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Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

Jet Blast Topics that don't fit the other forums. Rules of Engagement apply.

Meanwhile .. back in the Good 'ol NK ....

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Old 17th May 2018, 14:00
  #2281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Uncle Fred View Post
I think Bolton knew exactly what he was doing when he invoked Libya. I think he also knew that it would fire a rather powerful torpedo into the proceedings. If his intent is to derail any progress he seems to be taking the right steps. I have thoughts of a loose cannon rolling around the deck.
Let's be cynical for a moment: Trump hires Bolton knowing that the guy is an in-fighter/operator. Bolton tosses a few rocks in the pond that raises the stakes, and then the meeting goes south, and Trump can say "hey, it wasn't me who backed out" when the summit dies, stillborn ... not putting it past him.
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Old 17th May 2018, 14:37
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Let's be cynical for a moment: Trump hires Bolton knowing that the guy is an in-fighter/operator. Bolton tosses a few rocks in the pond that raises the stakes, and then the meeting goes south, and Trump can say "hey, it wasn't me who backed out" when the summit dies, stillborn ... not putting it past him.
Well of course .... that's the smart move if it comes to that.

Both Trump and Kim just sit by watching the ripples for a chance to play hard ball. If that doesn't work out in the arena of public opinion, then they reluctantly will have to meet and sit at each end of a long table while their kiddies fight it out along the sides.
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Old 17th May 2018, 18:13
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The honeymoon is over, it seems. Mr Kim has gotten somewhat irate with his neighbors to the south.
Pretty standard crybaby stuff from NK: throw tantrum, turn blue in the face, yell "look at what you made me do."
Ri Son Gwon, the North Korean negotiator, slammed South Korea for participating in military drills with the U.S., following up a series of statements on Tuesday when Pyongyang canceled talks with Seoul and threatened to cancel a planned summit with President Donald Trump.
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Old 17th May 2018, 20:15
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I don't believe Bolton's Libya comment was meant to cause Mr. Kim to abandon the meeting. It was an ignorant comment and a monumental miscalculation, no doubt about that, but the intention was likely his idea of telegraphing Trump's "tough negotiator" stance. It's yet another example of how Trump's huckster caliber "negotiating skills" are outclassed and outgunned in the world of international politics.

That is not to say Mr. Kim is some kind of strategic master, but the idea that two nut jobs might cancel each other out seems to be losing steam. The real story here is after snubbing several long-time allies and going back on our word on several international agreements, all the while sidling up to despotic dictators, Trump desperately needs at least one generally accepted positive check in the foreign policy accomplishments column. Thus far, there are none.

Mr. Kim was informed of our intention of proceeding with the joint military exercises, so his protestations fall somewhat flat. It could be his way of painting President Moon with his displeasure of Trump's ignorance regarding the Libya comment. Everything's a chess game with Mr. Kim, whilst on the American side, at least with this president, it seems more like checkers.
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Old 17th May 2018, 21:18
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The German press is reporting that Trump said today (Thursday the 17th) that if there is no agreement then he will use Libya as a model. So Mr. Bolton's comments seemed to have spilled the banks over into the President's thinking.

Looking for this in the British and American press so as to confirm this is an accurate quote.

Here it is in German should you wish: Donald Trump droht Kim Jong Un mit "Libyen-Modell" - SPIEGEL ONLINE
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Old 18th May 2018, 20:05
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Watching a programme on NK on Nat Geograpjic there was a clip of Kim Jong Un arriving somewhere on what looked like a VC10 but most likely a IL62.

Does Kim have a presidential Aircraft?

if so where does he fly to?
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Old 18th May 2018, 20:12
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Originally Posted by vctenderness View Post
Does Kim have a presidential Aircraft?
Listed here:- Air transports of heads of state and government.

More here:- http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/n...509-story.html

and here:- http://www.newindianexpress.com/worl...n-1812384.html

Last edited by G-CPTN; 18th May 2018 at 20:22.
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Old 18th May 2018, 20:13
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It has been reported that he is afraid of flying, like his dad. Thus train trips to China and Russia.
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Old 18th May 2018, 21:04
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He is supposed to be using an IL 62 to fly to Singapore. It may well have gone unserviceable for some reason and being a Russian aircraft there are no spares available. He may well not trust his engineer's botch up.

In the late 90s China Northwest were the last operators of the TU104M. At Tianjin airport there was a row of ex Aeroflot 104s being used as Xmas trees.
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Old 21st May 2018, 07:30
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Mr. Trump is realizing that this summit is not going to be nearly as quick and neat as he expected.

There is some question whether he will actually plunge into the briefing books.

