Scottish independence Hamsterwheel.
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Very close to the Theatre of Dreams!
Posts: 156
I believe Scotland will vote to leave.
As I just posted in the Brexit thread, the SNP do not know the outcome of the negotiations and will lokk pretty stupid if they leave, the UK gains access to the single market and Scotland are outside.
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by Rob Courtney
As I just posted in the Brexit thread, the SNP do not know the outcome of the negotiations and will lokk pretty stupid if they leave, the UK gains access to the single market and Scotland are outside.
I don't think that there is a hope in hell of a newly independent Scotland remaining within the EU under UK terms and conditions, and neither do the EU. They have repeatedly told Scotland that it would have to apply to join the EU as a new member state, no matter what. There just isn't a mechanism within the EU to allow the UK's membership to freely transfer to Scotland, plus the EU would probably want to seriously question what the cost might be of an independent Scotland joining as a member state that might pose an additional financial burden on the other member states.
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Hyeres, France
Posts: 1
The EU would find a way to fudge it for Scotland to join in. They'd love to be able to laud a country which would be prepared to risk everything to keep hold of its EU membership.
And they'll throw it into the mix when negotiating the UK's exit T&Cs, you can be sure of that.
And they'll throw it into the mix when negotiating the UK's exit T&Cs, you can be sure of that.
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Scotland
Posts: 91
SNP guy on the radio saying the EU will welcome Scotland as a "net contributor" to EU funds. Only because we are part of the UK you muppet. As a separate economy, we would be (very much) a net receiver. And the EU won't have anything from RUK so less in the kitty to start with.
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Very Low Orbit
Posts: 63
John McTernan has an interesting piece on this in the Telegraph:
The fundamental problems an independent Scotland would still face
His view is that the loss of £15bn per year from the rest of the UK would reduce Scotland's wealth by a seventh at a stroke, but on a per capita basis, the Scots would still be one of the wealthiest members if they joined the EU and would have to pay about an extra £1.5bn membership fee. And, of course, they would have to join the Euro.
I have no axe to grind here but it seems unlikely that anyone rational would vote for that.
The fundamental problems an independent Scotland would still face
His view is that the loss of £15bn per year from the rest of the UK would reduce Scotland's wealth by a seventh at a stroke, but on a per capita basis, the Scots would still be one of the wealthiest members if they joined the EU and would have to pay about an extra £1.5bn membership fee. And, of course, they would have to join the Euro.
I have no axe to grind here but it seems unlikely that anyone rational would vote for that.
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: SW England
Age: 72
Posts: 3,761
But do the counties South of the border want a "sovereign United Ireland"?
Back to Scotland. I'm not surprised Jeremy has changed his mind about a referendum. Somebody must have reminded him that once the 56 SNP MPs in the Commons get on the train back to Edinburgh, the opposition benches are going to look decidedly empty. Even he cant believe he is going to fill the spaces with more Labour MPs
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: West Wiltshire, UK
Age: 67
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by Mel Effluent
John McTernan has an interesting piece on this in the Telegraph:
The fundamental problems an independent Scotland would still face
His view is that the loss of £15bn per year from the rest of the UK would reduce Scotland's wealth by a seventh at a stroke, but on a per capita basis, the Scots would still be one of the wealthiest members if they joined the EU and would have to pay about an extra £1.5bn membership fee. And, of course, they would have to join the Euro.
I have no axe to grind here but it seems unlikely that anyone rational would vote for that.
The fundamental problems an independent Scotland would still face
His view is that the loss of £15bn per year from the rest of the UK would reduce Scotland's wealth by a seventh at a stroke, but on a per capita basis, the Scots would still be one of the wealthiest members if they joined the EU and would have to pay about an extra £1.5bn membership fee. And, of course, they would have to join the Euro.
I have no axe to grind here but it seems unlikely that anyone rational would vote for that.
There was also a constant stream of bluff and bluster from Salmond last time, especially whenever anyone questioned him about finance, yet even so 45% of those that voted opted to accept a great deal of financial hardship just to gain independence, and there is still a high level on support, at an emotional level, for independence, even now.
Whether or not the true state of Scotland's finances will be enough to cause some to change their minds by 2019 remains to be seen. I suspect it might, especially if there is a reduction in the RUK subsidy to Scotland between now and then, just to demonstrate what it means for each person in Scotland to pay £1000 a year more in taxes to have the same as they have now.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Bavaria
Posts: 99
Considering that the 'Better Together' campaign was substantially based on the argument that an independent Scotland couldn't be certain of remaining within the EU, it is no surprise that there is now call for another referendum.
Yet it seems highly unlikely that the Westminster government would have the bottle to permit the Scots another vote. Theresa May does not want to be the one responsible for the last stage of the meltdown of the British Empire. (Okay, not the final meltdown there'll still be Northern Ireland, Wales and the Falkland Islands left)
The ultimate destination of the FUK (Former United Kingdom) is surely to be the 51state. Move over your majesty. The Donald has his eyes on Buckingham Palace.
Of course, if Westminster refuses to sanction another binding referendum Holyrood could call an 'advisory' referendum. That could be most interesting.
Yet it seems highly unlikely that the Westminster government would have the bottle to permit the Scots another vote. Theresa May does not want to be the one responsible for the last stage of the meltdown of the British Empire. (Okay, not the final meltdown there'll still be Northern Ireland, Wales and the Falkland Islands left)
The ultimate destination of the FUK (Former United Kingdom) is surely to be the 51state. Move over your majesty. The Donald has his eyes on Buckingham Palace.
