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The EU - in or out? This is the hamsterwheel.

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The EU - in or out? This is the hamsterwheel.

Old 27th Jun 2016, 04:31
  #4741 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
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Down here in the Antipodes we are having yet another general election,due on Saturday.
I live in an electorate that for the past 30 years has voted, by 68% last time, for the same party. The result is a foregone conclusion that this electorate will vote exactly the same way however on Saturday I will have to take myself off to the polling station,a mere 2 minute walk away,and vote.If I do not at least turn up there I will be hauled in front of the magistrates and fined for non attendance.
I'm seriously thinking of launching an attempt at getting a petition for a second election for all those,like myself,who will be unhappy at the result which I know will happen.
Could any 'remainders' out there give me a heads up on how to organise such a petition
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:00
  #4742 (permalink)  
 
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Anyway, great news from our German cousins this morning.

Matthias Wissmann, of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), said: ‘Even if many “experts” are competing to paint the worst possible scenario, now is the time for calmness.

‘Every possible measure must be undertaken to enable the continued free movement of goods and services between the UK and the other EU countries. Following British departure from the EU, it will be in nobody’s interest to make the international flow of goods more expensive by erecting customs barriers between Britain and the European continent.’
I don't understand that Facebook post that's doing the rounds, Cameron made it quite clear Friday that Article 50 will be issued by the next Prime Minister, and this could be as late as October.

The referendum was the UK deciding what it wanted to do, the actual business itself happens at a time of our choosing; not when Juncker or Geldof want it.

"Leave" was not a political party, it was not required to have a "plan" in place. The plan begins now, and I would say we don't issue Article 50 until that plan is in place.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:18
  #4743 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by G0ULI View Post
Effluent Man

Your theory about Corbyn sounds very plausible. He seems like a nice enough chap.
You jest. He has the manner and look of a man, given any measure of power, would not hesitate to annihilate anyone who got in the way. You only have to look at his heros, IRA, Hamas, Castro etc. to see how he would confront dissent.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:22
  #4744 (permalink)  
 
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Ten years ago the EU were taking 55% of British exports. Now the EU takes about 45% of exports.
Fun question:

What percentage of the EU exports exactly go into the UK, compared to those 45 per cent?

Have a guess and try to understand the consequences.

Anyway, great news from our German cousins this morning.
Sure. But with the added costs that result from a free trade agreement vs. a common market - do you understand the difference between the two? Apparently not (like most people here, I regret to say).

So German cars will be more expensive in the UK and UK cars more expensive in Germany. No wait, there are no more British carmakers...

I would say we don't issue Article 50 until that plan is in place.
EU has said they will refuse to even talk with the Brits until they have triggered, so difficult to make a plan if the vital counterpart of any agreement won't speak with you about the "plan" (which, I shall hasten to add, does not even remotely exist and about which those in charge the leave campaign have no clue about at all - while more capable politicians will not committ political suicide only to sort this mess out).
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:36
  #4745 (permalink)  

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The reason Jo Cox was brought up was because of the deplorable behaviour still being displayed by our politicians, and no other reason.

Some of us thought that we would see more respect between our elected representatives after they realised how awful they had become to each other with all the bickering, bad behaviour and barracking they gave each other day in day out and it was time they all changed their ways. Come Friday morning, they were straight back to square one and it has continued since.

However, judging by some of the posts here, it's hardly surprising that things haven't changed.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 07:58
  #4746 (permalink)  

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Virginblue;
So German cars will be more expensive in the UK and UK cars more expensive in Germany. No wait, there are no more British carmakers...
People keep mentioning the German car industry as an example, but doesnt that just show what it's all about!!!

I'll wager that not many of those that voted on either side last week were planning on going out any time soon to purchase a Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, BMW, or Gumpert!

I'll accept that some may go for a VW, but VW are hardly trumps for integrity at the moment are they!

Volkswagen profit has tumbled 20% in the first three months of 2016 as it continues to grapple with fallout from the diesel emissions scandal.

Sales of VW-branded cars were particularly hard hit, with profit from that part of the business falling 83% to €73m from €514m last year.

VW shares fell 3% in Frankfurt to €133.57 and are down 40% over the past 12 months
VW profit tumbles 20% in wake of emissions scandal - BBC News
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 08:28
  #4747 (permalink)  
 
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People keep mentioning the German car industry as an example, but doesnt that just show what it's all about!!!
Those who understand the difference between a common market vs. a free trade zone know that you can exchange the word "cars" with pretty much any good (and to an extent also services) in this sentence...

So German cars will be more expensive in the UK and UK cars more expensive in Germany.
...because doing trade in a free trade area leads to higher transaction costs than doing trade in a common market ( and I am not even talking about the membership fee for the UK government to be allowed into the free trade area). A free trade area simply give you access to a market, but is does not mean that you sell goods and services on that market under exactly the same conditions as someone who acts from inside that market - because first of all, you need to bring those goods into that market from the outside.

