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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 25th Oct 2018, 08:00
  #16281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
Isn't it a bit of a non story though?. Currently business looks at alternative routes when Dover is closed or congested (yet another French strike?), so why would you not expect the same to happen post brexit.
A very good point from BAengineer, French strikes have probably done more to prepare Britain for a mismanaged Brexit than anything that could be done in Whitehall!!
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 08:08
  #16282 (permalink)  
 
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Another report that no doubt was written by the “oh look the sky is falling in” brigade :

https://www.iata.org/policy/consumer...exit-study.pdf

(Apologies for aviation content possibly written by experts).
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 11:29
  #16283 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting article in today's Times - "Russia moves to block UK's vision for world trade".

About 20 countries including Russia, the US and New Zealand are not accepting that Britain should take a share of the EU's trade under WTO rules.

Another little problem to be resolved.
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 11:47
  #16284 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
Another report that no doubt was written by the “oh look the sky is falling in” brigade :

https://www.iata.org/policy/consumer...exit-study.pdf

(Apologies for aviation content possibly written by experts).
Very interesting...Thanks.

Although still a lot of ' ifs' and ' maybes ' although my take is that it seems that the biggest ' threat ' so far is the US and domicile of UK carriers' ownership should the UK not get its act together if it does get kicked out of EASA ??

Assuming that's the case, then nothing much the UK Government can do about it - it's then up to IAG, TUI, Norwegian ( I'm sure Virgin will pass muster ) etc, to resolve themselves, no ??
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 13:35
  #16285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
Another report that no doubt was written by the “oh look the sky is falling in” brigade :

(Apologies for aviation content possibly written by experts).
Interesting that they say the most likely outcome from a Regulatory standpoint is that the UK remains in EASA - somewhat contrary to the Remain 'experts' on PPRuNe who have been claiming for the past 2 years that that cannot happen.

Perhaps the authors of the report dont read this site?
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 18:00
  #16286 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
Interesting that they say the most likely outcome from a Regulatory standpoint is that the UK remains in EASA - somewhat contrary to the Remain 'experts' on PPRuNe who have been claiming for the past 2 years that that cannot happen.
It can't happen if you believe that May is serious about her red lines, that hasn't changed.

It can however happen if you expect her to cave in and accept BINO.

Which of these scenarios you think is "most likely" is up to you.
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 18:08
  #16287 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat View Post
It can't happen if you believe that May is serious about her red lines, that hasn't changed.

It can however happen if you expect her to cave in and accept BINO.

Which of these scenarios you think is "most likely" is up to you.
Have you read the document? - the government has already stated its desire to remain in EASA.


The UK government has repeatedly stated an intent to continue to participate in the work of EASA. For example, the UK aviation minister, Baroness Sugg, gave a clear commitment to the UK’s involvement in March 2018,24 which was later confirmed by the Prime Minister in the UK government White Paper published in July 2018, alongside a commitment to accept regulation and contribute financially.25
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 20:27
  #16288 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
Have you read the document? - the government has already stated its desire to remain in EASA.
The government has stated all sorts of desires. Some of them are unlikely to be satisfied.
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Old 25th Oct 2018, 21:41
  #16289 (permalink)  
 
