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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Old 22nd Nov 2016, 21:40
  #4341 (permalink)  
 
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I'm mildly surprised that O'Leary was even allowed at a meeting with UK ministers....

Irish isn't he....With an Irish AOC of Convenience....

So what the hell has it got to do with him what happens to UK airlines and companies....
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 21:43
  #4342 (permalink)  
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I get the idea a lot of people are still in denial and think if they sqeam and sqeam and sqeam, Brexit won't happen.

Wake up and smell the coffee.....
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 21:46
  #4343 (permalink)  
 
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ORAC: Brexit could have happened on the 24th June. Smell the coffee.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 22:06
  #4344 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post
sffp: OMG, I also dislike MOL but you quote the Daily Express. I don't know which is worse. As I've said before quoting the daily express is like quoting Roy of the Rovers when discussing Premier league football.
Nope, I was quoting the EU minister

David Davis says EU Brexit negotiator meeting 'a good start' - BBC News

and here the BBC quote him saying the same thing

Mr Verhofstadt said he wanted an exit deal completed before the next European Parliament elections in 2019.


Feel free to pick away at that one as well.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 22:09
  #4345 (permalink)  
 
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You can almost imagine how many Leave and no doubt many many Remain voters are going to choke up on reading this one

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-credit-suisse
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 22:36
  #4346 (permalink)  
 
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Political deadlock over Brexit could halt flights between the UK and Europe, according to the chief executive of Ryanair, who warned that Britain’s aviation industry is being “walked off a cliff” by the government.

Michael O’Leary said that “mildly lunatic optimism” on the part of the government was masking the risks the UK faced from leaving the EU, with an assumption that it could quickly negotiate new bilateral agreements.

O’Leary said it was a “plausible risk” that no bilateral deal for the airline industry would be forthcoming in time. “Everyone is underestimating in the UK the political situation in Europe. You can see a set of circumstances on the day of Brexit when nobody is flying between the UK and Europe. Even interim arrangements have to be approved by the European parliament

At the Airport Operators Association conference in London, O’Leary lambasted ministers for acting “like Dad’s Army”. He said: “These guys have no idea where they’re going for the next two years and the problem is that in the absence of any discussions with the Europeans on Brexit they’re all talking to themselves.

“They haven’t got a clue. There is no prospect of an interim deal.

“If you listen to the Germans, the Dutch or the French you’re going to get screwed into the floor.”

Speaking on Monday at the conference, transport secretary Chris Grayling gave an assurance that aviation would be “prioritised” in Brexit negotiations.

But O’Leary said that a meeting last week between industry leaders, including Ryanair, the Brexit minister David Davis and aviation minister Lord Ahmad, had confirmed his fears for the sector.

He countered: “That’s what they say to all the boys ... They clearly have no priorities.”

O’Leary warned: “The European airports have seen this an opportunity to win more business away from the UK. Unless there’s some significant change the UK is going to walk itself off a cliff.”

He said that for planning airline schedules, “I need to know by March next year what’s going to happen in Britain in summer 2019. There isn’t a politician who knows that.”

O’Leary’s warnings were echoed in more sober terms by a Brussels-based international airports association. Olivier Jankovec, the chief executive of ACI Europe, warned that there was a lot of “wishful thinking” from ministers and the aviation industry.

He said: “A lot of people might assume in the end it will be fine. At present it is still somehow wishful thinking. The UK will have to negotiate the terms and conditions and won’t be covered by EU agreements. It is doubtful that some airlines will be able to fly freely.”

Jankovec said that hopes of a special deal for aviation to remain in the EU single market for aviation could be thwarted. “I wish we could single out aviation and separate it but from what I’m hearing in Brussels things don’t look like they are going this way.”

Willie Walsh, the chief executive of British Airways’ parent company, IAG, said he was less concerned about the effects of Brexit but warned: “Our negotiating position is not as strong as people might think. I do think that Europe will see this as an opportunity to damage the UK.”

He said that in a bilateral deal over flying rights struck last month with China, “we didn’t get very much of what the UK wanted. That worries me.”

