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War in Australia (any Oz Politics): the Original

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War in Australia (any Oz Politics): the Original

Old 17th Mar 2015, 23:49
  #16761 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 543
Are we being a tad simplistic labelling the welfare-dependants in Australian society as the bottom of the food chain? Too many people who would (quite correctly) never consider themselves to be anywhere near the bottom of the food/social chain have become far too dependant on welfare in some of its far too many forms.

Child care is a case in point, but that's just one of them.

How many retirees do you know who drive a very nice car and live in a multi million dollar primary residence, but because they've been a bit creative in how they've invested their not inconsiderable assets, receive a full (or more often part) old age pension? I have one in my close family and I think it's plain wrong. He's organised his life to get a nominal pension so that he'll be entitled to all the pensioner rebates in council rates car rego etc. It's not a lot he gets each fortnight, but I know he's just one of many who could - and should - be totally independent of government in retirement and all those small payouts add up in to a considerable sum, a sum that should be going to people who need it.

Surely to God it would make more sense for the government to offer rebates on rates etc to people who are NOT on any government handouts? Or maybe we just need to drop all the handouts so that there's no advantage in people taking out the pension?

If people are genuinely 'asset rich/cash poor', i.e., a retired couple or a widow who live/lives in the family home which has become very valuable thanks to our ridiculous real estate prices, I think it would make enormous sense for the government to bring in a system offering that couple or widow with a primary residence with a value over a certain figure* a choice:

(a) either stay independent of the government by taking out a reverse mortgage or similar and live a comfortable life on the money the bank will pay you in return for their gaining an interest in your property after you die or are forced to leave it, or

(b) take out a government pension on the understanding that after your death, your estate will have to repay whatever the government has paid you in the pension.

What we have currently is a system where the taxpayer subsidizes the next generation who inherit these multi million dollar properties.

I think the Howard government should take much of the blame for the spread of welfare expectancy into the middle classes.


* that 'certain figure', where the government says 'your primary residence is above the average' would probably have to vary with post code. For instance, a 1.8 million dollar primary residence in Dubbo or Broken Hill is a very different kettle of fish to a 1.8 million dollar primary residence in South Yarra or Sydney's Eastern Suburbs.
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Old 17th Mar 2015, 23:58
  #16762 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 84
MTOW ..." the government has paid you in pension".... I think the taxpayer pays pensions and in most cases the pensioner has contributed to that pension via taxation.
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Old 18th Mar 2015, 00:23
  #16763 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: On the Bay, Vic, Oz
Age: 76
Posts: 416
borrowers have an obligation and a liability to repay credit with interest, and can be sued (and made bankrupt).
Should the property bubble burst, as surely it will, what percentage of the population aged between 20 and 40 would be declared bankrupt ? Thinks of all the idiots who have paid multi-millions of dollars for a house in some scruffy inner Sydney suburb. Throw in a minor recession or another GFC and woops.

It's all very well stating that borrowers have an obligation to repay loans, but how many would anticipate repaying mortgages just taken out if unemployed or the bank forecloses as the property is now worth half of that owing? When I used to analyse company balance sheets and P & L's a regular phrase used related to a company being "over extended", where a minor downturn would lead to insolvency. What percentage of the population could now be considered to be "over extended". Far too many I suspect.

I wrote previously of "people buying things they don't need with money they don't have" egged on by various governments, but where will the economy be if the credit dries up, and everyone stops spending?

.

Last edited by alisoncc; 18th Mar 2015 at 00:54.
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Old 18th Mar 2015, 02:15
  #16764 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Australia
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Originally Posted by alisoncc View Post
Should the property bubble burst, as surely it will, what percentage of the population aged between 20 and 40 would be declared bankrupt ? Thinks of all the idiots who have paid multi-millions of dollars for a house in some scruffy inner Sydney suburb. Throw in a minor recession or another GFC and woops.
If this happened (as I believe it surely won't), they will just become welfare dependent BUT as of now they are doing whatever they believe is best to ensure they become financially independent, and avoid being welfare dependent. I cannot see how this is a bad thing.

