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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Old 24th Sep 2017, 22:06
  #18741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Originally Posted by G0ULI View Post
So the remainers all voted for a party whose declared policy was hard Brexit?
Some voted for a party which promised a free unicorn for everybody. It's possible that at some point they may become disappointed. But hey, in this post facts politics world, who knows?
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Old 24th Sep 2017, 23:18
  #18742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Some voted for a party which promised a free unicorn for everybody. It's possible that at some point they may become disappointed. But hey, in this post facts politics world, who knows?
Promised a free unicorn? - was that the same Party that promised to wipe out student debt?
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 07:21
  #18743 (permalink)  
 
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BREXIT SABOTAGE: Macron and Merkel to unleash plot to tie UK to Brussels FOREVER - Express
https://apple.news/ATjrB0esyN_e9WszJOBYgDQ

Isn't this what the British people will want an EU lite membership with more control of immigration and more sovereignty

The problem with this is that there will be no negotiated deal now or in the future
It will be EU lite or bugger off

Rob

You often do this with me ask a question then refuse to put that question clearly
I have often been told to go back to the question which could be 20 pages back ))

If you and exrigger would care to ask in clear in English I will answer ))
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 07:33
  #18744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
BREXIT SABOTAGE: Macron and Merkel to unleash plot to tie UK to Brussels FOREVER - Express
https://apple.news/ATjrB0esyN_e9WszJOBYgDQ

Isn't this what the British people will want an EU lite membership with more control of immigration and more sovereignty

The problem with this is that there will be no negotiated deal now or in the future
It will be EU lite or bugger off

Rob

You often do this with me ask a question then refuse to put that question clearly
I have often been told to go back to the question which could be 20 pages back ))

If you and exrigger would care to ask in clear in English I will answer ))
Daily Express getting rattled that European leaders may be thinking imaginatively, and trying to accommodate the UK and the desires of it's population, which are for most, "stay in the EU but keep those pesky foreigners out".

I hate to rain on their parade, but whatever Macron says tomorrow, Merkel will probably still not have a government to lead until the end of the year - they're talking Christmas, so whatever she thinks, she won't be able to do much before then. So for now it's a non story.

However I can see where he's coming from. If the likes and Poland, Hungary, Denmark - and the UK (were it to stay) out of the "ever closer union" agenda, allowing much swifter moves towards the ultimate (and my opinion desirable) goals of the rump EU.

Would other members of the "awkward squad" agree to a two-speed Europe? Personally, I doubt it.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 07:50
  #18745 (permalink)  
 
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Pace I will re-post a few samples to demonstrate that most of my questions have been in very clear English:

You wrote:

The problem with your theory is that we won't be buying the BMWs Mercs etc as we won't have the money
and my question was:

Who won't have the money?
You have said many times what a disaster a no deal or bad deal will be for the UK and I have asked several times:

Do you really believe that:

trade will stop, or at best be so low as to be a disaster to the UK economy?
no deal will be made so the airlines will stop coming in/out of UK?
London will empty of Financial services?
I cannot see how those can be clearer, can you?

By the way, you will obviously note that that is another clear question, I hope.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 08:09
  #18746 (permalink)  
 
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Exrigger

We have to have a vibrant successful economy to buy German cars
Apart from their known reliability there is a certain designer label attached to saying you own a Mercedes's or BMW
We own very few car companies anymore although they carry the UK name

Of course we will still trade with the EU but that trade will diminish
They are our biggest trading partner and closest so it's not just about things we sell but joint shared projects which makes up part of that trade

We cannot afford any loss and should be looking at how we can expand our trade in Europe
There was an article yesterday on trade with the world
It takes time to put these trade deals together and with the best will in the world 2 year transition won't hack it
So we have a gap where the economy will be severely damaged
It's not just about trade it's about a relationship and willingness to trade

Here I blame this government who have almost been fighting world war 2 with Europe using rhetoric for the home market to inflame opinion to the point that the relationship with the EU is very bad
We are seen to want all the upsides of the EU, the cherry picking with the downsides

That is no way to cultivate trade and I could see a point where Europeans won't want to buy anything if it has a UK label on it