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I love Remainers, they are like the gift that keeps on giving.
  • The economy will collapse if we vote Leave - it didn't
  • We'll need an emergency budget - we didn't
  • The FTSE100 will crash - it didn't
  • We'll be reduced to a 3rd world state, surviving off scraps tossed aside by the EU - Nope, that fate is reserved for the bankrupt eurozone states, thanks very much
  • We'll have no Doctors and Nurses, Hotel staff, Fruit pickers, etc, etc. No problem, we can fill any shortfall from the newly redundant masses! At any rate, nobody has said anything about kicking out EU citizens whom are already here - quite the opposite in fact. Neither I suspect, in practice, will be it particularly difficult for EU citizens to come across here in Summer to do a bit of waiting on or fruit picking.
  • All future Trade with the EU will be mired in red tape and come to a grinding halt. Sure, I get the EU has to play hard ball on this one, as access to a free trade zone is the only real selling point it has. Nevertheless, it cuts both ways, so let's see how content BMW, VW, and countless other smaller EU companies are with extra barriers being placed inbetween them and access to the 5th largest global economy
I'm sure there's countless other downsides that keep remainers awake at night, like believing they wont be able to go on the annual summer holiday to Spain in future. And they say Leavers are stupid
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 07:48
  #16290 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by andrewn View Post
I love Remainers, they are like the gift that keeps on giving.
  • The economy will collapse if we vote Leave - it didn't
  • We'll need an emergency budget - we didn't
  • The FTSE100 will crash - it didn't
  • We'll be reduced to a 3rd world state, surviving off scraps tossed aside by the EU - Nope, that fate is reserved for the bankrupt eurozone states, thanks very much
  • We'll have no Doctors and Nurses, Hotel staff, Fruit pickers, etc, etc. No problem, we can fill any shortfall from the newly redundant masses! At any rate, nobody has said anything about kicking out EU citizens whom are already here - quite the opposite in fact. Neither I suspect, in practice, will be it particularly difficult for EU citizens to come across here in Summer to do a bit of waiting on or fruit picking.
  • All future Trade with the EU will be mired in red tape and come to a grinding halt. Sure, I get the EU has to play hard ball on this one, as access to a free trade zone is the only real selling point it has. Nevertheless, it cuts both ways, so let's see how content BMW, VW, and countless other smaller EU companies are with extra barriers being placed inbetween them and access to the 5th largest global economy
I'm sure there's countless other downsides that keep remainers awake at night, like believing they wont be able to go on the annual summer holiday to Spain in future. And they say Leavers are stupid
And welcome to Nirvana, currently located in leafy Chesheer ( as some Beeb presenters are prone to pronounce the County ) where clearly the "flowers do bloom in the spring tra la la ".....

The first three points, true, but there's nothing like a bit of smug moral retrospection to convince yourself and others of the fact these projections didn't actually transpire.....of course, it's not yet March 2019 thus it may be prudent to wait until after this date don't you think ?

A 3rd world state you say ?.......erm, not quite, but there is steady decline in our standard of living

Trade won't come to a grinding halt, only the distribution and logistical supply chains......a mere detail of course.

Personnel ......now that's an interesting one given the much promoted concerns across a broad spectrum of occupations, professions and sectors as to recruitment and retention in the near future. Of course, it's entirely possible these concerns are merely alarmist rhetoric with absolutely no validity whatsoever.......at least for the residents of JB Wisteria Avenu

Finally, as they used to say on "Top of the Pops " ....."up one place this week to number five....here's France ! "......so no, I don't think it's unreasonable to surmise the manufacturers you mention will have any problems.....now, lets talk about who is in 6th place .

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 26th Oct 2018 at 09:35.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 08:31
  #16291 (permalink)  
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I wonder if there is any correlation between remainers and warmists? Between remainers and pesimists?
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 09:20
  #16292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BAengineer View Post
Have you read the document? - the government has already stated its desire to remain in EASA.

The UK government has repeatedly stated an intent to continue to participate in the work of EASA. For example, the UK aviation minister, Baroness Sugg, gave a clear commitment to the UK’s involvement in March 2018,24 which was later confirmed by the Prime Minister in the UK government White Paper published in July 2018, alongside a commitment to accept regulation and contribute financially.25
Yes, I'm sure it has, but as with so many other things in the UK / EU negotiation the terms "cherry picking" and "cake eating" come to mind. If the UK is to get to eat any cherry cake it's going to have make further concessions, and blur (further) it's red lines. Government negotiators know this, it's just how they sell it to largely clueless and out of touch politicians is the question.

That will be painful for hard brexiteers, and not particularly welcomed by hard remainers either.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 10:12
  #16293 (permalink)  
 
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"They think it's all over..."

I suggest that both sides wait until the final whistle next March to see who has won this particular match. Although it seems that our side are desperately playing for extra time.

