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The Climate Change debate

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The Climate Change debate

Old 14th Jun 2011, 17:25
  #8141 (permalink)  
 
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And by the way, talking of IPCC deciding that humans are responsible for the warming due to human emitted CO2, this is what AR4's summary for policymakers [ SPM ] says

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations … Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns (see Figure SPM.4 and Table SPM.2).”


But if one looks at Table SPM.2 for supporting evidence regarding temperature extremes and winds, we see that the confidence level for human influence is only “more likely than not”, i.e. > 50%!

Worse still, if you read the small print in footnote f, it says

“Magnitude of anthropogenic contributions not assessed. Attribution for these phenomena based on expert judgement rather than formal attribution studies”

So basically while they blamed humanity for " climate change ", the magnitude of anthropogenic contributions were never assessed and remain unassessable till today. Humans were blamed not based upon empirical evidence or science. They were blamed based upon " expert judgement ". And who were the " experts "? Of course, the climategate coterie of scientists.

This is their evidence based upon which they are bringing on policy decisions affecting millions and costing trillions. And we have mindless believers following this crap as gospel, without thinking or reading through the report.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 17:45
  #8142 (permalink)  
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I am a person of scientific inclination.

I have seen dowsing employed successfully in defiance of my scepticism.

It was used on land (that I know had remained undisturbed for many decades) to locate buried masonry walls. It was my belief that the land was 'bottomless silt' deposited by the nearby river over centuries of flooding, yet they were able to identify locations which, when excavated, revealed lines of dressed-stone walls and a 'pavement' dating back to Roman times.

There is absolutely no possibility that the dowsers had any prior access to the site (they were wandering nearby when I sensed the opportunity for some fun - which backfired). They weren't locals and there was no record of previous constructions in the area (apart from a Roman settlement some half mile away).

Test excavations outwith the designated areas found merely river silt down to a depth of several feet (as expected).

The accuracy of the original 'pegs' placed by the dowsers was within six inches horizontally of the buried masonry (which was at least a foot below the surface).

I don't know why it works (or how) - but it does!
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 17:49
  #8143 (permalink)  
 
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Well, that is one thing we agree on, then!

We do agree that Gregor Mendel might well have worked with you lot. In what capacity, though, there we probably would disagree, so that we are 'not going to go there.'

Stuckgear, your last post really says it all. It is perfect in its way and I would not want to see you change one tiny detail of it. I shall take it for a very concise summary of the mindset of the anti-AGW faction.

Let me know if anyone manages to score that million bucks, especially if it is your hero, Dr. Mörner. That might change my mind about this whole thing. Anything short of that unlikely event, well, it probably wouldn't!
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 18:02
  #8144 (permalink)  
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Lone wolf 50, you obviously didn't read my post very closely

I think the problem with the image of dowsing is it borders on black magic in people's eyes as it has no scientific explanation. Also it has a lot of people who think they can but very few that actually can. (I admit I was skeptical about it until I saw that demonstration of it.)
I note you have not read the study very closely either as it concludes:

"in particular tasks, showed an extraordinarily high rate of success, which can scarcely if at all be explained as due to chance ... a real core of dowser-phenomena can be regarded as empirically proven."

Or was it a case of only selecting the bits you considered met with your believes?
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 18:10
  #8145 (permalink)  
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Anyway enough of this frivolity, back to serious stuff which if correct throws a spanner in the GW works:

Major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity

"The results of the new studies were announced today (June 14) at the annual meeting of the solar physics division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces.
Currently, the sun is in the midst of the period designated as Cycle 24 and is ramping up toward the cycle’s period of maximum activity. However, the recent findings indicate that the activity in the next 11-year solar cycle, Cycle 25, could be greatly reduced. In fact, some scientists are questioning whether this drop in activity could lead to a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period from 1645 to 1715 when the sun showed virtually no sunspots.


BREAKING – major AAS solar announcement: Sun’s Fading Spots Signal Big Drop in Solar Activity | Watts Up With That?
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 18:53
  #8146 (permalink)  
 
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Is this South Park? Oh no it's Jet Blast!

I invoke James Randi's challenge (thanks to Chuks for bringing it up). Dowse your best and win a million bucks folks.

Caco

My favourite dowsing fraud...

How To Spot A Psychopath :: New frontiers in pseudoscience :: October :: 2007
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:11
  #8147 (permalink)  

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Well, I really don't know what to say about this dowsing stuff.

