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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Brexit: The telephone box hampsterwheel

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Old 16th Feb 2018, 15:40
  #26741 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Golf-Sierra View Post
Unless of course you think about it and realise that the wages in your sector would have gone down anyway owing to businesses relocating to lower cost ecnonomies or competition from foreign companies. You might even realise that FOM actually helped you keep a job, albeit perhaps a lower paid one. But that is perhaps better for you and your community than losing it alltogether?
How are you going to relocate to another country service sector jobs like catering or construction jobs like bricklaying? - good trick if you can do it.
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Old 16th Feb 2018, 15:49
  #26742 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
Enlightenment ?....good question to which I do not profess to know the answer because if I did, I would be at the beck and call of the political and business elites.......my phone remains silent and my email inbox empty in this respect.
It sounds to me as though you're happy for our country to have belonged to the EU - that has "ever-closer union" as one of its stated aims - without knowing the political road map that will direct the EU's future path. The UK has had very little say in guiding strategy.. despite the fact that we've long been one of the major net contributors to the EU budget (as well as being a significant player on the international stage). The development of EU strategy falls within the bailiwick of the (unelected) Commission - guidance being provided by the Franco-German axis.
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
What I do know however, is that the UK has progressed as a society by being part of the EU and my preference was for that progress to continue.

The club analogy.

The problem generally arises with members who are set in their ways, have their own little cliques and feel nothing should change that may affect their parochial little world.....enter something, and this word seems to be gaining prominence since you kindly introduced it to us.....progress.
I think you'll find that you yourself introduced the notion of progress in your post #26764:
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
any form of societal progress
Yes, the UK is set in its ways - we're fortunate to have enjoyed parliamentary democracy for several hundred years. One of the features of parliamentary democracy is that the prime minister may be removed from power whenever he loses the confidence of a majority of the ruling party or of the parliament. Before you discard our democratic traditions, you might take note of what Tony Benn said on the subject. He famously argued that those in positions of economic, social and political power should always be asked the following five questions:
Ask yourself in an idle moment how the likes of Juncker and Tusk could be ejected from office by the people.
Prior to the parliament of England, we had the Magna Carta.. which, in one of its clauses, gave all ‘free men’ the right to justice and a fair trial. Some of Magna Carta’s core principles are echoed in the United States Bill of Rights (1791) and in many other constitutional documents around the world, as well as in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) and the European Convention on Human Rights (1950). So if that's the UK being set in its ways, long may it continue.
Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
Once these luddites have departed in a fit of petulance, the club generally improves.
As far as I'm aware, the UK's vote carried considerable influence within the EU, the only problem being we couldn't actually dictate terms and conditions to the other members, much as the powers that be ( and some of the population ) feel we have an unassailable right to do because .....we're British.
You clearly are in favour of the current situation where the Franco-German axis drives the strategy.. which, as ORAC pointed out earlier, works very much to their advantage.

Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
It's difficult not to be able to understand the term " ever closer union " when the term is remarkably definitive.
As you're clearly unable to decrypt the "ever-closer union" phrase, it's safe to assume from your replies that, despite your bluster, that you really have no idea what it means.
You've previously claimed here that those who voted Leave did so out of a yearning for a soft-focus fifties Britain and the halycon days of Empire, or that we're all racists or xenophobic - when the reality was simply that we believe in our sovereign right to self-determination.
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Old 16th Feb 2018, 16:30
  #26743 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Andy_S View Post
As requested.

As to "not having any credibility", in your eyes of course it won't.........
Well that's averted pistols at dawn or a front page apology in the Times then.

Thank you anyway, however, you seemed to have missed your answering the question yourself in your introductory line and last paragraph.

The bits in between simply chronicle how the EU has developed over the years, nothing more.

The bit about having an anthem however, well, lets just say I don't really think these nations are going to be at the forefront of rendering it....


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Old 16th Feb 2018, 19:46
  #26744 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
How are you going to relocate to another country service sector jobs like catering or construction jobs like bricklaying? - good trick if you can do it.
Yes, true. But then there are other jobs which you can move. Not every service sector job requires you to be physically present to render that service. And this has the knock on effect of decreasing demand for other services - if you close a factory or an office you no longer need caterers do you. And then people become laid off and join the supply pool of unskilled labour - driving wages down. When you shift low skilled jobs out of the country you also end up moving skilled jobs such as supervisors, managers, technicians.

