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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

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Old 15th Apr 2017, 22:20
  #1181 (permalink)  
 
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So Do They Really Have ICBMs

Can we estimate the visible mass on the trucks and add in some what if missile weights to assess total mass. Then do some finite element analysis for portion vibration frequencies over the wheel sets (visible in the film resolutions) to validate the hidden mass in the tubes?.

Course maybe one can assess the wheel squat on the road to make an assessment
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Old 15th Apr 2017, 23:17
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If they were fake missiles,they would probably be filled with water to make up their weight to the spec.of real ones
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Old 15th Apr 2017, 23:25
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Excellent question lomapaeso and one that Schilling at 38 North touched on.

He mentioned how a year or so ago that when the NKs were rolling out one of their newer missiles that all the analysts immediately tucked into this and that about the body structure, nozzles, etc. It was when some amateurs from China (I believe) started to comment on the vehicle that was transporting the rocket that they started to make progress. Tire size, number of bolts on the wheel, etc. Apparently some of the Chinese guys were familiar with this type of carrying platform as it was either a Chinese model or very similar.

I think Schilling's point was that while good analysts should be looking at these details, in the rush to figure out what was on display they overlooked some very good clues.

As for the John Hill school of it is always the U.S. that is bullying NK I would have thought we would have moved beyond that 6th form sophistry long ago. Irrespective of whether the US has offered the olive branch of a peace treaty or not, when you have a corpulent cad from Pyongyang threatening to turn your cities into seas of fire it gets to be both tendentious and worrisome.

The cousins have put up with that nonsense long enough. Trump, for all his unpredictability, has certainly set a fire under the trousers of the Chinese to step in. SK, Japan, and China all realize that the unbridled utterances of porky represent a serious threat to the stability of the region.

Yes, I know according to game theory he is acting in a rational manner to keep his regime afloat, but if it could ever get through his adipose larded cranium that perhaps there is a more acceptable way to move his country ahead.
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Old 15th Apr 2017, 23:32
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Does anyone seriously believe that one carrier group sent to Korean waters indicates that Trump is prepared to take out the North Korean nuclear threat? If this is his intention he is even dimmer than I thought. When the B52's B1 and B2 start being ferried to the area with Wild weasel squadrons then I will get worried.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 00:07
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No BC, I do not, nor do most others, believe that he will try to take down NK with just the air carrier group. As I have mentioned before, when government officials in SK decamp to other areas, SK activates its reservists (how else to handle the post-conflict situation without Korean speaking forces?), the U.S. moves more of its forces around, etc.

This first move is a prod. It apparently worked as the Chinese have sparked to life.

Of course I am not sitting there with the briefing books so who knows?
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 00:42
  #1186 (permalink)  
 
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More facts

ww.msn.com/en-us/news/world/analysis-here-are-the-missiles-north-korea-just-showed-off-one-by-one/ar-BBzSr8W?li=BBnb7Kz&OCID=msnHomepage

meanwhile in the last hours one of something was just launched and crashed

I personally doubt it was long range
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 02:48
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meanwhile in the last hours one of something was just launched and crashed

I personally doubt it was long range
Hey Lom,

I think we can agree that one sure the hell wasn't.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 04:28
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Bc

you do realize there are significant US forces in place already in SK along with the significant forces that SK has. There are also US forces in Japan.

I wouldn't be surprised if more assets made it in theatre, but there's a lot of capability in place.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 05:13
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When the B52's B1 and B2 start being ferried to the area with Wild weasel squadrons then I will get worried.
I dunno about the BUFFs and B1s, but the B2s stay right there in Missouri until they have a mission, then they leave like a black hole in the sky with whatever gifts they're taking to the other side of the world having been safely loaded at their home base. When they next shut the engines down 30 or so hours later, they're back at Whiteman.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 05:48
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Originally Posted by West Coast View Post
Bc

you do realize there are significant US forces in place already in SK along with the significant forces that SK has. There are also US forces in Japan.

I wouldn't be surprised if more assets made it in theatre, but there's a lot of capability in place.
Kadena, for example, home for the USAF's largest combat Air Wing. The JSDF and US Army began emplacing Patriot systems there in 2013 in response to NK's medium range missile tests in that general direction. China at the time began warning NK against such provocations, but they have continued. Then there's Guam, etc etc.

