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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Old 9th Dec 2016, 13:04
  #5341 (permalink)  
 
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DC

I argued with you prior to the referendum and was and still am critical of the EU

Where we disagree is that we have to have inferred access to the EU markets and I want a controlled freedom of movement

Already EU citizens are leaving with the pound level and we desperately need people across the board from unskilled to semi skilled to skilled

What needs changing is citizen and benefit rights not freedom of movement
My scheme would have properly tracked movement and would have offered a self funding mini benefits system

Food industry warns of higher prices without EU workers - BBC News
https://apple.news/Aptxe5H4QR_O29IMJl6rviA
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 13:34
  #5342 (permalink)  
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"...your decision. Nobody else's. Not politicians. Not Parliament's. Not lobby groups. Not mine. Just you. You, the British people will decide."

Or a bunch of Lawyers. He left out lawyers...

...and foreign born Investment Managers.


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Old 9th Dec 2016, 13:51
  #5343 (permalink)  
 
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Where we disagree is that we have to have inferred access to the EU markets and I want a controlled freedom of movement
I dont disagree with that at all, what I do disagree with is that you have to be a member of the free market or customs union to have asscess to it. If you are a member you then remain under the auspices of the European Court, you have to pay for access accept free movement and be unable to do your own trade deals. That is too big a price. Get free market access without these and everyone including the EU based companies are happy, that I am afraid is down to the EU though.

Already EU citizens are leaving with the pound level and we desperately need people across the board from unskilled to semi skilled to skilled
Actually there is no evidence they are leaving and numbers are expected to surge prior to leaving.. Again I have no issues allowing those here already to stay but that has to be across the board with UK nationals being allowed to stay in Europe, something the Germans are unwilling to agree to at the moment. I believe that controls should be around access for needed skills, do we really need immigrants to come and wash cars, then claim in work benefits to send home? likewise in the service sector, all an unlimited supply of labour does is drive down wages for the poorest in the country meaning that the tax payer (ie. you and I) fund companies who have no need to pay a decent wage.

What needs changing is citizen and benefit rights not freedom of movement
What you need is a level playing field meaning that EU citizens have to qualify on the same basis as the rest of the world. Is iy fair that someone from Bulgaria can walk in no questions asked while someone from Australia cannot?

Food industry warns of higher prices without EU workers - BBC News
Well they would wouldn't they, maybe they should pay a bit more. Makes you wonder how we ever survived before free movement.

In other news our trade deficit has narrowed again down 4 billion and exports to the rest of the world increased again.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 13:57
  #5344 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with "qualified" freedom of movement and a very light touch on immigration is that people simply game the system. Look at the number of language schools (foreign intelligence assests) based in Oxford Street. Thousands upon thousands of "students" registered to enable them to come to the UK, whereupon they disappear. After a suitable period and a cash transaction a certificate is issued to allow the students to continue studying / working / researching, or whatever, for as long as they need in the UK. If they can string this out long enough and provide paperwork showing they have sufficient financial resources, automatic rights of residency in the UK can be obtained.

Only with strict passport and visa controls and firm borders can the UK ever hope to control the comings and goings of would be immigrants. Even then it is possible to travel from the Republic of Ireland to the UK effectively without any documentation due to long standing treaty agreements.

At the moment, UK borders are very similar to a large store with one overweight pensioner acting as a security guard. The occasional shoplifter gets spotted but the professional gangs operate with impunity. CCTV, electronic monitoring, and an honesty system just aren't good enough. Go through the red channel at customs at 2am and there is no one about.

Coastal patrols in aircraft? Great during the day in good weather, but you need ships in the water and boarding crews to intercept smugglers and the like. Intelligence led operations can only point you in the right direction some of the time. Other times you need random stop/searches and hope to get lucky.

If prices in the UK are going up because unskilled workers are departing from the UK back to their homes in the EU, what does that imply? I would suggest that these people have been ruthlessly exploited over the past few years, working for less than the minimum wage in many cases, simply because the pay was better than in theri home countries. What does that say about EU regulations designed to stop exploitation and slavery? They don't work! Nothing in the EU works unless there is a group in a position to make profit from it and who are prepared to use enforcement measures to protect their profits.

