Training for a Licence
 

Why are people still training for Professional Pilots Licences right now? With the drastic reduction in demand for air travel and hundreds of aircraft parked up along with redundant/furloughed Pilots why?
What is going to happen to all those crews that have been laid off and why do you think that airlines would hire you over experienced crews?

I guess for the same reason people buy Bitcoin and do other things that appear to buck the trend. It is a gamble that might pay off?

Truth is nobody knows what’s going to happen so you pay your money and roll the dice. After the Spanish Flu pandemic there followed a decade of inflation and rapid growth before 1929 brought that to a screeching and devastating halt!

There is a lot of quality experience looking for work at the moment, and if recruiting airlines can pick up Ferraris and Rolls Royces (more padding) for the price of a Fiat Uno, then why won’t they?

The reason is simple. Confirmation bias by wannabes who have an emotional want to fly and cannot accept the cold hard facts staring them in the face: The party is well and truly over.

Any future pilot shortage in Asia will not help us in Europe 1 iota. Locals only from now on over there. Even the middle east 3 have shed expats by the bucket load over the past year. The US market is for Americans with FAA ratings so any retirement bulge there wont affect us either.

As for future growth in Europe? Unless aircraft ditch fossil fuels politicians will heavily stamp
down on any growth. Zoom/Teams has disrupted the industry and about 50% of business travel has been lost, permanently. The pilot workforce in Europe is very young so there is no looming retirement wave here. In summary, expect very few jobs in Europe over the next few years.

Those starting their training now in Europe are gambling £100k on a high-stakes, high-risk game with a very low probability of success. Patience is key, waiting it out a couple of years to see what happens would be my advice to any wannabes.

People start training because they SHOULD start training in a lull and not during a peak.
Your time from Start to competitive for First Job can be anywhere from 2-7 years depending on a number of factors such as integrated vs modular and loan vs self funded.
Look at the hiring requirements of the popular entry level airlines in Europe.
If you go self funded modular you can do one rating/license a year and be done in 4-5 years.
Even integrated you’re looking at 18-24 months.
Nobody and I mean nobody can truly predict what the market will be in 2-5 years.
It will take 12-24 months for air travel to normalize. Despite an economic recovery some airlines may not recover.
24 months before we know the status of the industry.
Save to say it won’t be worse then it is now.
Flight training is always a gamble, today is not a better or worse time to start.
Go for it, just be smart financially.

Truly dreadful advice in my opinion. This bizarre myth that training in a down-turn is “the best time” is total unsubstantiated rubbish. There is zero evidence to support that notion. Zero.

You need luck and timing in this industry, one of those you can control. You are correct that no-one can predict the situation in 2-5 years time, so why rush into it know when we know it is literally the worst time for aviation since the advent of flight?

*Facepalm*

Did you even read what I posted?
At a minimum you’re at two years.
By the time you’re eligible for your first job you may have gone through a subsequent downtown and uptick.
From the EasyJet website:

So now go backwards:
500 hrs > 10T 1-1.5 years
250 hrs < 10T 1 year
250 hrs CPL training and ATPL exams 2 years
Looking for and applying for jobs 12 months

Thats 5-5.5 years and you’re telling me you shouldn’t start NOW?
You’re entitled to your opinion as am I.
You need to be ready for the next hiring boom and not be at the tail end of one.
Getting experience takes time and how long does it take to fly 1000hrs?
Pretty much exactly 1000hrs.....:suspect:

I don’t make this stuff up you know....
In Economics 101 this is called the Pork Cycle

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_cycle

B2N2

Where do you propose our freshly minted pilot out of training gets the 800 odd hours to get them to 1000, let alone the 500 on a real aircraft required?

Know one knows how long it will be until you can get a job fresh out of training. Anyone starting something like an integrated course is gambling the house that it’s going to be in a couple of years. No chance.

