Brexit impact?
 

Hi all!

I was recently wondering about how may Brexit impact to the European citizens which would like to apply for example to a British school, cadet program or airline. Will the CAA's flying license valid through all Europe as it's now (if I'm not wrong)? Is there any info about this? If not, when we might expect the new criteria to be revelled? :cool:

Many thanks! And sorry for any mistake I may have made as it's the first topic I start.

I kindly request not to start any political argument, just aviation please...

They're leaving the EU, not EASA.

With respect, we would need a crystal ball to answer your question. What seventhheaven said is a probable outcome.

I don't want to get into to politics too much, but I would hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I expect the Brexit negotiations to get bitter and nasty, the EU has a vested interest in ensuring that the UK gets a bad deal to deter other countries from leaving and the UK conservatives are preparing a bill to turn the UK into a tax haven as a threat to the EU..... Ironically the southern EU countries seem to be more pragmatic and the northern EU countries seem to be digging trenches already, it'll be an interesting few years to say the least!

I think the idea might be that UK jobs will be given to UK citizens and the EU will be prevented from sending its unemployed young to UK. There will be a barrier to working but not temporary residence for courses or tourism. A bit like it was before the UK entered the Common Market.

In reality, none of us can really provide firm comment on this. None of us understand what's going to happen to the UK aviation market following Brexit and if it's going to hurt anybody it'll be us British pilots / trainees and residency permits/visas which will come out of it when we are asked to work in EU bases.

From the carriers perspective, the likes of Monarch and Thomson operating your point to point holiday flights would remain relatively unaffected as the basis of their business is on ICAO policies and not related to EASA in respect of EU Cabotage. However, the likes of easyJet of which 30% of their network is EU-EU domestic flights, they will simply split their business up in to different AOCs to avoid disruption, as sourced below.

As a current or potential pilot for which I fall in to the latter, this of course raises significant concerns as a Brit, particularly given investment in to training. Nevertheless, it's just going to be a waiting game.

Whilst the UK is currently a part of EASA and it's air traffic organisations are also linked with EuroControl, EASA is inherently linked with the European Union and associated members. In wanting a hard Brexit this may well result in us splitting from EASA or it may not. However, once again the uncertainty created here is simply nobody knowing one way or the other, nothing has been confirmed. One can presume its' in the governments interests to try to retain EASA membership in the modern world we live in, but nothing is certain in life. Not even the UK government has confirmed this in their Whitepaper so we shall simply have to wait and see. If we do leave EASA and return to our own regulated aviation market in respect of licencing then it would be only at this point a UK school licence may differ from one on the continent.

In a nutshell, I can foresee that schools in the UK would still be able to provide you training as many of the larger ones are approved education establishments and in theory could sponsor education visas if need be. As an EU citizen (if indeed you are) things would also be much easier for you in terms of rights to live and work in other EU countries so you'd be much more attractive to the airlines if Brexit really does mess us up.

For the specifics I'm afraid we're going to have to see how things pan out from 31st March on wards. I've got my fingers crossed the industry will be unaffected by it but with that said, the UK Brexit Whitepaper gave a pathetic reference to the industry. So, here's hoping.

gbotley

Well,summed up. Bottom line is nobody knows how it will work out.

What I do know is at an employee level,where I am we're already hearing concerns about the continued ability for EU nationals to work for airlines based in the U.K., and as redbull pointed out, there could be problems for those airlines that currently have UK nationals at "mainland" bases. Not a great state of affairs for those involved.

Pretty much agree, but I think you'd have assume the industry will be affected, to a greater or lesser degree.

The question is a good one and as everyone has pointed out, the answer is "wait and see". But the large elephant the large elephant in the room has a harp on its tail. I've no doubt reciprocity will be used to justify many policies and it will be very interesting to see what one gentleman does. He knows where his money comes from and he won't give up his UK (or will it be English by then?) revenue without a fight. Imagine having him on your side in a negotiation?

I'll stick my neck out and suggest that all the time we remain part of EASA licences will recognised and valid. What may change will be the future rights of those UK national not yet employed to work in the EU and vice-versa.

@wiggy,

Yes, I agree there will almost certainly be areas of the industry shaken by this and I've heard the same from line pilots too. I have to admit its' certainly adding an unnecessary stress to my training as in my mind I see larger airlines having to shift their staff around bases to accommodate the rights of their workers. Or, in worst case situations, it could lead to redundancies - who knows!

Nevertheless, if British pilots all have to move home who knows what that would mean for available job positions in the UK. In any case, I'm hoping that through completing flight school within the next 12 months I'll fall on the right side of that employment window given Brexit won't really hit us hard until March 2019 when the full complete exit is expected to be complete.

I think one not only has to consider the eventual regulatory regime but also Employer attitudes, which I fear may harden up post the forthcoming "divorce", fuelled no doubt by much of the vitriol that has dominated much of the debates. I hope I am wrong about this...

@Expatrick,

Would you mind expanding on your point ref attitudes. What do you mean exactly? The airlines have been far from bitter in respect of their views.

In simple terms, people are people and sometimes, just sometimes, judgements can be coloured by other factors. Not accusing the airlines (or any other sector in particular) but Europe is changing, to what end, who knows?

