Ryanair ooops...
 

Big profit warning to the financial markets this morning (and from a company that is usually conservative in the guidance it gives investors!)
And talk of parking up a lot more hulls than expected this winter.
Given they are the biggest recruiter of low houred pilots that is a big blow to the UK pilot recruitment market? :ugh:

It's a blow for sure, but it's not all bad. They are still operating more aircraft this year than they did last year (quite a lot more). If you analyse that then what this tells us is that they predicted a greater requirement for growth than actually materialised, but there was still growth - and continued substantial growth in the industry on the whole is predicted.

Not sure where you get your info, G-F0RC3.

:ugh:

Do advise what you seem to find incorrect with my info? It's a fact that the airline industry is growing. It's a fact that Ryanair are operating more aircraft this year than they did last year.

It's also a fact that they have issued a profit warning and are cutting back flights over the winter period.

So I'd say that operating MORE aircraft and scheduling LESS flights is not a good recipe for continued low hour pilot recruitment, or for those currently employed.

No point in always looking at the positives on PPRuNe, have to be realistic about the facts and not bury your head in the sand.

I asked you the question.

No point in giving facts if you don't provide the evidence in support.

Awaiting your reply.

BBC News - Ryanair warns that profits may miss forecast

I quote:

"To compensate for the weak demand, Ryanair will ground 70 to 80 aircraft during the winter months, after initially expecting to ground just 50.

That should mean its annual seat capacity will be 81 million seats, still up 2-3% on last year." [my emphasis]

And with reference to the growth of the airline industry, you might be interested in "The Global Airline Industry" by Peter Belobaba, Amedeo Odoni and Cynthia Barnhart of MIT in the USA. I quote:

"The growth of the world air travel has averaged 5% per year over the past 30 years", "...the average 5-6% average annual growth in air travel has been fed by an average 2-3% annual growth in GDP worldwide".

I could go on, but the above is relatively clear. Note as well that the book quoted was written by independent academics who are experts in the field of global aviation. It wasn't written by people from FTOs, airlines or plane construction companies who all may have a business agenda. If you are seriously interested in learning about the field, I'd strongly recommend reading the above.

Finally, I don't have an agenda either. I know the difficulties new recruits face when trying to find a job, and I don't expect that to change any time soon (if ever). But the above does back up my earlier points.

Hope it's helpful. :ok:

Incidentally, if the airline industry wasn't growing then there would be no demand for improving the airline infrastructure worldwide. A third runway at Heathrow, for instance, is something BA have wanted for many years. While airline bosses and politicians have been arguing over it since 2008, China have built almost 50 new airports. And this trend is underlined by the growth of the Asia Pacific market, which is forecast to become the second largest airline market in the world within the near future (overtaking Europe), under North America. :p

I note the scepticism in Mr O'Neill's statement.

Yep, that's why I said in my original post, "It's a blow for sure", and then went on to say that "it's not all bad". In other words, there are still some positives. Perhaps Ryanair won't grow as quickly as they had envisaged, but grow nonetheless they will (and have)... which was my main point on the Ryanair story. :ok:

So that's the part of my original post you were questioning, that Ryanair knew they weren't going to achieve what they had announced, in order to gain an advantage in terms of the stock market? Apologies, in that case your original response to my post was enigmatic, and seemed to be suggestive that my post was entirely wrong, rather than only the specific part you were questioning.

In response to the above, I don't know what Ryanair are doing behind the scenes, so I cannot comment on whether they knew their announced forecasts were realistic or not. I was simply suggesting that they are still growing, and the market is too. Both of these things are true. :)

They also still have too many FOs and always will have. Annual hours are, by average, in decline and have steadily declined for the vast majority of FOs and indeed Captains. The social tax issues across Europe are making things 'interesting,' it would appear. But all that aside, it's a nice big shinny jet with winglets. Good ohh!

God knows I have no love for Ryanair but if you panic when a company issues a "profit warning" then aviation isn't the business for you :hmm:

It's still making a massive profit, just, a few percent less than it predicted. At least it's making a profit at all, which is more than most other airlines in Europe seem to manage at all these days.

Some, maybe even most, of the best jobs in this business are at companies who regularly declare massive losses, i.e. most of the remaining European legacy airlines, and the US majors go in and out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy all the time it seems. And yet we'd all sell our grandmother into slavery for a job at one of those outfits :ok: