We're all *****d!
 

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/afp/2008060...l-a7ad41d.html


Need I say more.

My 2p

I take some confidence from

"We have ordered 119 and have options for another 88," he said. "We will double in size in the next five years."

And the fact that Ryan have ordered something like 109 a/c for next year too.
Correct me if i am wrong though.

B

Those orders were placed before the latest oil price increase :ugh:

Well "Lawn Mower"......i'd say with gas prices the way they are now, the person thats closest to be :mad: is you.....You may want to check out "Motor-Boating"




It's like I've been saying...the only biz that will never have financial woes is th porno biz:8

"Those orders were placed before the latest oil price increase :ugh:"

Ah i see my bad.
But still i wouldnt have thought that one purchases what i percieve to be a large number of a/c without doing some forecasting and risk analysis?

The source of this story is Easyjet; one of the carriers poised to benefit from such a re-adjustment so it's hardly an unbiased article.

I think there will certainly be challenging times ahead - when haven't there been in this business! - but to say we are all *****d is an overly-pessimistic view!

It also states that EZY are not going to revise aircraft orders even in light of fuel price pressures. This tells me that they believe the model to be strong and will need more crews.

There will be ups and down in all industries. Unless you are a dentist or a surgeon I cannot really see a safe heaven, where your role is guaranteed.

You misunderstand - they will take the deliveries as advertised, but they will take the opportunity to retire older aircraft, even 5-year old -800s/A319s if the worst arises. Don't underestimate how much cheaper it is to park the aircraft rather than fly them at a loss.

This enables them to maintain a newer fleet than the competition, and to take advantage of aircraft value changes.

EZY'd deal with Airbus is thought by many commentators to be a Buy One Get One Free deal. The order was negotiated in the wake of Sept11th when Airbus were facing closing the factory due to all the orders being cancelled. The EZY order kept the production line running and avoided having to lay off the French workforce which is near impossible.

They'll take every airframe they offered. How long they keep them is an entirely different thing.

Just take it from me. Major house price crash = major recession = majorly bad time for Wannabes as anyone with a Frzn ATPL is either in McDonalds or Burger King and they ain't eating.


The light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of the train.


WWW

WWW - stop it with the negative waves man:ugh:. We all know things may not be that rosey:sad:, but there is no need to blow things way outta proportion:=. That been said if ''The Sun'' needs someone to write for them I reckon you'd do a great job:}

WWW

"Major house price crash = major recession"

Why?

The current house price 'crash' is just an adjustment of prices back to standard values following a period of stupid greed fuelled price soaring - nothing more.

Typically house price 'crashes' follow not proceed recessions dont they?

Recession > manufacturing/service sector (seen as we dont make anything anymore) downturn > job losses > mortgage difficulties > house price crash?

Manufacturing/service sectors havnt crumbled, people arent being laid off left right and centre.....no recession as yet AFAIK.

Inter-bank issues exist granted - not really indicative or a result of the UK economy IMHO. In fact the UK economy has dealt with this pretty well (so they keep telling us) - which maybe indicative of it its strength.

Oil prices -woooo - Not a shortage lead issue AFAIK. This is a supply issue. The OPEC countries are squeezing us by strangling thier supply/prcessing rates. Might end in war (in which we all jump out of our airliners (when/if we ever get in one:)) and into our Typhoons....yay) but not a recession:)

Too gloomy for my liking although i am with DJ here in that I think the train-headlight reference is very good:ok:

Additionally I saw one front page on Sunday (the S.Times maybe) 'shouting' how the summer holiday trade or lack of will cripple the airline industry.....why?......beacuse a fair to Malaga for example will have to increase by £5 per passenger due to increase prices in fuel...ohhh wow..I can just see them queing now in the 'OMG i am not paying that line.' :ugh:

B

1> Lower/lack of house equity (via a crash or readjustment) will mean less wanabees...

2> Tighter economic outlook will likely slow the modular wanabees too (less/no money for school if petrol and diesel is at $1.50+ litre and the Tesco bill is 40% higher! etc etc

On the up side:

3> People still retire and those seats still need to be filled.

