Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > PPRuNe Social > Jet Blast
Reload this Page >

Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

Closed Thread

Old 17th Feb 2018, 08:35
  #26741 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Brighton
Age: 64
Posts: 9,472
How are you going to relocate to another country service sector jobs like catering or construction jobs like bricklaying? - good trick if you can do it.
ORAC is online now  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 09:17
  #26742 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: South Beds
Posts: 69
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post

The Dutch, being decidedly more realistic as always, have clearly decided to be pro-active here. The British ?......well we will probably recruit another 10 customs officers ( any of you chaps thinking of applying ? ) and contract the rest out to G4S paying the minimum wage.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ms-netherlands
K&C.

You should really choose your links with a bit more care. Before I left Breda this morning I asked my Dutch oppo what was the SP on this Pieter Omtzigt politician chap. When Bram had stopped laughing and wiped his eyes we navigated the language barriers and came to an understanding that he is a self serving publicist and a klootzak. He then mentioned his finest hour..

In 2017, media in Netherlands described how fake news of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash were propagated with the support of Omtzigt who introduced a Russian man as an "eyewitness" of the crash on a public expert debate in May 2017. The man, who was an asylum-seeker from Ukraine, never witnessed the crash and his speech, texted to him by Omtzigt prior to the interview, repeated one of the Russia-promoted versions of Mig jets downing the Boeing
From Wiki.

Currently having breakfast in Adinkerke before catching the ferry at Dunkerque back to Blighty. Sallyann, I've checked, and the Brandy is actually cheaper in ASDA.

WilliumMate is online now  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 10:17
  #26743 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Currently within the EU
Posts: 308
That clip from Auf Wiedersehen Pet brings an interesting thought with it.
In the 80`s they were talking about British builders working in Germany. Now of course the situation has reversed, it's all about Polish builders coming to the UK.

I expect that could be turned into a case for or against Brexit, according to your point of view. But something has certainly changed.

Last edited by Sallyann1234; 17th Feb 2018 at 10:28.
Sallyann1234 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 10:37
  #26744 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 65
Posts: 782
WilliumMate
You should really choose your links with a bit more care. Before I left Breda this morning I asked my Dutch oppo what was the SP on this Pieter Omtzigt politician chap. When Bram had stopped laughing and wiped his eyes we navigated the language barriers and came to an understanding that he is a self serving publicist and a klootzak. He then mentioned his finest hour..
If you judge politicians, and Pieter Omtzigt is a Dutch politician since years, on his willing or unwilling misinertpretation matters for the own or his parties advantage, then you might find out that there us a whole lot of them in the same basket.

Here is the mentioned story.
https://dutchreview.com/news/interna...e-netherlands/

The message and resulting question remains:
Will Brexit cause increasing border controls at Dutch and UK harbors ( and sure in othhers to), and has the UK initiated meassures to mitigate asociated problems. Pieter Omtzigt put numbers on the hiring requirement for future customs duties, and despite his failure in having fallen to and even assisted in Russian manipulation of the MH17 shoot down I see no lack of credibility in this case.

Last edited by RetiredF4; 17th Feb 2018 at 11:42.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:34
  #26745 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Mexico
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
The bit you missed in the otherwise standard format lament and subliminal inference concerning immigrants.

Long before their arrival, UK management, not for nothing being noted for incompetence and self serving avaricious greed, were quite happy to pay the workforce the minimum they felt they could get away with whilst ensuring shareholders / dividends, plus their own self worth, were suitably recompensed.
What is this obsession you have with immigrants? - if you have an excess of labor it doesnt matter if they are immigrants or indigenous, the economic effects are the same.

If you want to increase productivity then you need to restrict access to labor.
Highway1 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:45
  #26746 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: In the boot of my car!
Posts: 6,009
If you want to increase productivity then you need to restrict access to labor.
Wow that is a very socialist principal ?
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
All it does is increase costs and can mean increased cost with less productivity and even less quality ?

So with your thinking getting rid of Polish builders will increase the productivity of the remaining workforce ? How ?

I would suggest the opposite ? Restricting workforce will lead to increased cost with less productivity and less quality ?

Last edited by Pace; 17th Feb 2018 at 14:55.
Pace is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 15:14
  #26747 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Mexico
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by Pace View Post
Wow that is a very socialist principal ?
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
All it does is increase costs and can mean increased cost with less productivity and even less quality ?

