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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Old 22nd Sep 2017, 19:20
  #18601 (permalink)  
 
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Tesco app

Watch how the markets respond tomorrow

It doesn't suit the EU to hard exit with us Yes it will damage us a lot more but it will still damage them
3.5 years of extra payments as now
Still under ECJ
Still with FOM
A possible collapse in Brexit change of circumstances

We were not a 1/4 prepared for any of this and Frankly the Country has spent all the time fighting on what Brexit should be the Conservatives as well

No wonder the EU were bemused by the whole shambles

Something probably will be worked out during 3.5 years but a lot can change in that time and May is still running a minority Government

Don't forget if it does collapse it needs to do so before 2019 or we loose all the rebates as well


http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...=recirculation

Addendum

The EU have given a warm welcome to the idea of a two year transition on existing terms

Farage is panicking and Livid demanding the UK walks away

Last edited by Pace; 22nd Sep 2017 at 19:31.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 19:52
  #18602 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExXB View Post
SFFP - thanks but ...

Why should the EU agree to that? All negotiations involve a quid pro quo, and I din't see one in your comment.
Why would they not, seems like a perfectly reasonable offer. The quid pro quo comes in the guise of continuance of tariff free trade for one and all. Everyones a winner and no ones a loser.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 20:03
  #18603 (permalink)  
 
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A cursory consideration of Theresa May's speech reveals two conflicting aims, a Brexit on 29/3/2019 and an extended transition period for two years beyond that date.

Clearly Brexit implies we leave the EU, the ECJ and freedom of movement behind. Continuation of current arrangements would imply that we also would have to accept EU conditions of trade and membership of the single market. In other words we wouldn't be leaving at all.

So we have two mutually exclusive proposals. I sincerely hope the EU utterly rejects any transition period outright, otherwise politics in the UK is going to turn rather nasty.

I utterly condemn and reject these proposals, as I hope will the rest of the leave contingent. Out means out, not half in or out, and not continuing under the same terms for an extended transition. I trust the hardline Brexiteers will remove Mrs May at the party conference and install someone who will uphold Brexit without compromise.

Last edited by G0ULI; 22nd Sep 2017 at 20:16.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 20:05
  #18604 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Golf-Sierra View Post
I can imagine the 1st of April 2019. The EU will pass a resolution banning driving on the left side of the road. And there will be nothing tou can do to stop it ;-)
Try reading he speech again - its a 2 year transition on existing terms

Although TBH I can see issues with that and why the EU might not agree.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 20:27
  #18605 (permalink)  
 
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From the BBC

Leave campaigner and businessman Christopher Nieper said Theresa May's Brexit speech was "thin on detail".

The managing director of womenswear manufacturer David Nieper, said: "What we are all waiting for is her vision for a trade deal. We didn't see anything on that, and I was a little disappointed."
So what the f* does the UK want? Agree that first, then go to the negotiating table. Everything else is just noise.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 20:55
  #18606 (permalink)  
 
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Whatever its going to be a lively Conservative Conference

Gouli

I would imagine 2019 we are out of the EU but not the single market. They are separate entities

But we will still be under ECJ and full FOM for another two years beyond while a full agreement is worked out probably by Corbyn and co by then

What happens to the GRB? that will have to be delayed to 2021 for instigation if then

The EU appear to be happy with the two year transition as is

Really this is an almighty mess we got ourselves into! A mums army effort

Last edited by Pace; 22nd Sep 2017 at 21:14.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 20:56
  #18607 (permalink)  
 
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I believe from the Article 50 letter and since this is what the UK said they wanted to achieve:

1. Leave the EU including single market, ECJ and customs union.
2. Continue trade with EU 27 in a manner beneficial to UK & EU.
3. Protect UK citizens in EU 27 countries, with reciprocal agreement for EU citizens in UK.
4. Apply the open borders as agreed between the Irish and UK governing parties.
5. Be able to increase trade across the world without EU interference and tariffs.
6. Have our laws and governance back into our elected governments hands.

I thought it was pretty clear, but the EU, and others, obviously don't think so, or are just being disingenuous, they have continued to say, give us a big pay out and we will consider negotiating some deal later, and tell us what you want, but the EU still want to make it a punishment for trying to leave the club so no-one else would bother. Although when they don't succeed with their tactics, they trot out the usual rhetoric that it is all the UK fault for not telling them what they want.

It seems they are on this brexit telephone box hampsterwheel with the rest of us.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 21:27
  #18608 (permalink)  
 
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Brexit: What did we learn from Theresa May's Florence speech? - BBC News

This reality check disects what she says

The transition means fully in the single market with the four freedoms but requiring EU citizens to register
That was always in the UKs ability under the EU but never used

It does look like a climbdown and kicking the problem down the road

A reality check? We really are not in a position to NO deal
There has to be a real threat that Corbyn will be negotiating brexit
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 21:29
  #18609 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
Whatever its going to be a lively Conservative Conference
I've decided not to go - not that I'm averse to visiting Manchester (I've got a kid there who's always good for a Curry Mile recommendation), it's more that I'm holding a party the night before so don't feel that inclined to get up that early on a Sunday morning just to attend a demo.