So no we won't have the money on a shrinking economy to buy with a weak pound and inflation with higher mortgages luxury goods
You might like the USA in the depression get a trade surplus but that will be indicative of a shrinking inward economy

On financial services 10,000 jobs have already been located in Europe
If it's a bitter divorce the EU will regulate to block any access to their markets
We traded the Euro in trillions
Twice the whole of the EU put together
That will no longer happen
Then there are the knock on effects on our number 1 financial services status

On a no deal exit and no open skies agreement our airlines are stuffed
EasyJet Europe flying between 27 countries will become the dominant easyJet company paying EU taxes
EasyJet UK will be an expensive limited subsidiary

Who will hurt more in no open skies we will without doubt
Also consider the volume of businessmen using low cost airlines dating around Europe on joint European business ventures that will shrink dramatically without a good deal

I hope the above is clear! You cannot give two fingers to your biggest market and expect not to take severe damage that is cloud cuckoo land if you think otherwise

Last edited by Pace; 25th Sep 2017 at 08:23.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 08:23
  #18747 (permalink)  
 
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A Lurch to the Right

A hundred years ago, Germany was faced with a flood of Jewish refugees fleeing west from Russia. The German economy took a severe downturn due to reparations and other matters arising after the end of WW1. Extremist right wing parties rose in ascendancy and eventually the aging German Chancellor was replaced by a younger more thrusting figure, Adolf Hitler. (If it hadn't been Hitler, there were many others with similar views who could have taken his place).

Currently, Germany is facing a flood of millions of Muslim refugees fleeing west from the Middle East and elsewhere. This time, not so much from conflict, more as economic migrants (as in fact were many of the Jews). The German economy is also predicted to face a downturn due to Brexit and the prospect of Eastern European nations' developing economies be oming more efficient. On the political scene, the far right is in the ascendancy and an aging Chancellor has been reelected for a fourth term. Germany bestrides the EU as an economic colossus, so basically sets the rules.

Could history be about to repeat itself?

Does the UK really want to remain involved in the EU given the lurch towards right wing extremism that will become increasingly apparent over the next decade or so?

No need for death camps. "Voluntary" euthanasia performed in clinics across the EU will suffice. First the elderly, then the incurably sick, then your next door neighbour, then you!

Couldn't possibly happen? It is starting already. Why else is the EU so desperate for the UK to remain? Perhaps to prevent objections to future policies as we objected to German policies in the past? Perhaps this time, it will be the US who stand isolated against the rest of the world fighting for humanity.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 08:24
  #18748 (permalink)  
 
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Well that answered those questions in clear English.

So no we won't have the money on a shrinking economy to buy with a weak pound and inflation with higher mortgages luxury goods
The shrinking economy won't stop those who want those cars and luxury goods buying them, as one will see with the new Apple products.

But before anyone else bothers, I agree that there are those who will be permitted by banks/loan sharks to increase their debt to unmanageable levels and higher interest rates will hurt, but then that is nothing to do with brexit, as it has happened before, many times, and will happen again and again post brexit.

I have done what you have done again so now have to add to my post:

As for the airlines, I assume you think that EU airlines and non EU airlines will carry on as normal then? Hint that is another question.

And, don't you think that there are more EU and non EU airlines than UK ones, so won't it hit them hard as well? Hint there is another question.

I really cannot believe that people actually think that with no deal that all airline operations will stop coming in and out of the UK post the exit date.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 08:54
  #18749 (permalink)  
 
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Exrigger

I don't know how much you know about aviation operations
I know a reasonable amount

With no agreement aviation will be one area where we will lose
Where the EU will draw our airlines into their block
They are 27 countries to work
We are one
For cost effectiveness our airlines and crews work multiple sectors in the EU returning in most cases back to the UK
Day after brexit that cannot happen
All we can do is fly into Europe drop and return

Without our own agreement we cannot fly to the USA
Norway took 2 years to negotiate their own
It's not quite as simple as Trump giving and order to help out our chums in the UK
Already our 5 biggest airports including Heathrow have demanded clarity as they have to plan ahead
They have no clarity and have already told the government that they will be severely damaged by a no deal