Which again leads to the question who is facing the bigger challenge - the market that sells 45 per cent of its goods to the other side or that market that sells just 7 per cent of its goods to the other?

But I am sure Boris has a great plan up his sleeve, e.g. selling all the stuff that until now is exported into the EU to North Korea instead.

Last edited by virginblue; 27th Jun 2016 at 08:57.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 08:42
  #4748 (permalink)  
 
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Seems quite sad we can't now find someone of a suitable calibre to run the country.
It's like the headmasters gone home and left it to the six formers to run.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 08:56
  #4749 (permalink)  
 
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Virgin Blue, I keep seeing post after post from you that implies you know what is going to happen, what are your predictions?
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:02
  #4750 (permalink)  
 
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..or the headmaster has been run in for touching up lads in some dim and distant past.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:38
  #4751 (permalink)  
 
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Common sense would suggest get theFeck out of the EU...
To me, it's common sense to look at a map.

The U.S., China, India, Brasil, Russia, the EU, are all MUCH, MUCH bigger than the UK. It isn't the "British Empire" BREXIT, it's the UK BREXIT. The UK (and it could easily be England, NOT the UK!) has less of a chance competing in the global economy than the EU does.

But, common sense had nothing to do with the vote. People were scared, and they voted their emotions, which feels good. Too bad that the outcome is negative, and their positive feelings won't matter.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:39
  #4752 (permalink)  
 
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but I don't think 'taking back control' is going to pan out quite the way you had in mind
Good to see the intellectual elite know what we had in mind when we voted leave. Pity they didn't see the result coming, keep up the good work.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:45
  #4753 (permalink)  
 
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Boris will lead the way into a less favourable agreement that will change nothing

Well, one big thing will have changed, Britain won't be chained to the dictatorial, bloated pronouncements from the EU. More control will be applied to uncontrolled migration, legal and illegal.
The trade deals with them will be worse (no one know by how much) but the rest of the world has become a little more open. Business always continues, it never stops. Over time after the politicians have settled down and stop throwing their toys, they will hopefully get back to work following the mandate newly delivered by the majority of the people.


As for the Polish incidents - Britain did not get rid of the homegrown morons.


The U.S., China, India, Brasil, Russia, the EU, are all MUCH, MUCH bigger than the UK.

Size isn't everything. Brazil??
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:46
  #4754 (permalink)  
 
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The PM's resignation reveals he values party politics more than honouring the notion to do his best to serve the will of the electorate.

The electorate have made a choice, yet David Cameron would prefer to sabotage other politicians than serve the people.

Mickjoebill
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:56
  #4755 (permalink)  
 
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It looks like the amount of screaming, shouting and insults from the remain crowd might work, firstly Sturgeon appears to have decided that Scotland is not part of the UK and is looking at putting a legal block to the exit vote and she could care less if it annoys the English, also the commons/lords could vote to not accept the result, and finally one news report this morning claims Cameron has stated that Article 50 will not be actioned until a renegotiation of UK terms has been attempted which implies a second referendum would have to carried out.

It just shows that spoilt children who don't get their way just have to throw a big enough tantrum and the grown ups capitulate to keep the peace.

Also how will the remain team feel if we do stay in and we then get royally shafted by the EU, which we will as they have already demonstrated they are a vindictive shower, I don't suppose you will then cry foul in reverse and try to come out later as that won't work.

I only hope to god that common sense prevails and we stop all this rubbish and work together as a nation, if this all continues as it currently seems to be and democracy is thrown out, this will be more damaging to this country than the exit vote was in the first place, however just as the sun rises every morning (well until the sky falls in and England disappears into oblivion) I know this will not happen.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 09:58
  #4756 (permalink)  
 
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Good to see the intellectual elite know what we had in mind when we voted leave. Pity they didn't see the result coming, keep up the good work.
You don't need to be an intello to work out, in general terms, how many of the "leave" voters" were thinking were thinking.

There were the "I want to leave, regardless of the consequences" ..to whom yes, respect is due.

There were the "I want to leave, we will still able to trade with the EU in some way" (they were gambling).

There were the " I want to vote to leave, but I'd quite like to actually stay in the EU having negotiated a better deal" (they were gambling).

...and there were the "I liked Boris (Nigel) /I agreed with my mates on Facebook/ I didn't think it would change anything brigade" - and before you ask, that's not me trying to read minds or be intellectual, that's comments from members of the extended family over the weekend.. (to whom well....)
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 10:11
  #4757 (permalink)  
 
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Wiggy in response I will add this:

You don't need to be an intello to work out, in general terms, how many of the "remain" voters" were thinking.

There were the "I want to stay, regardless of the consequences" ..to whom yes, respect is due.