However, he said there was no prospect of BA’s owning group being broken up after Brexit, as O’Leary had suggested. Walsh said that IAG had “tested and robust” structures in place to deal with restrictions on international ownership of airlines.
HUSSAR

What he says about the government with no clue acting like a Dads Army is probably about right. This is all looking like a giant mess
Yes RyanAir are Irish an thats the problem their main bases are in the UK
Easy Jet are IN the UK but planning and already moving bases and maintenance into the EU

I cannot see how they all can legally operate? Anymore than I could start an AOC operation with a N reg Jet

maybe instead of Dads Army it should be Mays Army ( Brexit means ahhhh? blank Brexit. Those EU don't like the cold steel up em

Oh well retro to hols in Blackpool and Brighton pre Benidorm

Last edited by Pace; 22nd Nov 2016 at 22:50.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 23:43
  #4347 (permalink)  
 
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What he says about the government with no clue acting like a Dads Army is probably about right. This is all looking like a giant mess
Yes RyanAir are Irish an thats the problem their main bases are in the UK
Easy Jet are IN the UK but planning and already moving bases and maintenance into the EU

I cannot see how they all can legally operate? Anymore than I could start an AOC operation with a N reg Jet

I agree with you - it's highly unlikely that both the UK Government and the EU currently have a plan which consists of little more than 'Let's start by asking for everything' and 'Let's start by denying everything'. Idiots, the pair of them, for their complacency in thinking the UK would vote 'REMAIN' and not preparing for the possibility and its consequences of an 'OUT' vote given that they both had 12 months notice that the referendum was going ahead.

Negotiations really need to start tonight, but with the EU refusing to start until after Art 50, and the UK courts holding up Art 50, everyone will suffer eventually and needlessly.

As for O'Leary and Easy....

It's a problem for them, of course, but I find it really difficult to have any sympathy for O'Leary....He's fought with the EU often and long enough when it didn't suit him while at the same time pocketing millions of their handouts when it did suit him; flouted EU rules on employee contracts and employee / employer Social Security obligations; and milked the UK market via the EU's Single Market rules. Who knows, maybe with him out of the the UK > EU markets, Easy will be able to fill his place to make up for the loss of their intra-EU business - if it ever comes to that, which I'm sure it won't as there are just as many EU airlines who want and need access to the UK market as there are UK airlines who want and need access to the EU, so I'm fairly sure agreements for Air Transport will be both quickly and soon sorted, although that might just be UK <> EU and exclude 3rd level Freedoms, which, of course, will exclude Ryanair from anything other than the Ireland <> UK market. I'm actually looking forward to how this one pans out....

As regards the EU regulations for an AOC, etc....It's always struck me as pretty daft to insist that any airline wanting an AOC from an EU country must be majority owned by EU citizens - as I'm fairly sure that any publically quoted company, such as IAG, would have institutional shareholders from all over the world, especially offshore wealth management and pension funds, many of which are registered outside the EU. Do IAG or Lufthansa know the domicile of all their shareholders, both institutional and private ? And if they did find out that non-EU domiciled shareholders were more than 51%, do you think they'd admit it ?

Your own example with N reg aircraft - the solution which I've seen happen is for the aircraft's owners to open an EU subsidiary in say, Luxemburg, transfer ownership of the aircraft from the, say, Bermuda company to the Luxemburg company, new lease between the same operator and the new owner, and business as normal. Although a bit more difficult if you're already the owner, it can still be done through a sale and leaseback with, say, a Luxemburg bank.

Last edited by Hussar 54; 22nd Nov 2016 at 23:55.
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 23:46
  #4348 (permalink)  
 
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Brexit will either collapse get thrown back to the public or we end up with brexit with freedom of movement
Well if it get thrown back to the people it will probably be in the from of a General Election which would mean May gets returned by an even larger mandate and UKIP possibly getting more seats at the expense of Labour. That would then give her government a cast iron mandate and then what would you do.

But hypothetically let me pose this one to you Pace. You say that the UK voted to leave but didn't specify what type of leave they wanted. If the vote was the other way, could you possibly see Cameron entertaining the cry that the UK voted to remain but didn't say what type of remain they wanted?
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Old 22nd Nov 2016, 23:56
  #4349 (permalink)  
 
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Lol. Imagine that. 51/49 remain. Well that's it sorted for a generation .. let's move on
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 00:18
  #4350 (permalink)  
 
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Lol. Imagine that. 51/49 remain. Well that's it sorted for a generation .. let's move on
Yep totally agree, the people have spoken no further need to discuss. It would be interesting if we had another referendum that went the other way. Could we ask for best of 3
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 00:25
  #4351 (permalink)  
 