You have to be very careful like in a love affair that if you want something so badly you only see what you want to see and not the reality
You committed brexiteers are guilty of that if it doesn't fit your desire you ignore that reality and only believe that all is sunshine and roses in your love affair with Miss Brexavia

Sadly she is not what you believe her to be ! She is a pretty nasty bitch who will be your ruination
All you see is her alluring smile and her come to bed eyes but don't realise she will strip you of everything you own

But you don't care as long as you have her

We have been with Miss EU for decades know her well warts and all you don't know Brexavia at all

Last edited by Pace; 25th Sep 2017 at 09:13.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 09:11
  #18750 (permalink)  
 
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But you don't care as long as you have her
Exactly. However bad the short to medium term negative consequences to the UK, Brexit is worth it to take back control of our country
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 10:07
  #18751 (permalink)  
 
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Rob

You often do this with me ask a question then refuse to put that question clearly
I have often been told to go back to the question which could be 20 pages back ))
Pace, I dont know how much more clearly I could put it, I asked you 4 times once you tried to answer a different question but here is a copy of the last time I asked back on page 928

Thats because you never asked. But you are still dodging the question I asked you. Remember I asked if you where happy with joining the Euro, a single financial dept that regulated everyones taxes, an EU army and being told what party was acceptable to vote for. Go on humor me and try answering for a change
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 10:19
  #18752 (permalink)  
 
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No I wouldn't be happy with joining the Euro or further integration
I would be happy with our own currency and a second Tier for those who don't want further integration that we have at present
I have always promoted Macrons suggestion of a two or even 3 tier Europe
I would be very happy with a second tier membership and that would suit what I wanted all along
I do not support a sail into the distance policy promoted by the right or the suicide mission of leaving with no deal
If it was a choice between extremes of further integration or leaving with no deal I would rather we remained and fought for changes
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 10:31
  #18753 (permalink)  
 
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No I wouldn't be happy with joining the Euro or further integration
I would be happy with our own currency and a second Tier for those who don't want further integration that we have at present
I have always promoted Macrons suggestion of a two or even 3 tier Europe
I would be very happy with a second tier membership and that would suit what I wanted all along
I do not support a sail into the distance policy promoted by the right or the suicide mission of leaving with no deal
If it was a choice between extremes of further integration or leaving with no deal I would rather we remained and fought for changes
Thank you, but your issue is that you cannot guarantee we would not be forced to join the Euro or a single financial regulator or a EU Army can you. We know the EU say one thing and then do another, we only joined a "Common Market" remember. We were told by the remain side in 1975 that staying in would mean no loss of sovereignty. what would you do if we remained and fought for change only to be overruled by QMV? We didnt want that Clown Junker to be Commission President but we were ignored. Why would you believe that we would win anything else. The only country that gets its own way in the EU is Germany everyone else is ignored.

So you choice is remain with a lot more integration (as would have happened had we voted to remain because the EU would have seen this as a green flag for their ideas) or leave, yes its going to be hard for a few years but the UK is one of the worlds leading economies and can make its way.

So there you are, leave or remain and integrate, another question
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 10:31
  #18754 (permalink)  
 
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If it was a choice between extremes of further integration or leaving with no deal I would rather we remained and fought for changes
The impossibility of changing the course is not obvious to you?
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 10:43
  #18755 (permalink)  
 
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The impossibility of changing the course is not obvious to you?
You would think that after 40 years of banging our heads against a brick wall we would have learned. Obviously some havnt
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 11:12
  #18756 (permalink)  
 
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Thing is unless the EU process goes through Germany is stuffed in 20-30 years. They have to force through the changes and get everything integrated.

Working population 27% of the total population which I might add will have been reduced by 20%, forecast in 20-25 years unless something changes.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 11:20
  #18757 (permalink)  
 
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From ttg europe. https://www.ttgmedia.com//news/news/...airlines-11673
Brexit remains a mystery for UK airlines

Speaking in a panel debate at World Routes 2017 entitled Spotlight in Europe, Flybe chief commercial officer Vincent Hodder said airlines are no clearer on what the move could mean than they were at Routes Europe 2017 in April.

He also expressed concern that the final details could be resolved in a last-minute rush, with vital details overlooked in the rush to complete a deal.