A Carrier Strike Group is a projection of power and, if hostilities do break out, a forward presence/in-your-face threat that the Norks would have to contend with on a tactical level and if used in support for a more strategic effort by USAF heavy bombers to destroy buried/hardened nuke facilities.

Nobody believes one CSG would act alone, but it's a force Fat Boy and his forces would have to defend against arriving over his head in minutes, not hours.

What we aren't seeing, of course, is that all of his submarine assets are being acquired, shadowed, and kept squarely in the crosshairs. If this thing kicks off, quickly sending those to the bottom out of sight may likely be the first shots fired.

Last edited by PukinDog; 16th Apr 2017 at 06:17.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 06:16
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Kim is in a similar position to Rhodesia's Prime Minister, Ian Smith in the late 1970s. A small, pariah state dependent on a larger neighbouring state which can pull the plug anytime it likes.

Ian Smith was quoted as saying "To the rest of the world I can say no, but not to South Africa." and the same applies to the North Korean leader regarding China.

Towards the end of the Rhodesian war, South Africa started choking off fuel and ammunition shipments to force Ian Smith to the negotiating table, and the Chinese will take similar measures.

The Chinese don't want large scale US military action next door with hundreds of thousands of refugees crossing over. Reunification of the two Koreas would have the Americans right up against their border.

Air China has already suspended flights to North Korea and stopped coal imports have been stopped. Asian style diplomacy is at work and a face saving solution is being hammered out. The Chinese are worried that President Trump might actually do something and they will be left sorting out the mess.

Fat Wun currently having his chain yanked by the Chinese and being advised that if he wants to remain in power he needs to back off.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 07:42
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Fat Wun currently having his chain yanked by the Chinese and being advised that if he wants to remain in power he needs to back off.

Yet in the last three days badhair has had a military parade showcasing long metal (could be cardboard) tubes, the goosestepper precision marching group and launched a missile that farted with a nuke tunnel test on the books. Kind of a slap in the Chinese face?
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 11:47
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Just wait until a missile test goes awry and crosses over the Chinese border.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 12:01
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Originally Posted by Metro man View Post
Reunification of the two Koreas would have the Americans right up against their border.
A reunified Korea would no longer require a US presence on the peninsula.

Whether they would totally withdraw is another matter. There would need to be a huge humanitarian effort to bring civilisation, democracy and deprogramming to a bewildered and expectant population. It would make the reunification of Germany look like a piece of cake.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 13:11
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Does anyone know if the chubby cheese monster attends every launch in
person ?
Wonder how many technicians are now dog food or artillery fodder after the latest triumphant demonstration of the global war lord (wannabee) weapon of huge disappointment?
Be lucky
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 13:28
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There are B-2 shelters at several places.....perhaps shuttle missions could/would be flown and facilitate a higher Sortie Tempo.


Originally Posted by 421dog View Post
I dunno about the BUFFs and B1s, but the B2s stay right there in Missouri until they have a mission, then they leave like a black hole in the sky with whatever gifts they're taking to the other side of the world having been safely loaded at their home base. When they next shut the engines down 30 or so hours later, they're back at Whiteman.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 13:32
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If Trump removes Kim it only puts him a place nearer the most dangerous leader in the world race.

Aside from that and the US considerable military might , which can go wrong at times , could they wipe out Kim and his generals and armed forces quickly enough to stop them from Nuking/Gassing /Chem Weapons /Shelling /Attacking the Seoul Inchon metro region which is home to 13M people and a large number of US and Japanese citizens .( 28,000 US military plus a good few dependents and civilians so lets say 38,000 and 40,000 Japanese)

Could easily have a million casualties in that area and how would that go down with the world.

Far far better to play a long game and let the Chinese get fed up with his antics and take him out one way or another but maybe its a rerun of Kissinger 'Madman' strategy where he told the Chinese and Russians that Nixon was nuts and would do something crazy if they didnt up their game or back down a bit on issues of the day. The difference this time is Trump sends the message himself( or, of course actually is crazy)
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 14:07
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Home from the Pub early are we?