So with your thinking getting rid of Polish builders will increase the productivity of the remaining workforce ? How ?

I would suggest the opposite ? Restricting workforce will lead to increased cost with less productivity and less quality ?
No, you have that totally wrong. If labor is plentiful and therefore cheap then there is less incentive for companies to invest in automation and extra training. France achieves high productivity by having costly employment taxes and also making it very difficult to lay off staff. Therefore companies will do anything to increase production without employing more people. Of course this also has the effect of creating a high unemployment rate (twice the UK) but you cannot increase productivity without any side effects.
Highway1 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 15:41
  #26748 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 65
Posts: 782
Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
No, you have that totally wrong. If labor is plentiful and therefore cheap then there is less incentive for companies to invest in automation and extra training. France achieves high productivity by having costly employment taxes and also making it very difficult to lay off staff. Therefore companies will do anything to increase production without employing more people. Of course this also has the effect of creating a high unemployment rate (twice the UK) but you cannot increase productivity without any side effects.
Simple answers are seldom true.

Productivity: a key concept in Economics

What caught my eye in relation to physical productivity was the following part:
"Higher productivity can be attained through adequate levels of earnings; higher job security; higher education and life-long training, including on-thejob training; good working conditions ó a safe and healthy working environment, an appropriate balance between work intensity and job autonomy and greater employee participation and empowerment, including social dialogue; and better work-life and gender balance. These can strengthen human capital formation, including firm-specific human capital, and increase motivation, commitment and effort. They can reduce accidents, absenteeism and stress, induce creative effort, foster cooperation and generate positive externalities on co-workers"
I'm at a loss how that could be achieved by reducing the available workforce.

But let's see how this will work on a small scale. An house owner is in need of a plumber. With a choice of several plumbers available he will try to choose the one with the best reputation, the one that does the job in shortest time and at a good price. The choosen one will try to deliver his best work to stay in business. His asset is his high productiviy.

If only one plumber is available in town you have to choose him regardless of the quality, because you have no choice. He can work slower, deliver worse quality and charge more without any negative fallout. He will be less productive.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 15:46
  #26749 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England
Posts: 3,369
Originally Posted by Pace View Post
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
If a business can achieve something cheaper with labour, it will use labour. If it can achieve the same thing cheaper with investment in kit, it will use kit. "Restricting labour" means there's less labour available, which will naturally result in higher wages, which for some businesses will mean it's cheaper to buy kit. Which they will do, until the balance is restored.

Thus resulting in higher productivity as measured in terms of output per unit of labour employed, because they're producing the same output with less labour. (But possibly lower productivity measured in terms of output per capital employed, as they've got more capital tied up in kit.)
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 15:52
  #26750 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Mexico
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by RetiredF4 View Post
Simple answers are seldom true.

Productivity: a key concept in Economics


None of which contradicts anything I said. There is nothing there that remotely suggests that increasing labor supply leads to higher productivity.

But let's see how this will work on a small scale. An house owner is in need of a plumber. With a choice of several plumbers available he will try to choose the one with the best reputation, the one that does the job in shortest time and at a good price. The choosen one will try to deliver his best work to stay in business. His asset is his high productiviy.

If only one plumber is available in town you have to choose him regardless of the quality, because you have no choice. He can work slower, deliver worse quality and charge more without any negative fallout. He will be less productive.
I'm not sure why you would think that I was advocating monopoly suppliers. Of course a monopoly is a bad idea - the UK has had great experience of that with all the nationalised industry disasters over the years.

You have to remember what productivity is - it is output per hour worked. So if you reduce your headcount and keep the same output (by investing in technology and training) then your productivity improves - no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
Highway1 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 17:07
  #26751 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England
Posts: 3,369
Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
Well, I'm sure they have actually - a plumber may for example be able to deliver higher productivity by hiring a book-keeper rather than doing all the paperwork himself.

