The next pilot strong pilot hiring cycle - independent study?
 

Has anyone seen an "independent" study (that tries to be as objective as possible) about when we may expect to see significant hiring again?

Retirements are a bit of a known value, but there are a million other variables at play, and they're hardly predictable. But if you look at historical cycles you can sorta make reasonable guesstimates.

Most of the 'studies' I've seen usually have an agenda behind them; they're either paid for by the flight training industry, or some other industry group has a vested self-interest in making things "look good".

Even while reading the FAA Forecast, which is rosy, I couldn't help but wonder about what some bureaucrat was thinking while writing the forecast.

It was probably something like:

"If I write negative things, then Obama might start cutting funding to the FAA, and me and my friends could lose our jobs."

So are there any truly independent studies out there?

There will be another hiring wave, but how many years out is that hiring wave? 1 year? 2 years? 3 years? Maybe 4? Perhaps more.

there is already some hiring process in the air , but you should look at the chance to be hired for a wannabe or an hero pilot with 747 experience.Wannabes have no chance to be hired after school.

here my prognostics:

2010-2013: no much hiring, based on who you know or Pay to fly.
2014-2018: airlines actively hiring for 500 h on 320/737, 500h could be waived.
2019-.... : end of hiring process, cockpits are full
2020-2021: crisis due to fuel shortage, poverty, wars,...
2022: like 2010, wanabees asking the same questions again and again....

as you can see, there is no hiring time for a fresh CPL pilot.
if you start your school now, you are wasting time and money!

your only chance is pay to fly( to fly for 6 months), or get a job around 2014.
if you land a job, you will certainly lose it in 2021.
the best time to get a job will be 6 years after the crisis: 2016-2017.

A320 rider-- Fuel shortage???? where you get that from?? Last report I read on global oil reserves suggests that there are still 1.3 trillion barrels of proven reserves in traditional oil fields. Estimates of another half a trillion barrels of traditional oil yet to be discovered and up to 3 trillion barrels of non conventional oil, (tar sand/shale etc.)

Globally we burn approx 30 billion barrels a year but that figure has decreased over the last couple of years and is forecast to do so for the next few years at least. Even if the non proven reserves amount to half the estimated amounts, we are still looking at approx 100 years worth of oil.

All of this takes no account for future "green" energy alternatives which will further reduce global demand for oil.

oh dear, prospects after 2017 don't look so great either...

Embraer reveals vision for single-pilot airliners

that said, its hardly independant but...

Comment: Predicted pilot and engineer demand is unsustainable

so which one is the better story.....there is only one way to find out?

...FIGHT

I read the Flight Safety article.

It reads like one of those fake/self-serving press releases the flying schools send out that get printed as "objective news".

Unfortunately F.I. is famous for that; I recall articles from them where they talk about the "pilot shortage", and who do they quote for their source? The sales manager at some flying school.

Journalistic integrity at its finest...

Those schools buy advertising space in magazines like F.I., so they no doubt have say say in the editorial content.

My guess on the next upturn... two to three years. But it'll be significant hiring with lower T & C's. Shortage, no. Hiring, yes.

Wild card is oil prices. If the economy recovers, oil will shoot through the roof... and the cycle repeats...

Unfortunately I don't think you will find an "independent" study or for that matter any research which is really useful. Problem is these studies tend to be released by either:-

- FTO's or
- Aircraft/engine manufacturers

The first category are always upbeat about getting you into training as its lining their pockets. In boom times they argue how great the industry is and you had better rush to start your training citing all of the success stories of little johnny who is now flying a big shiny jet. In down times they change the tone so that you had better get training to be ready for the next upturn in recruiting. Either way according to the FTO's there is never ever a bad time to be training which kind of defies logic I would have thought.