Trump has proven he both listens to his Military and Intelligence Advisors.....and has his SecState engaged in serious discussions with the folks that matter. Add in the Vice President's current trip to Korea and Japan and understand there will be discussions with their leadership.

Trump will do only that which the consensus tells him to do.

Once he makes that decision he will delegate the necessary tasks to those whose job it is to carry them out. That is what he has done so far on other major issues and is his CEO background.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 14:56
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Originally Posted by pax britanica View Post
If Trump removes Kim it only puts him a place nearer the most dangerous leader in the world race.

Aside from that and the US considerable military might , which can go wrong at times , could they wipe out Kim and his generals and armed forces quickly enough to stop them from Nuking/Gassing /Chem Weapons /Shelling /Attacking the Seoul Inchon metro region which is home to 13M people and a large number of US and Japanese citizens .( 28,000 US military plus a good few dependents and civilians so lets say 38,000 and 40,000 Japanese)

Could easily have a million casualties in that area and how would that go down with the world.

Far far better to play a long game and let the Chinese get fed up with his antics and take him out one way or another but maybe its a rerun of Kissinger 'Madman' strategy where he told the Chinese and Russians that Nixon was nuts and would do something crazy if they didnt up their game or back down a bit on issues of the day. The difference this time is Trump sends the message himself( or, of course actually is crazy)
Playing the long game is what got the region in the situation it is in now; an unstable Dictator of a pariah State who became so by virtue of birth on the brink of obtaining deliverable nukes.

Most of the world has been quite content to ignore the threats and stated, unswerving goal to obtain nukes made by his grandpa and father because most of the world never felt it could it could happen or if it did, they wouldn't be affected. Most of the world hasn't been engaged in the heavy lifting along the DMZ while SK and the U.S. have been doing that for over 60 years. It's easy to say "play the long game" when you aren't sitting in SK or Japan next door to a demonstrably provocative lunatic who, if history of NK is any guide, will otherwise sit there for the next 20 or 30 years armed with nuclear weapons.

Even the long game comes to an end at some point, and given China's recent actions and general lack of objection after meeting with Trump, my bet is that they recognize Fat Boy's instability and focus on achieving nukes combined with the propensity to saber-rattle in the form of launching missiles against their wishes into the Japan's territorial waters has pushed it to the endgame. China knows that waiting to take out a nuclear-equipped Fat Boy themselves in 5 or 10 years time could very well have him pointing a few of them at Beijing, so they aren't going to be interested in that option.

Outside of South Korea, Japan, China and the U.S., who cares what the rest of the world thinks? They have very little at stake in the matter and outside a bit of toothless, UN Resolution wind-bagging most of the world has largely chosen to ignore the problem for over half a century.

Turning the current situation that has been brought to a head solely by the years-long, provocative actions of a demented little Dictator willing to carry on the family tradition of murdering his own to stay in power while threatening his neighbors into some sort of ego-spat between he and Trump is a sophomoric media narrative based on ignorance of long-standing U.S. policy that will not tolerate a nuclear-armed NK threatening the region and U.S. allies. Fat Boy was exhibiting his behavior long before Trump was on the scene.

Everyone knew the confrontation would arrive if NK continued the pursuit nuclear weapons and became successful. NK could have sailed happily along forever in their Stalinist, Cult of Personality Utopia if they had limited themselves to conventional forces and stuck to maintaining grip on power by lying about imminent threat of invasion from SK and the US. But they chose a different path, Fat Boy now attempting to showcase the capability to threaten not just SK but an entire region with a delusion he will be allowed to do so with a nuclear Big Stick. Unless he suddenly chooses to step away from this delusion, it will seal his own fate.

Last edited by PukinDog; 16th Apr 2017 at 16:25.
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Old 16th Apr 2017, 15:17
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It seems that the USA and China are working together to address the threat from NK, which seems to me to be the least provocative way to defuse things. China has the non-military influence to bring NK to heel, I'm sure, as virtually everything NK needs has to come via China.

North Korea nuclear programme: US 'working with China' on response - BBC News
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