The side effect of that is that UK workers have been subjected to static or reducing wages (in real terms) due to a surplus of labour. It isn't that we have to get foreign workers in to do jobs that the British don't want to do. It is that the British are not prepared to do the "menial" or dirty jobs for the derisory wages offered. Working on a checkout, bored out of your skull, for 6-7 an hour doesn't make economic sense. For 12 an hour, you might be prepared to put up with the boredom. I appreciate that wages are traditionally the second largest cost to any business after capital infrastructure costs, but progress and genuine increases in living standards costs money.

I genuinely believe that outside the constraints of the EU and with firm movement controls, Britain will be in a position to flourish on world markets and that eventually we will see a return to a genuine increase in general living standards. It is the people at the bottom of the food chain that need to see levels rise the most. The middle classes may have to scale back their spending and aspirations a bit. The top ten percent, won't be affected at all, as has always been the case.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 14:00
  #5345 (permalink)  
 
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There is an argument that as our biggest and closest market we should take workers from there rather than places who do little or no trade with us
The EU still account for 44% ( Mays figures ) of our economy
If securing that trade means favouring Europeans so be it
If 44% of our trade was with Australia then I am sure you would happily have a movement agreement with Australia if it meant keeping that trade
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 14:08
  #5346 (permalink)  
 
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The only reason that 44% of our trade is with the EU is because we are locked into it by EU trade agreements and the customs union. it makes no sense to go outside the EU looking for a cheaper supplier if a 40% EU tariff is going to be slapped on top of the negoriated price.

I would venture that trade will drop to less than 18% once we have the freedom to shop elsewhere.

Like a shop loyalty card, the deals look fantastic before you get locked into the system. Not quite so good when you check the prices on the Internet. Shop price for a typical computer game, 40. Discount with a loyalty card brings the price down to 35. Bargain!

Internet price 10, free delivery within two to three days.

That is our current position with respect to the EU.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 14:08
  #5347 (permalink)  
 
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Gouli

What sort of Visa system are you thinking of
The traditional system is highly complex putting it out of reach to anyone other than large companies who apply and pay for visa sponsorship status costing a lot

That may work for the skilled high paid but not the lesser semi skilled workers we need

So what scheme would you use ?

We already take more from out of the EU and have always had control there and over illegals
May didn't do a good job in her 4 years there
Why will leaving the EU change that ? It has always been in our hands
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 14:24
  #5348 (permalink)  
 
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Pace

The point is that we do not allow any workers into the UK who are not vital to our national interests. Unskilled and semi skilled workers will just have to remain outside the UK. We really don't need them, the UK is over populated as it is.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 15:09
  #5349 (permalink)  
 
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The "access to the EU market" thing is deeply misunderstood by some, I believe.

If you are a country outside the EU that wishes to buy goods or services from the EU then you will still be in the same position as before - the EU is most definitely not going to stop supplying a market outside of the EU if it can help it. This is the situation that exists at the moment with dozens of countries from outside the EU that buy EU goods and services - we will just become another one of those.

When it comes to selling goods or services into the EU, then the same rules apply as in every other market or trading circumstance. If the goods and services you wish to sell are fairly priced and in demand in the EU, then why would the EU not allow you to sell?

The fly in the ointment is where the EU adopt protectionist trade tariffs, or excessive duties, in order to artificially support higher cost manufacturers and suppliers within the EU. They do this with China, to protect the German silicon solar panel manufacturing capability, but it's not a sensible long term strategy, as the rest of the world would rather buy from China at a much reduced price, so the German market for their higher priced goods is restricted to being mainly within the EU, which doesn't allow them to expand and artificially restricts their market.

The whole "restrictions of free trade" thing inevitably ends up distorting the market and producing effects and impacts that weren't foreseen when the restrictive tariffs were imposed, and a lot of people are now beginning to understand that, in a truly global market, those states that impose protectionist tariffs rarely achieve more than a short term benefit, with an overall longer term loss.