The latter category (eg: Airbus/Boeing) release quite farcical statements at times relating to the number of airframes that will be required over the next 5-10 years. Usually these are in time for the big airshows, Paris, Berlin etc. These projections seem to be based on the false assumptions that:-

- every aircraft currently in use will be scrapped imminently and the operators will then suddenly have a need to buy either Airbus or Boeing but never any other alternative manufacturer

- that the world population will grow at x% and seemingly that every single person will be flying somewhere a lot of the time which kind of misses the point that the vast majority of the world is actually severely poverty stricken and those of us "westerners" who are considered wealthy are actually in a very very small minority.

The only solution is to read all the bollocks produced and apply a healthy dose of common sense and skepticism. Reading the terms and endearment section would be a good start. That will give you a flavour of what the industry is really like, warts and all.

There is significant recruitment going on right now in the sandpit. Unfortunately for wannabes, the opportunities at Emirates, Qatar, etc are mostly - if not exclusively – for people with serious jet time.

The slightly better news is that that covers an awful lot of FOs (not to mention captains) at the likes of Flybe, Easy and Ryanair. A lot of FOs who have been sat, biding their time with nowhere else to go for the last couple of years. And in the case of Flybe, captains who could earn as much in the right hand seat at Emirates. It's not for everyone, but you can bet that all of the above will lose people to the Middle East. In time, that will create opportunities further down the ladder.

My best guess, IF the economy improves, and IF no-one else goes bust, is that several UK carriers will have a need for limited recruitment next winter to cover the 2011 summer schedule. It's a little early to crack open the champagne, and I certainly wouldn't recommend rushing off to Oxford just because experienced guys are eyeing up Dubai and Doha, but it's another sign that the worst is probably behind us.

Things in Asia are starting to look up with airlines like Indigo, GO Air, Jet Airways coming out with advertisements and commercials which just means they have spare money to throw around, plus they are hiring too. And not just hiring but milking the situation.
To appear for an interview and airline exam you have to pay anything between 200 to 400$. This just makes you eligible to take the exam. If you manage to clear the exam and interview you have to pay for your own type rating which is through one of the airlines code share schools. This is a good opportunity for 250hour hero's provided they are ready to shell out the money and not just that, they need to know their stuff too. So its not just about knowing the right people and loads of money.
The recession seems to be getting over for the industry but the rules of the game are definitely changing. Guess this will continue till the Pilot demand and supply equation doesn't overturn.

The market is definitely improving. Emirates recently announcing to hire 700 drivers within the next 18 months. Over in Germany, all majors the likes of LH Regional, Germanwings, Condor, Air Berlin, are hiring. The market is definitely picking up. Just hang in there, it'll happen sooner than you might think. It's always been like that; when one starts hiring others will join in soon... :ok:

and the guys who paid to fly will regret to not have waited...left with no money, training not finished,...

The game is afoot.....

a320... what is your problem? pay 2 fly? fair enough... but please stop the continuous post hi-jacking . If someone started a discussion regarding blow-up dartboards you'd still find a way to revert back to the P2F chat.

P2F is bad. we know. we agree.

move on!

What a ridiculous comment by A320 Rider. Frankly, I find it hard to comprehend.

If hiring starts, which applicant has the greater scope? The chap with Line Hours on type, supported by airline references; or the ubiquotous MEP/IR - (probably lapsed!)

Surely we cannot be that naive? Do you really believe there is a hiring stigma associated with P2F? If so you fail to understand the market.

Hours on type are requisite for employment and will be for some time. I fear that A320 Rider is possibly a 'bed room' musician!! Run along now.

I ditto BigNumbers comments. A320 - either get back to the microsoft flight sim or if you actually have a license, keep current and network. In general; stop bitching on here because some rich boy has beaten you to a job.. it's happening all over the world due to the economic climate. The more savvy wannabe's at the moment are making contacts, researching, trying, building a back up plan - not moaning on here about rich harry...

run along now...

You forgot drugging someone and harvesting their organs in order to pay for the type rating... that's savvy

Barking

A Euro crisis of massive proportions is just around the corner.

Europe is pretty much broke and in debt up to its eye balls.

As a consiquence every European country (and especially UK) is and will slash expenditure.

This will result in very high unemployment, meaning people will not be spending etc etc Euro wide.