I've seen it work on my wife's cousin's ranch. Anytime he needs to drill a new water well, this Indian that is about a 100 years old comes out, his grandson drives him because he never learned how to drive, then Ronnie (the cuz) takes him out to the field where he needs the new well and this Indian gets out of the truck, walks around with this stick held about waist high for about an hour (when I was there he did) and then stops, points down and say "here".

Then he walked back to the truck and sits down. Ronnie marked the spot and we drove him back to the main house, Ronnie gives the grandson a check and they drove off.

This Indian has never been wrong, he has picked out a dozen spots on this ranch starting back when Ronnie's grand-father started the ranch. None of the spots failed to produce water.

By the way, Ronnie is no Okie hillbilly hick, he has a double BA and a MS from the University of Oklahoma and taught there until he had to move back to western Oklahoma to run the ranch.

So if there is a million dollar award for proving dowsing, which I have never heard of before, maybe I need to find this Indian and go win a million bucks.



Oh, I didn't believe in this dowsing nonsense either, until I saw it with my own eyes.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:23
  #8148 (permalink)  
 
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Don't gull me. I prefer Moths and Mews

So if there is a million dollar award for proving dowsing, which I have never heard of before, maybe I need to find this Indian and go win a million bucks.
Con, you are clearly a good man, so if you win can I have, say $100,00 (split with Chuks of course)?

Challenge Applications - JREF Forum

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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:36
  #8149 (permalink)  

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con,
Has he tried choosing his own drilling location, just as a control, or would that now be considered as disrespectful to the old boy?
To tell the truth, I don't know. Ronnie did say that he and his family had always used this guy for finding water. So I would surmise no. We joke that the real tragedy is that this Indian can't find oil or natural gas worth sh!t. Ronnie's dad tried that, didn't work, but he find a hell of a water well feed by an underground spring for the swimming pool and all the farm/ranch buildings near the main house.

But no oil.


Oh, there has been a lot of natural gas and some oil found on the ranch property, but not by the Indian, but by geologists.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:41
  #8150 (permalink)  
 
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Indian can't find oil or natural gas worth sh!t.
Hell, no sh!t.

These oil dowsers have been at it for years...

Same hoodo, different technical voodo...

Great Oil Sniffer Hoax - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

(We must return to the Global Warming - unproven - thread).
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:46
  #8151 (permalink)  

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Con, you are clearly a good man, so if you win can I have, say $100,00 (split with Chuks of course)?
If that is the guy in the video in your post that is offering the million bucks, I need to see the money first. It doesn't look like has 10 bucks, let alone a million of them.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:53
  #8152 (permalink)  
 
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Con

If and when you win your million your lawyer will note the missing 0 and I will get nothing!

Randi is on the level by the way. Just like AGW. Oops, there we go again!

Caco
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 19:58
  #8153 (permalink)  

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If and when you win your million your lawyer will note the missing 0 and I will get nothing!
Naw, you'll get the $100.00, a hundred out of a million ain't that much.

Randi is on the level by the way. Just like AGW. Oops, there we go again!
Ah yes, but it is still all about money init.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 20:04
  #8154 (permalink)  
 
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Naw, you'll get the $100.00, a hundred out of a million ain't that much.
Guess that might buy us both a bottle of whisky I guess. Not Laphroaig though!
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 20:17
  #8155 (permalink)  
 
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#8104

"In a study in Munich 1987-1988 by Hans-Dieter Betz and other scientists, 500 dowsers were initially tested for their "skill" and the experimenters selected the best 43 among them for further tests. Water was pumped through a pipe on the ground floor of a two-story barn. Before each test the pipe was moved in a direction perpendicular to the water flow. On the upper floor each dowser was asked to determine the position of the pipe. Over two years the dowsers performed 843 such tests. Of the 43 pre-selected and extensively tested candidates at least 37 showed no dowsing ability. The results from the remaining 6 were said to be better than chance, resulting in the experimenters' conclusion that some dowsers "in particular tasks, showed an extraordinarily high rate of success, which can scarcely if at all be explained as due to chance ... a real core of dowser-phenomena can be regarded as empirically proven."
greengranite - you quoted this in support of your idea that dowsing works.
Out of 500 dowsers 6 (six) showed success rate better than chance. Cherry picking indeed! I would have expected that at the 95% confidence level about 25 would do better than chance.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 20:48
  #8156 (permalink)  
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911slf you obviously work for the Met Office, they believe data doesn't matter.

greengranite - you quoted this in support of your idea that dowsing works.
No it was to back up that my statement "Also it has a lot of people who think they can but very few that actually can. "
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 21:19
  #8157 (permalink)  
 
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I love it!

