli settlement hardliners) that put him into orifice. This is a shoot-from-the-hip decision, not unlike, apparently, most of his decisions, where rational thought and input from learned professionals is again, apparently, considered a waste of time.

G-CPTN, no disrespect intended towards you whatsoever... "Unite" is not a term that comes to mind when describing Trump's campaign, his persona, nor his divisive and combative administration.

A little recent history: A Jerusalem embassy has been part of official US policy since a 1995 law from Congress was passed, but subsequent US presidents, with actual diplomatic skills and knowledge of our Constitution, have kicked that can (IED?, Suicide bomber?, Can of BioAgent number 666?) down the road, until now.

The Constitutional aspects are obvious and spelled out in the plain language of Separation of Powers and within Article II. The powers bestowed upon the Executive here are both explicit and implicit.

Congress was attempting to usurp the Constitutional powers of the Executive's right to manage and implement US foreign policy. Within the diplomatic aspect, there is of course, some nuance and if we've learned one thing about this president, aside from his proclivity towards lying, nuance is not a quality he holds within his personal skill set.

Last edited by vapilot2004; 7th Dec 2017 at 20:53. Reason: plural where none was required
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 20:39
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I suspect that there will be a bit of a fuss for a while, the US embassy probably won't move to Jerusalem during Trump's time in office, there will be a lot of stalling about finding a location, approving funding, etc and in a few years time the US Embassy will still be in Tel Aviv.

Meanwhile, every Palestinian-supporting nation in the ME will be pissed off and more anti-US than they are already, the diplomatic relationships between the US and many of it's key allies will become a bit more strained than they already are for time.

Overall, I suspect this bit of shit-stirring won't achieve anything positive, and might well end up making the situation worse.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 20:47
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The embassy won't be built for years unless they have a pre-cleared site picked out. The archelogical considerations alone are monumental in that city.


Trump's negotiators over there (Jared, Donny jr.?) reported back that the Palestinians do not negotiate in good faith (never have), lie and stall and their ultimate goals have not changed from your garden run genocide and cultural extermination. Trump decided to hell with this and sent the ME a wakeup call.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:01
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Ahhh religion, an indoctrinated hatred of your fellow man and as with racism, no child is born hating one another, It is a state of mind taught to them by their elders.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:01
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Trump decided to hell with this and sent the ME a wakeup call.
There are some learned folks in the realm of International Relations that suggest an impetuous hardliner/rabble rouser (bad cop) like Trump, followed by a more thoughtful dove-like administration (good cop) could "reset" US relations in some of the worst politically troubled parts of the globe, putting some bad actors "on notice".

That "reset" comes with great risk, however, and, aside from threats of blocking access to the gooey black stuff that flows freely there, the potential powder keg of violence is the primary reason behind what some describe as our ongoing two-faced stance in the Middle East.

Of course, there is also the risk that a US foreign policy flip-flop the above scenario would create has the potential to further isolate the United States as a nation that cannot be trusted to keep her course steady and words true. We've witnessed the results of such a scenario with the Bush 43 and Obama administration's unwieldy conglomeration of foreign policy safaris.

Last edited by vapilot2004; 7th Dec 2017 at 21:15. Reason: Added 43 and 44 references
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:08
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Originally Posted by vapilot2004 View Post
That "reset" comes with great risk, however, and, aside from threats of blocking access to the gooey black stuff that flows freely there, the potential powder keg of violence is the primary reason behind what some describe as our ongoing two-faced stance in the Middle East.
Since the oil money's going to run out soon and the Middle East in its current form will collapse into widespread war when that happens, there's little risk in trying to improve the situation there beforehand. At worst, the war comes a little earlier than it would have otherwise.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:18
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The archelogical considerations alone are monumental in that city.
Yeah, but it's got a lovely wall.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:23
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Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
Trump's negotiators over there (Jared, Donny jr.?) reported back that the Palestinians do not negotiate in good faith (never have), lie and stall and their ultimate goals have not changed from your garden run genocide and cultural extermination.
That's all very true. 100% accurate.

But you know what?
If you change 'Palestinians' to 'Israelis' it will still be 100% true.