There might be a small bubble at the moment of improvement however this has no chance of lasting.

This is infact the best case situation.

Should Germany withdraw it's support for southern European states followed by a failure of the Euro ( yes it could happen) then quite frankly its everyman fo themselves.

Anyone how spends money on training at present is a complete fool.

What he said.


WWW:sad:

This is the most sensible post on this thread - could not agree more with waco!

Wake up and smell the coffee guys - the investment you will make in aviation training will simply not pay you back.

Its frustrating when your dream job seems to be always out of reach and its human nature to aspire to what you perceive to be that "dream job".

If you ever get to be in a position to sit in the RHS (and its a big if for years to come) consider the following facts - and if you think I'm being negative take a trawl through the terms of endearment section of prune for confirmation.

1. You will be in serious debt (unless your mummy & daddy pay)
2. The debt will take years to repay and restrict your future ability to borrow money for other things - cars, mortgages, personal loans etc
3. You will be shafted by the airlines every time you try to move up the ladder with type rating bonds - I fly with several F/O's who are still carrying the burden of ab initio training loans and two or three type rating bond loans because they have moved company to try and climb the ladder
4. You will probably end up being based where you do not want to live - if you ever get a command upgrade the process starts all over again - you will be married with 2.2 kids and a dog, a mortgage, crippling flying debts and then being told "well if you really want a command you will have to be based at the most unpopular company base which will necessitate either a family move (which will go down like a lead baloon with the Mrs) or you living out of a suitcase for a good few years and coming home after finishing on a late, having two days off and travelling back to work for an early start or standby on your second day off! Lets not also forget the money you will need to shell out for accommodation away from home, petrol, lack of family life etc etc!
5. When you are fed up living away from home after the reality kicks in and you still have that "command bond" you will be looking to move again because you now have "command time" and could get back nearer to home - the process starts again - another type rating bond or perhaps you have to shell out for the type rating yourself for the big shiny jet as thats the way the bean counters prefer it these days!
6. By this time the "dream job" is no more - the penny has dropped and you wish you had taken more notice of what you read on pprune all those years ago.

Apart from the above the financial storm clouds still appear on the horizon and a double dip recession is a very strong possibility. The future uncertainty of the Euro and the austerity measures that are now starting to bite around the eurozone are reasons to be very carefull as to your career moves.

If you still aspire to becoming a commercial airline pilot the best bit of advice I can give you is to have a second profession up your arm - the nature of the airline industry is that at some time in the future you will be made redundant and its not a pleasant position to be in for you or your family and all those financial commitments if you do not have something else to fall back to and earn some money.

Whatever advice you choose to believe in good luck everyone!

There are jobs out there.

Since Jan this year, I (600 TT) have had one airline screening with a major (got the call without TR), one definite job offer on a light twin (salary job), another job offer (SE, temp job, salary), and two more freelance gigs (first job on a twin, second job light SE, both unpaid) and another screening coming up (TR would be paid for). Also, in holding pool with a regional and been told by CP chance are good to get the call later this year as the market was "clearly picking up." I am an old fart (well relatively), trained modular, and part of it in Spain. So technically, should you believe everyone says on here, I should be dropping my hopes for employment immediately but offers keep rolling in.

By the way, BY NO MEANS am I trying to brag here but what I'm trying to get at is, there is opportunities out there but you need to look very hard for it.

I can name you several people right now with 200 hours fresh out of the press who passed several screenings and can choose the airline they want to work for. I am not kidding.

The key is, produce a CV that sticks out, e.g. uni degree, languages, ANY flying job will do as long as you stay in the loop. Be 100 percent flexible. If you are not chances are you will not make it. Complete high school to get a shot at a screening over on the continent. Most majors require that over there, e.g. German speaking market.

Last, I actually doubt that P2F schemes will get you an edge over other applicants. In fact, with most airlines it will work against you as they cannot mold you into that person they want. RYR is only one example.