Example: plumber spends 4 hours per day plumbing, 4 hours per day on paperwork, productivity 50% (in terms of plumbing delivered for hours worked). Hires an administrator for two hours a day (because a professional administrator can do the paperwork twice as fast as the professional plumber). Now between them they're doing 8 hours per day plumbing, 2 hours per day paperwork, productivity 80% (in the same terms).
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 17:09
  #26752 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 65
Posts: 782
Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
[/url]

None of which contradicts anything I said. There is nothing there that remotely suggests that increasing labor supply leads to higher productivity.
You are missunderstanding my post. It was intended to add with pointing to different aspects of productivity, therefore the reference. The question was, if reducing the labor supply would lead to higher productivity. And the answer is no, not alone.


I'm not sure why you would think that I was advocating monopoly suppliers. Of course a monopoly is a bad idea - the UK has had great experience of that with all the nationalised industry disasters over the years.
It is the balance between labor demand and labor force available and - remeber the part I copied from the reference, which should have given you an hint about my sincer intent- the social and ecomic environment the labor happens. Brexiters assume a surplus labor force as cause for lower productivity, I showed that the opposite extreme of a labor force deficit can also be the cause of lower productivity.

You have to remember what productivity is - it is output per hour worked. So if you reduce your headcount and keep the same output (by investing in technology and training) then your productivity improves - no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
Output per hour worked is physical productivity. The unmotivated and unproductive worker will not increase his physical productivity due to new technology, but the investment for new technology adds as capital productivity to overall productivity.


But in the context of Brexit discussion none of the above is the decisive single factor, as we are looking at the long term economic cycle.

Business cycle behaviour

Economic productivity usually shows a pro-cyclical behaviour, while at the same time it is necessary to distinguish smaller sub-phases and wider multiplicity of paths than in the case of other variables:

Just after high peaks, GDP slowing dynamics is not immediately matched by employment. Productivity per worker falls.

As far as recession takes momentum, firms begin to dismiss workers in attempt of reducing losses. This move should increase productivity again, but dismissed workers reduce their consumption and GDP contract further. The net effect on productivity depends on the speed and strength of the two factor.

When recovery begins, once again employment is lagging, with minor or no job increases ("jobless recovery"). Accordingly, there is a drastic improvement in productivity and productive capacity utilization. These developments positively impact on profits and on the willingness of firms to invest.

Depending on institutional incentives, firms can opt for an unbalanced mix of the following strategies:
1. to better exploit existent employment and massively use overhead, so that per-worker productivity rises dramatically, with higher wages for the few worker employed (if overheads are paid better than normal hours);
2. to enlarge employment proportionally to output, keeping productivity stable;
3. to invest in labour-saving machinery, with a lagged increase of productivity and, potentially, a negative impact on employment (which is even more likely if outsourcing to other countries is chosen).

Depending on the aggregated effect of these decentralized choices, productivity will more or less increase with GDP rise.

At peaks, productivity is much higher than in troughs.
My basic message was and still is: Simple answers are seldom true.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 17:31
  #26753 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: In the boot of my car!
Posts: 6,009
Devil

If you work twice as hard as Jack by eliminating you how do you increase productivity by retaining lazy Jack
More choice means just that as well as competition which will bring costs down for the employer as some will work equally hard or even harder for less money

There are two aspects quality of work and productivity
If the employer pays more he should expect an increase in one or the other

There are better ways of increasing wages without limiting choice
One is requiring a training qualification even for a painter

Two is by increasing the minimum wage

Trying to increase pay by limiting immigration limits employer choice and his ability to choose what he considers the best
Pace is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 17:42
  #26754 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: South Beds
Posts: 69
Originally Posted by RetiredF4 View Post
WilliumMate
The message and resulting question remains:
Will Brexit cause increasing border controls at Dutch and UK harbors ( and sure in othhers to), and has the UK initiated meassures to mitigate asociated problems.
We have to separate import tariffs, which are a tax on imports, from other customs duties. The advance in technology from when we were outside the customs union will make things a lot easier. From what I can gather if there are import tariffs imposed the majority of the paperwork will be on line with the driver having the usual manifest. ANPR technology linking number plates with loads can flag up any issues with paperwork. By doing all of the preparation on line the customs officers will do mainly what they do now. Random or intelligence led stop and searches. Another method suggested was for a barcode thingy on the manifest to be scanned which would then prove all was well or otherwise.

With the majority of the EU belonging to Schengen entry into one will be entry into all and the vast majority of traffic will be through French ports and borderless travel within Schengen. French ports may need more customs officers which the UK should help fund but likewise other EU recipients of UK exports should help as well.