4> The BRIC nations/Asia are in a major growth stage in aviation, jobs there if you're willing to commute/relocate.

And in the middle...

5> tighter outlook and issues 1 and 2 could mean cheaper integrated courses?

iX

Good point DJ
To bolster the argument that the |UK economy is quite strong at the moment - Just think of the revenue Gordon has moused away on the back of the petrol/deisel price hikes too.
Apparenyly the coffers are about to burst hence the argument to scrap the forthcoming further rise!

A side benefit of the high oil price is that Middle Eastern countries have even more money to spend on air travel. Their airlines are booming and there's no way they can fill their flight decks just using indigenous pilots. Qatar plans to double their fleet in two years, Emirates and others are booming. Unlike India, they are actually building the infrastructure to support the fleet expansion. The Chinese are also building infrastructure quickly, though perhaps just for the Olympics. India hasn't figured this out and their growth is not sustainable until they do. Every Captain these airlines hire away will mean the EU carriers promote from within and take in a new FO at the bottom. This alone won't turn it around for every wannabe, but it is likely to be less dire than some here predict.

As for the EasyJet induced article, I wonder why they might want you to think everyone but them will go to the wall? I guess I better book my summer holiday with EasyJet since they'll still be around in August and I won't be left holding a worthless ticket. Oh yeah, hasn't anyone ever heard of traveler's insurance covering airline bankruptcy risk?

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.


I suggest the period 1989 - 1993 for a starting point in Wannabe education.

WWW

WWW

The earlier comment regarding McDonalds is not far off the mark - several colleagues & I spent an enlightning 3 years during this period working in the local Tesco's on the nightshift trying to make ends meet anticipating a right-hand seat in our sponsor's airline; it was almost 5 years before we got the call by which time most of us had found a flying job elsewhere. Of the original 44 cadets, only 25 were given a job though, as the unsuccessful were not seen to meet the company's 'new' recruitment profile. So a long time to wait for nothing.

Incidentally, we were all qualified flying instructors sitting on approx. 1000hrs & our sponsor was a well known British company who formally painted what looked like a lady in a wheelchair holding a pitchfork on the tail.:}

During that period, there were literally no flying jobs in the U.K. for guy's with our experience level.

Did you want fries with that....

As much as I wouldn't want to dis-spirit wannabes, I am going to agree with WWW here.

The industry is currently very very bleak, and is going to remain so for a considerably long time to come. When fuel costs come down and economic recession has had its stay, then it will pick up again. However, at the moment, as we were discussing earlier on, this is not really the time that you want to be leaving an FTO without a job offer at the end.

Maybe more wannabes should consider instructing for a while - but so many get seduced by the thought of flying a jet.

I have a job with a major UK carrier, however, I am worried myself about what the rest of this year is going to bring.

Take heed of what WWW says here guys. I have a feeling that it really isn't far off the truth.

WWW isn't far off the mark. There will be jobs though...just not in the UK. This summer isn't the problem as there are plenty of airlines hedged but next summer will see serious pain unless Fat Gordan's Fairy Godmother can wave a magic wand.

I am not sure oil prices will drop in the future, in my opinion high oil prices are here to stay for good. This is driven by a dwindling supply and a strong demand from emerging markets such as India and China. The global demand is increasing by the day, and oil will be sold to the highest bidder.

According to oil-price.net a barrel costs around $127 today but is forecast to cost around $165 in a year. Not good.

Reading articles on major websites providing information on the matter (IATA, The Guardian, BBC etc.) it seems as if very tough times lay ahead for aviation.

Interesting stuff. I'm so far removed from the wanabee end of things that I'm no even sure what a wanabee is - but can I ask the following question?

Seems to me in the days of Old that the likes of "Tootles" and WWW are on about it was easier financially to take an enforced break from the career path than is is now. OK, Tesco's/McD or Burger king wouldn't be great but my guess is that you guys at that time didn't have to think about repaying a 70K - 100K loan. Seems to me the new generation are going to be hit by the double whammy of the airlines closing the doors and the bank manager wanting his dosh back. Hard times ahead - who to blame: the FTOs, financial Industry, starry eyed wanabees, lady luck?