Good luck to everyone looking! :ok:

I got one call for a job on Airbus.
I doubt I will get the job, I will keep you posted.
Last year I got 2 calls for light jet, the 2 companies have been bust.

plenty of job, all bla bla! then nothing come up!!!

I keep reading the odd post by people saying they have low hours and been to lots of interviews and been offered lots of jobs. Yet no-one says a) which airlines b) why they haven't taken the job or c) if its a pay to fly scheme or full salary.
This forum is to help and share information about recruitment - so tell us, who are these airlines that are offering jobs to pilots with 600hrs TT??
Its just I don't know of any - I work for a UK airline and we have just made redundancies - I know the likes of Ryanair are probably still recruiting those who want to pay to work, but that is because part of their profit comes from those guys.

At the moment there are a few jobs for low hour pilots advertised. A quick scan located these possibilities worthy of further investigation.

Olympic Air - Employment Opportunities
Flight crew - Page 3
airberlin.com - Cockpit
Vacancies
CARPATAIR - First Officer - Quality and Safety, Our Fleet, Wet Lease Services
FlyLal are apparently hiring

BTW, I wouldn't class Ryanair as pay to fly. You pay for the TR then they pay you. It is SSTR. P2F is where you pay or don't get paid to fly the line.

I'm not sure how true that is, my invoice for the TR came from CAE and i paid them, i doubt they are one and the same. It would be more accurate to say ryanair don't incur the cost of training you.

Airbus Girl,

I can only speak for myself but here's why I am where I am.

The airline screening I had early this year was with a German major flying in red colors. I failed the ATPL knowledge part so was sent home. Bummer. I had only five weeks to get my ATPL knowledge up to speed, which clearly was not enough. Applicants can try again after 24 months though.

The other job offer was with a GA company specializing in aerial photography. Fleet of aicraft were a twin and one SE. It would have been a permanent position with OK salary but with a bonding. At that time I had a freelance flying job, flying a twin as FO, so I was in the fortunate position of being able to turn it down as I just did not like the idea of being bonded. Tough call though as we all know the rule, never ever turn down a flying job.

Only one months later though I learned of a temp summer job flying a SE. Salary job. I applied, got invited and was offered the job. I was told 67 people had applied, most of which with lots of experience on that aircraft. No bonding, great location so I took it. Just before that I was offered another freelance unpaid SE job dropping jumpers.

I recently applied to a regional airline on the continent and had the written tests and sim ride recently. I passed that stage. Final interview is just around the corner. TR will start this year. On the day were six guys with me, two of which with rating but except one (did not get a chance to speak with him) none of them was being employed right now. One of the guys with rating had not even done anything flying related in two years!

Airlines hiring low timers, apart from RYR, are CLH, GWI, CFG, AB, LGW. AF is also said to be hiring again. Unfortunately, I do not know their requirements.

Best of luck.

or next year, or never...

never believe a company who tell you to start soon.
being rated, base check, line training, it s a long way to go!

1.Not everybody who trains has to get in to massive debts.
2.Not everybody who trains who DOES NOT GET IN TO MASSIVE DEBTS, are being sponsored by Mummy or Daddy!

3.There quite a few with their OWN MONEY, who can afford to spend it on training.

It's so boring everytime I read such comments, that everybody who trains are either of the first 2 situations.
Not everyone training belongs to the 2 first categories.

Now if people with their own finances in order wants to take the risk on an aviation career. Tell them not to train now is nonsense. Might as well maintain the IR, as do general flying. If you do not train now, when finally the UPTURN does arrive, everybody with out their ratings in order will be left behind with another 12 months to complete their training.

Not all pilot students/wannabes are poor idiots without money, brain or understanding the calculated risk they take! :ugh:

AH123
.....so....you work in sales for a flight training organisation.........right?

AH 123

Ahhh, I see now. I top finance guy gives away vital, totally confidential information that should never leave the inside of his office. I would of thought divulging that kind of information would even be regarded as insider trading and could bring with it a jail term.

Either way, its pants. Aviation is in dire poo, especially in the UK. With the euro in crisis and every western nation facing massive cuts, which will result in horrific unemployment which will make 2011 a far worse year for aviation and beyond.