The only difference is that the Israelis are very much nearer to achieving their goal than are the Palestinians.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:30
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Originally Posted by MG23 View Post
Since the oil money's going to run out soon and the Middle East in its current form will collapse into widespread war when that happens, there's little risk in trying to improve the situation there beforehand. At worst, the war comes a little earlier than it would have otherwise.
"Soon", being the relative term that it is, I would imagine most, aside from Big Oil, their investors, and their minions, would not welcome more conflict in the region in the coming decades of post "peak oil".

there's little risk in trying to improve the situation
How does poisoning the well of diplomacy improve anything?

Recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel comes with recognizing the settlements and the current apartheid situation that exists there now between the Palestinians and Israelis. Any further pressure upon the powder keg of hardline stances cannot end well and the only way it would "end" is if Israel pummels her Arab neighbors into submission. That ain't gonna be a pretty picture for Israel or the West to live in moving forward.

If you change 'Palestinians' to 'Israelis' it will still be 100% true.
Good g-d, Sallyann, would you kindly refrain from sharing your overly simplistic and realistic viewpoints? There's no room for that kind of talk here.

I do generally agree with your statement, however genocide and cultural extermination are not equally pursued here. One side's execution is by design, the other, an unfortunate and unintended consequence of collateral damage.

The two may be considered classic examples of the difference between an entrenched "enemy's" actions and those pursued by a Western-aligned government.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:34
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If "A" and "B" are in stalemate, give one an advantage. Entropy takes over. There is no downside to recognizing the holy city as capital, none. The only people criticizing this move are partisans. Think about it.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 21:58
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As usual, lots of tripe for sale here.

First, the country gets to decide its capital, not outside countries. Saying the US recognizes Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is as silly as the US recognizes London as the UK capital. Jerusalem is the Israeli capital because they said it was.

Second, it’s West Jerusalem that’s the capital, it has always been Israeli since the founding of the state. It is Jewish, by wide majority and no one, even the Palestinians, aren’t arguing the fact.

Third, the Palestinians need to face reality. They’ve been offered numerous settlements and rejected every one as they live in the fantasy of throwing the Israelis into the sea, as Al-Ashraf Khalil of the Mamelukes did in the 13th century.

We might remember the more recent history when Jordanians and Palestinians occupied Jerusalem and desecrated Jewish holy sites and refused access to other religions.

GF
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:05
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"Deciding" and "recognizing" are two different actions. One is internal, the other, external.

Fomenting conflict, on the other (bloody) hand, exists in both realms.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:06
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Originally Posted by vapilot2004 View Post
"
Good g-d, Sallyann, would you kindly refrain from sharing your overly simplistic and realistic viewpoints? There's no room for that kind of talk here.

I do generally agree with your statement, however genocide and cultural extermination are not equally pursued here. One side's execution is by design, the other, an unfortunate and unintended consequence of collateral damage.

The two may be considered classic examples of the difference between an entrenched "enemy's" actions and those pursued by a Western-aligned government.
I make no judgement of which side is right or wrong, only that by reference to the changing map of the region it is quite clear which side is winning.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:06
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True g f.
However half his, half theirs, as a capital city is an instability that cannot exist in nature.
Know of any other national capitals shared by such fervent opposites in so many ways?
It's the hate that has to be dealt with one way or another and I don't expect a group hug at anytime.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:13
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The only difference is that the Israelis are very much nearer to achieving their goal than are the Palestinians.
The other difference is that Palestinians in Palestinian Jerusalem don't have guns and Israelis do.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:15
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
I make no judgement of which side is right or wrong, only that by reference to the changing map of the region it is quite clear which side is winning.
Cannot argue with that either, Sallyann.

Originally Posted by meadowrun View Post
Know of any other national capitals shared by such fervent opposites in so many ways?
Berlin, circa the Cold War era was the capital de jur for West Germany and the de facto capital for East Germany.

It's the hate that has to be dealt with one way or another and I don't expect a group hug at anytime.
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Old 7th Dec 2017, 22:32
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If the Yanks build their new Embassy on the dividing line between East and West Jerusalem they wouldn't need a new one if/when a Palestinian State is created -just a different door at each end of the building..

Just my contribution to balancing the budget..
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