The next pilot strong pilot hiring cycle - independent study?
 

Has anyone seen an "independent" study (that tries to be as objective as possible) about when we may expect to see significant hiring again?

Retirements are a bit of a known value, but there are a million other variables at play, and they're hardly predictable. But if you look at historical cycles you can sorta make reasonable guesstimates.

Most of the 'studies' I've seen usually have an agenda behind them; they're either paid for by the flight training industry, or some other industry group has a vested self-interest in making things "look good".

Even while reading the FAA Forecast, which is rosy, I couldn't help but wonder about what some bureaucrat was thinking while writing the forecast.

It was probably something like:

"If I write negative things, then Obama might start cutting funding to the FAA, and me and my friends could lose our jobs."

So are there any truly independent studies out there?

There will be another hiring wave, but how many years out is that hiring wave? 1 year? 2 years? 3 years? Maybe 4? Perhaps more.

there is already some hiring process in the air , but you should look at the chance to be hired for a wannabe or an hero pilot with 747 experience.Wannabes have no chance to be hired after school.

here my prognostics:

2010-2013: no much hiring, based on who you know or Pay to fly.
2014-2018: airlines actively hiring for 500 h on 320/737, 500h could be waived.
2019-.... : end of hiring process, cockpits are full
2020-2021: crisis due to fuel shortage, poverty, wars,...
2022: like 2010, wanabees asking the same questions again and again....

as you can see, there is no hiring time for a fresh CPL pilot.
if you start your school now, you are wasting time and money!

your only chance is pay to fly( to fly for 6 months), or get a job around 2014.
if you land a job, you will certainly lose it in 2021.
the best time to get a job will be 6 years after the crisis: 2016-2017.

A320 rider-- Fuel shortage???? where you get that from?? Last report I read on global oil reserves suggests that there are still 1.3 trillion barrels of proven reserves in traditional oil fields. Estimates of another half a trillion barrels of traditional oil yet to be discovered and up to 3 trillion barrels of non conventional oil, (tar sand/shale etc.)

Globally we burn approx 30 billion barrels a year but that figure has decreased over the last couple of years and is forecast to do so for the next few years at least. Even if the non proven reserves amount to half the estimated amounts, we are still looking at approx 100 years worth of oil.

All of this takes no account for future "green" energy alternatives which will further reduce global demand for oil.

oh dear, prospects after 2017 don't look so great either...

Embraer reveals vision for single-pilot airliners

that said, its hardly independant but...

Comment: Predicted pilot and engineer demand is unsustainable

so which one is the better story.....there is only one way to find out?

...FIGHT

I read the Flight Safety article.

It reads like one of those fake/self-serving press releases the flying schools send out that get printed as "objective news".

Unfortunately F.I. is famous for that; I recall articles from them where they talk about the "pilot shortage", and who do they quote for their source? The sales manager at some flying school.

Journalistic integrity at its finest...

Those schools buy advertising space in magazines like F.I., so they no doubt have say say in the editorial content.

My guess on the next upturn... two to three years. But it'll be significant hiring with lower T & C's. Shortage, no. Hiring, yes.

Wild card is oil prices. If the economy recovers, oil will shoot through the roof... and the cycle repeats...

Unfortunately I don't think you will find an "independent" study or for that matter any research which is really useful. Problem is these studies tend to be released by either:-

- FTO's or
- Aircraft/engine manufacturers

The first category are always upbeat about getting you into training as its lining their pockets. In boom times they argue how great the industry is and you had better rush to start your training citing all of the success stories of little johnny who is now flying a big shiny jet. In down times they change the tone so that you had better get training to be ready for the next upturn in recruiting. Either way according to the FTO's there is never ever a bad time to be training which kind of defies logic I would have thought.

The latter category (eg: Airbus/Boeing) release quite farcical statements at times relating to the number of airframes that will be required over the next 5-10 years. Usually these are in time for the big airshows, Paris, Berlin etc. These projections seem to be based on the false assumptions that:-

- every aircraft currently in use will be scrapped imminently and the operators will then suddenly have a need to buy either Airbus or Boeing but never any other alternative manufacturer

- that the world population will grow at x% and seemingly that every single person will be flying somewhere a lot of the time which kind of misses the point that the vast majority of the world is actually severely poverty stricken and those of us "westerners" who are considered wealthy are actually in a very very small minority.

