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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

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EU Politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 12th Jun 2012, 08:38
  #1441 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by hellsbrink View Post
I think all the details of the "review" of the state of the Spanish banks isn't supposed to come out for another fortnight, but estimates have been running to the whole €100 billion just to prop the banks up.
My observation is that bad debt is a bit like an iceberg - most of it isn't immediately evident. I suspect that €100 billion will actually turn out to be a conservative estimate.......
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 08:45
  #1442 (permalink)  
 
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It's obviously up in the air what Hollande will do, but his first major act does indicate that he is not a "wild man"

He has fulfilled his election pledge of reducing the retirement age, but this is hedged around with restrictions and the number of people it affects is quite small - although still costly over the presidential term.

It may actually be better ( from a financial view-point ) if he does get an overall majority because the likely scenario is that the UMP is losing heavily and therefore Ecologists/Assembled Left will make significant gains.

If Hollande is then dependent on that grouping which is left of the Socialists, then their demands for their support are likely to be far more costly.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 10:10
  #1443 (permalink)  
 
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This latest euro fix will come apart in less than a month - Telegraph

A very expensive sticking plaster!
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 11:00
  #1444 (permalink)  
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
 
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He has fulfilled his election pledge of reducing the retirement age, but this is hedged around with restrictions and the number of people it affects is quite small - although still costly over the presidential term.
And even more expensive in political terms.....

Economist: Angela Merkel, swimming instructor

............notes Mr Barthle. “Germans are not prepared to work until they are 67 to allow others to retire at 60.”
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 11:19
  #1445 (permalink)  
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“Germans are not prepared to work until they are 67 to allow others to retire at 60.”

Gentlemen, I heard that very same statement 12 months ago, and here we are in June 2012, nothing has changed. Mutterings, yes, action against the Merkel Madness, no.

As more and more of the PIIGS jump on the bandwagen, the motor pulling them is getting more and more overworked, but so far, nothing.

And there are still Germans (not to mention French nationals working in China and my ex-colleague Peter living in Germany) who think the euro is wonderful and will be the saving of Europe.

Firstly, a majority of people living in Germany will have to accept that the euro is destroying the German economy. Not difficult. "Bildzeitung" said it yesterday. Secondly they will have to be motiviated to do something. Very difficult, given German history and the inclination to do what they are told.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 11:28
  #1446 (permalink)  
 
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Very difficult, given German history and the inclination to do what they are told
.

Not sure you are right there, OFSO. Obviously ever more rescues require ever more money and, in the German fashion, the maximum amount that can be lent ( by Germany ) without further parliamentary approval ( difficult in a year with crucial elections ) has been specified as a hard number and is nearly all used up.

The Constitutional Court has also been invoked a couple of times and has said very clearly that politicians are not able to bend and break aspects of the constitution just to accommodate Brussels/The Euro.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 11:33
  #1447 (permalink)  
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AS I admitted before, I lived there 1968-1993 and always found a strong inclination among the German citizenry to do what they are told by Authority. A sort of "we voted them in so they must know what they are doing" attitude to their leaders. Of course living in La-La Retirement Land down here one encounters more elderly Germans than anything so the youth might have a different attitude.

KEIN STARTBAHN WEST !

Well, that one didn't get us very far, did it.......
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 11:57
  #1448 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure Germany’s got a lot of choice. They can either:

1. Keep paying to bailout failed economies thereby keeping them in the Euro and sustaining a falsely low (from their perspective) exchange rate which means they can export and keep the German economy growing

2. Stop paying bailouts, let the Euro collapse, return to the DM (or smaller Eurozone) where the exchange rate will be high and their exports uncompetitive forcing the country into recession

Their strategy seems to be the former achieved by forcing the rest of the Eurozone into a political and economic union that nobody wants and nobody voted for. I think the PIIGS have seen that actually they will shortly be the tail wagging the dog and they are beginning to call the shots. The Greek election is going to be fascinating
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 15:50
  #1449 (permalink)  
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You missed one:

3. Introduce Eurobonds and Eurozone-wide depositor guarantees in return for banking/fiscal/political(?) union. Question is, can this be done without treaty changes, referenda etc, and how long exactly will it take?

So the bail-out euphoria lasted exactly half a day. Spain's borrowing costs have now reached Euro-era highs, apparently.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 16:00
  #1450 (permalink)  
 
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The Greek election is going to be fascinating
True, but I think a lot of people may well be frightened afterwards.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 16:27
  #1451 (permalink)  
 
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Firstly, a majority of people living in Germany will have to accept that the euro is destroying the German economy.
And it would seem, much to the delight, no doubt, of our resident sweet and sour Frenchman that the Euro crisis is destroying the UK economy.

