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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

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No new Diesel or Petrol cars after 2040 in UK

Old 9th Oct 2020, 18:04
  #741 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ETOPS View Post
fltlt


This recent article suggests battery degradation isn't a huge factor.

https://electrek.co/2020/09/26/tesla...y-degradation/

radeng



In the UK it will be from the normal generator systems via the national grid - at night. Take a look at the huge difference between electricity demand, starting in the morning, and the evening peak as opposed to the post midnight slump in demand. Overnight EV charging is the generators dream allowing the production of power to be smoothed leading to better efficiency and the ability to form thousands of vehicles into a vast virtual power station. The combination of grid balancing and V2G power reserves will transform the costs of electricty in the UK.
Be interesting to see how the Govt handles all the current taxes on fossil fuels, just transfer them straight across to electricity bills, if so, only on the power used to charge the vehicle, or a general across the board increase.
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Old 9th Oct 2020, 18:21
  #742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fltlt View Post
Be interesting to see how the Govt handles all the current taxes on fossil fuels, just transfer them straight across to electricity bills, if so, only on the power used to charge the vehicle, or a general across the board increase.
with GPS. Live road tolls. The busier the road the more you pay.
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Old 17th Oct 2020, 21:00
  #743 (permalink)  
 
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We have just returned from a very last minute 7 day break on Skye.
Seen at Uig (Idrigil) Ferry Terminal - after last ferry of the day has disembarked all of the vehicles and the village has reverted to tumbleweed status (ie all the tourist cars have departed south) - parked 'patiently' at the Electric Car Charging station is one electric car sitting like Billy No Mates waiting for its wee battery to charge up - with a very bored looking middle aged couple sitting in the car reading.So that worked well - nice holiday on the Hebrides - a couple of hours on the ferry and then having to wait 30 mins to charge the car whilst all the drivers with old fashioned cars are already on the road south of portree

Talking of Portree - the long term car park is currently undergoing major surgery whilst having (I assume) many elec car charge points installed at great expense,another 'electric highway' winner for the Fishwifeys Dream Electric Highway (nightmare).Oh well I never liked Portree that much anyway and it looks like parking may be a problem in the future for those of us with devil diesels.

Our Devil Diesel (2008 Sportage) passed MOT again last week (50 quid total bill),filled her up friday night and drove up to skye next morning - ran around all week and filled up again near Portree this morning on the way out,came home the long way round (via Applecross,Aultbea,Inverness) and still got half a tank of fuel.

Last edited by longer ron; 17th Oct 2020 at 22:03. Reason: speling
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 10:33
  #744 (permalink)  
 
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Quote from here: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54634802

But if a car crashes and some of those cells are damaged, the chemicals inside can generate huge of amounts of heat, damaging and igniting other cells.

"An electric vehicle will burn for much longer than an internal combustion vehicle. They give off potentially explosive and toxic fumes. They can reignite hours, days or weeks after the incident," says Prof Christensen.

Electric cars are still relatively rare on the roads, but that will change in the coming years.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 10:51
  #745 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
Quote from here: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54634802

But if a car crashes and some of those cells are damaged, the chemicals inside can generate huge of amounts of heat, damaging and igniting other cells.

"An electric vehicle will burn for much longer than an internal combustion vehicle. They give off potentially explosive and toxic fumes. They can reignite hours, days or weeks after the incident," says Prof Christensen.

Electric cars are still relatively rare on the roads, but that will change in the coming years.
EVs, by necessity, have battery packs that are very well engineered, as much of the performance and value is in the battery pack. On the other hand, consumer devices are always built right down to a rock bottom price, and hundreds of millions of them contain lithium cells. I've just done a quick tally around the house, and we have a couple of dozen devices with lithium cells in, including some tucked away in drawers and no longer used.

Just looking around my desk, there's a laptop, two torches, two phones (one an old Nokia that's dead), an Android tablet, a camera (with two spare lithium battery packs), a power bank for recharging phones when away, my old car dash cam in a drawer, and an iPad with a broken screen, waiting for me to get around to fixing it. I doubt that our home is unusual, if anything we probably have a lot less gadgets than some, yet the incidence of lithium battery fires seems to be very low. There are probably tens of millions of devices containing lithium cells in the UK alone, many of them in discarded devices lying around in drawers. When we moved house a few years ago, I found two old mobile phones up in the loft, one an old analogue one from the early 1990's. Both had lithium cells, and had been sat up there for around 20 years, being temperature cycled summer and winter over a fairly wide range.

