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Douglas Carswell defects to UKIP

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Douglas Carswell defects to UKIP

Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:06
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Truth hurting, vulcanised?

UKIP's 2 or 3 MP's will achieve the square root of nothing before they disappear into irrelevance.

Milliband must be laughing his little socks off.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:30
  #22 (permalink)  
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" It's actually a seaworthy ship gaining more sailors by the day. "

You don't seem to understand the term....coffin ship.

May God, or any deity for that matter, bless her and all who sink in her.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:39
  #23 (permalink)  
 
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By all accounts (unusually) a thoroughly decent and principled man... he won't go far....

Seeing the Conservatives squirming and reiterating "no damage has been caused" on the BBC was highly amusing though.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:42
  #24 (permalink)  
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The success or otherwise of the by-election will determine whether other MPs will join him.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:49
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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It just looks very high risk.Carswell got just short of 23,000,Labour just under 11,000 and LD's 5,500.That suggests that,pro rata Labour will get around 15,000.Depends how the 23,000 splits.No UKIP candidate stood in 2010 so there isn't any support there to count on .Anything closer than a 2:1 split of the Tory vote will see Labour take it.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:53
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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CISTRS
The timing of the by-election is the decision of the Prime Minister, or local Conservatives.
You may be right but I believe that, by convention, the Chief Whip of the party whose MP held the vacant seat begins the procedure for a by-election by 'moving the Writ' in the form of a motion in the House of Commons. The motion is generally moved without debate
In this instance it will effectively be the Prime Minister's decision but only because Carswell is a Conservative MP.
It is possible, but unusual, for an MP from another party to move such a motion. However, it would be subject to the usual debate and vote.

By convention (I don't think it's a rule), the Writ is moved within three months of a vacancy occurring. However, once the writ is issued the timetable is fixed by law: The by-election must be held between 21 and 27 working days thereafter.

On a few occasions a seat has remained vacant for longer than six months before a by-election was called, but not many. The average period in recent times has been about 7 weeks, and even that figure was inflated by one by-election (West Belfast) which took about five months.


Can Carswell resign his seat?
I don't know if the law was changed in the 2013 reforms but the position used to be (and may still be) that MPs cannot directly resign their seat during the lifetime of a Parliament and the only means by which a seat could be vacated were through death, expulsion by resolution of the House or disqualification by accepting one of two nominal/fictional paid positions incompatible with membership of the House of Commons. One was (is?) Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds; I can't remember the other. The MP remained free to stand in the by-election.

Using that system, Prime Ministers have in the past delayed by-elections by delaying the MP's appointment to the incompatible office, but not often.

Disclaimer: I am not, and never have been, a constitutional lawyer and welcome correction if I'm wrong about any of the above.


An early by-election might suit both main parties as a means of assessing support for UKIP before the General Election.
Even if the Conervatives lose the seat to UKIP, it does not follow that they won't win it back in the General Election. Except in very safe seats, parties in power often lose by-elections because many people take the opportunity for a 'protest vote'.

Last edited by Flying Lawyer; 28th Aug 2014 at 18:09.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 17:57
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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Delaying the by-election would seem to be in contradiction of the Conservatives' statement that "no damage has been caused", and would presumably therefore play into UKIP's hands.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 18:30
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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Doubt Mr Cameron is much worried by a miniscule defection like this really. It will be forgotten in a week. Furthermore, if Alex Salmond gets his SNP way next month there will be 40 fewer Labour MPs in Westminster to bother him before too long.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 19:01
  #29 (permalink)  
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Both Mikhail Baryshnikov and Rudolf Nureyev defected, but they were only ballet dancers...?!

I have a personal preference for Viktor Belenko though. At least he brought along a MiG 25. Ultimately, perhaps the Conservatives will be grateful for this "defector to"...?! PS. Apologies in advance for the "laterally-minded" aviation content.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 19:38
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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Who? .
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 21:09
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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Victor Belenko,
Mig Pilot: The Final Escape of Lt. Belenko: Amazon.co.uk: John Barron: Books Mig Pilot: The Final Escape of Lt. Belenko: Amazon.co.uk: John Barron: Books

Regards, Den.
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Old 28th Aug 2014, 22:03
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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Flying Lawyer said
the only means by which a seat could be vacated were through death, expulsion by resolution of the House or disqualification by accepting one of two nominal/fictional paid positions incompatible with membership of the House of Commons. One was (is?) Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds; I can't remember the other.
Steward of the Manor of Northstead is the position you were trying to remember. I only remember it because we used to live in Northstead (Scarborough, N Yorks)
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Old 29th Aug 2014, 03:25
  #33 (permalink)  
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Flying Lawyer

Thanks for the clarification.
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Old 29th Aug 2014, 06:34
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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It's mathematically quite fascinating.Another potential problem is the current UKIP candidate is refusing to stand down.There appears to be around 40,000 votes to be had.With all the publicity this will most likely buck the trend of low turnout in By Elections.

I think it will be close because from the interviews so far on the telly the support seems quite evenly split.My prediction is Tory/UKIP/Labour grouped around the 12-14000 mark and the LD's on 1-2000.
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Old 29th Aug 2014, 08:07
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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Non-entity backbencher deserts party to join the freak show ( hierarchy not all its voters )- at least he had the guts to stand down and go for the by-election. Hey boys and girls, lets all sleepwalk into Ed at number 10. I guess only hope is for the Jocks to get their way next month so that Labour will lose 50 plus seats at Westminster so that Milliband will only get a year to 'spend, spend, spend'...........
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Old 29th Aug 2014, 08:39
  #36 (permalink)  
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A UKIP member says he will challenge Douglas Carswell to be the party's parliamentary candidate in Clacton.
Roger Lord says he was due to fight the Clacton seat at the general election before Mr Carswell's decision:-

BBC News - UKIP's Roger Lord to challenge Douglas Carswell for Clacton

Whilst Roger Lord claims first right of refusal, Douglas Carswell, being the respected sitting MP almost certainly has a better chance of election (even as an Independent).
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Old 29th Aug 2014, 12:35
  #37 (permalink)  

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Scaremongering from the Torygraph Ukip?s gain will damage the Eurosceptic cause - Telegraph
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