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The Climate Change debate

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The Climate Change debate

Old 30th Aug 2010, 16:08
  #6201 (permalink)  
 
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What was that from Chuks? No meaning, facts, common sense or rational thought?

And what is this Climate Change which seems to be a sudden problem for him? Somebody wake him up and tell him that Climate has been changing since earth was formed and is not something that has happened now post 1988.

We call it Anthropogenic Global Warming as that was the name the fraudsters used first and that is what they mean when they say " Climate Change ". We tell the true name of the scam.
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 16:15
  #6202 (permalink)  
 
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Since Chuks talked about " scientific method " and climate change, it would be worthwhile for him to read this article written 2 years ago by Ric Werne, talking about science and scientific method with respect to climate

Science, Method, Climatology, and Forgetting the Basics
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 16:30
  #6203 (permalink)  
bearfoil
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I learned recently some history about "Global Warming". It was a term coined by the Green in 1974, in a book called "Mankind, and......." I forget the rest.it was a playbook for the Green movement and talked with careless abandon about using fear and alarm to sell Environmental religious dogma. The debunker last night even quoted Tolstoy, I had forgotten how fond Leo was of words. Why use one when four show a learned grasp of the medium? chuks, you could relate to Leo. Something about how deep a hole a convinced scientist will dig to avoid criticism, or question. If Tolstoy's right, were in for the next phase, DENIAL. And it won't be the sceptics.......and it won't be "arguable". Who wrote "karanina", was that jcbmack also? Googling Karenina, I found Sophie Marceau, of the "World is not enough". remember the bit of Ear missing off her gorgeous head? jcb, did you cast her in the Brosnan foil role? Brilliant!!

out, hibernation ( The bear is easily fooled, it is Summer in California, but there is frost and Ice on my Porsche's carburetor this morning.)

urse
 
Old 30th Aug 2010, 16:41
  #6204 (permalink)  
 
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It's all going to be alright now - Structure of IPCC to change.

BBC News - UN climate body 'needs reforms', review recommends

probably recognise the need for an even more devious chairman.
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 18:04
  #6205 (permalink)  
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Oh dear the Beebs prejudices are dumbing the report down, try: U.N. climate panel urged to reform, stick to science* - Yahoo! News UK for the full article.

The U.N. climate panel should only make predictions when it has solid evidence and should avoid policy advocacy, scientists said in a report on Monday that called for thorough reform of the body. Skip related content

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was widely criticized after admitting its 2007 global warming report wrongly said Himalayan glaciers would vanish by 2035 and that it had overstated how much of the Netherlands is below sea level.

Such firm forecasts should be made "only when there is sufficient evidence," said a review group supported by the academies of science from the United States, Netherlands, Britain and around 100 other countries.

Critics of the idea of mandatory limits on so-called greenhouse gas emissions have said the IPCC errors show the science behind global warming is questionable.

The United Nations has been concerned that focussing only on errors by the panel, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former U.S. Vice President Al Gore for work on global warming, could undermine the broader U.N. message that climate change is a real phenomenon requiring urgent action.
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 21:00
  #6206 (permalink)  
 
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Air...

I mean Bearfoil... CA has been experiencing a heat wave over the past week with some triple digit temps while the east coast has broken records for highest temps in recorded history... there was some regional cooling this year in CA but now that heat pump is working its way over here while over 35 countries all over the world are experiencing warming... come off it and look at the facts...

...mod...
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 21:02
  #6207 (permalink)  
 
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Okay

There is no way to disprove it? Now who is making facts up? Let the facts speak.
I have been reading Tim Ball. Steve McIntyre is a snot, and Michael Crichton is dead.

I see your Al Gore, and raise you a tree stump hugging "Mann" about the town.

rgds.

Ursus folio
What do you propose Bear the climate sensitivity equation ought to be and by what metrics are we to quanitfy such a concept and what data and how should we collect it for your satisfaction? If you cannot answer the question just ignore it; perhaps one of your peers can answer it.
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 22:04
  #6208 (permalink)  
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What do you propose Bear the climate sensitivity equation ought to be and by what metrics are we to quanitfy such a concept and what data and how should we collect it for your satisfaction?
One is but a simple country yokel, but how about this: we record the temperature and graph its trends. If'n the line is upwards, then the climes are warming; if'n it's downwards, then we're cooling.

