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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 4th Sep 2017, 13:32
  #11621 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
Exactly the point I have made on several occasions.

Nothing short of promising Free Disneyland tickets to one and all could improve on Jezza's Moneytree "promises" so the only way Labour are heading is down.

The Tory's under Mrs May cannot possibly do that badly again so for Labour things do not look to good, and if you add in the real potential the Jezza is in his job for the long run you can certainly understand the pain being suffered by the Labour voters out there.
[I"]There is no doubt that calling the election and running the campaign they did was a massive error - but she did actually increase the Tories share of thf vote (for the 3rd election running).

If the Tories can increase their support with such a bad campaign and sub-standard leader then if they get their act together they really dont have that much to fear["/I]



Love it ! a classic JB "BOGOF" contribution !

Just a few, probably irrelevant I know, but that's reality for you, points.....chaps.

The first being despite this marvellous majority, as seen through a blue haze, the result of the GE was, erm, a hung Parliament.

A helpful bung of 1bn ( give or take and as a starter for more ) to the D.U.P helped alleviate this rather tricky situation.

Then we had the "mea culpa" moment, apologising to the Tory rabble as to why "strong and stable" remember that mantra ?.. which had all the political equivalent of, say, the structural integrity of an igloo in the Sahara, didn't actually resonate with the electorate....and it seem strange that, with her comfortable victory....this is just to appease your collective adulation you understand, it's not actually the reality of the situation, she has been rather too enthusiastic as to proclaiming her intention to stay for the duration....

Still, as long as you are both happy in your blissfully innocent world of Toryland, please feel free to continue displaying your fantasies....

Here's a link for you to ponder over......

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40245514

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 4th Sep 2017 at 13:50.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 14:34
  #11622 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
The Tory's under Mrs May cannot possibly do that badly again so for Labour things do not look to good, and if you add in the real potential the Jezza is in his job for the long run you can certainly understand the pain being suffered by the Labour voters out there.
Politics has changed somewhat since the 70s. UKIP have distorted the picture in the last 3 elections in different ways, and depending on how the Brexit is going may do again. If the next election isn't until 2022, it should be clear how Brexit has gone. As a Brit I hope smoothly, but the current signs aren't good. If we are indeed in the poo (or as a minimum austerity is still firmly in situ) then unless Labour do anything really stupid they will have a very good chance of getting in. Having said that, given his age I doubt Corbyn will be in charge, so it will depend on who comes next. I would guess whoever it is won't meet much approval here, but with a bit of charisma (do politicians have that any more?) they could find themselves PM.

The Tories are short of options. If Brexit is delayed then UKIP are likely to increase their share at the Tories expense, if it has gone through and things are no better than they are now then they are also in trouble. Their best bet is likely to be a better than expected Brexit deal, then a quick election before it has chance to go wrong. However since they also look very likely to change leader before the next election there is a lot that could knock the wheels off that strategy. Their best bet is that post 2019 Boris' land of milk and honey turns out to be reality, but I don't think there are too many who would bet the farm on that at the moment.

One last point - over 5 years one end of the electorate drops off, while the other end replenishes it. Current wisdom is that Labour should do well out of that...
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 15:05
  #11623 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Curious Pax View Post
Politics has changed somewhat since the 70s. UKIP have distorted the picture in the last 3 elections in different ways, and depending on how the Brexit is going may do again. If the next election isn't until 2022, it should be clear how Brexit has gone. As a Brit I hope smoothly, but the current signs aren't good. If we are indeed in the poo (or as a minimum austerity is still firmly in situ) then unless Labour do anything really stupid they will have a very good chance of getting in. Having said that, given his age I doubt Corbyn will be in charge, so it will depend on who comes next. I would guess whoever it is won't meet much approval here, but with a bit of charisma (do politicians have that any more?) they could find themselves PM.

The Tories are short of options. If Brexit is delayed then UKIP are likely to increase their share at the Tories expense, if it has gone through and things are no better than they are now then they are also in trouble. Their best bet is likely to be a better than expected Brexit deal, then a quick election before it has chance to go wrong. However since they also look very likely to change leader before the next election there is a lot that could knock the wheels off that strategy. Their best bet is that post 2019 Boris' land of milk and honey turns out to be reality, but I don't think there are too many who would bet the farm on that at the moment.

One last point - over 5 years one end of the electorate drops off, while the other end replenishes it. Current wisdom is that Labour should do well out of that...
I can't fault your thought process but as you would imagine I don't necessarily share your conclusions.