There's certainly a risk, as there is with everything, the question is really how big a risk is it? The evidence of decades of lithium cell use and abuse seems to suggest that the probability of one spontaneously combusting is pretty low.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 11:46
  #746 (permalink)  
 
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Towards the end of the article, the Prof was talking more about his experiments in doing deliberate damage to lithium cells, and how he fears the number of car crashes involving EVs will grow.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 12:07
  #747 (permalink)  
 
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I was in on the early days of electric RC flying, as the builder of aircraft for my son to fly. We started with NiCd cells and moved on to NiMh, although these were lighter for a given capacity, you could not take the same current from them so were pretty much only ok for light stuff. One of the guys in the model club had a large powered glider and was taking 60 amps from his NiCd power packs! Then came the lithium batteries, initially lithium polymer in plastic sachets. We learnt very quickly from the misfortune of others, that these were a bit tricky to handle. If they reached a certain tempreture, they would spontaneously catch fire. This could be achieved by taking too much power from them, charging them too quickly or, by leaving them in the back of a car or truck on a hot sunny day and would usually lead to said vehicle burning out.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 12:08
  #748 (permalink)  

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I've seen two lithium battery "conflagrations" - one occurred while I was changing the failing battery on a mobile phone. It creased only very slightly as I removed it (they're biscuit shaped and held in place with very sticky tape) and it immediately began to overheat and smoulder. I chucked it outside and it caught fire.

Remembering what Lithium does in water from my A level chemistry experiments, it's interesting to think how an EV fire would be dealt with by the emergency services.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 12:08
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There's a big difference between the sort of cheap, less safe, cells used in portable devices (which is where all those recycling centre fires originated) and the cells used in vehicles and for home and industrial energy storage packs, though. Portable devices, especially older ones, tend to use soft pouch lithium cobalt cells, and these are both easy to damage mechanically and tend to off-gas or catch fire if badly damaged. One of the development goals for the cells used in larger applications, like vehicles, ships, and domestic/industrial energy storage has been making the chemistry safer. No high energy density storage device is ever going to be 100% safe, but the goal has been to make these battery packs no more hazardous that a tank of petrol, or a tank filled with high pressure hydrogen.

Earlier vehicle battery packs were less safe than newer ones, but even so their have been less vehicle fires per mile driven than for petrol engined vehicles. The cells being used now use a safer chemistry, and have better mechanical protection, and compared to a fairly easily damaged pouch cell, glued into a plastic case, which is typically how portable device battery packs are made, they are orders of magnitude safer. As an example of the sort of mechanical protection measure being used in EVs now, here's a crash test video showing the worst case for the battery pack (it's in a tray under the floor pan, covering the whole width of the car), a side impact between the wheels. The car on the right is a Volvo S60, one of the safest cars around, the car on the left is a 2018 Tesla Model 3:

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Old 26th Oct 2020, 12:34
  #750 (permalink)  

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Here's one in a real world situation:

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/te...ry?id=59930420
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 12:41
  #751 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ShyTorque View Post
Remembering what Lithium does in water from my A level chemistry experiments, it's interesting to think how an EV fire would be dealt with by the emergency services.
Lithium cells do not contain metallic lithium, only lithium containing compounds. Lithium metal is too reactive to be used in cells, hence the complex mix of compounds that are used. Lithium compounds generally aren't that reactive, and don't contribute significantly to the fire risk. The fire hazard is from the stored energy, the plastic separator between the electrodes, the carbon coating on those electrodes and the conflagration of metals, like aluminium, and plastics around the cell. Get anything hot enough from a stored energy release and there's a chance it will burn.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 13:51
  #752 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Lithium cells do not contain metallic lithium, only lithium containing compounds. Lithium metal is too reactive to be used in cells, hence the complex mix of compounds that are used. Lithium compounds generally aren't that reactive, and don't contribute significantly to the fire risk. The fire hazard is from the stored energy, the plastic separator between the electrodes, the carbon coating on those electrodes and the conflagration of metals, like aluminium, and plastics around the cell. Get anything hot enough from a stored energy release and there's a chance it will burn.
There was a similar thread on PPRuNe a few years ago in which somebody published the results on some fire tests on lithium batteries. One of the things that struck me was the conclusion that the stored electrical energy in the battery was negligible when compared to the energy released by burning its material components. The stored electrical energy did cause the total energy to be released much more quickly, by providing a source of heat to get things going.