Hodder said: “Literally no-one knows what’s going to happen. The best we can do is go about our business as if everything is going to be fine.

“We expect to see a deal that will allow airlines from the UK to fly to Europe and airlines from Europe to fly to the UK.”

“But we just don’t know. We assume this will be fine but we’re getting to the point that when we get to March next year, we need to know what we are doing for summer 19.”

However, he added the future of intra-Europe flights operated by UK-based airlines like Flybe remained a mystery while additional cost would have to be accounted for with new sources of revenue.

“Everything is being left very late, by doing things at the last minute, something is likely to be forgotten.”

He argued this could be anything from a technical issue to a piece of regulation, adding: “Something we used to be able to do we will find we now can’t and it is going to be too late (to resolve).”

Bmi regional chief commercial officer Jochen Schnadt agreed, adding: “It is a concer. When we met in Belfast one could have reasonable optimism the issues are too big to be sidelined.

“Unfortunately there’s no positive aspect from our point of view at this point in time.”

Schnadt added the airline’s strategy of offering intra-European flights to the business traveller was proving to be effective and the airline is keen to pursue it.
The UK government has no idea of what it wants, or of what needs doing. 1 March 2019, is not a deadline, it is a target.
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 11:21
  #18758 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Rob Courtney View Post

So you choice is remain with a lot more integration (as would have happened had we voted to remain because the EU would have seen this as a green flag for their ideas) or leave, yes its going to be hard for a few years but the UK is one of the worlds leading economies and can make its way.

So there you are, leave or remain and integrate, another question
I think it was quite clear that the UK and Denmark are not on the list of countries obliged to join the Euro. So your assertion is purely speculative.

As for the 'EU Army' - well when you joined the world was quite a different place, wasn't it? There were two superpowers in a nuclear stalemate. When we joined - the Russians were just about the 'good guys'. Things have changed quite a bit since then. Recall the leader of the number 1 country in NATO said the USA would not neccessarily come to the help of its NATO allies if they are threatened. The threats are also completely different now.

You think the UK is better off on its own military wise?
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 11:23
  #18759 (permalink)  
 
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Rob

I am sorry but we are not getting what May almost promised which was unfetttered access through an amazing deal on free trade almost as good as being in the SM
While in 10 years plus we may be able to plug the gaps to do so for the foreseeable future is impossible

As the saying goes " the bigger you are the harder you will fall " I have seen nothing from your side which indicates that fall will not be very hard indeed
So hard we may never recover

You have a big gap and no way of minimimising the damage in a no deal exit

I think May has finally realised that and tried to hold the party together with a compromise 2 years when reality is we need 5 years transition

You look at Brexavia through rose tinted glasses ! She really will suck you dry

You really cannot give two fingers to your biggest and closest market now and not expect to be severely damaged in the process
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Old 25th Sep 2017, 11:54
  #18760 (permalink)  
 
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I think it was quite clear that the UK and Denmark are not on the list of countries obliged to join the Euro. So your assertion is purely speculative.
It was also quite clear in 1975 that there would be no further loss of sovereignty yes it may be speculative but that speculation is based on solid evidence that the EU will get its own way eventually. Can you give a cast iron guatentee that the UK and Denmark wont be forced to join the Euro.

As for the 'EU Army' - well when you joined the world was quite a different place, wasn't it? There were two superpowers in a nuclear stalemate. When we joined - the Russians were just about the 'good guys'. Things have changed quite a bit since then. Recall the leader of the number 1 country in NATO said the USA would not neccessarily come to the help of its NATO allies if they are threatened. The threats are also completely different now.

You think the UK is better off on its own military wise?
Are the threats completely different? really? do you trust Putin? The USA will stand by NATO whatever its just that Trump reminded the EU leaders that they have to invest in their armed forces as well. where would you want that investment money to be spent? on new EU bureaucrats to run this new force or would you prefer more troops? Who will control this new EU armed force? the Commission? why do they need an army after all its just an economic project isnt it?

Do I think the UK is better off on its own military wise? if its between a EU army controlled by people like Junker and nothing then Hell yes I do. But its not we are still a member of NATO which has kept the peace for 50 years and toppled the Warsaw Pact leading to countries like Poland becoming democracies.
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