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The price of Oil (merged)

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The price of Oil (merged)

Old 2nd Jan 2008, 23:54
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Danger The price of Oil (merged)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7168664.stm
What a start for aviation in 2008..................
Its going to hurt
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Old 2nd Jan 2008, 23:59
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Also methinks with that in mind it might be time to chop in the old 2.5v6 for a slightly less thirsty beasty...

DPT
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 00:15
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Good thing we fought the "War for Cheap Oil......"
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 00:17
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Wink

Don't worry, boys!

100 $ is still only 50,43 £, so no reason to panic

Part of the equation of oil futures, methinks - as long as the $ goes only one way, so does the price of oil. Remember that the majority of shareholders worldwide don't keep their finances in USD, so must make ends meet

Waddaya call it???? Tough love???

Last edited by Empty Cruise; 3rd Jan 2008 at 00:59.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 00:34
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So maybe its time to bulk buy USD and barrels of the black stuff.. wonder how much I can fit in the shed..??!!

DPT
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 09:47
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OPEC has the world by the [email protected],
Neccessity is the mother of invention so someone once said. The sooner another non petro -chemical based form of energy is developed - whether it be ethenol , bio diesel , compressed air , solar etc the better.
Let's see those Arab [email protected] live on sand.
I now commute to work on my bike , and the Mrs now walks to her part time job. We have gone from 2 to 1 cars and I now fill my car about every 3 weeks instead of every 5 to 6 days.
The exhaustion and price gouging of oil has the potential to bring the aviation industry to it's knees.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 10:19
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Just stocked up on fuel for my wheels. £0.56/litre at Tesco/Sainsburys.



All legal too, so long as I don't use more than 2,500/annum
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 11:43
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It would seem that the $100 US barrel of oil was because a pair of prawns on the US stock market wanted to go down in the history books. It's in http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/today/li...1_20080103.ram somewhere. As Auntie Betty won't give me a computer with a sound card, I can't find the exact bit just now. It was in the business news bit.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 11:54
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Wonder if it's part of a global loss of confidence in currencies?

Gold has also reached a new record high.
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 12:00
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You'll find the details here - Single trader behind oil record
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Old 3rd Jan 2008, 22:52
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isnt it nice to know, how one trader, loosing $600 in just 1 trade, so he can brag about paying US$100 a barrel, has cost the world Millions as the Oil companies jump all over the excuse to bump up prices at the pump by a few cents a ltr.!!!
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Old 4th Jan 2008, 00:11
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isnt it nice to know, how one trader, loosing $600 in just 1 trade, so he can brag about paying US$100 a barrel, has cost the world Millions as the Oil companies jump all over the excuse to bump up prices at the pump by a few cents a ltr.!!!
Yup, som-bitch should be shot, bet he is from Texas.
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:03
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Danger The price of Oil (merged)

The actual oil price may be influenced by speculation and capacity shortage in oil refining, but it remains an issue of supply and demand.

We have passed the peak of conventional oil reserves, which means that supply at a low production cost will decrease. Developing countries require more oil and therefore the gap between supply and demand will increase. Fuel price forecasts by Dr. Hartl, from the Swiss Petrol Union are 150- 200 $ per barrel by the end of 2008.

The reserves in western countries are going dry in 10 to 20 years, production already decreasing, creating huge dependency. Refineries are only being build/expanded east of Suez, because no company is willing to invest in refineries in western countries – higher dependency will increase price even more. Also, the OPEC oil reserves are not as large as published because the export restrictions are based on their reserves so all OPEC countries publish more than they have. Most countries will become protective about their reserves, as they will try to hold on to oil for the future. It gets cold in the winter in Russia…

I just wonder how many airlines are still offering rather low prices at 130 $ per barrel and that they are basically still all flying. I don't know of any business relying more on fuel. Who will be first to go bankrupt?

What will aviation look like with $ 200 per barrel? What is the future of low cost carriers, as this market segment is very price sensitive?
I'm looking forward to some fun speculations, and who knows - U might be right!
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:19
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careful what you wish for
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:21
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Exclamation Dollar

I'm pretty sure that the majority of the oil-price has increased due to the fact that the Dolalr has tumbled in value over the last year. As the 2 are connected, as the dollar goes down, the price of oil will go up!
Does anybody know how much the USD was worth against the Euro 12 months ago? That way we can compare the oil-price in €uro now and 12 months ago. Somehow then I think the picture doesn't look as bad as the dollar-tinted one.
Sure, the price has gone and will go up, but it's about time the dollar-oil connection gets the boot! Let's try and get things in proper contrast now the €uro market is so much stronger than the US.
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:29
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All this Peak oil nonsense is merely a sideshow.

There is NO shortage of oil, there is a percieved shortage of high grade light sweet crude, but even that is now open to conjecture.
The Iranians have 30 million barrels tied up in tankers in the Gulf, Chinese demand will collapse after the olympics, US demand is falling at the rate of around 1.5% per annum etc etc

Yes prices will find a new equilibrium, in the short term $85-90 USD, longer term $65-70 USD.
The last time there was an oil price spike, it rode on the back of "30 years of oil left" comments, that was 28 years ago

Current Spot Price $128.34 USD a reduction of $4 USD today, all I see is speculators shorting the price at the current level.
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:41
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No fun speculations here, but funny for me is that you cite a certain Dr. Hartl from a Swiss Petrol Union. I don't know either of them (the man nor the company), and I'm from that country. Over here we cite US economic leaders and professors with such statement, so obviously one is talking after the other one.

For the $/€ issue: that has changed about 30%, while oil has doubled.

There are certainly different factors contributing to the oil price, of which the most importants are:
  • higher demand
  • lower supply
  • more difficult exploitation
  • speculation
  • Dollar
  • geopolitical fears

The demand problem can't be so big, because there is no known shortage of oil. Adding to the geopolitical problems is the fact that the US is still adding oil to it's SPR (strategic petrol reserve), while noone can be certain if the outgoing administration is attacking Iran or not. Let's not forget that most representatives of the present administration are directly or indirectly heavily invested in oil firms. These problems will be solved with the new democratic presidentship next year, so we will have a few problems less.

btw oil is dropping sharply today.

Everyone agrees that oil wont last forever, but at the present time there is no reasonable argument why oil should stay so high at the moment. It will most probably fall again to moderate highs, until it will steadily increase until it runs out. So much for the demand/supply-theory. But there will always be ups and downs towards this end game. The prices will be paid until it is too much for the consumers. They will continously replace oil by other means, until the price is right again. Aviation industry will be most probably the last one to use petrol, when every other has replaced it. This is so because there is simply no other liquid energy available with the same or better weight/energy ratio.

Dani
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:41
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Oil price mocks fuel realities

Try to read between the lines. There are just so many people that will benefit from high oil prices (especially Goldman Sachs who are pushing this $200 figure) - they want us to believe that we have reached peak oil production, that there is a supply issue and that every small terrorist threat will some how affect suppy.....

Please read this article for alternative view.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_.../JE24Dj02.html
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Old 27th May 2008, 19:51
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So those in the oil business are "forecasting" the price to rise.

Who'd have thought it ?
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Old 27th May 2008, 20:19
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Chinese demand will collapse after the olympics
You cannot be serious.
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