It made me appreciate how much energy you can get from burning something if 100kWh can be considered negligible in a burning car.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 13:53
  #753 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
Lithium cells do not contain metallic lithium, only lithium containing compounds. Lithium metal is too reactive to be used in cells, hence the complex mix of compounds that are used. Lithium compounds generally aren't that reactive, and don't contribute significantly to the fire risk. The fire hazard is from the stored energy, the plastic separator between the electrodes, the carbon coating on those electrodes and the conflagration of metals, like aluminium, and plastics around the cell. Get anything hot enough from a stored energy release and there's a chance it will burn.
So that's all right then.
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Old 26th Oct 2020, 14:09
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Originally Posted by netstruggler View Post
There was a similar thread on PPRuNe a few years ago in which somebody published the results on some fire tests on lithium batteries. One of the things that struck me was the conclusion that the stored electrical energy in the battery was negligible when compared to the energy released by burning its material components. The stored electrical energy did cause the total energy to be released much more quickly, by providing a source of heat to get things going.

It made me appreciate how much energy you can get from burning something if 100kWh can be considered negligible in a burning car.
Lithium cell chemistry has moved on in leaps and bounds over the past few years. I was playing around with model aircraft style lithium cobalt oxide pouch cells about ten years ago (which even then was ~20 year old chemistry), and they were definitely a bit risky if something went wrong. By contrast, modern cell chemistries are a lot safer, and both less likely to catch fire if they overheat, and designed to vent if the internal pressure rises too high. A lot of work has gone into making cells safer, both for vehicles, but more importantly for large industrial power storage solutions, like the 189 MWh Hornsdale Power Reserve (equivalent to ~2,500 Tesla Model 3 battery packs, on one site).

This video shows a modern industrial lithium cell being safety tested, by driving a steel nail through it to short it out internally, when fully charged. Like electric vehicle cells, it's liquid cooled (water in this case, my car uses a glycol/water mix for battery cooling):

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Old 26th Oct 2020, 14:38
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Just found a better demonstration of old versus new lithium cell behaviour when cells are subject to abuse. It's a bit of an advert for one Czech cell supplier, but the general principle applies to many other recent, safer, cell chemistries:

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Old 26th Oct 2020, 16:13
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Meanwhile Tesla have filed a Capex 10Q report with the SEC proposing to spend up to $12 Billion over the next 2 years or so on production capacity increases.

Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development and all other continuing infrastructure growth, we currently expect our capital expenditures to be at the high end of our range of $2.5 to $3.5 billion in 2020 and increase to $4.5 to $6 billion in each of the next two fiscal years.
And further..

We are simultaneously ramping new products in Model Y and Solar Roof, constructing manufacturing facilities on three continents and piloting the development and manufacture of new battery cell technologies, and the pace of our capital spend may vary depending on overall priority among projects, the pace at which we meet milestones, production adjustments to and among our various products, increased capital efficiencies, and the addition of new projects.
This will eventually lead to vehicle production in the millions along with improved battery tech produced in house.

https://electrek.co/2020/10/26/tesla...ery-factories/

We are in the same position as horse drawn transport in 1890 - completely replaced by petrol, diesel and steam by 1920.
This time the pace of change will be faster - 2030 will be a date to watch.
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Old 30th Oct 2020, 14:01
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Finding a new battery might not be as easy as some here think and certainly not as economical. These Nissans Leafs, like a dealer tried to sell me when they first came on sale, cost over 26,000 less than ten years ago.

https://insideevs.com/news/451309/ni...y-replacement/
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Old 30th Oct 2020, 14:12
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Seems to be plenty of Leaf battery packs for sale here. Some are buying them and reconfiguring them for home batteries. It seems that the battery packs don't often get damaged in accidents, so a Leaf can be written off as uneconomic to repair and the battery pack sold. A chap I know is part way through building a home battery system using a battery pack from a written off BMW i3 at the moment. He reckons it's a lot cheaper to DIY a system like this than buy a ready made home battery storage system. If his system works as planned he's hoping to be effectively off-grid as far as electricity bills are concerned.
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Old 30th Oct 2020, 14:38
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You can buy them alright.... there's a used one for a Leaf on Ebay right now for 7,000 and judging by the damage visible in the photos, it looks like the car has suffered an impact.

But unlike a used IC engine, which is relatively easy to assess and replace (and for a small car will probably cost around 10% or less of the one above), how can the purchaser know he's not bought another failing battery?
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Old 30th Oct 2020, 14:51
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Originally Posted by ShyTorque View Post
You can buy them alright.... there's a used one for a Leaf on Ebay right now for 7,000 and judging by the damage visible in the photos, it looks like the car has suffered an impact
He already has a used one. He wants a new one. It does indicated though that he can probably get 5k or so for his old one, to offset the cost of buying a replacement, so the old battery would be re-used rather than scrapped, which is what the report was implying.
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