And when they finally leave the pitch they will find only cold showers in their WTO changing room.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 11:25
  #16294 (permalink)  
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French Regional President: No Deal Brexit won't mean Calais disruption


French Regional President Xavier Bertrand has dismissed the idea of a ‘go slow’ policy at the port of Calais if there is a No Deal Brexit, asking: “Who can believe such a thing?”

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab had suggested that in the worst case scenario, French disruption could lead to problems. But Bertrand, who is Regional President for Hauts-De-France was gobsmacked and responded to the reports by tweeting:

“No! Closing the port or the tunnel of Calais to the British in case of Brexit without agreement is not envisaged! Who can believe such a thing? We must do everything to ensure fluidity. The Hauts-de-France area and Calais are Planning to Implement a fast pass pour augmenter fluidity at both ports & tunnel. Who on earth could think that a go-slow approach would be good for business?”

Bertrand also tweeted a photo of him with the British Transport Minister Chris Grayling, making clear that he had been working with Calais Mayor Natacha Bouchart and “local economic players to ensure the smooth flow of both sides of the Channel”.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 11:43
  #16295 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...-voting-rights

Leading Brexiter claims EU citizens in UK will be given voting rights


A leading Brexiter has claimed to have seen an extract of the UK’s draft withdrawal agreement and says it will give voting rights to all EU citizens who stay in the UK.

Daniel Hannan, a Conservative founder of Vote Leave, told fellow Conservative MEPs on Thursday that he had been given sight of key Brexit papers, which are supposed to be a closely-guarded secret among senior ministers and civil servants. In a WhatsAppmessage to other MEPs, Hannan said that the agreement would give voting rights to all EU citizens in England and Northern Ireland. He went on to say that voting rights were devolved in Scotland and Wales. The leading Brexiter questioned why the government had struck the deal saying it should have negotiated separate agreements with each EU country.

The disclosure of the message will raise questions as to why Hannan appears to have been given sight of such crucial documents. It will also raise the hopes of millions of EU citizens living in the UK who were unsure whether they would be able to vote in future elections.......

On the messages, Hannan wrote: “I just saw an extract of the draft withdrawal agreement. Britain has decided to enfranchise all EU nationals (at least in England and NI – it’s devolved in Scotland and Wales.) What an odd decision: why offer a blanket deal instead of country by country bilaterals? For what it’s worth, it will significantly bolster the non-Tory electorate.” Hannan did not respond to a request for a comment.......

The leak of the WhatsApp messages to the Guardian comes as the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, said the UK government had no plans to set out a no-deal technical notice for EU citizens’ rights. Speaking in the Commons, Raab did not elaborate or give a timeframe for how the rights would be spelt out. “The issue of citizens’ rights is on a scale and a level of importance and sensitivity which means it will not be done in technical notices but in a different format.” Labour said that the Department for Exiting the EU’s refusal to issue a technical notice was a broken promise, pointing to a Department of Transport notice which said “a technical notice on EU citizens in the UK will be published soon”.

Though EU citizens currently in the UK received a guarantee that they would receive settled status after Brexit, negotiations about some future rights are still ongoing, including their right to return to live in Britain even if they leave the country for some years. After the EU summit in Salzburg this year, Theresa May said the UK would guarantee the 3 million EU nationals living in the UK that “your rights will be protected, even in the event of no deal”. The House of Commons’ Brexit select committee noted in July that voting rights were a sticking point in negotiations and that the EU had “declined to consider a reciprocal agreement for the continuation of voting rights as part of the withdrawal agreement negotiations”.

A government spokesperson said:“This is not within the scope of the Withdrawal Agreement. We have always been clear that the voting rights of both UK nationals living in the EU and UK nationals living in the EU should be considered together and that we’re committed to doing bilateral deals to achieve this.”
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 12:04
  #16296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
French Regional President Xavier Bertrand has dismissed the idea of a ‘go slow’ policy at the port of Calais if there is a No Deal Brexit, asking: “Who can believe such a thing?”.
Hardly a surprise. He's not going to risk the loss of local business to other continental ports.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 13:06
  #16297 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sallyann1234 View Post
Hardly a surprise. He's not going to risk the loss of local business to other continental ports.
The problem is that much as this gent might not want to deliberately screw up the port of Calais, the very fact that trucks will be arriving from outside the EU there will have to be some sort of customs checks on trucks / their documentation as the vehicles exit ferries or trains, before they start their journeys in the EU, mean that it will be national authorities rather than regional ones that will dictate how much delays will impact upon the ports.