If people put as much effort and thought into finding solutions as flagging up potential problems then things will run more smoothly, but that requires acceptance that we are leaving.
WilliumMate is online now  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 17:46
  #26755 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Cambridge, England
Posts: 3,369
Originally Posted by WilliumMate View Post
If people put as much effort and thought into finding solutions as flagging up potential problems then things will run more smoothly
But they haven't, and it's too late now - anything not already in system test, now, today, won't be ready in time.
Gertrude the Wombat is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 18:01
  #26756 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: South Beds
Posts: 69
Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
But they haven't, and it's too late now - anything not already in system test, now, today, won't be ready in time.
Well, if the proposed transition period comes into effect it will be three years.

Trade will continue without a doubt, the only question will be on what terms. As I've remarked before if there are restrictive measures put into place and that leads to job losses in EU countries, then watch the respective governments start banging on the doors in Brussels.
WilliumMate is online now  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 18:02
  #26757 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Germany
Age: 65
Posts: 782
Originally Posted by WilliumMate View Post
We have to separate import tariffs, which are a tax on imports, from other customs duties. The advance in technology from when we were outside the customs union will make things a lot easier. From what I can gather if there are import tariffs imposed the majority of the paperwork will be on line with the driver having the usual manifest. ANPR technology linking number plates with loads can flag up any issues with paperwork. By doing all of the preparation on line the customs officers will do mainly what they do now. Random or intelligence led stop and searches. Another method suggested was for a barcode thingy on the manifest to be scanned which would then prove all was well or otherwise.

With the majority of the EU belonging to Schengen entry into one will be entry into all and the vast majority of traffic will be through French ports and borderless travel within Schengen. French ports may need more customs officers which the UK should help fund but likewise other EU recipients of UK exports should help as well.

If people put as much effort and thought into finding solutions as flagging up potential problems then things will run more smoothly, but that requires acceptance that we are leaving.
I'm no expert there, but I when driving the Highway from Germany to Basel / Switzerland I see what happens every day prior the border with 5 Km of lorries waiting for their time. Many of them btw are in transit from an EU member to another EU member, just plombed lorries and the need to check that they are still ok.

Whatever electronic means you have, whatever you import or export, once outside the single market the trading partners have to check that each lorry contains what it says on the manifest, and that the standards of the products are met.

You are free to guess the increase of time necessary against the average 2 minutes per lorry at the moment.
RetiredF4 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 18:21
  #26758 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Mexico
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by RetiredF4 View Post
You are missunderstanding my post. It was intended to add with pointing to different aspects of productivity, therefore the reference. The question was, if reducing the labor supply would lead to higher productivity. And the answer is no, not alone.
It does if you try to maintain output at the same level



I showed that the opposite extreme of a labor force deficit can also be the cause of lower productivity.
But again - nobody is advocating monopoly suppliers (at least I hope they are not)

My basic message was and still is: Simple answers are seldom true.
LOL - who was suggesting the answer was simple?. Say we followed the French route and increased productivity that way - great unless you are one of those unemployed.
Highway1 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 18:24
  #26759 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Mexico
Posts: 74
Originally Posted by Pace View Post

There are better ways of increasing wages without limiting choice
One is requiring a training qualification even for a painter

Two is by increasing the minimum wage

Trying to increase pay by limiting immigration limits employer choice and his ability to choose what he considers the best
Well both those are just similar ways of increasing the employment costs of labor so that it makes more sense for companies to invest in technology - which is exactly the same effect as restricting supply of Labor but with more unemployment.

Great if you are working, not so good if you are not.
Highway1 is offline  
Old 17th Feb 2018, 19:19
  #26760 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: In the boot of my car!
Posts: 6,009
Highway1

Strangely I watched a program on the future of Robotics

Going into the future we could get to the point that manual Labour is no longer required and that Robotics take over a lot of both domestic chores and workplace chores

I am sure that era will come leaving mere mortals to be decision makers
In some ways that is a scary thought as we all need an identity and pride in our work as well as the ability to mix in the workplace

Already many are working more from home and donít in many cases need to be even near the centre of that work
What will that leave us all to do leisure activities ?

A bit off topic but I am sure 30 to 50 years ahead the idea of work as we know it will change
Pace is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service