Originally Posted by alisoncc View Post
It's all very well stating that borrowers have an obligation to repay loans, but how many would anticipate repaying mortgages just taken out if unemployed or the bank forecloses as the property is now worth half of that owing? When I used to analyse company balance sheets and P & L's a regular phrase used related to a company being "over extended", where a minor downturn would lead to insolvency. What percentage of the population could now be considered to be "over extended". Far too many I suspect...
If made unemployed a couple of things happen:
1 - If they are heavily geared the lender would have ensured that there is mortgage insurance, which will pay the mortgage until the property is sold and the mortgage is repaid. (As an aside, they may then become welfare dependent, but thank goodness that right now they are contributing by paying tax)
2 - If they are not so heavily geared, they have time to sell the property and repay the mortgage. (Again, they may then become welfare dependent, but thank goodness that right now they are contributing by paying tax)
3 - When ever, yes, EVER, has property in Australia reduced to half it's value? Even in the recent GFC and the previous 'recession we had to have' this didn't happen. If you or anyone else wants to live your life by these ridiculous scare-story assumptions don't expect the rest of us to follow or agree.

Originally Posted by alisoncc View Post
...I wrote previously of "people buying things they don't need with money they don't have" egged on by various governments, but where will the economy be if the credit dries up, and everyone stops spending? ...
No worse off than if everyone stopped spending now, I would guess. However, everyone will not EVER (yes, that word again) stop spending. In hard financial times spending on luxuries (and we all have our own version of what constitutes a luxury) will decrease, but spending on necessities continues. And, of course, if we all get another $900 cash handout we can all upgrade our necessities - large flat panel TV's that will doubtlessly help the Chinese through their economic slowdown.
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Old 18th Mar 2015, 21:16
  #16765 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 179
I saw this on another web site this morning.

THE Andrews Government has begun drafting legislation that could see it avoid paying compensation for scrapping the East West link.

In a move that will increase the heat on negotiations between consortium East West Connect and the government, Special Minister of State Gavin Jennings told parliament that staff in the Department of Premier and Cabinet and the Department of Treasury and Finance had been instructed to start considering the Bill.

Talks over the East West Link have reached a stalemate, with both sides arguing over hundreds of millions of dollars in potential compensation after the government walked away from the $6.8 billion project.

Treasurer Tim Pallas confirmed Labor had given the order but said negotiations with the consortium were ongoing.

“As we’ve said consistently, we have never ruled out legislating to protect Victorian taxpayers from the financially disastrous and irresponsible East West link,’’ Mr Pallas said.

“However we will always unashamedly put Victorians first unlike the former Liberal Government who put Victorians last with their treacherous side letter.
If it's true, and the Vic. Labor government reneges on paying compensation to the companies which were to build the East West Link, who, apart from the lawyers, will win in the long run?

I know the lawyers will be loving this, for it will keep a truck load of them in business (at how many thousands of $$$ a day?) representing both sides for a decade or more. But surely any "savings" in not paying the compensation will be lost as any company going in to a contract with any Australian government organisation in the future, to prevent a repeat of this current carry-on, will insist on terms so watertight that it will end up costing more.

Oh, but I forgot... the Labor Pardy is involved. Problems, like debts, that can be kicked off into the future for someone else to deal with don't really matter, do they?
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Old 18th Mar 2015, 22:00
  #16766 (permalink)  
410
 
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Pyne seems to be setting everything in place for a DD tabling bills he knows won't be passed. Can't help but think that if they go ahead with that, it will end up biting the Libs in the proverbial bum big time. A DD allows a half quota for election to the Senate, which would mean almost certainly even more Jacquie Lambies and Ricky Milnes occupying an even bigger cross bench.

Nothing to do with the man's abilities, but are there others out there who find Christopher Pyne as annoying as I do whenever he speaks on camera? His parliamentary shout isn't quite as bad, but it grates with me as well. I can't help but feel he loses the Liberals votes every time they put him in front of a microphone, not by what he says, but by the way he says it.
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Old 18th Mar 2015, 22:36
  #16767 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: BNE, Australia
Posts: 275
Originally Posted by david1300 View Post
3 - When ever, yes, EVER, has property in Australia reduced to half it's value? Even in the recent GFC and the previous 'recession we had to have' this didn't happen. If you or anyone else wants to live your life by these ridiculous scare-story assumptions don't expect the rest of us to follow or agree.
It's happened already in the "resources towns". Check out Port Hedland. Perfect example of supply and demand in action. Some people were lucky and sold cheap houses at the top at 1000% profit. Others who bought at the top, well they now have a lot of negative equity indeed.