The only solution is to read all the bollocks produced and apply a healthy dose of common sense and skepticism. Reading the terms and endearment section would be a good start. That will give you a flavour of what the industry is really like, warts and all.

There is significant recruitment going on right now in the sandpit. Unfortunately for wannabes, the opportunities at Emirates, Qatar, etc are mostly - if not exclusively – for people with serious jet time.

The slightly better news is that that covers an awful lot of FOs (not to mention captains) at the likes of Flybe, Easy and Ryanair. A lot of FOs who have been sat, biding their time with nowhere else to go for the last couple of years. And in the case of Flybe, captains who could earn as much in the right hand seat at Emirates. It's not for everyone, but you can bet that all of the above will lose people to the Middle East. In time, that will create opportunities further down the ladder.

My best guess, IF the economy improves, and IF no-one else goes bust, is that several UK carriers will have a need for limited recruitment next winter to cover the 2011 summer schedule. It's a little early to crack open the champagne, and I certainly wouldn't recommend rushing off to Oxford just because experienced guys are eyeing up Dubai and Doha, but it's another sign that the worst is probably behind us.

Things in Asia are starting to look up with airlines like Indigo, GO Air, Jet Airways coming out with advertisements and commercials which just means they have spare money to throw around, plus they are hiring too. And not just hiring but milking the situation.
To appear for an interview and airline exam you have to pay anything between 200 to 400$. This just makes you eligible to take the exam. If you manage to clear the exam and interview you have to pay for your own type rating which is through one of the airlines code share schools. This is a good opportunity for 250hour hero's provided they are ready to shell out the money and not just that, they need to know their stuff too. So its not just about knowing the right people and loads of money.
The recession seems to be getting over for the industry but the rules of the game are definitely changing. Guess this will continue till the Pilot demand and supply equation doesn't overturn.

The market is definitely improving. Emirates recently announcing to hire 700 drivers within the next 18 months. Over in Germany, all majors the likes of LH Regional, Germanwings, Condor, Air Berlin, are hiring. The market is definitely picking up. Just hang in there, it'll happen sooner than you might think. It's always been like that; when one starts hiring others will join in soon... :ok:

and the guys who paid to fly will regret to not have waited...left with no money, training not finished,...

The game is afoot.....

a320... what is your problem? pay 2 fly? fair enough... but please stop the continuous post hi-jacking . If someone started a discussion regarding blow-up dartboards you'd still find a way to revert back to the P2F chat.

P2F is bad. we know. we agree.

move on!

What a ridiculous comment by A320 Rider. Frankly, I find it hard to comprehend.

If hiring starts, which applicant has the greater scope? The chap with Line Hours on type, supported by airline references; or the ubiquotous MEP/IR - (probably lapsed!)

Surely we cannot be that naive? Do you really believe there is a hiring stigma associated with P2F? If so you fail to understand the market.

Hours on type are requisite for employment and will be for some time. I fear that A320 Rider is possibly a 'bed room' musician!! Run along now.

I ditto BigNumbers comments. A320 - either get back to the microsoft flight sim or if you actually have a license, keep current and network. In general; stop bitching on here because some rich boy has beaten you to a job.. it's happening all over the world due to the economic climate. The more savvy wannabe's at the moment are making contacts, researching, trying, building a back up plan - not moaning on here about rich harry...

run along now...

You forgot drugging someone and harvesting their organs in order to pay for the type rating... that's savvy

Barking

A Euro crisis of massive proportions is just around the corner.

Europe is pretty much broke and in debt up to its eye balls.

As a consiquence every European country (and especially UK) is and will slash expenditure.

This will result in very high unemployment, meaning people will not be spending etc etc Euro wide.

There might be a small bubble at the moment of improvement however this has no chance of lasting.

This is infact the best case situation.