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But hypothetically let me pose this one to you Pace. You say that the UK voted to leave but didn't specify what type of leave they wanted. If the vote was the other way, could you possibly see Cameron entertaining the cry that the UK voted to remain but didn't say what type of remain they wanted?
Of course not he would have run with it the same as Brexit have done claiming will of the people. The EU would have taken that as a green light for further loss of sovereignty, further centralisation etc etc etc

But Rob I didn't vote remain and I didn't vote Brexit because I could see it was going to go to a UK sails off into the distance alone sort of Brexit
You can go through my posts pre referendum and you wont find one which promoted us sailing off

The problem is no one expected out and for decades the EU has taken over our own laws or rather become our own laws.
Companies based here are so interconnected with the EU thats its almost impossible to extract ourselves fully without fatal damage

Hence the next downer will be she will open a can of legal worms with this Supreme Court mistake as most opinion is saying she will lose
I also am getting very suspicious on the EU pushing for the 14 months. We are being set up probably to go with no deal collapse our economy and strip the assets

The only way it could work is in a soft Brexit with almost what we have now.
That might not be as repugnant to you if you think on it.

A We have to get to an out position in the best shape possible. Go hard Brexit and I doubt after further crashes in the pound and our economy we will ever make it across the brexit finish line.

Go hard Brexit and the EU will play hard with a likely no agreement. It will all end in tears and punch ups, As the big companies told May one day we are trading the next we cannot so huge company crashes

We don't have a plan because the Conservatives are divided one half clamouring for full market access the Fox Gove demanding Theresa may tells the EU to sod off and cut all connections. Poor woman pulled from pillar to post no wonder she doesn't have a brexit direction

Hence if you want to catch a trout with your hand you don't dive in full force into the river! you move slowly and tickle it

Go for the softest Brexit, the banks are happy, industry is happy, the world markets are happy. We have no plan anyway so this way you get out.As we have no real plan or direction surely its better to stick to what we know and thats being almost in the EU

Once out its then easier to start changing things tiny bit by bit. We then have all the time in the world to modify that Brexit

You don't spook the markets you don't divide the nation and eventually you get what you want but step by tiny step

This way rather than by trying to catch the trout by diving into the river your more likely to drown that way and all you will catch is a cold at best

One last thought Rob. i am really surprised May went for the supreme court appeal. She would have probably drummed up support to pass art 50 without
Maybe the Supreme Court is her way out unscathed blaming the Judiciary for the collapse of Brexit if the Government loose again?

So if she is really clever she will tell the EU that she must have full market access will agree with freedom of movement but expect the EU to reform it or we will be forced to reform it ourselves in the near future. She will tell them that she has to meet the referendum wish so we must be out and then bit by bit by bit She changes things

Last edited by Pace; 23rd Nov 2016 at 01:02.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 02:17
  #4352 (permalink)  
 
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Contrary to some theories being aired, businesses will not go bust the moment the UK leaves the EU, with or without negotiated agreements.

So long as the appropriate VAT payments and/or tariffs are applied, nothing changes. Any UK taxes will be reimbursed against taxes paid abroad on exports, as was done in the past to avoid double taxation. Imports will be taxed in the UK and EU exporters reimbursed by their governments to avoid them being subject to double taxation.

This just creates more paperwork, or more likely the computerised equivalent, so quite a few admin and computer type jobs created in the UK and EU to support the beaurocracy. Then there are the border checks, customs, naval patrols, airborne surveillance, maintenance of all the new equipment. Jobs for everyone!

Everybody wins, except the consumer who will pay higher prices in the High Street. Employment up, higher wages due to a restricted labour market, reduced consumer demand. Just what a Chancellor would order.

MPs are not paid to have personal opinions, they are elected to Parliament to represent the views of their constituents. While they might express a personal view to the media, when it comes to the crunch, they had better walk through the correct division door or they know they will be looking for a new job come election time.

As for potential trade embargoes? Well you could always buy Cuban cigars in the USA if you knew where to look. The most powerful nation on earth couldn't stop imports from one of the most impoverished. Wherever there is a demand, trade will continue and possibly flourish.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 06:13
  #4353 (permalink)  
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" That's what separates us, I have absolutely nothing to gain from my Leave vote, not 1 single thing"

Number of votes cast in the EU referendum....33, 577, 342.