The point is, if you take away the demand and keep supply constant, the price has to go down. If demand is reduced because of widespread recession and mortgage foreclosures, that probably means your supply is going to increase too as other people try to liquidate their investment properties. Demand down + supply up - sure, there's no way the prices can drop, keep on drinking that "calming tea"-flavoured Kool Aid

MTOW ..." the government has paid you in pension".... I think the taxpayer pays pensions and in most cases the pensioner has contributed to that pension via taxation.
Paying taxes is not like putting money in a savings account, didn't they teach you that at school?

I detect a hint of that naughty word in your attitude... entitlement. Pensioners contribute money to their own pension using superannuation. Anything else is a generous gift from today's taxpayers congratulating you for having lived long enough to eventually be a burden on our health system until your time is up.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 00:22
  #16768 (permalink)  
 
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Location: Adelaide, South Australia
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Nothing to do with the man's abilities, but are there others out there who find Christopher Pyne as annoying as I do whenever he speaks on camera? His parliamentary shout isn't quite as bad, but it grates with me as well.
No, I don't have a problem at all. He is committed to his cause, but shallow thinking huggy-fluffy leftist ABC and SMH journalists are hell bent on depicting him as something else.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 00:53
  #16769 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Originally Posted by chuboy View Post
It's happened already in the "resources towns". Check out Port Hedland. Perfect example of supply and demand in action. Some people were lucky and sold cheap houses at the top at 1000% profit. Others who bought at the top, well they now have a lot of negative equity indeed.

The point is, if you take away the demand and keep supply constant, the price has to go down. If demand is reduced because of widespread recession and mortgage foreclosures, that probably means your supply is going to increase too as other people try to liquidate their investment properties. Demand down + supply up - sure, there's no way the prices can drop, keep on drinking that "calming tea"-flavoured Kool Aid ...
As suggested, I did check Port Hedland, and this is what I found:

Speaking to Smart Property Investment, Mr Crawford said the media and some commentators had a tendency to “sensationalise” their claims about mining towns. He said that even though Port Hedland has declined, the picture isn’t nearly as bleak as some would have you believe.

Citing data from the Real Estate Institute of Western Australia (REIWA) for Port Hedland and South Hedland, Mr Crawford said that since their very peak around 18 to 24 months ago, comparable prices in the region had declined by 25 per cent, rather than 40 per cent.

“People tend to forget that these regions do move in swings and cycles,” Mr Crawford told Smart Property Investment. “There’s no doubt it’s experienced a downturn, but it’s not unusual for this to happen every four years – it’s a typical cycle.”

Mr Crawford said cycles in mining towns can appear more extreme than those in the capital cities because they happen more quickly and more dramatically. He reminded investors that purchasing at the top of the cycle – in any market – is a risk.

“If investors bought in at the top of the cycle – which was 18 months to two years ago in Port Hedland – those investors would be noticing a substantial drop in their rental income and the value of their properties would have gone backwards,” he said.

“That’s no different to what people experience in capital cities when they decline. It’s similar to when Perth came off in 2007 and declined for three years – there was an 18 per cent reduction in prices.”

Mining town crash claims ?misleading?

This is quite different to the thought:
Originally Posted by alisoncc View Post
... Thinks of all the idiots who have paid multi-millions of dollars for a house in some scruffy inner Sydney suburb...
So I stick by my statement:
Originally Posted by david1300 View Post
3 - When ever, yes, EVER, has property in Australia reduced to half it's value? Even in the recent GFC and the previous 'recession we had to have' this didn't happen. If you or anyone else wants to live your life by these ridiculous scare-story assumptions don't expect the rest of us to follow or agree...
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 02:14
  #16770 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: BNE, Australia
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Originally Posted by david1300 View Post
As suggested, I did check Port Hedland, and this is what I found:

[COLOR="Blue"]Speaking to Smart Property Investment, Mr Crawford said the media and some commentators had a tendency to “sensationalise” their claims about mining towns. He said that even though Port Hedland has declined, the picture isn’t nearly as bleak as some would have you believe.
What! The founder of Pilbara's largest real estate group played down claims of a market crash in Port Hedland?! Say it ain't so!