(I'm also not going to the Labour conference, which might have something to do with my favourite Labour councillor saying she won't be there.)
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 22:38
  #18610 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
Why would they not, seems like a perfectly reasonable offer.
Or as the SPIEGEL, Germany's leading news magazine, headlines...

"May is cherry-picking"

...quoting EU politicians from across the political spectrum (Left, Conservatives, Greens) who have commented on the speech Examples:

"In a partnership, sometimes you give, sometimes you gain. Apparently May wants the UK only to gain. On that basis there cannot be a second stage of negotiations"

"May simply needs more time to sort out the mess the UK government has created".

"On the basis of that speech, there is no progress."

Looks like the trip to Florence was a waste of time.

Last edited by virginblue; 22nd Sep 2017 at 22:57.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 22:41
  #18611 (permalink)  
 
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The EU will reject May's proposals.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 23:14
  #18612 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue View Post
Apparently May wants the UK only to gain.
Hang on. She's offered to continue paying into the EU budget for 2 years after we leave. How is that the UK 'only gaining'?

Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
The EU will reject May's proposals.
Well fine. That's their right of course. But if they do, then I hope we cut our losses, end negotiations and turn our attentions to preparing for life without a deal. It's honestly not what I want, but I'm increasingly convinced that the EU are not negotiating in good faith. I get the impression that the only thing that will make them happy is surrender on their terms.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 23:17
  #18613 (permalink)  
 
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I dont feel well - I actually agree with Robert Peston..

As for the Johnsons, Goves and Foxes, I slightly assume they are backing the PM for now because they assume her plan is bound to flop, and that therefore we are heading for the no-deal exit.
It certainly looks as though a no-deal exit is getting closer by the day.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 23:20
  #18614 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
Hang on. She's offered to continue paying into the EU budget for 2 years after we leave. How is that the UK 'only gaining'?
Anyone who has ever had any responsibility for public administration will know that any faffing around with one-off payments, whether for a transition period of zero seconds or five years, whether 10p or 10bn or 100bn, is a largely irrelevant side show.

One-off capital is dead easy, you can always fudge it one way or another (particularly when interest rates are zero), that's what you employ bean counters for. It's core budget revenue spending that's difficult.

So for May to go to the EU and say "hey, we'll give you a one-off 20bn" cannot possibly make any significant difference to anything. It's a piss-take.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 23:23
  #18615 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
So for May to go to the EU and say "hey, we'll give you a one-off 20bn" cannot possibly make any significant difference to anything. It's a piss-take.
I don't believe a specific figure has been offered. Which suggests to me that we're willing to negotiate it.
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Old 22nd Sep 2017, 23:34
  #18616 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
Anyone who has ever had any responsibility for public administration will know that any faffing around with one-off payments, whether for a transition period of zero seconds or five years, whether 10p or 10bn or 100bn, is a largely irrelevant side show.

One-off capital is dead easy, you can always fudge it one way or another (particularly when interest rates are zero), that's what you employ bean counters for. It's core budget revenue spending that's difficult.

So for May to go to the EU and say "hey, we'll give you a one-off 20bn" cannot possibly make any significant difference to anything. It's a piss-take.
You over simplify. Mays offer has got the EU out of a massive financial jam, they wont have to have an emergency budget and the poorer Countries will get all the money they were expecting and France and Germany wont have to chip in any more.

Its quite a generous move by May in the hope that the EU reciprocates.
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Old 23rd Sep 2017, 01:07
  #18617 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
Its quite a generous move by May in the hope that the EU reciprocates.
The ball is in their court, more importantly is they seek their pound of flesh.........
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Old 23rd Sep 2017, 03:09
  #18618 (permalink)  
 
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UK credit rating downgraded due to Brexit uncertainty - The Independent
https://apple.news/A9tcUXdGaQzyEkHPFj3eF9w

The UKs credit rating has been downgraded by Moody's with severe criticism of this governments handling of brexit and lack of confidence it can achieve a free trade agreement

This whole government should resign in shame on how they have turned a once respected country into a joke and threatened the livelihood and welfare of its people
They are no longer fit to govern
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Old 23rd Sep 2017, 03:44
  #18619 (permalink)  
 
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It certainly looks as though a no-exit is getting closer by the day.
Jet 11

There you go fixed it for you as being more likely

Well fine. That's their right of course. But if they do, then I hope we cut our losses, end negotiations and turn our attentions to preparing for life without a deal. It's honestly not what I want, but I'm increasingly convinced that the EU are not negotiating in good faith. I get the impression that the only thing that will make them happy is surrender on their terms
How far does the UK have to go down before you brexiteers wake up
The best thing that May and her government can do is call another referendum and cancel brexit as being one giant British mistake

Last edited by Pace; 23rd Sep 2017 at 03:56. Reason: Akev
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Old 23rd Sep 2017, 04:27
  #18620 (permalink)  
 
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The UK's credit rating has been downgraded on just the suggestion that the UK might enter into some transition period with the EU after the Brexit date. Tells you everything you need to know about what world markets truly think about Brexit. The sooner we leave, with a clean break, the better.

Out means out and this government had better deliver on that promise!
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