For older trends that we weren't around to record, we use proxies like ice cores and tree rings and so forth.

We use satellite data to complement thermometer readings, and we make account for - and show on maps - anomalies which we know we have created ourselves, like Urban Heat Islands where we have air conditioner exhausts and motor vehicles and power stations which all produce heat, and we make note of the trends recorded by weather stations where we know their surrounding areas have been transformed from open country to asphalt covered ground.

We accept and take account for the fact - and it is a fact - that CO2 only absorbs a small part of the IR spectrum, and that beyond a concentration of about 50ppm in the atmosphere it does not contribute significantly to the retention of solar heat received by the earth.

Once we've done all that, will you people in the Warmist camp be able to find it in yourselves to look objectively at the present cooling trend and the long term historical averages and accept that the idea of man-made Global Warming just isn't happening and isn't actually possible, and that the scaremongering based on the idea that it is is motivated by politics and not supported by fact or science?
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 23:16
  #6209 (permalink)  
 
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As long as Goldman Sachs, Bear Sterns and all the global trading houses figure they can drive up the price of carbon credits from $5 to $250 and the Govt. can see huge new revenues, nothing is going to change. Doesn't matter what we all argue about, heating/cooling, whatever.

This is the next "big thing". Dot com bubble, housing/financial markets bubble, now the green bubble rises. The big guys will make the money, all us little guys will pay. Anyone taking bets on the next bubble after this one?
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Old 30th Aug 2010, 23:20
  #6210 (permalink)  
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jcb

What I know, is this. Climate models are sensitive, and are made to be. When I grasped that the "Models" do not use gross forces, but actively avoid them, I had a fit.
Turns out that is ok, what Mann and Hansen and jones and Gore (well, his lackies) were doing is micromanaging in a studied and very "arduous way" the data such that at the end, cooling DATA produced an upward Hockey Stick. Whether that may have been inadvertent isn't the issue. Virtually all the models acted the same. Models are digital "seers" Prophets of future expectations, based on a rather loose agglomeration very dependent on DIDO. The Earth doesn't have enough by a factor of one hundred sensing stations, and there are 10% fewer each year. Wrong direction, cowboy, but the Warmers want even fewer. Satellite Temps disagree with manual Data in ways I don't get, but I'm told it doesn't matter, there is NO WAY to calculate variations inside one hundred years, (See the accepted value of a recently reduced .57 degree C warm over the last 110 years.)

My Friend, this is Jet Blast, and I listen to PhD's bicker over wildly differing conclusions. Opinions that no honest person (let alone a political "Consensus") could embrace to win a fiver fair and square let alone base the transfer of trillions of dollars into the pockets of those who gave us "DerivativeGate". I know a Genius Mathematician who was responsible for helping to pitch securitized bundled mortgages flooring houses that cost a half million dollars to Taco Truck drivers.

Just as the gig was up when "Interest only come ons" were sold to waitresses and students, The Carbon gag is a CON. The trillions that got paid to Bankers for losing their clients' money so that the Bankers could become whole and then re inflate the Stock market with money that should have been paid BACK to those who didn't even know they had invested in Frank and Dodds and Madoffs Scheme, is gone, there is no cash in the engine, only debt, nothing whatever of value to pawn to fulfill "Full Faith and Credit" of the U.S, Gummint, etc.

If you are not in the market don't you dare throw a sous into those bastards pockets. IF you are in, get out. Buy Gold like the 2500 richest families on Earth have been doing. When the FED writes a Bad Check to buy Gold to keep the price down, so numpties don't tumble to the fact that this is the last check China will "Honor", don't say I didn't warn ya. But you know all this,even though you will argue with it, and turn down Broadway to change the subject to something else, Global Warming is as Tulips in the 18th century, Tuckers, and Hula Hoops. Gore knows it, they all know it. Even if it was real, it doesn't mean shit, Carbon Dioxide is still the benign life giving compound we've always thought it was, and if you were not a Carbon based organism, it might be Silicone. Run some Models on what life would be like if Silicon had a six atom ring that monkeys pirhouette about. We'd look like Klingons or worse, trust me, I'm a scientist.

bear
 
Old 31st Aug 2010, 04:18
  #6211 (permalink)  
 
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The Interacademy Council [ IAC } has released it's report on IPCC and it is a damning indictment.

http://reviewipcc.interacademycounci...t%20Matter.pdf

As per New York Times article linked below one of the key recommendations was

" The changes recommended by the panel include replacing the top eight officials responsible for producing the United Nations reports every seven years or so. That throws into question whether Rajendra K. Pachauri, the current chairman of the panel, called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, should remain to oversee the report due out in 2013-14. ?