When even the real estate vultures are admitting prices could/can/did go down and the markets are "cyclical" you know you have a problem.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 06:04
  #16771 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
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The vast majority of time property is always a good buy. All depends on the integration time and some restraint in how you buy. If you bought a family home at the top of the cycle, no probs its a long term thing anyway. If your a family investor, then depending how much you have over reached, you may be stuffed, but thats how the cookie crumbles. For some lucky few they will pick up a bargin. The market will turn around.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 06:08
  #16772 (permalink)  
 
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Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀
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No, I don't have a problem at all. He is committed to his cause, but shallow thinking huggy-fluffy leftist ABC and SMH journalists are hell bent on depicting him as something else.
Yeah, class act all round...



of course, he's a 'fixer'...



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Old 19th Mar 2015, 12:35
  #16773 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 53
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The judiciary has the blood of this young girl on their hands.
No left wing dogooders do, hell I'll get straight to the point, the labor party. Society and the Judges are are result of long term social policy. She is just collateral damage in the lefts holy war to make a more just society.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 14:19
  #16774 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Australia
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Poor old Tones.
Being governed by fools is not funny | afr.com
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 14:30
  #16775 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: ɐıןɐɹʇsn∀
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Come on now Koda, everyone knows the Australian Financial Review is part of the huggy fluffy Leftist propaganda machine! All the 'mainstream media' are, you know, especially the commo Murdoch press, Fairfax, the 'ALPBC' and all the commercial stations too. And don't get me started on Social Media...Crikey.com needs to be shut down completely!! It's a conspiracy I tells ya!! The only ones to listen to are Andrew Bolt and Alan Jones don't you know?

Now, wheres my tinfoil hat?
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 21:14
  #16776 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
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One murder is infinitely too many however, the murder rate in this country is so low it barely warrants a mention. Then if you only look at the shall we say "completely innocent" victims of murder the rate is even lower. The suicide rate is 11 times higher(youth suicide even higher) so let's talk about that. The media don't report on individual cases as its believed that it encourages some. Fine, but we can talk about the statistics and it's just far too high. If the governemnt wants to be seen to be doing something productive I think I might be ok with them using my money to try and do something about this epidemic.

Cos sure as [email protected]! If the murder rate was 11 per 100,000 we would be talking about it and we would all know someone who had been murdered.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 23:35
  #16777 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: Darwin, NT, Australia
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Vale Malcolm Fraser.
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Old 19th Mar 2015, 23:55
  #16778 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Perth Western Australia
Age: 53
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so let's talk about that.
see

No left wing dogooders do, hell I'll get straight to the point, the labor party. Society and the Judges are are result of long term social policy.
and edit to

they are just collateral damage in the lefts holy war to make a more just society.

Basically it comes down to aims and lack of direction and self-esteem. We once had a purpose, rightly or wrongly. In todays society its all about the individual and what gets you off.

Whilst most can just stumble though life, you just start moving the distribution around. Hence you get a larger population of people who are lost.

Life was a lot simpler when you had a purpose, have a family and do your supporting life role , another words wife/ husband. A rather crude but effective method of social control.
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Old 20th Mar 2015, 00:28
  #16779 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Australia
Posts: 543
It would be hypocritical of me to share your kind sentiments, Cooda. Without wishing to speak ill of the dead, in my opinion, the body has now gone to where the brain went fifteen or more years ago.

My condolences to his family, but that's about as far as I can go.
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Old 20th Mar 2015, 02:02
  #16780 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
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they are just collateral damage in the lefts holy war to make a more just society.

Basically it comes down to aims and lack of direction and self-esteem. We once had a purpose, rightly or wrongly. In todays society its all about the individual and what gets you off.

Whilst most can just stumble though life, you just start moving the distribution around. Hence you get a larger population of people who are lost.

Life was a lot simpler when you had a purpose, have a family and do your supporting life role , another words wife/ husband. A rather crude but effective method of social control.
I've tried to wrap my head around exactly what point you are trying to make in that post, but for the life of me I can't. I just reads like someone trying to turn 'life' into a political agenda.

You seem to have all the answers though, why don't you run for Parliament? With a PhD you're better educated than just about all the politicians we have at the moment, most of them just have Law degrees or MBA's.

Last edited by Hempy; 20th Mar 2015 at 04:38. Reason: formatting
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