Number of voters who voted without any thought as to any personal benefit or detriment to themselves........1

Number of voters beating a path to the door when the post arrives in the hope of getting an MBE for selfless service to the Nation......1

Number of voters lacking any principles that may influence their voting....1

Number of voters who are classed as selfish........33, 577, 341

Meanwhile, "Economics for Beginners" Chap1, Page 1.

" This just creates more paperwork, or more likely the computerised equivalent, so quite a few admin and computer type jobs created in the UK and EU to support the beaurocracy. Then there are the border checks, customs, naval patrols, airborne surveillance, maintenance of all the new equipment. Jobs for everyone!

Everybody wins, except the consumer who will pay higher prices in the High Street. Employment up, higher wages due to a restricted labour market, reduced consumer demand. Just what a Chancellor would order


Now there's a truly ring endorsement for the benefits of leaving.....presumably, unlike the rest of us, you don't class yourself as a consumer and will be blissfully unaffected by rising prices and the cost of living overall.

A basic understanding of economics isn't really one of your strongpoints it seems.

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 23rd Nov 2016 at 06:50.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:20
  #4354 (permalink)  
 
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Pace, does this cap fit?

The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:34
  #4355 (permalink)  
 
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KnC, I've read your post a few times but cannot find a link to the Guardian,please could you correct your post.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:37
  #4356 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kungfu panda View Post

I am relaxed about it though, I take the view that Brexit will not happen because in Britain common sense does tend to prevail. The hysteria generated by the press does take some beating though.
I hold an alternative view in that I do not believe that any government, let alone a Tory government would deliberately seek to damage the country if Brexit was as bad as being suggested here by the Remoaners.

The vote was close enough that there is more than enough wiggle room for the government to 'fudge' the whole Brexit thing, especially if you add in the supposed notion that another vote would bring a massive Remain win.

The fact that the government are going full throttle at it suggests one of two things to me.

They already know that Art 50 is never going to be allowed to be enacted because of the incessant attacks from the Remoaners and are simply playing it out.

They have a plan that is going to take us out of the EU and see us prosper on both the EU and world markets.

If the EU have no need for us, if we really are that bothersome neighbour who they just want to see the back of how come they are fighting so hard to keep us as opposed to simply showing us the door and waving us goodbye?

What is it that frightens them so that they feel the need to be bullying us in this manner, could it be abject Fear at what the EU future looks like if we make a clean and successful break?
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:47
  #4357 (permalink)  
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Now about "no talks till after A50 declared".........

UK close to deal on expats? rights in EU - POLITICO

UK close to deal on expats’ rights in EU


EU leaders could strike a deal on post-Brexit residence rights of British expats living in other member states as soon as at next month’s European Council meeting in Brussels, the Telegraph reported.

Sources in the British government told the newspaper that only several of the 27 EU leaders have to agree on the deal, which would offer a solution to Britons, living in uncertainty since the June 23 referendum decision to leave the bloc. Under a “reciprocal rights” deal between the U.K. and the EU, the expats will be granted the right to remain abroad after Brexit, the Telegraph reported late Tuesday........,
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 07:50
  #4358 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Now about "no talks till after A50 declared".........

UK close to deal on expats? rights in EU - POLITICO

UK close to deal on expats’ rights in EU


EU leaders could strike a deal on post-Brexit residence rights of British expats living in other member states as soon as at next month’s European Council meeting in Brussels, the Telegraph reported.

Sources in the British government told the newspaper that only several of the 27 EU leaders have to agree on the deal, which would offer a solution to Britons, living in uncertainty since the June 23 referendum decision to leave the bloc. Under a “reciprocal rights” deal between the U.K. and the EU, the expats will be granted the right to remain abroad after Brexit, the Telegraph reported late Tuesday........,
But I thought Brexit was all about shutting our borders and sending all those bloody foreigners home........

Who would of thunk it eh.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 08:25
  #4359 (permalink)  
 
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Is this thread proving that pilots can be rather clueless?
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 08:59
  #4360 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Trossie View Post
Is this thread proving that pilots can be rather clueless?
I am not so sure about that, in general pilots are 'smarter than the average bear'. The one thing that post after post on here does confirm is that pretty much everyone those who voted Remain did so out of worry about loss of PERSONAL wealth and absolutely jack all else.

They will often disguise it with some faux hand wringing about 'everyone' but what they actually mean is 'me'.

Breaking it down Leavers voted as they did with the best intentions of the country as a whole at the heart of their decision whereas every single Remoaner post on this thread has had personal wealth at its core.
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