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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

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UK politics - Hamsterwheel

Old 2nd Jun 2017, 15:43
  #9621 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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Originally Posted by Buster15 View Post
It is correct actually. If as seems possible we end up with no deal we will be subject to international trade tariff which will increase our prices. The EU know this as TM has already shown her hand. The problem then is that because we are a high cost and relatively low productivity economy our ability to secure favorable trade deals will be adversely affected.
The EU has a massive trade surplus with the UK, and, we give them shedloads of money on top of that. That gives the UK a very strong negotiating hand at the outset.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 16:00
  #9622 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
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Originally Posted by ORAC View Post
Trade tarrifs are import taxes set by the importing nation, if the government don't change any the price of imports from the EU to the UK will remain the same and those from outside the EU will be come far cheaper as the UK will then be outside the EU tariffs wall and can stop charging them on those nations.

The EU cannot, under WTO rules, charge the UK higher tariffs than other non-EU nations. The average WTO tariffs is 9%. There are higher tarrifs, but not only goods where the UK is a major exporter. If the EU does fail to do a deal and sets tarrifs, then the UK can set import tarrifs and provide compensation to the affected exporters. Since the UK imports more from the EU than it exports then the equation will be in profit, not loss.

This neglects the insistence the EU has on doing a deal which keeps the present open tarrifs free border between Eire and NI, and any arrangement must, perforce Nd under WTO rules, apply to the whole of the UK and not part.
Are you trying to say that as we import more from the EU than we export to them that if we set such import tariffs which will off course mean that inflation goes up that we will actually be better off????
Anyway the original point was about the UK not manafacturing enough to give us a strong bargaining tool. If both the UK and Germany were to leave the EU for example which would be able to negotiate a better trade deal. It wouldn't be the UK as Germany manufactures and can sell much more thereby being in a stronger position and that is the point.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 16:12
  #9623 (permalink)  
 
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Good article by Martin Wolf in the FT. Sobering.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 16:21
  #9624 (permalink)  
 
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Buster,

firstly Germany are not leaving and are not in competition, so not much of a discussion point, secondly the point people are making is the likes of Germany have totally free trade with the UK and would lose a lot of money if that trade stopped or they had to pay for the privilege, whereas the UK already pay for the privilege to access the EU market, so any cost to UK companies could come out of that money and the UK would still be better off.

The UK don't need to bargain for access to the EU, but the EU will need to bargain well to keep free access to sell in the UK, or risk losing a lot of trade revenue.

People keep saying that the UK could not make up the loss of the EU market by expanding their world trade accordingly, but I reckon the UK would fare better than the EU would in making up their lost sales to the UK to the rest of the world
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 18:30
  #9625 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by sitigeltfel View Post
Twisting facts, or worse propagating an untruth to suit your agenda does not create new facts.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2014/1...-the-troubles/

The NI office and the security services were operating without the knowledge of HMG, there were no negotiations.
And of course, Powell became a Labour stooge who went on to have a book to sell.
I was there, 1974-76.
Siti....sadly, sitting in the Mess ante-room doesn't make you privy to events that were occurring as racedo has stated.

When I was working in NI I met and listened to several people who said pretty much the same as racedo. I considered these people to be well informed. The truth about NI and that period is unlikely ever to become full public knowledge as we all know.

Anyway, here's something for the chaps to mull over this evening... nigh on impossible to deny the logic contained therein.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ote-its-labour
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 19:12
  #9626 (permalink)  
 
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Exrigger

What you fail to grasp in your simplistic look at trade is that the EU is a big club and the interrelationship complex
Ford Toyota Nissan ? The cars roughly comprise of 6000 parts 80% made in the EU and 80% of sales to the EU
Investment floods into the UK worldwide for our access to the single market
We are involved in large EU projects

Out of the club the will to trade with the uk changes dramatically! Suddenly we are an outsider and one now despised
That and the USA are our by far biggest markets how on earth will we replace all that selling lamb to New Zealand or dealing with corrupt China

We should be expanding our sales and involvement with the EU
That is what any big business would do with by far their largest companies not this shear lunacy
We really have lost our marbles
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 19:29
  #9627 (permalink)  
 
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Pace, I understand full well thank you, and please don't patronise me with your inane drivel, I thought we were safe outside the brexit thread, obviously not.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 19:38
  #9628 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
Exrigger

What you fail to grasp in your simplistic look at trade is that the EU is a big club and the interrelationship complex
Ford Toyota Nissan ? The cars roughly comprise of 6000 parts 80% made in the EU and 80% of sales to the EU
Investment floods into the UK worldwide for our access to the single market
We are involved in large EU projects

Out of the club the will to trade with the uk changes dramatically! Suddenly we are an outsider and one now despised
That and the USA are our by far biggest markets how on earth will we replace all that selling lamb to New Zealand or dealing with corrupt China

We should be expanding our sales and involvement with the EU
That is what any big business would do with by far their largest companies not this shear lunacy
We really have lost our marbles
Excellent post by someone who clearly understands the situation. The Brexit negotiations with the EU will be a sham as they have clearly decided on their position due to the overly hard stance TM has decided on.
Ex Rigger believes that industries within the EU will struggle to make up for reduced sales to the UK and yet UK industries will find it more easy to make up by exporting to the RoW. Where is the logic in that assumption. We are already seeing some of our prized financial services moving to EU countries to protect their position. More importantly the money we contributed to the EU may well be dwarfed by the potentially massive divorce bill. I don't remember anyone mentioningthat during the EU referendum debate.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 19:44
  #9629 (permalink)  
 
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Blimey, if this is the intelligent thinking and so called reasoning that is going to turn the election and brexit into a bigger farce than it already is, then god help the country. But at least Pace has a like minded supporter at last.