The bottom line is that I'm not the slightest bit worried about not being inside the EU free market. The worst will be a short period when the EU behaves idiotically, and gets itself in a worse state that its in now, and the most probable outcome will be an overall UK market that is bigger and far, far more flexible than we have under the restrictions imposed by the EU.

Of course there will be some upsets along the way, there will be idiots that act emotionally, rather than pragmatically, and I'm certain that some of that spite will cause us short term pain. Equally, I think we will have a lot more opportunities, IF we gear up in time and adopt the right approach to our new "freedom to trade with anyone, under our own judgement" status.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:13
  #5350 (permalink)  
 
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VP959: Well said and sensible too. It seems to me that, other than our silly collection at Westminster, a lot of EU politicians appear to be guilty of acting emotionally and idiotically, Most comments coming from them appear to be along the lines of "So, you want to leave our club? Well, we are going to make life as miserable as possible for you if you do". Why on earth can they not just say "So, you want to leave? Well, sorry to hear that but we wish you well in your new venture". Or is that too grown up for some of them?
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:22
  #5351 (permalink)  
 
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VP

If we trade with the EU we have to do that to their standards and regulations
My concern is not so much the actual trade figures but the hidden benefits
We are basically a service industry country with roughly 80 % of our trade in services
Because of our currency and stability while having unfettered access to the 27 EU countries we became a magnet for investment both in the financial world trading twice the total EU trade in the euro as well as Major companies around the world using the UK as their base for that unfettered access
So it's not just the impact of direct sales to and from the EU but the fact we had become certainly the financial capital of the EU but also the investment and hub centre of the EU

Your lack of concern is far far too simplistic and doesn't look at the true picture on why we need that access and the huge unseen losses we stand to loose
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:31
  #5352 (permalink)  
 
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Pace, there is no single market in services and the free trade agreements that the EU have negotiated contain very limited trade in services. As a single country in the EU, our speciality is not a priority
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:32
  #5353 (permalink)  
 
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Only with strict passport and visa controls and firm borders can the UK ever hope to control the comings and goings of would be immigrants. Even then it is possible to travel from the Republic of Ireland to the UK effectively without any documentation due to long standing treaty agreements.
The Excited Kingdom also has a land border with the Irish Republic. YACW! (Yet Another Can of Worms)
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:33
  #5354 (permalink)  
 
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I'm sure that companies like Volkswagen, PSA etc will not want to restrict sales of their cars into the UK market, nor will they want to support anything that causes such a restriction. The same goes for any number of EU companies that sell to us.

Those companies have a surprising amount of clout within the EU; I've seen first hand how the EU bends over backwards to support and favour anything that's beneficial to EU companies.

That puts us in a pretty strong position, as we can argue that if the EU decides to put high tariffs on UK supplied goods or services, we will do the same to EU supplied goods and services. I am sure the pain that would bring to the EU is greater than that which would be inflicted on ourselves!

Additionally, we might find it beneficial to offer incentives to companies like Nissan, Toyota etc, so that we are a more attractive market for them. The Japanese manufacturers already have an advantage, as UK spec cars are very similar to Japanese spec, in terms of being RHD. Arguably, having better deals with Japanese car makers might well lower car prices in the UK overall, and reduce the number of cars we buy from the EU.

We are still a large economy, in global terms, and no trade partner can ignore that for long without suffering themselves. The car market is a good example, as we've already seen how the inability of UK manufacturers to compete led to the complete collapse of the UK car manufacturing business. With the exception of some very small, low volume, manufacturers, the UK now only manufactures cars for overseas companies. Losing all PSA vehicles, plus all VAG group vehicles, from the UK market wouldn't cause us a great deal of harm, especially if we had cheaper Japanese alternatives. There would be an issue with those employed by PSA and VAG here, but the numbers are relatively small when compared to companies like Nissan.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:35
  #5355 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ExXB View Post
The Excited Kingdom also has a land border with the Irish Republic. YACW! (Yet Another Can of Worms)
Which existed and worked reasonably well before the RoI was in the EU, and even before the UK was in the EEC..............
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:37
  #5356 (permalink)  
 
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France, Germany and the UK. The marriage of these three countries should have made the EU an economic and political powerhouse to match the US, China, and India.