I finally thought, 'Oh well, let's at least see what this Swedish brainbox has to say about AGW, even if it blows my preconceptions up. That much I owe these cargo cultists.'

The first surprise was the tone of the article cited. It just didn't read like the sort of collegial stuff you expect from one scientist discussing other scientists. There was this mob of Austrians pulling down a tree, the three Australians who presumed to study the oceans despite their country not having a coastline... maybe I got those things backwards but I really don't think it matters much because there did not seem to be a lot of sense in the whole miserable thing.

Then there came the next question, 'Who in hell is EIR, given that they do not list anything beyond their acronym?' plus, "How does an 8 year-old get to do an interview with a top scientist and then how does a ten year-old get to edit that?' (Well, I had to guess the ages from the quality of the interview but I think I got pretty close there.) So Lyndon LaRouche uses child labor....

After all that came more from our native anti-AGW faction about the mad Swedish doctor and what a top shot he really is in the wonderful world of climate science, plus how one really cannot use Wikipedia. Back I went, to Google this clown, when even more stuff came out! Top was the dowsing, along with James Randi passing him the challenge to win the million bucks.

Now we are off on another tangent entirely, 'Dowsing, fact or fiction?' which must come as a nice break after months of boring, old, one-sided, pseudo-scientific cutting and pasting and showing little graphs meant to prove to anyone with any brains at all that Al Gore obviously is the anti-Christ, or whatever.

You guys have restored my faith in the usefulness of studying the liberal arts. Thanks!

Last edited by chuks; 15th Jun 2011 at 06:32.
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Old 14th Jun 2011, 21:19
  #8158 (permalink)  
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G-CPTN

Your experience is similar to mine, and my success that led to a theory. My wells were in the Sierra Nevada Range in the Tahoe National Forest. The mountains themselves are indexed as the "Nevadan Orogeny", Orogeny merely means "Mountain Building", and I think it occurred ~60m years ago. The locale has no "aquifer" as such, but the water follows fractures in the Granite pushed up eons ago. I came to suspect that at least where I found my wells, the dowsing located the fractures, not the water. That sounds like your subterranean walls. Invariably, when I flagged a well site, the first thing Greg hit with his bit was a large Granite artifact.

I don't like to gamble, so it wasn't easy for me to order a hole that may turn out dry, at 10 bucks a foot.I struck out only once, and it was geology that did me in. I built a MacMansion for a lady who was loicated at a lower elevation, and I ended up in alluvial strata, not Granitic. I redid my tracks, and three hundred feet down, a 1/4 mile away was water. We had to drill through a massive boulder of Granite first. The dry hole cost me 7 grand, but the others made me mucho dinero.

Off for some "drowsing".......

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Old 14th Jun 2011, 22:00
  #8159 (permalink)  
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chuks, when I waded through the climategate E-Mails I found out that the leading scientists of the IPCC reviews were deliberately falsifying science by using incestuous peer review and deliberately preventing any scientist with opposing views from getting any papers peer reviewed to the extend of even getting a journal's editor fired for allowing a dissenting paper to be published in the journal. They also made statements such as "why should I let you have the data that I produced this paper from when you will use it to find something wrong with my work" and "I'd rather delete the database than let it be released under a freedom of information request". and "don't worry that paper will not appear in the forth Assessment Report even if I have to redefine the peer reviewing process"

And you have the gall to dismiss the work of a scientist because he believes in dowsing.
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Old 15th Jun 2011, 02:20
  #8160 (permalink)  
 
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Whoa hoss, let's get back on track.

Forget the models. When a doctor takes a patient's temperature he works to 0.1C. That is a temperature taken with a state-of-the-art clinical thermometer in a closed environment.

Does anybody out there really think that a computer model can predict temperature accurate to the same level in 10/20/50/100 years hence?

Should governments make multi billion dollar/pound/euro/yen decisions based on these predictions?

Do I want these governments making political decisions that will potentially ruin my childrens financial futures? NO!

As an aside, the assinine statements that the countryside disfigouring wind farms will provide us with all the power we need needs to be treated with the contempt that it deserves. Farmers in "sunny" and less than windy South Wales currently get 70,000 GBP / year / windmill, err sorry turbine, to site one of the virgin white statues on their land.............

Last edited by LowNSlow; 15th Jun 2011 at 02:48.
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