Should Germany withdraw it's support for southern European states followed by a failure of the Euro ( yes it could happen) then quite frankly its everyman fo themselves.

Anyone how spends money on training at present is a complete fool.

What he said.


WWW:sad:

This is the most sensible post on this thread - could not agree more with waco!

Wake up and smell the coffee guys - the investment you will make in aviation training will simply not pay you back.

Its frustrating when your dream job seems to be always out of reach and its human nature to aspire to what you perceive to be that "dream job".

If you ever get to be in a position to sit in the RHS (and its a big if for years to come) consider the following facts - and if you think I'm being negative take a trawl through the terms of endearment section of prune for confirmation.

1. You will be in serious debt (unless your mummy & daddy pay)
2. The debt will take years to repay and restrict your future ability to borrow money for other things - cars, mortgages, personal loans etc
3. You will be shafted by the airlines every time you try to move up the ladder with type rating bonds - I fly with several F/O's who are still carrying the burden of ab initio training loans and two or three type rating bond loans because they have moved company to try and climb the ladder
4. You will probably end up being based where you do not want to live - if you ever get a command upgrade the process starts all over again - you will be married with 2.2 kids and a dog, a mortgage, crippling flying debts and then being told "well if you really want a command you will have to be based at the most unpopular company base which will necessitate either a family move (which will go down like a lead baloon with the Mrs) or you living out of a suitcase for a good few years and coming home after finishing on a late, having two days off and travelling back to work for an early start or standby on your second day off! Lets not also forget the money you will need to shell out for accommodation away from home, petrol, lack of family life etc etc!
5. When you are fed up living away from home after the reality kicks in and you still have that "command bond" you will be looking to move again because you now have "command time" and could get back nearer to home - the process starts again - another type rating bond or perhaps you have to shell out for the type rating yourself for the big shiny jet as thats the way the bean counters prefer it these days!
6. By this time the "dream job" is no more - the penny has dropped and you wish you had taken more notice of what you read on pprune all those years ago.

Apart from the above the financial storm clouds still appear on the horizon and a double dip recession is a very strong possibility. The future uncertainty of the Euro and the austerity measures that are now starting to bite around the eurozone are reasons to be very carefull as to your career moves.

If you still aspire to becoming a commercial airline pilot the best bit of advice I can give you is to have a second profession up your arm - the nature of the airline industry is that at some time in the future you will be made redundant and its not a pleasant position to be in for you or your family and all those financial commitments if you do not have something else to fall back to and earn some money.

Whatever advice you choose to believe in good luck everyone!

There are jobs out there.

Since Jan this year, I (600 TT) have had one airline screening with a major (got the call without TR), one definite job offer on a light twin (salary job), another job offer (SE, temp job, salary), and two more freelance gigs (first job on a twin, second job light SE, both unpaid) and another screening coming up (TR would be paid for). Also, in holding pool with a regional and been told by CP chance are good to get the call later this year as the market was "clearly picking up." I am an old fart (well relatively), trained modular, and part of it in Spain. So technically, should you believe everyone says on here, I should be dropping my hopes for employment immediately but offers keep rolling in.

By the way, BY NO MEANS am I trying to brag here but what I'm trying to get at is, there is opportunities out there but you need to look very hard for it.

I can name you several people right now with 200 hours fresh out of the press who passed several screenings and can choose the airline they want to work for. I am not kidding.

The key is, produce a CV that sticks out, e.g. uni degree, languages, ANY flying job will do as long as you stay in the loop. Be 100 percent flexible. If you are not chances are you will not make it. Complete high school to get a shot at a screening over on the continent. Most majors require that over there, e.g. German speaking market.

Last, I actually doubt that P2F schemes will get you an edge over other applicants. In fact, with most airlines it will work against you as they cannot mold you into that person they want. RYR is only one example.

Good luck to everyone looking! :ok:

I got one call for a job on Airbus.
I doubt I will get the job, I will keep you posted.
Last year I got 2 calls for light jet, the 2 companies have been bust.

plenty of job, all bla bla! then nothing come up!!!