Oh and by the way:

More importantly the money we contributed to the EU may well be dwarfed by the potentially massive divorce bill. I don't remember anyone mentioning that during the EU referendum debate.
You may remember the referendum was last year, the EU have only been talking of a divorce bill very recently, so you would think you should know that is the reason it was not mentioned during Project fear a year ago, I also don't believe it has been mentioned as an election issue in any manifesto either.

Last edited by Exrigger; 2nd Jun 2017 at 20:54.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 21:20
  #9630 (permalink)  
 
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We don't manufacture enough

What do the following manufacture?

Police
Civil servants
Lawyers
Medics
Architects
Professors
Pilots (and bus / train drivers)
Civil servants
Prison staff
Accountants
Etc...

Why are some people hung up about manufacturing ?
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 21:23
  #9631 (permalink)  
 
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Selling lamb

Someone keeps suggesting that trade with the EU will stop

Despite reasonable people telling him that is rubbish

Well it is rubbish. Complete tosh.
And he knows it.
But keeps spouting the same tired repetitive story.

TF I have him blocked.
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 22:02
  #9632 (permalink)  
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics...for-poll-rerun
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 22:14
  #9633 (permalink)  
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Why does Gerard Coyne expect a fair fight?
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 22:33
  #9634 (permalink)  
 
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Alex Massie, The Spectators dry witted commentator, said it superbly : " Theresa May has become the Tories’ Gordon Brown (but without Gordon's social graces and breezy joie de vivre) ".
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 22:47
  #9635 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jetex_Jim View Post
Alex Massie, The Spectators dry witted commentator, said it superbly : " Theresa May has become the Tories’ Gordon Brown (but without Gordon's social graces and breezy joie de vivre) ".
Are you German now?
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Old 2nd Jun 2017, 23:00
  #9636 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by engineer(retard) View Post
Are you German now?
Not while I'm quoting the Spectator old boy.
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Old 3rd Jun 2017, 04:56
  #9637 (permalink)  
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I see the chaps are clearly giving some deep thought with regard to responding to the last link I posted....either that, or the content is proving just a shade more realistic than they are willing to admit.

Who watched the Question time special last night I wonder ?..when we were treated to a floundering explanation, accompanied by some patronising drivel, as your ( those who support her on here that is ) icon woefully attempted to justify the reason(s) for decimating the public sector...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ublic-services

She's becoming the political equivalent of an airframe with exfoliation corrosion.....
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Old 3rd Jun 2017, 08:08
  #9638 (permalink)  
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The New Statesman lead article about the election reckons that, despite the Labour surge, the Conservatives will get a large majority because of demographic changes. No link to the article on their site so I'll type a bit in.

".....The political scientist Tom Lubbock has been studying public polling data and, in a thread of tweets, he likened Labour's plight to that of the proverbial frog in boiling water. "Over the course of the period since it lost in 2010, Labour's position has worsened with many important groups, especially the over-55s and over-65s...... it's position has worsened geographically as well - it's votes are piling up in safe seats.... but the overall perspective is obscured by each new crisis."

The rabid focus on Corbyn's leadership has disguised a deeper malaise. Like the frog unaware that the temperature of the water in which it swims is dangerously rising, Labour is oblivious to or refuses to contemplate the danger it is in. Lubbock, who is a lecturer in politics at Regent's Park College, University of Oxford, believes the polls are flattering the party. "Even with a vote share of 33%, the party could suffer a catastrophic loss of seats to the Tories because, unlike in 2005, when it won a majority on 35.2%, Labour's vote share is now poorly distributed from the point of view of winning in marginals and it faces a Conservative Party polling around 15% higher than it did under Michael Howard - in other words, Labour is disbenefited by the electoral system."

Labour will end up with as few as 150 to 160 seats, Lubbock predicts. "If they get that number they should consider themselves lucky"........

Still Hatwal, who edits the Labour Uncut website, has studied early canvassing returns and has spoken to many candidates and activists. "The defeat will be greater than 1983, with leading figures such as Tom Watson, Dennis Skinner and Caroline Flint facing defeat while many others, including Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband and Angela Raytheon are teetering on the brink", he wrote in a 20 May post for Labour Uncut.

Recent political shocks should make one instinctively sceptical of such emphatic forecasting, but Hatwal was unperturbed when I spoke to him. "It's looking terrible", he told me. "First, there are the UKIP-to-Tory switchers. Second, there is the drop-off in our vote where people are just not going to vote. Third, and this will have a direct bearing on how bad it is, there are those who are switching directly from us to the Tories. These are people in our heartlands of the north-east and Yorkshire who are ashamed to say they're voting Tory and yet they are voting Tory. We could be falling towards extinction levels".

Hatwal,expects Labour to lose "over 90 seats", which would be the party's worst return since 1935.... when it won 154 seats. In 1983, in the aftermath of the Falklands War, Michael Foots's Labour won 209 seats on a 27% vote share........."

Last edited by ORAC; 3rd Jun 2017 at 08:22.
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Old 3rd Jun 2017, 08:17
  #9639 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
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My frriend said if Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM in five years England will be like Greece without the sunshine and no one to bale us out.
Can someone reassure me please.
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Old 3rd Jun 2017, 08:22
  #9640 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Mike6567 View Post
My frriend said if Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM in five years England will be like Greece without the sunshine and no one to bale us out.
Can someone reassure me please.
The sun will shine occasionally
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