I believe the UK has quite a history when it comes to entire industries collapsing owing to poor productivity and lack of competitiveness. How devastating was the effect of those events? Could they be avoided if you had sufficient supply of labour?
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Old 16th Feb 2018, 21:26
  #26745 (permalink)  
 
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sidevalve

You've previously claimed here that those who voted Leave did so out of a yearning for a soft-focus fifties Britain and the halcyon days of Empire, or that we're all racists or xenophobic - when the reality was simply that we believe in our sovereign right to self-determination.
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Old 16th Feb 2018, 21:53
  #26746 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Golf-Sierra View Post
I believe the UK has quite a history when it comes to entire industries collapsing owing to poor productivity and lack of competitiveness. How devastating was the effect of those events? Could they be avoided if you had sufficient supply of labour?
Well the UK's poor productivity has been driven in large part by having access to an unlimited supply of Labor. There is not the incentive for companies to invest in mechanization and training when they can just pick up the phone and call in another 10 workers for tomorrow. Added to that we have a tax system that encourages low productivity through topping up low pay through tax credits. Why become more productive when labor costs are subsidized by the taxpayer?
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 04:02
  #26747 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
Well the UK's poor productivity has been driven in large part by having access to an unlimited supply of Labor. There is not the incentive for companies to invest in mechanization and training when they can just pick up the phone and call in another 10 workers for tomorrow. Added to that we have a tax system that encourages low productivity through topping up low pay through tax credits. Why become more productive when labor costs are subsidized by the taxpayer?
The bit you missed in the otherwise standard format lament and subliminal inference concerning immigrants.

Long before their arrival, UK management, not for nothing being noted for incompetence and self serving avaricious greed, were quite happy to pay the workforce the minimum they felt they could get away with whilst ensuring shareholders / dividends, plus their own self worth, were suitably recompensed.

A slight understatement in today's Guardian ....."risks a rift ".....the rift is already there and about the size of the Grand Canyon. As for "deep rooted ideologies,", presumably she was referring to her own party here.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...tizens-at-risk

However, great news on the employment front !

First will be the conversion of Kent into the worlds largest truck stop, that's a major infrastructure project in itself even before we get to staffing and support roles and then, the more prestigious role of HM Customs. Given the alleged "unlimited supply of labour" these jobs will be gone within minutes of them being advertised !

The Dutch, being decidedly more realistic as always, have clearly decided to be pro-active here. The British ?......well we will probably recruit another 10 customs officers ( any of you chaps thinking of applying ? ) and contract the rest out to G4S paying the minimum wage.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ms-netherlands
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 07:35
  #26748 (permalink)  
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How are you going to relocate to another country service sector jobs like catering or construction jobs like bricklaying? - good trick if you can do it.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 08:17
  #26749 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post

The Dutch, being decidedly more realistic as always, have clearly decided to be pro-active here. The British ?......well we will probably recruit another 10 customs officers ( any of you chaps thinking of applying ? ) and contract the rest out to G4S paying the minimum wage.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ms-netherlands
K&C.

You should really choose your links with a bit more care. Before I left Breda this morning I asked my Dutch oppo what was the SP on this Pieter Omtzigt politician chap. When Bram had stopped laughing and wiped his eyes we navigated the language barriers and came to an understanding that he is a self serving publicist and a klootzak. He then mentioned his finest hour..

In 2017, media in Netherlands described how fake news of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 crash were propagated with the support of Omtzigt who introduced a Russian man as an "eyewitness" of the crash on a public expert debate in May 2017. The man, who was an asylum-seeker from Ukraine, never witnessed the crash and his speech, texted to him by Omtzigt prior to the interview, repeated one of the Russia-promoted versions of Mig jets downing the Boeing
From Wiki.

Currently having breakfast in Adinkerke before catching the ferry at Dunkerque back to Blighty. Sallyann, I've checked, and the Brandy is actually cheaper in ASDA.

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Old 17th Feb 2018, 09:17
  #26750 (permalink)  
 
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That clip from Auf Wiedersehen Pet brings an interesting thought with it.
In the 80`s they were talking about British builders working in Germany. Now of course the situation has reversed, it's all about Polish builders coming to the UK.

I expect that could be turned into a case for or against Brexit, according to your point of view. But something has certainly changed.

Last edited by Sallyann1234; 17th Feb 2018 at 09:28.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 09:37
  #26751 (permalink)  
 
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WilliumMate
You should really choose your links with a bit more care. Before I left Breda this morning I asked my Dutch oppo what was the SP on this Pieter Omtzigt politician chap. When Bram had stopped laughing and wiped his eyes we navigated the language barriers and came to an understanding that he is a self serving publicist and a klootzak. He then mentioned his finest hour..
If you judge politicians, and Pieter Omtzigt is a Dutch politician since years, on his willing or unwilling misinertpretation matters for the own or his parties advantage, then you might find out that there us a whole lot of them in the same basket.