The NORKS seem to have done their homework. Even if one is sympathetic that Trump is the victim of incessant cabals and deep state ursurpation, it is becoming clear this is more serious than anything else he has had to do heretofore, He needs to get ready for this or there won't be enough liberals and main stream media to blame if Kim out maneuvers him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/20/u...a-nuclear.html
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Old 21st May 2018, 11:49
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I don't think Trump will put up with the kind of obfuscating shenanigans associated with previous high level discussions between the two at the ole DMZ.
He's not a diplomat - he's a businessman - never to change.
If this is a real negotiation over a common table - not one all pre-done by aides on both sides - he will walk out if he senses the impossibility of progress and no forthcoming deal.
And he has said that is what he will do..
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Old 21st May 2018, 13:34
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He needs to get ready for this or there won't be enough liberals and main stream media to blame if Kim out maneuvers him.
Seems like he has come to the job with lots of experience with negotiations. I doubt the American people will hold it against him if he comes back with no deal.

However we do have a long memory of deals that left us looking for a hind tit to suckle on
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Old 22nd May 2018, 00:36
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Well, he can put up with it or not. Reality cares not a whit for what he prefers. The question is that if he storms petulantly out of the room then what? This is why the talk of what "liberals" will say is some of the stupiest, basest, crassest, and most uninformed speech ever. Trump owns this and amyone who can cut the Gordian Knot of the situation on the Korean Peninsula is worthy of commendation.

Diplomacy and statecraft are slow and incremental slogs. Look at the rows that were plowed before Nixon alighted in Peking to seal the deal.

Trump might have envisioned that by force of personality that he could "square things" and it would be nice if he could, but that is not often the recipe.

It is foolish speech saying liberals are at the source of this when you have a bomb thrower like Bolton chirping about Libya...to be followed by Trump invoking it as well. That is not conservative versus liberal posturing but the lack of being prudent.

The question again: What happens if he walks out? Does that mean that jaw-jaw is over and its time for war-war? Or will the Asians weigh in with a steady handed effort?
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Old 22nd May 2018, 00:45
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The question again: What happens if he walks out? Does that mean that jaw-jaw is over and its time for war-war? Or will the Asains weigh in with a steady handed effort?
for what if scenarios, just try answering your own question.as if you were in charge and try not to repeat the last 20 years all over again.

Don't be too quick to blame, just step up and lead, let the forum pick at your decisions
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Old 22nd May 2018, 00:56
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Diplomacy and statecraft are slow and incremental slogs
Right, that is how it's done. It's a façade of gentlemen being gracious and not really caring how time is passing other than if it is near lunch.
Status Quo. The way it has always been done.
Good for some, not good for most when it's important.
Things do not have to proceed at that uncomfortable pace, usually that of the slowest members of the convoy.
Trump has his own pace. Refreshing in some ways.
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Old 22nd May 2018, 21:02
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.
Will Rogers
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Old 22nd May 2018, 21:10
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Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
just step up and lead,
Ok, I'll bite.

Assuming that the United States would give me portfolio over this I would do the following:

- I would pore over the briefing books that have been prepared on this. Lots of rows to plow before I enlist others

- I would craft out a realistic set of goals--what is it that I want to achieve? Breaking things is fine if there is a re-build plan. I hate to use the word vision but what would it be in this case? What is possible?

- I would go into the "think tank" with the agency heads, principals, and subject matter experts. I would see if my goals match what is possible.

- I would draw up a list of what we don't have answers to. Could those questions be answered through internal agency research or would it depend on allied support?

- I would communicate with allied leaders to gain their input, level of commitment, etc. What political "cover" do they need to gain domestic support for what we wish to do? I don't want to undermine their efforts when going out on a limb for us. Dick Cheney was a master of alienating allies. His constant eff-off attitude and comportment turned both the French and the Spanish into bystanders. You cultivate allies, you do not dictate to them.

- I would ensure, as much as is feasible, that my administration is speaking with a unified voice. I well understand that there is the "good cop bad cop" routine that needs to be played and I also realize that strategic leaks are part of the game, but loose lips sink ships as we are seeing with Bolton (though I agree with the above posters that Bolton might have done this with a very definite purpose). Trying to craft cross-allied support needs means that we need to speak with one voice.

- I would dive deeply into what advantages Kim has and those that he does not. I would look carefully at what he is trying to do. In other words read the tea leaves.

- I would keep back-channels open

- I would take ownership. I would not sit and blame the Chinese. They cannot be easily managed and so we have to deal with their position as it is and not as we would wish it to be. Trying to play the good cop bad cop with them is a fool's errand.

- I would set aside the need for constant hosannas to be sung to me. The old adage of what is right and not who is right comes into play. it is not all about me--or so I learned after I turned thirty or even before.

- I would acknowledge that not all my predecessors were village idiots. If this problem were easily solvable then it would have been solved long ago. Use the good parts of what they had built and discard what is not working. This iterative process is how any major problems are tackled.

- As in any diplomatic pas-de-deux, I would probe which of the allied efforts are bearing fruit. Honey or the cricket bat? Again, that iterative process.

A start anyway...

Last edited by Uncle Fred; 23rd May 2018 at 02:42.
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Old 23rd May 2018, 01:53
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What Nobel Prize, Don?
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Old 23rd May 2018, 02:59
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He could still win the Nobel for Literature for The Art of the Deal
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Old 23rd May 2018, 04:12
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Fred

Do you not believe the elements of your piece have been tried?
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