As has been demonstrated many, many times, three people in a marriage doesn't work! Why should we think the current arrangement would have worked out differently? It doesn't work with people, it doesn't work with royalty, and it certainly isn't working with the EU.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:42
  #5357 (permalink)  
 
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The Excited Kingdom also has a land border with the Irish Republic. YACW! (Yet Another Can of Worms)
Yes we do but we have had one for nearly one hundred years, way before the EU and we managed then. Northern Ireland is isolated from the rest of the UK by the Irish sea so although it is a problem it is a containable problem.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:43
  #5358 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
VP

If we trade with the EU we have to do that to their standards and regulations
My concern is not so much the actual trade figures but the hidden benefits
We are basically a service industry country with roughly 80 % of our trade in services
Because of our currency and stability while having unfettered access to the 27 EU countries we became a magnet for investment both in the financial world trading twice the total EU trade in the euro as well as Major companies around the world using the UK as their base for that unfettered access
So it's not just the impact of direct sales to and from the EU but the fact we had become certainly the financial capital of the EU but also the investment and hub centre of the EU

Your lack of concern is far far too simplistic and doesn't look at the true picture on why we need that access and the huge unseen losses we stand to loose
As already mentioned, you're mistaken about the extent and nature of the trade agreements that exist within the "free market".

As mentioned before, I've sat at meetings making EU regulation, and it's primarily driven by the desire to reduce cost for EU manufacturers, not get the best for consumers, or even assist service providers.
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 17:55
  #5359 (permalink)  
 
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Gouli

Just imagine the EU was just those countries and maybe another couple
That would have indeed been a powerhouse where the Euro would have worked for us too as well as freedom of movement as it would have been a natural freedom of movement without pure economic or benefit attractions

The problem is the EU grew to fast to 27 countries of vastly differing economic performance employment levels etc

Freedom of movement became people vacating one country en mass not to work but become citizens ! How can that work ?
Funnily that is the answer to reform
A top tier which holds the Euro and freedom of movement and a second tier for developing countries where working freedom of movement alone exists and where they hold a B Euro
Maybe even a market only tier where the proceeds can help the developing countries tier
Then in 10 to 20 years as those developing countries succeed they too can enter the top tier

As it stands it's doomed to fail but I stress that will not suit us either
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Old 9th Dec 2016, 19:19
  #5360 (permalink)  
 
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Well if the Labour Shadow Chancellor is anything to go by as was seen and heard on "Question Time" last night....The man is as thick as a "Bread Pudding" he almost sounded like the British Leyland "Red Robbo" chaps who caused BL to end almost
He's not shadow chancellor, John McDonnell is, agree with you that he wasn't very good.

Nigel was though.


Only a few months back this lying swine convinced many on here to vote Remain

Cameron defends decision to call Brexit referendum - BBC News

despite now saying

The Daily Telegraph reported that Mr Cameron believed the future euro was hanging in the balance.
"I see more trouble ahead," he said. "It is not working as it was intended.
"Some countries have seen decades of lost growth. Those countries have a single currency and they don't have a single fiscal system, a fiscal tax system. It creates bigger differences.
Call-Me-Dave should have renegotiated sensibly along the lines of peoples' concerns and made it crystal clear that he would campaign for a leave vote if these were not agreed.

Instead he made a few cosmetic wishy-washy requests and was still told to "go forth and multiply".

It's his own fault.



DC wanted a reformed EU but failed to get it
Are you sure he really wanted that (rather just than going through the motions)? There is no evidence for this.



Where we disagree is that we have to have inferred access to the EU markets and I want a controlled freedom of movement
What on earth is "controlled freedom of movement"? It's a contradiction surely!


What you need is a level playing field meaning that EU citizens have to qualify on the same basis as the rest of the world. Is iy fair that someone from Bulgaria can walk in no questions asked while someone from Australia cannot?
Not only that, but a European criminal can walk in no questions asked! How can that be right and sensible?

Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 10th Dec 2016 at 21:33.
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