It has severely damaged other economies and is currently damaging economies, prehaps we should, and maybe politicos will start to make moves in the right direction, if we consider the Euro itself as 'toxic'.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:08
  #1452 (permalink)  
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A lesson in keeping your mouth shut.

June 11th: Spanish Leader Mariano Rajoy Says Bank Bailout is a ‘Victory for the Euro’

June 12th: Spain's cost of borrowing rises to highest level ever since euro was introduced, Spanish stocks fall, with the IBEX 35 Index erasing earlier gains, euro falls to low level against the dollar and the pound as markets say "bank bailout will fail".


If this is victory, o death, where is they sting ?
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:13
  #1453 (permalink)  
 
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And at this very moment when Armageddon seems closer than ever before, they are talking about a European banking union as Spain's borowing costs soar and it is clear that the 'bail-out' is a failure.

The Absolute Moron’s Guide to the Euro Crisis — Part II


The Absolute Moron

Last edited by Tableview; 12th Jun 2012 at 19:18.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:16
  #1454 (permalink)  
 
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but OFSO and Tableview... the Eurozone is a success and working exactly as it should, as the Europhiles tell us..

if this is 'success' i'd hate to see a complete king disaster !
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:20
  #1455 (permalink)  
 
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Two days ago I rang my Europhile friend, the one who has been saying 'it's all working as it's meant to', to ask for his comments on the Spanish situation.

He said he was busy and would call me back in 5 minutes. I'm still waiting. Not only are these Europhiles incompetent, they are too cowardly to admit that they are wrong, or that they have no answers.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:30
  #1456 (permalink)  
Está servira para distraerle.
 
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Could the Chinese Maoist manual of subversion and long term destruction of an opponent's economic power base be being brilliantly being employed?
Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission was once one of the leaders of the underground Maoist MRPP (Reorganising Movement of the Proletariat Party, later PCTP/MRPP, Communist Party of the Portuguese Workers/Revolutionary Movement of the Portuguese Proletariat).
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 19:46
  #1457 (permalink)  
 
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Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission was once one of the leaders of the underground Maoist MRPP (Reorganising Movement of the Proletariat Party, later PCTP/MRPP, Communist Party of the Portuguese Workers/Revolutionary Movement of the Portuguese Proletariat).
And our 'sweet and sour' french Europhile friend, is based in Beijing.... could we be seeing a pattern forming ??
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 20:39
  #1458 (permalink)  
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No need for conspiracy theories:

Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

And in which modern country is the mountain located, upon which those gods live ?

Right.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 22:10
  #1459 (permalink)  
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The Bundesbank have kicked the idea of a banking union into the long grass. They say the EU should be moving towards fiscal and political union. Scary stuff.

I predict the markets will call time on this madness in due course.
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Old 12th Jun 2012, 22:34
  #1460 (permalink)  
 
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I predict the markets will call time on this madness in due course.
madness is apt...

Mario Monti insists Italy 'will not need a bailout'


Italy will not need a bail-out to survive the economic debt crisis, prime minister Mario Monti declared on Tuesday, amid fears Rome may be forced to call for aid.
and

Italy's debt worries add urgency to Merkel's dream of integration

Mario Monti, the Italian prime minister, is due to meet France's Francois Hollande on Thursday in Rome and protecting Italy from Spanish contagion ought to be high on the agenda.
to call for aid.
There simply isn't enough money under current bail-out arrangements to rescue Italy should it require help. And markets are once more preparing for that eventuality.

Rome became a fully paid-up member of the 6pc-plus club on Tuesday as its cost of borrowing jumped to 6.14pc. Its predicament is different from Spain's and Spain's was different from Greece's. But that didn't stop Spain needing financial aid.

Italy's budget deficit is not the primary concern (although its shrinking economy is a worry) but its ability to service €2 trillion (£1.6 trillion) of debt – more as a share of GDP than anyone bar Greece and Japan. It has to borrow €35bn a month.
wasn't it a case that before the 100bn bailout, Spain didn't need a bailout.

of course, under the alternate reality of the EU, Italy could ask for maybe 150bn and call it 'aid' or a 'loan' or a 'teaspoon', or any other random word and technically they haven't asked or required a bailout.

if it walks like a duck....

Last edited by stuckgear; 12th Jun 2012 at 22:39.
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