There were the "I want to stay, as we won’t be able to trade with the EU if we come out" (they did not actually know that, but are probably psychic).

There were the " I want to vote to remain, as I'd quite like to actually stay in the EU and try and negotiate a better deal" (they were gambling/living in cloud cuckoo land).

...and there were the "I liked Cameron/Osbourne (Sturgeon) /I agreed with my intelligent mates on Facebook/ I didn't think it would change anything brigade" - and before you ask, that's not me trying to read minds or be intellectual, that's comments from members of the extended family over the weekend.. (to whom well....)
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 10:37
  #4758 (permalink)  
 
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So the £ is recovering and the markets are stabilising.

All good, except we have not left the EU yet, in fact no one except Nigel Farage is quite willing to push the big eject button just yet. Its all 'no need to hurry' from Boris and Grove.
The "dog chasing he motorbike" quotes posted before sums it up.

When we do leave maybe 4-5 years down the line thats when it gets interesting, there will be maybe not a full on trade war but a cold trade
war, everything will become more expensive to import and export putting aside the increased bureaucracy at customs.
If perhaps you think the UK can do some 'wonder deal' it's is not going to happen, if it did other countries would want the same and the EU would destroy itself.

Take car manufacturing in the UK Nissan, Ford etc have all issued statements saying they will continually monitor the situation, (thats no firm decision yet to stay or go).
Currently 6 out of 10 cars made in the Uk go to Europe, (it used to 8 out of 10).

Car manufacturing is priced to the pence, margins are cut to the bone.
Now throw in additional taxation on exported models to the EU and what will Nissan etc do?, stay / go.
They will probably go the the government of the day stating, either you make up our shortfall or we are off.

You can bet every major business in the UK is currently planning for a what if scenario in 4-5 years time.

Last edited by DroneDog; 27th Jun 2016 at 11:55.
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 10:44
  #4759 (permalink)  
 
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Exrigger

I should have said the logic didn't work both ways, I was simply making the point (that I see you agree with) that working out the logic behind many a vote wasn't rocket science....that said having bounced my point back at me almost verbatim you seem to be claiming you have heard personally from "remainers" who have had second thoughts and wished they'd voted "leave" - is that correct?
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Old 27th Jun 2016, 10:45
  #4760 (permalink)  
 
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So German cars will be more expensive in the UK and UK cars more expensive in Germany. No wait, there are no more British carmakers...


Not quite true - the UK still builds a few upmarket models, not repmobile Audies and loud-boy BMWs I grant you, while the Nissan factory in Sunderland on its own builds more cars than the whole of Italy.

But a bit of background to what I mentioned the other night....

The European Investment Bank uses EU citizens money to, as they say on their own website -

The EU's bank

The EIB is the European Union's bank. We are the only bank owned by and representing the interests of the European Union Member States. We work closely with other EU institutions to implement EU policy.

A major player

As the largest multilateral borrower and lender by volume, we provide finance and expertise for sound and sustainable investment projects which contribute to furthering EU policy objectives. More than 90% of our activity is focused on Europe but we also support the EU's external and development policies


A couple of years ago, I turned up for a round of golf at my local club and was asked if a pair of English visitors could join us in a fourball....No problem.

In the bar after we'd finished, we get chatting about ourselves a bit more than we had during the round, and it works out the English guys used to have a small ( 200 people ) company that had 20+ years working with Ford in Southampton to design and supply bespoke tooling for the Ford Transit plant there.

In 2011, the European Investment Bank provided Ford ( a non-UK company ) with a € 100 million loan to build an extension to their existing production facility in Turkey ( a non-EU country ) so that Transit production could be switched from Southampton to Turkey and the Southampton factory eventually closed in 2013 with a loss of about 1,300 jobs and an estimated 1,500 jobs amongst local suppliers and sub-contractors - including those of the two English guys, one of whom ended up in personal bankruptcy.

Just another example of EUSSR's unbelievable modus operandi - at a time when there were 20+million unemployed in the EU, and everyone was struggling to get out of the sh*t of the Great Financial Fraud of 2008, the EU managed and EU taxpayer funded EIB provided a €100 million loan to a non-EU company to build production facilities in a non-EU country and add another 2,500+ EU citizens to the unemployed list.

As I'm sure that you're an EU Commisioner or employee in disguise, would you like to explain the what / why / how this happened ? Or simply choose from multi-choice selection below ?

1 - The EU continues to cosy up to Turkey to delay finally letting them have full membership, as that would be suicidal ?

2 - The EU told Ford that a loan would be possible, but not if any of their production facilities in Belgium or Germany would then have to close ?

3 - A reasonable amount of 'Consultancy Fees ' were paid to facilitate the granting of the loan ?


And you wonder why 'ordinary folks' throughout Europe have lost confidence in the EUSSR and want out ?
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