VariablePitchP

So my example was even optimistic.
0-CPL 2 years
250-300 hrs SE banner towing amd glider towing and all sorts of odd flying jobs 3 years
500 hrs KingAir 2 years
Cumulative time unemployed and looking for a job 2 years
9 years total, doesn’t change the fact that every single supply/demand chain is subject to basic economic principles.
It took me 3 years from 0-CPL then 5 years prior to my first paid job flying.
Thats why I recommend pay as you go modular.
Do NOT get a 100k loan and go integrated.

B2N2

Sorry to hit you with some hard facts but you e got BA 747 captains banner towing or flying king airs just now. Your hours will only get you as far as you can afford for sometime to come. You’ll finish with 200 hours and nothing much will happen after that.

Don’t be so naive.

Again.....*sigh*
It will already take you 2 years to get your CPL + 14 exams.
Pointing to the situation today to argue you can’t get a SE flying job in 2 years from now is not an honest argument.

You reckon in two years over 15000 pilots will be re-employed!? Put the lotto on for me my man!

I’ve not posted on here for ages, but look regularly.
Can I ask where on Earth these magical banner towing jobs are or the ‘crop dusting’ ones? (Asking for a friend)

Contact Approach

And when the LoCo's start recruiting FO's again are they going to be looking for a Legacy Captain from another airline or a newbie they can mould in their own image?

Newbies aren’t Captains.........

@B2: You’re right about not going integrated now. That would be an insane decision. £100k is a lot of money to spend to get a job driving an Asda truck.

If you were to start today going modular, keeping your current job, and going as slow as possible without running up any debt would be the only option worth even considering.

There are very few GA jobs in Europe compared to the USA so hour-building in GA is not as realistic as prospect as you make it sound.

No. Your advice is truly dreadful in my opinion.

The best time to train is not in a market low or a market high. The best time to become a pilot is when one CAN become a pilot. PERIOD.

The same applies to buying a house in which one intends to live, or any other form of legitimate INVESTMENT.

Nobody should waste their precious time in life trying to time anything. Obviously we can all tell IN HINDSIGHT which would have been the best decision at the time. We'd all be rich. So let's all please stop saying obvious but useless statements of fact.

OK so here is another problem. What if you were on a "tagged" scheme with a large Integrated training provider and during the course, the pandemic occurred. All payments have been made to the Training Provider in full and they have continued training their customer up to CPL/IR skills test level but want to carry on training for the Type Rating. Would you do this Type Rating or not? What advice can you offer. BTW this is not me!! I am retired thank goodness and if I had children would steer them toward a different career right now.

harveyst

Well they certainly aren’t in the U.K., which of course is the OP’s country of residence....

Seems to me this is a big gamble, similar to guessing which stocks and shares one should invest in. Thankfully I bought low, very low.

(My offspring have never wanted to fly up front. As I’ve always said, the really clever ones are sitting in the back seats).

B2N2

Mate you’re delusional and your advise is terrible. Perhaps you have a vested interest in a flight school, because that’s the only possible reason someone would recommend Aviation as a career in these times.

Reality of the situation is that this lull will take years to recover and as it has been pointed before, there is a huge abundance of qualified (type rated) and heavily experienced pilots whom are stacking shelves at supermarkets, the “lucky” ones found jobs in GA. The same jobs a budding 200hr CPL pilot would be planning to get after finishing flight school.

If a fresh CPL now tries to go out in the real world and get a job in GA to build hours they’ll quickly find that there are virtually no vacant flying jobs out there. Even the smallest operators are inundated with hundreds of applications with experience surpassing their minimums ten folds! As a result, these fresh pilots will fall out of recency and any chance of a flying job will get further and further away. That person will likely fall into depression, rely on welfare and his/her life will fall into remorse and regret.

Seriously people stop telling young kids that Aviation is a viable career option because it simply isn’t. Young kids should go to university and invest in a real career with solid prospects and if they still want to fly for a living then they’ll be in a much better place later on in their lives should another aviation downturn (inevitably) happen. I strongly believe that Aviation career needs a plan B. Trust me no one want to drive a truck or clean houses on minimum wage when they’re 50 because they’ve been furloughed!!

I know it sounds all doom and gloom but as a pilot community I think we have to try and paint an accurate picture free of the lies and manipulation that flight schools thrive upon.