The 'Young Vote' was certainly very successfully targeted by the Labour machine this time round however as has now been shown many of those young adults were absolutely 'mugged off' by some very clever spin that was simply never going to happen. Then as we have just seen Jezza has just back peddled on his Welfare promises so the country is starting to the Dutch Elm Disease on the MoneyTree.

In the last election the Tory campaign was an absolute catastrophe, there is not one single redeeming feature in their manifesto and Mrs May was found to be as fragile as it can get yet she is in No 10 running the country.

This despite the Labour promises of FREE Everything, despite austerity, despite Brexit, despite almost breaking point in every public service sector and still Labour with all their ingenuity could not beat the absolute lame duck or dead person walking that some like to point to.

Now imagine in 5 years a new engaging and appealing leader, a coherent fully costed manifesto with enough FREE stuff in it to tempt one and all and a campaign that learns from labours very clever use of social media and you can see why I suggest that Labour is the dead man walking.

It's probably also worth pointing out that the last time the electorate put its trust in Labour to run the country the party had to morph itself into the Blair Torylite version that swept into power in 97.

Currently under Corbyn they are lightyears from that which is the basis for my assumptions.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 15:18
  #11624 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Effluent Man View Post
Well make sure you are not being rooked, they do have form.
It seems they do. I used their online checking tool and got an odd looking result, so sent off for a proper forecast (I think someone here helpfully gave the link). The forecast I got back was far from clear to understand, and rather strangely didn't tally with another letter I received from them advising me about the pension I would shortly be able to draw down. Neither of the figures agreed with what I'd tried to work out from the online information available, either!

In the end I gave them a call, and have to say that they were both very helpful and very clear about how much my pension would be, and what the impact would be if I chose to defer taking it for a few years.

I'm not sure if I just got lucky, and spoke to someone who was particularly helpful, but either way a ten minute phone call was more useful than an hour or two of trying to work out what I should get by other means. I did suggest to the person I spoke to that they might consider getting the telephone advice staff to write the letters they send out, as I'm sure that would make them easier to decode.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 15:57
  #11625 (permalink)  
 
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Anti-Semitism still alive and well in the UK is it?

Or...is it Political Correctness run amok that overlooks Hate Speech from Muslim Radicals but imagines Hate Speech from Christians?

Should not all those who spew hatred for others be banned from entering the UK if any are banned?

A sense of Fair Play used to be a mark of the British Mindset I was told here...several times.

Anti-Semitic Hate Preacher Who Called for Destruction of U.S. and Britain Heading to UK
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 16:12
  #11626 (permalink)  
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" In the last election the Tory campaign was an absolute catastrophe, there is not one single redeeming feature in their manifesto and Mrs May was found to be as fragile as it can get yet she is in No 10 running the country.

This despite the Labour promises of FREE Everything, despite austerity, despite Brexit, despite almost breaking point in every public service sector and still Labour with all their ingenuity could not beat the absolute lame duck or dead person walking that some like to point to.

Now imagine in 5 years a new engaging and appealing leader, a coherent fully costed manifesto with enough FREE stuff in it to tempt one and all and a campaign that learns from labours very clever use of social media and you can see why I suggest that Labour is the dead man walking
."

Did you actually read the link as to why she is still there, let alone understand what a hung Parliament is ?.

Labour did not promise "FREE Everything " or if they did, a sizeable proportion of the electorate missed this enticing offer.

The future for the Tories is now becoming even more unsecure....there's the little matter of what is termed " a work in progress" or "unfinished business" to attend to.....otherwise known as Brexit.

As the portents for this aren't exactly going to plan ( Baldric's idea of a plan ) then when we do, sadly, leave, the damage to the UK will become readily apparent and here's the unfortunate twist.....as the Tories are in power, then Labour cannot be, as usual, blamed for the fiasco that has ensued.

UKIP ?...finished and consigned to history. Entertaining, in one way, but overall fundamentally attached to the extreme right and, has been said many times, without the charismatic orator aka The Divine Saviour, now on the equivalent of a CFIT and there's only one way that ends.

Keeping with an aviation analogy, tis nice to see that other condition "pressonitus" is still prevalent.....

In the end I gave them a call, and have to say that they were both very helpful and very clear about how much my pension would be, and what the impact would be if I chose to defer taking it for a few years.

I'm not sure if I just got lucky, and spoke to someone who was particularly helpful, but either way a ten minute phone call was more useful than an hour or two of trying to work out what I should get by other means. I did suggest to the person I spoke to that they might consider getting the telephone advice staff to write the letters they send out, as I'm sure that would make them easier to decode


Having successfully presented the equivalent of heading on a 180 deg reciprocal as being the correct heading, it was intriguing to read the above, given the information had already been provided on here.....even by myself in post #11784. Still, that's but one of the many advantages of the "Ignore" function....the world can be impressed by the untapped reservoir of knowledge shamelessly presented as....original thought.

