What could UK Brexit mean for UK pilot jobs
 

As a wannabe pilot, one thing that will effect how I vote tomorrow is how an exit from the EU will effect the availability of pilot jobs for UK citizens. So far I can see two trains of thought and so I would like to hear other peoples opinions on these. Please do not state how you will vote or turn this into a political debate and try to keep this thread to how the UK aviation industry and specifically how trainee and wannabe UK pilots may be affected by Brexit.


The two possible, opposing outcomes that I can see:


1) Brexit would reduce the number of air travellers in and out of the UK due to the loss of free movement in Europe and due to the requirement for new travel visas. This in turn would reduce the number of UK flights and the requirement for pilots. In addition it would make it more difficult for newly-trained pilots to find work elsewhere in the EU due to residency constraints.


2) Brexit would give freshly trained UK pilots more opportunities for employment inside the UK due to the reduced competition from non-UK citizen, EU-resident pilots.


I don't know which of these two statements is likely to be the most accurate but would appreciate opinions.

Hi 4535jacks,

Very interesting question! I'm in the same position as you.

I imagine both will be true. To what extent, however, I'm unsure. I wonder what impact it will have for UK pilots who work a European base.

I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.

The bigger concern is what will happen to the economy, and here it comes down one or two facts, then to opinion.

I think the facts which few would dispute are:

• recruiting in the industry is historically cyclical
• upturns build slowly and downturns are sudden
• this is the best recruiting environment that has been seen for some years (25?)

Now to opinions...

With your second scenario you fail to take into account the British pilots currently working in the EU returning home.

My two pennies: I don't think that that much will change for the pilot/cadet job market since it is has always had an international character. When selecting cadets, airlines might rather have more choice than to cut off lots of talent, looking more than before on how qualified they are though. Not that many employed British will be sent home!

Should it come to a Brexit, I am sure the policy makers will devise some kind of 'soft landing' for EU citizens, depending on how willing the individual continental countries are in making bilateral agreements. With the pragmatic Dutch and Swedes it would work out, the French and Italians might have a more principal view.

It's a very good question.

I can't see that Brexit would do the British aviation industry any good. Two main reasons for this: 1) The CEOs of every British (and one Irish ;) ) airline have come out in favour of remain. 2) Aviation generally benefits from the free movement of people and goods across borders. In order to continue growing (and thus continue recruiting), aviation relies on the continued free movement of people and goods. If Brexit happens and Boris and co. are successful in reducing the number of people coming to (and, whether you like it or not, going from) Britain, it's hard to see how airlines can continue to expand (and thus recruit).

You can probably see where my vote has gone, therefore

Well I guess we will just have to wait and see what effect brexit has. Hopefully it will not have a negative effect on the UK aviation industry.

I have started doing my ATPL's at Bristol. What happens now? Will things change with licences?

We will have to wait and see what the CAA says but we will should be part of EASA for at least two years as we work towards exit and the general consensus across the GA community seems to be that the CAA will stay under EASA after we leave. EASA currently includes non-EU states. This will hopefully mean situation no change in terms of licensing.

I wonder will certain LCC (non UK) who backed a remain be calling many UK pilots to their assessments in the coming weeks ? A question rather than a statement , unprecedented times and I wish all well , as we all know the aviation industry is extremely volatile to any uncertainty.

Current UK pilots living and working in Europe won't be send back home, the new ones will have their options limited to the UK (or Great Britain if the UK will disbandle).
Until the UK does not invoke article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty nothing will change. After that, it would take at least 2 years to see the effects of Brexit.

I was chatting with a devout Brexiteer about this the other day who seemed to be under the impression that this was good for UK pilots as it would cut down on competition for UK jobs.

The argument was something along the lines of assuming that airlines required a working knowledge of their local language (e.g. German for Lufthansa, etc.), and that a knowledge of English was automatically acquired through getting a licence, then EU nationals could almost by default apply for jobs in both their home country and the UK. The opposite not being true for Brits as foreign language skills tend not to stretch beyond secondary school. They believed that if UK airlines could only recruit from the UK in the future, then 90% of the potential competition (i.e. EU residents with English as a 2nd language) would be eliminated. It was an interesting point that sort of made sense at the time (after a long day) but, clearly this simplistic argument ignores anything to do with the state of the economy and political agreements, but who worries about that silly stuff :\

mmm EasyJet moving to an EU AOC (Irish?), part of the operation of Flybe too, less opportunities for contractors in the EU, DHL moving their operation over to the EU...

Even then, UK passport holders would need work visas which might only be issued if a EU citizen couldn't be found to do the job.

Ireland and Great Britain have an agreement based on free passage of travel and rights to work in each others countries which dates back to long before any European Union. This was something the Irish Government is looking to remain - stated by Minister for Finance (Ireland) yesterday

Ireland will be a big winner: all the UK AOC's are looking at a foothold in the EU Ireland is very well positioned. Even better if there is a referendum on uniting North and South I bet there will be a big change that they can get together without any bloodshed.... And GREAT Britain will be probably smaller with a separate Scottish CAA....

Global, what's going to happen to UK pilots? Seems they are going to be limited only to UK carriers based in the UK?

What about the easyJet crews over Europe?

Pilot numbers
 

Does anybody have a sense of the number of UK pilots working for EU operators versus the number of EU pilots working for UK operators? If both side went mad (rather than the one that is currently) and exiled one another's pilot groups, would one group be harder hit than the other?

In my opinion, there are much more UK pilots across the EU bases than EU citizens in UK

Agreed things are looking bleak at the moment but we need to wait and see how thighs pan out. So far RyanAir has only threatened to move operations and its new hangar abroad and easyjet has also only threatened to move as far as I am aware. This may be subject to change depending on how the government decides to reinvigorate the economy and persuade businesses to remain in the UK. Future concessions or tax breaks may encourage some airlines to remain under a UK AOC.

I am concerned how the aviation training sector will endure though. It may become difficult for EU aviation students looking to train at the leading flight schools such as CTC, Oxford, Aeros etc to obtain a student visa.

Some aspiring pilots might want to read this by Ryanair:

Ryanair will shift investment away from UK after Brexit vote

If you were going to apply for Ryanair (which I was/am) I knew it was likely to get based in Europe for first job anyway, the article simply states less new planes on UK routes. Growth still expected to continue. Meh.

But will you still have the right to live and work at one of Ryanair's European bases?

AM

The UK will remain a member of the EU for AT LEAST the next 2 years, and 2 years is measured from the moment the UK formally notifies the EU it intends to leave . The U.K. is in no rush to make such a notification . When the process does eventually begin, it is highly probably that an agreement to maintain the status quo with regards to labour will be reached.

Much more relevant is a discussion of the effects of the referendum on demand for air travel to and from the UK....

BA have already highlighted the fact that business travel demand was down even before the result of the referendum. This is more relevant and of immediate concern, than what may/may not happen in 2 years from now..