Here is the mentioned story.
https://dutchreview.com/news/interna...e-netherlands/

The message and resulting question remains:
Will Brexit cause increasing border controls at Dutch and UK harbors ( and sure in othhers to), and has the UK initiated meassures to mitigate asociated problems. Pieter Omtzigt put numbers on the hiring requirement for future customs duties, and despite his failure in having fallen to and even assisted in Russian manipulation of the MH17 shoot down I see no lack of credibility in this case.

Last edited by RetiredF4; 17th Feb 2018 at 10:42.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 13:34
  #26752 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
The bit you missed in the otherwise standard format lament and subliminal inference concerning immigrants.

Long before their arrival, UK management, not for nothing being noted for incompetence and self serving avaricious greed, were quite happy to pay the workforce the minimum they felt they could get away with whilst ensuring shareholders / dividends, plus their own self worth, were suitably recompensed.
What is this obsession you have with immigrants? - if you have an excess of labor it doesnt matter if they are immigrants or indigenous, the economic effects are the same.

If you want to increase productivity then you need to restrict access to labor.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 13:45
  #26753 (permalink)  
 
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If you want to increase productivity then you need to restrict access to labor.
Wow that is a very socialist principal ?
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
All it does is increase costs and can mean increased cost with less productivity and even less quality ?

So with your thinking getting rid of Polish builders will increase the productivity of the remaining workforce ? How ?

I would suggest the opposite ? Restricting workforce will lead to increased cost with less productivity and less quality ?

Last edited by Pace; 17th Feb 2018 at 13:55.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:14
  #26754 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
Wow that is a very socialist principal ?
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
All it does is increase costs and can mean increased cost with less productivity and even less quality ?

So with your thinking getting rid of Polish builders will increase the productivity of the remaining workforce ? How ?

I would suggest the opposite ? Restricting workforce will lead to increased cost with less productivity and less quality ?
No, you have that totally wrong. If labor is plentiful and therefore cheap then there is less incentive for companies to invest in automation and extra training. France achieves high productivity by having costly employment taxes and also making it very difficult to lay off staff. Therefore companies will do anything to increase production without employing more people. Of course this also has the effect of creating a high unemployment rate (twice the UK) but you cannot increase productivity without any side effects.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:41
  #26755 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
No, you have that totally wrong. If labor is plentiful and therefore cheap then there is less incentive for companies to invest in automation and extra training. France achieves high productivity by having costly employment taxes and also making it very difficult to lay off staff. Therefore companies will do anything to increase production without employing more people. Of course this also has the effect of creating a high unemployment rate (twice the UK) but you cannot increase productivity without any side effects.
Simple answers are seldom true.

Productivity: a key concept in Economics

What caught my eye in relation to physical productivity was the following part:
"Higher productivity can be attained through adequate levels of earnings; higher job security; higher education and life-long training, including on-thejob training; good working conditions a safe and healthy working environment, an appropriate balance between work intensity and job autonomy and greater employee participation and empowerment, including social dialogue; and better work-life and gender balance. These can strengthen human capital formation, including firm-specific human capital, and increase motivation, commitment and effort. They can reduce accidents, absenteeism and stress, induce creative effort, foster cooperation and generate positive externalities on co-workers"
I'm at a loss how that could be achieved by reducing the available workforce.

But let's see how this will work on a small scale. An house owner is in need of a plumber. With a choice of several plumbers available he will try to choose the one with the best reputation, the one that does the job in shortest time and at a good price. The choosen one will try to deliver his best work to stay in business. His asset is his high productiviy.

If only one plumber is available in town you have to choose him regardless of the quality, because you have no choice. He can work slower, deliver worse quality and charge more without any negative fallout. He will be less productive.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:46
  #26756 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
How on Earth does restricting Labour increase productivity ?
If a business can achieve something cheaper with labour, it will use labour. If it can achieve the same thing cheaper with investment in kit, it will use kit. "Restricting labour" means there's less labour available, which will naturally result in higher wages, which for some businesses will mean it's cheaper to buy kit. Which they will do, until the balance is restored.

Thus resulting in higher productivity as measured in terms of output per unit of labour employed, because they're producing the same output with less labour. (But possibly lower productivity measured in terms of output per capital employed, as they've got more capital tied up in kit.)
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 14:52
  #26757 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RetiredF4 View Post
Simple answers are seldom true.

Productivity: a key concept in Economics


None of which contradicts anything I said. There is nothing there that remotely suggests that increasing labor supply leads to higher productivity.