So that's bye bye to Pachauri. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Read the NY Times article below

The New York Times > Log In

The panel has recomended wholesale changes in the way the IPPC is run, reports are written, review process is conducted and evidence required to be provided by writers and review editors.

The days of Mann, Jones and co. gatekeeping, passing each other's reviews, having a cosy pal review clique and writing only their viewpoints, are over, hopefully.
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 06:10
  #6212 (permalink)  
 
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When the FED writes a Bad Check to buy Gold to keep the price down,
How does buying gold keep the price down?
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 06:52
  #6213 (permalink)  
 
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rvv said
"So that's bye bye to Pachauri. Good riddance to bad rubbish."

Aye to that!
When Pachauri was voted in, who lost out? Maybe he was the best of a bad bunch?

Anyone on this forum thinks the UN is an honest broker? Nest of vipers more like.......
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 08:39
  #6214 (permalink)  
 
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Hi Aviate,

If I remember correct Bob Watson was voted out by pressure from GWB and Pachauri was brought in. I'd rather Watson had stayed.

Agree with you that the UN is a nest of vipers, especially in the Climate Change area. So that's why rigid controls are required to reign them in. Let's hope that the IAC Report on wholesale changes including replacing the entire top 8 officials in charge of the climate change reports, is implemented in full. The entire old bunch should go. And people like Mann, Jones, and any member of the team should not be given any review or editorial or author work. They should be completely kept out of anything related to IPCC.
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 09:12
  #6215 (permalink)  
 
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CA has been experiencing a heat wave over the past week
A whole week, eh? Must be climate, not weather.
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 13:35
  #6216 (permalink)  
bearfoil
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etrang

I got way ahead of myself. The Gold is acquired on credit, mostly off market, it is the immediate sale of the metal at a loss that drives the spot down. Sorry. It is a sequestered loop, the "seller" sells at market (contract market, less than spot), and repurchases at market plus margin.

It is the sale that is publicly attributed.

bear
 
Old 31st Aug 2010, 14:01
  #6217 (permalink)  
 
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Define where in CA. The "coast" la etc. has had onshore flow (clouds/marine layer) natural ac for the past 4 days, lower temps. Inland, up in the high desert, temps have been a little below normal, now the cycle starts again, onshore changes to offshore, little to no cloud cover, more sunshine, more heat trapped in the valley etc. No secret, it's summer weather, jet stream, high/low pressure areas, ho hum, move along now, nothing to see here.
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 18:46
  #6218 (permalink)  
 
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Nature Laughs at complicated math

if you don't know what I mean you never had complex math...calculus does not count I mean you shouls see how quickly even 'simple' systems get out of hand mathematically

I did not say there's no effect but if there is warming based on basic physics there must also be cooling, latent heat of vaporization etc,...and I don't think it's possible to quantify with any closed solution the total differential equations governing this---it would be a folly, not fancy data treatment for really short term predictions I mean a truly useful model...further the the 1980 were ridiculously hot along the east coast

The only way to lower CO2 loading is Higher voltage, better interconnection and using what ever as a fuel [even nuclear reactors don't use steam that's maximally supercritical] Higher general STEAM pressures and temps
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 18:59
  #6219 (permalink)  
 
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What was all that malebovinefaeces about this year having the hottest summer on record?

Coldest August since 1993 as mercury failed to rise higher than 27c | Mail Online
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Old 31st Aug 2010, 19:07
  #6220 (permalink)  
 
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Ay, ay ay, not here dude several days in the high 90s

today it's 91F* average 78F* perhaps that CAT 4 hurricane threatening the east coast will cool us down













* divide by 1.8 subtract 32, and you don't see 9/5 on any thermometer
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