However, don't listen to me go and waste all your money on a pipe dream and join all the others facing bankruptcy.

:ugh:

"there are non so blind as those that cannot see"

AH 123

As per my earlier e-mail. It's not just the UK. All the financial press I read, including the FT drones on about the dire state of aviation world wide.

The f/o's seat is being taken over by the p2f bregade.

I wish you the very, very best of luck but if your career plan is based on what a newspaper says you are taking a huge risk with your future.

But hey, I have only worked in this business for 25 years, what do I know (apart from all those high hours guys who are sat at home with no job, and no prospect of a job other than leaving the family to live far far away).

As I say the very best of luck..........you really are going to need it.:ok:

"However, don't listen to me go and waste all your money on a pipe dream and join all the others facing bankruptcy."

One of the points I was making, is that not all who train are dumb idiots who put themselves into loads of debts!!!

Maybe it is a "pipe dream" - but there are quite a few career changers, with enough money to invest in themselves to try to get the "pipe dream" become a reality.

Some are willing to do whatever it takes, in the right amounts and at the right time. I agree, don't go and get massive debts!

It seems many on these boards that there are only 2 types of pilot wannabes, dumb debt slaves or mummy boys/girls!

After I do complete my IR, I can still afford to keep it, renew it for 10 years if I want, without it would effect my finances to keeping it current.

But if you sit "Waiting to start" - when there finally will be good times, you will again be outside the loop!

Now of course - if you don't have the money, then spend the time now to make the money you need, so when you have your CPL/IR - you don't go under because you became a debt slave!

P2F is wrong, but the system is wrong, when 500 hours 737 time line training is cheaper then paying to fly a light twin!

I think the industry, the ones in the industry should have a look at themselves, because there must be some "smart" bean counter and line training captain that suggested this idea in the first place!

It is amazing, but true - without any pilots agreeing to fly with a P2F FO, this would never have been a problem. That's why my motto is like theirs, look out for number one first!

And if you ever make it onto the line, your colleagues will just love you. Aviation is a very small world, people remember names, and words in the right ears can make all the difference between success and failure. Reputations follow people around, and a reputation for selfishness is not a good one to have.

And as for:

Your logic is flawed, and fundamentally misunderstands the way airline recruitment works. However, as you have everything planned out, and are 'looking out for number one', there doesn't seem much point in debating with you.

Best of luck.

Simple economics dear boy. Why pay an F/O 35k pa plus all of the associated costs associated with employing staff when the wannabe will pay you 50K for a rating and 500 hours. That is a net saving of 85k. Means you are only paying the Captain and you can even afford to pay an extra 10-20k a year given that they will likely be a minimum of a TRI to fly with the newbie. Although in reality you will probably find some idiot who will do the TRI bit for little if any additional pay.

P2F will only go away if there is legislative change or if it can be proved that there is an adverse safety impact form P2F. I can't see either happening nor can I see wannabes who can afford it sticking to their principles.

Bull*hit walks and money talks and all of that. Same goes for anything in life.

"G SXTY" - I have read few of your posts in the past, and I do agree with much of what you say.

I do think you misunderstand a little of the "irony" in my post! (I am not the one looking out for number 1 - how can I be? I don't even have an airline job!!)

I do not step over my friends, and I do not have a problem to give tips where I hear someone might be hiring to friends of mine. I am not in position myself to have a chance for a hiring with any of these companies at the moment anyway.

By helping others today, maybe in the future someone will help me! I can not rely on this, because life has thought me that not all people help others.
When I was doing my PPL, I heard of a few small jobs around, and I told my instructor about this, so he could apply. He did not get a job, but is that being selfish?
I doubt I would find many who would do the same back to me.

I am greatfull for the advice given by you and others on these forums, I don't wish to sound arrogant, because that is not my nature. If someone invests a "small fortune" in this career - I will hope that I would be preferred ahead of someone else, however thinking this way, how can that be wrong? Saying what we think on a forum, makes it seem wrong!