Of course, if Westminster refuses to sanction another binding referendum Holyrood could call an 'advisory' referendum. That could be most interesting.
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: The Winchester
Posts: 5,426
Hussar
Maybe, OTOH such action would encourage Catalonian and other separatist groups. Can't see that being particulalry popular in some capital cities so as a result I'm not sure the Scots can rely on "automatic" access/membership of the EU.....
We will see.
The EU would find a way to fudge it for Scotland to join in. They'd love to be able to laud a country which would be prepared to risk everything to keep hold of its EU membership.
We will see.
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Hyeres, France
Posts: 1
Originally Posted by wiggy
Hussar
Maybe, OTOH such action would encourage Catalonian and other separatist groups. Can't see that being particulalry popular in some capital cities so as a result I'm not sure the Scots can rely on "automatic" access/membership of the EU.....
We will see.
Maybe, OTOH such action would encourage Catalonian and other separatist groups. Can't see that being particulalry popular in some capital cities so as a result I'm not sure the Scots can rely on "automatic" access/membership of the EU.....
We will see.
Spain v Catalans + Basques should be a no-no....
Another small nation which will need hand outs from a reduced EU income should be a no-no....
Another admission into the Eurozone without, even, a Central Bank should be a no-no....
But I have this sneeky feeling that the EU would love the opportunity to stuff it to the UK and some compromise ( maybe Turkey style membership of the Customs Union ) would almost certainly be available to Scotland more easily and more quickly than makes economic and political sense.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: EU
Posts: 36
Last time I looked Scotland were part of the UK, bit of an own goal there Tom
It's time to take back control
Whose this Tom you keep alluding too ?
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: Hyeres, France
Posts: 1
My son-in-law-to-be has just sent me an email saying that Scottish Independence is an ideal solution to the UK's current BREXIT problems.
All the ' REMAINERS ' in England and Wales could simply move to Scotland where they could stay in the EU without having to worry about the life changing language, currency, cultural and climatic changes that a move to a continental EU country would inevitably bring on....A shame about the standard of football, though....
All the ' REMAINERS ' in England and Wales could simply move to Scotland where they could stay in the EU without having to worry about the life changing language, currency, cultural and climatic changes that a move to a continental EU country would inevitably bring on....A shame about the standard of football, though....
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Lincoln
Age: 67
Posts: 455
I know it is the Daily Mail:
EU and NATO both warn Scotland it will LOSE membership | Daily Mail Online
and then there is this:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...jects-scotland
Yet she seems totally oblivious to everything in her zeal to separate from England, hopefully the rest of the Scots will better understand what it means to leave and put her and her ilk back in their box, however I feel the rhetoric could win the hearts not the minds and she will get her dream ticket to nowhere land.
At least the issue of what currency to use will be resolved if they actually are allowed back into the EU, that will be the Euro then.
EU and NATO both warn Scotland it will LOSE membership | Daily Mail Online
and then there is this:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...jects-scotland
Yet she seems totally oblivious to everything in her zeal to separate from England, hopefully the rest of the Scots will better understand what it means to leave and put her and her ilk back in their box, however I feel the rhetoric could win the hearts not the minds and she will get her dream ticket to nowhere land.
At least the issue of what currency to use will be resolved if they actually are allowed back into the EU, that will be the Euro then.
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Hampshire physically; Perthshire and Pembrokeshire mentally.
Posts: 1,611
If Scotland has a just cause for independence because it "didn't vote for Brexit" what about London? Should it be an independent city-state? That's plain ridiculous. So it is for Scotland after 310 years of the Union.
A Plan for Mrs May:
1. Grant Wee Jimmie her neverendum - after the UK has left the EU.
2. This time Scots domiciled in the rest of the UK to be included in the franchise.
3. Call an immediate General Election to establish a solid Con majority.
4. Push ahead towards Brexit with renewed confidence following a resounding GE win.
5. Simultaneously love-bomb Scotland but remind everyone there that a vote for independence means no Barnett money, no £, no lender of last resort, a deficit of £15bn and rising, a national debt of circa £130bn and rising, deep spending cuts and large tax rises, withdrawal of all UK military assets, a hard border and tariffs to sell into England and Wales.
6. Sit back and watch the SNP implode.
A Plan for Mrs May:
1. Grant Wee Jimmie her neverendum - after the UK has left the EU.
2. This time Scots domiciled in the rest of the UK to be included in the franchise.
3. Call an immediate General Election to establish a solid Con majority.
4. Push ahead towards Brexit with renewed confidence following a resounding GE win.
5. Simultaneously love-bomb Scotland but remind everyone there that a vote for independence means no Barnett money, no £, no lender of last resort, a deficit of £15bn and rising, a national debt of circa £130bn and rising, deep spending cuts and large tax rises, withdrawal of all UK military assets, a hard border and tariffs to sell into England and Wales.
6. Sit back and watch the SNP implode.
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: EU
Posts: 36
I know it is the Daily Mail:
EU and NATO both warn Scotland it will LOSE membership | Daily Mail Online
EU and NATO both warn Scotland it will LOSE membership | Daily Mail Online
NATO membership , ehh let me see , Scotland is one of the most strategically placed countries on NATO's northern flanks and one of the major routes for Russian Subs entering the North Atlantic. Scotland would not be denied membership, NATO would be begging Scotland to join.
EU - Scotland has already been told it would receive favoured status in it's quest for membertship, the ah hem Daily mail reporting is so far behind the times it's nearly back to when it was supporting facists in Europe.
