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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:18
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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

The latest from our UK govt is that we are not going to be able to buy new petrol / diesel cars after 2040 as by that time we will be all running on electric. Now this may not worry me as there is a fair chance that I maybe long gone, however a simple question to those in the know. Where is all this generating power going to come from to power this utopia, given that it takes years to get a power station built of anytype in the UK.


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Mr Mac
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:22
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Governments of all types will come and go between now and 2040 but it does seem that this present lot have a death wish.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:33
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you may have noticed the other news item about how we're all going to generate our own power and then sell it to the country who will fund research into new storage methods.

So that will be a battery pack on my back lawn the size of a house?

Electricity shake-up could save consumers 'up to 40bn' - BBC News
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:42
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23 years is a very long time, and I believe battery technology, along with energy storage and generation will change radically between now and then.

However the UK can't be "Billy no mates" in implementing this policy, and so far only France has come forward with a similar plan. Imagine post 2040 you've bought a new car, and decide you want to drive across Europe, only to find that because only some nations have gone down the all electric path, they'll be places with inadequate charging facilities - and also it would be a good idea to ensure that there is a common standard at least around Europe, preferably worldwide for charging plugs, power supplies and the like. We don't need to be carrying half a dozen different adaptors!

Whether the government will ensure to put adequate infrastructure in nationwide (not just London!) before the deadline heaven only knows. Our track record on that kind of thing is lamentable, and if it's left up to "the market" it will likely fail, as mobile coverage and broadband has in recent years.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:43
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Like Mr Mac, I don't expect to be concerned by then, however, I have doubts whether people who live in inner-urban areas where they have to park on streets (and not close to their dwelling) will have the facility to charge their vehicle.

When you consider the 'fight' some people have to find somewhere to leave their vehicle when they are not using it (and, no doubt, vehicle numbers will increase - not to mention numbers per household) I really cannot see the infrastructure being possible to charge them.

Liquid-fuelled vehicles take less than ten minutes to refuel every ten days or so, whilst electric vehicles currently need charging for hours each day (at present).

Consider the struggle that smart-phone users have to keep their devices charged.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:52
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Better start building some power generation then.

Assumptions:
1. No growth in car numbers from 2016 (yeah right) there are 31.7 million cars to replace.
2. Motors / batteries will double in efficiency so instead of the 10kWh it currently takes to travel 100km now it will only be 5kWh in 2040
3. Every car will travel 50km/day
4. Every car will have a range of 300km and therefore will have to re-charge every 6 days
5. They do not all recharge on the same day but are equally spread so there will only be 1/6th of the total vehicles recharging on any given day

This will result in a daily requirement of 13.21GW.

Current generation demand is 33.36GW as @ 09:43 G. B. National Grid status

NB this includes 2GW from France and 1GW from The Netherlands!

So as a rough guesstimate we need to add approx. 15GW capacity to our generation just to charge cars......

At 6MW apiece we will only need 2,200 of these http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencete...wind-farm.html IF they work at full rated capacity 24/7. If they work at the current 40% https://www.theguardian.com/politics...dfarms-useless then we will need 5,503.....

Last edited by LowNSlow; 26th Jul 2017 at 09:04.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 08:53
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All new homes and commercial buildings built from 2019 onwards are required to be fitted with electric vehicle charging points. The design is intended that at peak times the battery charge in a connected car can be fed back into the grid and then recharged during the night.

The government has already passed regulations allowing companies a 100% tax rebate for the cost of installing EV charging points in the car parking areas.

However, the cost in fitting chargers in all the streets in London, for example, will be incredible. I heard one forecast on the radio this morning of 1T. Dividing that over 20 years gives a cost of 50B a year.

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/art...tric-vehicles/

https://www.theguardian.com/sustaina...europe-renault

Last edited by ORAC; 26th Jul 2017 at 09:13.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:11
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ORAC that is an EU directive regarding the fitting of charge points to new and refurbished houses that is expected to come into effect in 2019 thus affecting all properties built / refurbished post 2019 I assume.