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 4th Sep 2017 at 16:37.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 16:55
  #11627 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Jet II;9882064]There is no doubt that calling the election and running the campaign they did was a massive error - but she did actually increase the Tories share of thf vote (for the 3rd election running).

The vote share is pretty irrelevant. If you work on that basis Corbyn had a brilliant result putting on over 30% of his 2015 share. May managed to add barely half that.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 17:27
  #11628 (permalink)  
 
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[quote=Effluent Man;9882311]
Originally Posted by Jet II View Post
There is no doubt that calling the election and running the campaign they did was a massive error - but she did actually increase the Tories share of thf vote (for the 3rd election running).

The vote share is pretty irrelevant. If you work on that basis Corbyn had a brilliant result putting on over 30% of his 2015 share. May managed to add barely half that.
Corbyn had a fantastic result, no one yourself included would have given him a jot of a chance of that prior to Mrs May calling that snap election.

The thing is though, and I know you see this as me being smug here but the facts are despite promises of FREE everything Corbyn came up woefully short against an opponent who simply offered no credible opposition.

The country is not daft and that is why despite all her failings Mrs May is in office and Corbyn is in opposition.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 17:35
  #11629 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Krystal n chips View Post
" The current basic state pension seems to be 122.30 per week, paid every four weeks (not monthly), for those born after 6th April 1951. For those born before 6th April 1951, the state pension is 159.55 per week, again paid every four weeks, not monthly.
.
I am still amazed that the Tory government under Dave Cameron (who?) Was allowed to get away by having 2 classes of pensioners. Those getting the lower weekly and others getting the higher figure. My wife and me get the lower pension despite having both paid the current minimum 35 qualifying years contribution.
Like many others, I am well and truly fed up of people saying that pensioners have done well recently. Does anybody really think that we have done well to receive 122 pounds a week. My council tax costs me just over 200 per month. Let those who critcise pensioners try to live on that and then tell me we have been treated so incredibly well....
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 17:49
  #11630 (permalink)  
 
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A personal view

To those who think TM could do no worse at the next GE.
I believe she has the capacity to surprise.

On delivering brexit.
This was not a referendum vote based on traditional party politics. Therefore delivery of brexit should be in the hands of a cross party committee.

Leave means different things to different people.
I do not believe TM will be able to deliver a deal which pleases more than it offends.
Therefore, in my view, she is toxic to the conservatives.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 17:58
  #11631 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Buster15 View Post
.
I am still amazed that the Tory government under Dave Cameron (who?) Was allowed to get away by having 2 classes of pensioners. Those getting the lower weekly and others getting the higher figure. My wife and me get the lower pension despite having both paid the current minimum 35 qualifying years contribution.
Like many others, I am well and truly fed up of people saying that pensioners have done well recently. Does anybody really think that we have done well to receive 122 pounds a week. My council tax costs me just over 200 per month. Let those who critcise pensioners try to live on that and then tell me we have been treated so incredibly well....
I do, fully understand your sentiments here even though I was fortunate enough to be borne the other side of the date in question.

It's not really that amazing however, because the increase was never going to be retrospective and also, the eligibility for the full new state pension is nowhere near as encompassing as the Gov't would like people to believe.

In fact, it's remarkably difficult to get the full amount, even more so when being contracted out for example, comes into play. And it's interesting to read just how many organisations took advantage of this option over the years.

What is equally amazing is how the pension age for women was quite arbitrarily introduced and changed so that many now find themselves working longer despite having complied with their contributions. That, along with the raising of the pension age is nothing short of social engineering on a massive scale given it will affect numerous millions.

Obviously, there are exceptions to the many pensioners who are struggling, and will continue to do so, and the contempt shown by this demographic is all too evident when they flaunt their wealth whilst professing to care about the futures of others and decrying anybody who follows the normal rules of fiscal prudence.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 17:59
  #11632 (permalink)  
 
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D Sqdrn, That pretty much sums up my view of the situation. TM is a manager, not a politician. She will run away from confrontation yet again. But I doubt they are daft enough to give her the chance.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 18:02
  #11633 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Buster15 View Post
Like many others, I am well and truly fed up of people saying that pensioners have done well recently.
The reference is to inflation-proofed final salary public sector pensions (and to a less extent to final salary pensions for people who've worked for a long time for the same private sector company).
Originally Posted by Buster15 View Post
Does anybody really think that we have done well to receive 122 pounds a week. My council tax costs me just over 200 per month. Let those who critcise pensioners try to live on that and then tell me we have been treated so incredibly well....
At least the pension is actually more than the council tax - last time I was on the dole, after I'd paid the 40% income tax on the dole there wasn't enough left to pay the poll tax, let alone anything left over for food, mortgage etc.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 18:47
  #11634 (permalink)  
 
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The problem with pensions seems to be a mix of those who have not bothered to make pension provisions through their working life, plus those that, for very good reasons, have not been able to, or have had their pension "robbed". I can't see how we can apply a single solution to all those with out adequate pension provision, if we want a fair society.