Competition is hard, and I hope everyone makes it, unfortunately some of us will not make it! I have made many friends after I started this journey, and I have to say most of them are great, and if I know of any chance of a job I would tell them - however the people I do not know or have any relation with, what do you expect my attitude to be?
The P2F guys - are selfish - or their parents have made them selfish! And help destroy the industry as we have known it in the past.

I have seen and met plenty with more money than sense, and ready to burn whatever money it takes to get them into that RHS. For me and others this can seem very demotivating, because it puts the pressure on "us" that after we have spent a small fortune on the CPL/ME/IR/MCC/JOC - there is no jobs unless you can spend another small fortune on TR/Line training!

I feel that pilots who have been in steady work over several years, and who I also known have struggled to reach this point of their career, still they have also allowed this P2F happen, as many on this forums have said, the P2F pilots are as capable as any others to be FO's - still I have heard many Captains resent the thought of sitting next to a 250 Low Hour FO, it is not very attractive - however these pilots seem to have NO VOICE in their airlines operations and recruitment! At least we have not heard their voice!

Maybe some of these experienced Captains have forgot what the dream was about, maybe they have lost touch with the struggles they had themselves to get their first job. So who is selfish now? I am not the one who has been looking after myself! I do not have a job, and my chances are according to these forums as remote as being able to manage time travel within the next 100 years!

So many are so angry with the P2F - who is angry? Is it only wannabes? Or do we have some REAL PILOTS, with REAL EXPERIENCE and good jobs, that will stand up for their own profession? For me it seems not to be so, it seems to be no interest to change the root of this problem, because of course they would put their own jobs on the line by refusing this concept, the airlines have won, they have all the power - because people are to afraid of loosing their jobs if they said NO to P2F!

I do understand them, but it is the sad truth of P2F and the future of aviation!

Probably in the UK, certainly not on the continent. We do enjoy the lowest unemployment figures for nearly 20 years now, the economy is growing so fast the forecasts have to be raised every 2 weeks to keep step with the real world and airlines start to hire in earnest now. The weak euro actually helps a lot since our exported goods are cheaper elsewhere which in turn leads to increased orders for those goods. We do have pre-crisis results in some parts of the economy allready, something that was forecasted for 3 years down the line. However if your economy is mainly based on government grants and not on producing and exporting goods you are in for a few very hard years indeed.

Guys, please, stop whining about the bad rich kids hanging on to P2F schemes. There still is more than one company out there hiring low timers and not asking to go along P2Fs. In fact, it's the huge majority.

UK economy is stuffed indeed for a few years to come but economy in central Europe certainly is not. When I embarked on my journey I checked most airlines' websites for their cockpit crew requirements and when I read most outfits require a high school diploma, preferably even a uni degree, to get interviews it was pretty logic to me to get it. Period. Now when I hear in country x companies are hiring I will consider moving there to learn the language to eventually get a shot. It's simple. Plain simple.

With regards to no flying jobs around the UK. As a non-British citizen I had one freelance job in the UK till early this year, another job offer - both positions unpaid though (I do not consider a sandwich and drink pay) -, two definite job offers on the continent in the GA (no jet, one permament, one temp) and am now in two holding pools with turbo prop operators, both of which are said to be hiring towards the end of this year. One of them pays for the rating, even pays a salary during training. I might have gotten extremely lucky but I think it's not like that. It's hard work and persistence.

Really, I truly do not mean to show off but I will not buy that there are no jobs out there. There are. There always are.

I have had the opportunity now of talking to many other wannabes on screenings/interviews and boy, some of those people are so uncreative when it comes to improving their CV! It is shocking. Some of them sit around two years after flight school without doing jack ****. They are happy with just stacking shelves at supermarkets. I mean no shame in that, but if I cannot fly commercially than I will make sure I get my butt in the air privately on as many occasions as I can. I asked them why they had not joined a gliding club for example, I mean, come on, you want to fly so it's got to be your passion, right? They just stared...

Good luck everyone. Hang in there. Times must get better. Times will get better.