But let's see how this will work on a small scale. An house owner is in need of a plumber. With a choice of several plumbers available he will try to choose the one with the best reputation, the one that does the job in shortest time and at a good price. The choosen one will try to deliver his best work to stay in business. His asset is his high productiviy.

If only one plumber is available in town you have to choose him regardless of the quality, because you have no choice. He can work slower, deliver worse quality and charge more without any negative fallout. He will be less productive.
I'm not sure why you would think that I was advocating monopoly suppliers. Of course a monopoly is a bad idea - the UK has had great experience of that with all the nationalised industry disasters over the years.

You have to remember what productivity is - it is output per hour worked. So if you reduce your headcount and keep the same output (by investing in technology and training) then your productivity improves - no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 16:07
  #26758 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
Well, I'm sure they have actually - a plumber may for example be able to deliver higher productivity by hiring a book-keeper rather than doing all the paperwork himself.

Example: plumber spends 4 hours per day plumbing, 4 hours per day on paperwork, productivity 50% (in terms of plumbing delivered for hours worked). Hires an administrator for two hours a day (because a professional administrator can do the paperwork twice as fast as the professional plumber). Now between them they're doing 8 hours per day plumbing, 2 hours per day paperwork, productivity 80% (in the same terms).
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 16:09
  #26759 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Highway1 View Post
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None of which contradicts anything I said. There is nothing there that remotely suggests that increasing labor supply leads to higher productivity.
You are missunderstanding my post. It was intended to add with pointing to different aspects of productivity, therefore the reference. The question was, if reducing the labor supply would lead to higher productivity. And the answer is no, not alone.


I'm not sure why you would think that I was advocating monopoly suppliers. Of course a monopoly is a bad idea - the UK has had great experience of that with all the nationalised industry disasters over the years.
It is the balance between labor demand and labor force available and - remeber the part I copied from the reference, which should have given you an hint about my sincer intent- the social and ecomic environment the labor happens. Brexiters assume a surplus labor force as cause for lower productivity, I showed that the opposite extreme of a labor force deficit can also be the cause of lower productivity.

You have to remember what productivity is - it is output per hour worked. So if you reduce your headcount and keep the same output (by investing in technology and training) then your productivity improves - no company anywhere has tried to increase productivity by increasing their headcount.
Output per hour worked is physical productivity. The unmotivated and unproductive worker will not increase his physical productivity due to new technology, but the investment for new technology adds as capital productivity to overall productivity.


But in the context of Brexit discussion none of the above is the decisive single factor, as we are looking at the long term economic cycle.

Business cycle behaviour

Economic productivity usually shows a pro-cyclical behaviour, while at the same time it is necessary to distinguish smaller sub-phases and wider multiplicity of paths than in the case of other variables:

Just after high peaks, GDP slowing dynamics is not immediately matched by employment. Productivity per worker falls.

As far as recession takes momentum, firms begin to dismiss workers in attempt of reducing losses. This move should increase productivity again, but dismissed workers reduce their consumption and GDP contract further. The net effect on productivity depends on the speed and strength of the two factor.

When recovery begins, once again employment is lagging, with minor or no job increases ("jobless recovery"). Accordingly, there is a drastic improvement in productivity and productive capacity utilization. These developments positively impact on profits and on the willingness of firms to invest.

Depending on institutional incentives, firms can opt for an unbalanced mix of the following strategies:
1. to better exploit existent employment and massively use overhead, so that per-worker productivity rises dramatically, with higher wages for the few worker employed (if overheads are paid better than normal hours);
2. to enlarge employment proportionally to output, keeping productivity stable;
3. to invest in labour-saving machinery, with a lagged increase of productivity and, potentially, a negative impact on employment (which is even more likely if outsourcing to other countries is chosen).

Depending on the aggregated effect of these decentralized choices, productivity will more or less increase with GDP rise.

At peaks, productivity is much higher than in troughs.
My basic message was and still is: Simple answers are seldom true.
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Old 17th Feb 2018, 16:31
  #26760 (permalink)  
 
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Devil

If you work twice as hard as Jack by eliminating you how do you increase productivity by retaining lazy Jack
More choice means just that as well as competition which will bring costs down for the employer as some will work equally hard or even harder for less money

There are two aspects quality of work and productivity
If the employer pays more he should expect an increase in one or the other

There are better ways of increasing wages without limiting choice
One is requiring a training qualification even for a painter

Two is by increasing the minimum wage

Trying to increase pay by limiting immigration limits employer choice and his ability to choose what he considers the best
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