I can give two examples that I know of. The first is an acquaintance I used to drink with when we lived in Scotland. He was a hard working bloke, originally from Manchester, who had worked in the printing business all his working life. The bloke was a real grafter, and had worked hard secure in the knowledge (or so he thought) that he'd get a decent pension when he retired. Sadly, Maxwell robbed him of that, and so at the age of 65 the bloke had next to sod all pension. He'd done nothing wrong, but found himself having to start his own B&B business from his home, plus take a PSV test and drive buses every day, at the time when he thought he'd be able to retire.

The second example is a relative by marriage. He has a decent degree, yet has never worked a full week in his life, by choice. He only works when he feels like it, has flitted from one job to another, "borrowed" money from his father every time he's wanted to do something, and is generally one of the most lazy and feckless individuals I know. When I retired early, he got very shirty with me for having the means to do so. I'm afraid I lost my temper with him, told him that I'd worked for peanuts for years, endured being posted to places at short notice and with no real choice to refuse, and had made damned sure that the job I chose when I started work paid a decent pension (to be fair, it was my late father that pushed me to do that).

In the first case, the chaps lack of a pension was not in any way his own fault, he got shafted by a crook, and his only mistake was in choosing to work for the Mirror Group. If anyone deserved aid from the state, that chap did. Sadly he died from cancer three years after retiring.

In the second case, the bloke has no pension because he's a lazy feckwit, and deserves the very minimum from the state needed to keep him alive, and frankly I'd begrudge him that, as I don't think he's ever paid any tax at all - he's never earned enough, by choice.

So, how do we make society fairer, yet not encourage the lazy feckwits to just rely on handouts? I've yet to see a solution that seems reasonable, from any political party.
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Old 4th Sep 2017, 18:59
  #11635 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VP959 View Post
So, how do we make society fairer, yet not encourage the lazy feckwits to just rely on handouts? I've yet to see a solution that seems reasonable, from any political party.
Trouble is, you discover that the lazy feckwits suddenly become less lazy when it comes to working out how to game the system. It's designing a system that can't be gamed that's difficult, I don't think it's entirely a matter of party political viewpoint!
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Old 5th Sep 2017, 05:38
  #11636 (permalink)  
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About the delusional Tory majority....

The numbers that matter - BBC News
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Old 5th Sep 2017, 07:30
  #11637 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by D SQDRN 97th IOTC View Post
A personal view

To those who think TM could do no worse at the next GE.
I believe she has the capacity to surprise.

On delivering brexit.
This was not a referendum vote based on traditional party politics. Therefore delivery of brexit should be in the hands of a cross party committee.

Leave means different things to different people.
I do not believe TM will be able to deliver a deal which pleases more than it offends.
Therefore, in my view, she is toxic to the conservatives.
Mrs May will almost certainly not be in charge come the next election. The Tory party will have elected a new leader, will present a credible and costed manifesto and will have learnt the lessons of their last campaign and in doing so will win yet again.

Labour will still be under Corbyn's far out there Left with Dopey Di doing her bad maths thing and the party promising the moon which anyone with an ounce of common sense will work out is undeliverable.
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Old 5th Sep 2017, 08:36
  #11638 (permalink)  
 
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And so it begins

Public sector pay cap 'to be lifted next year'

slowly but surely winning back their core votes.
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Old 5th Sep 2017, 08:51
  #11639 (permalink)  
 
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Not sure whats more disturbing

UK terror threat level severe 'for at least five years' - BBC News

the headline itself or the deliberate omission of the 'I' word.
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Old 5th Sep 2017, 12:24
  #11640 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Seldomfitforpurpose View Post
And so it begins

Public sector pay cap 'to be lifted next year'

slowly but surely winning back their core votes.
Quite how this is going to win back "core voters" remains unclear. The Tory core is the same as the Lib-Dem or Labour core respectively.

However, this article offers a deeper perspective.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...story-changing

Much has been made as to how Labour used social media to, allegedly, entice the young vote.

Here's the Tory response......


https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-mogg-for-pm

Last edited by Krystal n chips; 5th Sep 2017 at 14:57.
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