Regardless of the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, the EU will be radically different 10 years from now, even 5. If, dare I say when, the UK makes a success of leaving the EU and making its own way in the world, the greedy interests, nevermind the populists, in the remaining EU countries might want to try their luck at independence. The upcoming French elections will be one to watch, it could be a good barometer of the appetite for change within the rest of the EU. Now I come to my point, it may not only be UK pilots who can't move between European countries in the future as easily, but as result of potentialy more exits, other countries' pilots could be faced with the same problem. Anyhow, speculation and conjecture is a sport for the fearful, I'm away to enjoy my bag of revels excuse the pun:}

My perspective is that, on the other side of the path of change you will find progress.
Yes there will be uncertainty or scare, judgement or rejection, and indeed struggle or difficulty and hardship in the aftermath of March 31 but there is just enough experience and knowledge in the leadership of this industry and country to steady the ship, and this is the power that underpins progress. Also, you have to understand how strongly attached this country is to this industry. All the consequences would have been thought through even before the referendum itself.

IMHO Yes we know the answers; that single trade deal will be replaced by multiple deals between the UK and individual EU states for movement, et cetera. I'm satisfied that carriers from the mainland EU find connections in the UK profitable which taken with other factors would be enough to trigger such trade deals. If it works for the UK with other countries like Australia, Switzerland, why shouldn't we be optimistic?

Nearly - There can only be one deal with the EU. This is why I voted to leave. Some unaccountable, greedy career politician and his cohort of overpaid lackeys will do ONE deal for EVERY EU country. He won't give a stuff whether it is a good or a bad deal, just so long as it looks like the UK has been punished and the deal can be signed in a good restaurant on Barbados.

Your vote has then been an uninformed one. You display complete ignorance of how the EU commission is formed or how trade deals are made and approved.

It's shocking really.

OO - Which Commisioner did you vote for? Which one can you vote out? Can any EU country have its very own air traffic rights agreement? A quick flick through Articles 208, 217, 218 etc. tells you (ad nauseam) how trade deals are put together by the Commission and the rules that have to be followed. What is shocking is your assumption that you are correct, worse that you hijack this thread to play the player and not the ball. Shame on you!

Back to the thread. I can not see any reason why we would not not pull out of EASA. If for no other reason than we have no longer have the full set of skills at Gatwick Towers to run an independent CAA. Although some may argue they never did!

Piltdown MAn - I voted for my EU representatives the 25th of May 2014. The next election will be on 2019. All EU citizens had a vote; If you didn't vote, that's your problem.

Please realise that there are many different ways to set up a democracy, and none of them are perfect. There are many things you can rightfully criticise the EU for, but it is certainly not undemocratic, especially compared to some of its member states. Remind me, when did you vote for the House of Lords again? Or your monarch?

Great inputs, as a southern Europe citizen I'm grateful to get this great advice! Specially to gbotley and all the other mates. But please, don't mess up with politics here...

For the moment, let's just wait and see until March or even later... Meanwhile, let's observe all the movements around!

Many thanks!

lostinspace 89

I very very much suspect for practical reasons the likes of BA will be strongly lobby for visas or "grandfather rights" for existing employees.

However what will happen with regard to recruiting new employees post Brexit could be more interesting.

Basically will the UK airlines really need to "import" new pilots from Europe post Brexit, or will the government view be that demand is such that the UK can train their own in sufficient numbers/have unemployed UK licence holders who should be recruited before foreign nationals?

It will certainly be very interesting to see Balpa's position on this over the next two years.

But how many many completely untrained pilots would the airlines actually need to pay for these days? Just like now post Brexit people will still shell out to go to the likes of CTC, especially if they think their employment prospects are improved.....

It would be interesting to see how many ATPL holders we have in the UK currently stacking shelves, unable to gain employment in an airline. There will then be the pool of those perhaps fully qualified in a previous airline but laid off ( not sure there's many at the moment)...and then of course there are a fair few fully trained UK expats who might head back to these shores if T&Cs were suitable.

In reality I suspect given the planning that has gone into Brexit :bored: I think what will happen is at the 11th hour somebody, probably an airline CEO, will pop up and say:

" BTW what are we going to do about airline pilots and visas/right to work? I need to replace 100+ this year, the UK passport holder pool is sufficient but the experienced ones can be a bit pricey to attract, we need to keep fares for hard working families down, and of course we need as large a pool as possible to select from so we can maintain standards etc etc "?

There will then be a bit of a "Ooooh" from someone in Government , and as you say the UK will have to sort something out re visas and/or with the EU at short notice....What the arrangement will be is anybody's guess.

Piltdown, spare me your indignation. You opened up with "Some unaccountable, greedy career politician and his cohort of overpaid lackeys will do ONE deal for EVERY EU country...." and further suggested corruption. If you don't like your ignorance challenged, then don't display it.

Trade deals must be approved by all national parliaments and by the European Parliament. All of which consists of democratically elected members.

Likewise the EU Commission where the President must be approved by the European Council and the European Parliament, The same goes for the commissioners.

Now tell me, who elected Therese May as PM?

@One Outsider No one elected Theresa May as PM, neither did they elect David Cameron.

More people voted for their local Conservative MP, hence why they're in power, despite the leader.

Let the topic on aviation related issues, please... It's our real passion, not politics!

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN16320N

Boeing investing 20m in UK factory.

Along with many other investors despite Brexit.

If these guys are confident about the UK post Brexit with all their analysts and forecasting, then I'd prefer to follow their projections.

Also I've read that Brexit is very unlikely to happen in 2019, unless all EU states agree on everything and every policy...which knowing our politicians that is very unlikely to happen..ever..