At least in Calais port, and Coquelles there is land available to stack truck s while they are waiting for clearance to enter the EU; sadly the same can't be said of the port of Dover, or the Eurotunnel terminal at Folkestone.
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 13:55
  #16298 (permalink)  
 
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A 3rd world state you say ?.......erm, not quite, but there is steady decline in our standard of living

Quite agreed - even I can see that from when I lived in the UK as a teeanager and then again in my early 20s.....

But that steady decline has been over a couple of generations, no ?

And there have been hardcore and softcore Conservative governments, hardcore and softcore labour governments and even a coalition government.

To be provocative, I'd say the only constants, in fact, during this period have been the UK's membership of the EEC/EC/EU and the associated increase in population and low wage earners, and the pressure that that has put on society in general. And the continuous and continuing sell off of the UK's infrastructure to private investors and subsequent emphasis on profit above service.

So which of these two has contributed most to that steady decline ??
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 14:26
  #16299 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Hussar 54 View Post
A 3rd world state you say ?.......erm, not quite, but there is steady decline in our standard of living

Quite agreed - even I can see that from when I lived in the UK as a teeanager and then again in my early 20s.....

But that steady decline has been over a couple of generations, no ?

And there have been hardcore and softcore Conservative governments, hardcore and softcore labour governments and even a coalition government.

To be provocative, I'd say the only constants, in fact, during this period have been the UK's membership of the EEC/EC/EU and the associated increase in population and low wage earners, and the pressure that that has put on society in general. And the continuous and continuing sell off of the UK's infrastructure to private investors and subsequent emphasis on profit above service.

So which of these two has contributed most to that steady decline ??
I'd say that the major contributory factor has been the consistent reluctance by governments of all colours to protect UK industry from hostile takeovers by often (usually) asset stripping global corporations or venture capitalists. Two I could name in recent times are the sales of Cadbury and Boots.

You cannot ever see the French government allowing the sale of Danone; and certainly they'd never allow strategic industries such as EDF, Gaz de France, SNCF etc to foreign interests, whereas in the UK it doesn't appear to matter how strategically important an industry is, flog it off to the highest bidder.

With the steady loss of UK manufacturing industry, it's replacement with distribution warehouses, call centres, coffee shops and the like there has certainly grown an over dependence upon low paid jobs, and the further north you go in the country the more pronounced this is. Brexit, and with it the potential loss of businesses that use the UK as a good / cheap springboard into the EU, even those distribution jobs may be at risk. I really cannot see leaving the EU doing anything to improve the quality of jobs available to the majority in UK, after all Dyson (that stalwart of the Brexit side) can't even see fit to manufacture his new electric vehicle in a post Brexit UK. What that does that say about our manufacturing future?
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Old 26th Oct 2018, 15:16
  #16300 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ATNotts View Post
...

With the steady loss of UK manufacturing industry, it's replacement with distribution warehouses, call centres, coffee shops and the like there has certainly grown an over dependence upon low paid jobs, and the further north you go in the country the more pronounced this is. Brexit, and with it the potential loss of businesses that use the UK as a good / cheap springboard into the EU, even those distribution jobs may be at risk. I really cannot see leaving the EU doing anything to improve the quality of jobs available to the majority in UK, after all Dyson (that stalwart of the Brexit side) can't even see fit to manufacture his new electric vehicle in a post Brexit UK. What that does that say about our manufacturing future?

UK Manufacturing Statistics

Manufacturing contributes £6.7 trillion to the global economy. Contrary to widespread perceptions, UK manufacturing is thriving, with the UK currently the world’s eighth largest industrial nation. If current growth trends continue, the UK will break into the top five by 2021. In the UK, manufacturing makes up 11% of GVA, 44% of total UK exports, 70% of business R&D, and directly employs 2.6 million people.
https://www.themanufacturer.com/uk-m...ng-statistics/
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