They did comment that Europe could need up to 50 new power stations.....
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:13
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How will the Gov't replace all the tax they gain from fuel at the moment?
Will all HGV vehicles be electric? If not then diesel will still need to be produced and sold.

While I see a future where electric is a large part of the solution, I don't see the infrastructure in place, or likely to be in place, to support this in just 23 years.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:15
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Yes, but the UK is planning to implement all such regulations into UK law in the "great repeal bill", and I cannot envisage it is one of those they later plan to change or remove.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:21
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How will they replace the fuel tax? By charging for road use by the mile.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:22
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Originally Posted by LowNSlow View Post
Better start building some power generation then.

Assumptions:
1. No growth in car numbers from 2016 (yeah right) there are 31.7 million cars to replace.
2. Motors / batteries will double in efficiency so instead of the 10kWh it currently takes to travel 100km now it will only be 5kWh in 2040
3. Every car will travel 50km/day
4. Every car will have a range of 300km and therefore will have to re-charge every 6 days
5. They do not all recharge on the same day but are equally spread so there will only be 1/6th of the total vehicles recharging on any given day

This will result in a daily requirement of 13.21GW.

Current generation demand is 33.36GW as @ 09:43 G. B. National Grid status

NB this includes 2GW from France and 1GW from The Netherlands!

So as a rough guesstimate we need to add approx. 15GW capacity to our generation just to charge cars......
You can add to that demand..

1. The energy requirements of electrically powered buses and trucks (or are they to be excluded from the legislation?)

2. The energy requirements of HS2 and other electrified railways.

Another point. There is discussion elsewhere about possible resource limitations for lithium batteries. What about copper? We'll need a whole new distribution system to supply heavy current recharging points along every suburban street and every car park bay. That's in addition to the enhanced national grid feeding them from the new (!) generating stations.

Presumably every other developed country will be doing the same. Is there a sufficient world source of copper for all the cables? I understand that China has been busy buying up copper mines in Africa and South America.

Legislation for a 2040 limit looks like generating (pun intended) a huge problem for the next generation.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:23
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What about driving wider than within the UK and Europe?

How will you drive across Australia? - not to mention Africa . . .
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:24
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The design is intended that at peak times the battery charge in a connected car can be fed back into the grid and then recharged during the night.

So if you want to use your car for the first time in days, after the peak time, the battery may be flat. What sort of deranged wukfit dreamed that one up ? They probably work in HR.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:36
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Fraser, it's known as Vehicle to Grid (V2G) and has already been trialled in 3 European cities - one of which was Birmingham.

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...newable-energy


https://www.cleanenergynews.co.uk/ne...ogy-trial-5722


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:38
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They probably work in HR.
No, in the EU Beurocracy.

Sally - we can use aluminium in place of copper, it is only slightly higher resistance and is already in use in some places.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:40
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
How will they replace the fuel tax? By charging for road use by the mile.
ORAC,

Agreed, but I understood the reason we have a VED at the moment, rather than the simplest way of putting the tax on fuel, is to ease the cost of those who would pay more due to high mileages.

I am sure those people who 'tootle' down to the shops a couple of times every week will be quite happy.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:41
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Notice that there is no proposal for heavy lorries.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:45
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Originally Posted by UniFoxOs View Post
Sally - we can use aluminium in place of copper, it is only slightly higher resistance and is already in use in some places.
And how do they smelt aluminium?

We used to have an aluminium production facility in Northumberland that was immediately next-to a power station - which was immediately next to a coal mine.

All gone now:-
One tonne of aluminium requires the same amount of electricity that an average family uses in 20 years.
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Old 26th Jul 2017, 09:46
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No reason it has to be a flat charge, the winner of the latest Wolfson Prize was on the proposal. You can give an annual allowance of say 3K for OAPs nipping to the shops; charge diesels far more on a pollution sliding scale; set a maximum cost per annum for private cars etc etc.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...conomics-prize
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