Is now a good time to start training?
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Is now a good time to start training?
Undertaking pilot training seems to be only half the battle, timing it right is the other half. So is the timing right now to start training? There's a tactic that suggests starting training in a pilot recession should enable you to catch the upswing wave.
It would seem that against the odds there are some subtle signs of recovery in the pilot job market at present with several carriers starting to hint they may be recruiting later in the year. Others are starting partially sponsored cadet schemes eg Easyjet/CTC(which at least shows they anticipate a need to bring in new blood some months from now).
I find this hard to understand given we are days away from a probable Gulf II and Buzz had just pushed even more type rated pilots onto the market.
I'd value any views on whether you foresee things improving for self-sponsored pilots in the next 18 months (ie the time it takes to train from now) or whether we're likely to face a recruitment freeze for the next 4 years as happened after the first Gulf War. This information would be appreciated in light of the fact that I am seriously considering finally taking the plunge and doing an Ab-initio course.
I've spent two years dithering and at (just) 34, I can't really afford to wait another 2!
Thanks,
Desk-pilot
It would seem that against the odds there are some subtle signs of recovery in the pilot job market at present with several carriers starting to hint they may be recruiting later in the year. Others are starting partially sponsored cadet schemes eg Easyjet/CTC(which at least shows they anticipate a need to bring in new blood some months from now).
I find this hard to understand given we are days away from a probable Gulf II and Buzz had just pushed even more type rated pilots onto the market.
I'd value any views on whether you foresee things improving for self-sponsored pilots in the next 18 months (ie the time it takes to train from now) or whether we're likely to face a recruitment freeze for the next 4 years as happened after the first Gulf War. This information would be appreciated in light of the fact that I am seriously considering finally taking the plunge and doing an Ab-initio course.
I've spent two years dithering and at (just) 34, I can't really afford to wait another 2!
Thanks,
Desk-pilot
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Hi
I'm basically in a similar position to yourself. I'm wanting to start my ATPL ground school work some time this year, even though finacing it will proberly is yet to be sorted, but once done; as you say with an expected war and the airline industry being in the not best of health at the moment, would one expect things to pick up in the near future?
ATPL etc takes a while to complete, and "hopefully" the industry will be in better health at the end of it.
I've either got the choice of doing this ground school at a college or otherwise maybe going to do a course (not a long course e.g. 2-3yrs @ uni) on something completely different but where some other strong abilities lye ie. computer design etc.. .. just some thing to do during the mean time while the airline industry picks up.
I'll proberly resort to ATPL @ the moment, but i'll see how things go. I'm just finishing off my PPL and abit of hour building seems the most sensable thing to do.
Cheers
I'm basically in a similar position to yourself. I'm wanting to start my ATPL ground school work some time this year, even though finacing it will proberly is yet to be sorted, but once done; as you say with an expected war and the airline industry being in the not best of health at the moment, would one expect things to pick up in the near future?
ATPL etc takes a while to complete, and "hopefully" the industry will be in better health at the end of it.
I've either got the choice of doing this ground school at a college or otherwise maybe going to do a course (not a long course e.g. 2-3yrs @ uni) on something completely different but where some other strong abilities lye ie. computer design etc.. .. just some thing to do during the mean time while the airline industry picks up.
I'll proberly resort to ATPL @ the moment, but i'll see how things go. I'm just finishing off my PPL and abit of hour building seems the most sensable thing to do.
Cheers
There is an argument that you train in recession to be best placed for the upswing.
I do not subscribe to that argument.
WWW
I do not subscribe to that argument.
WWW
PPRuNe Handmaiden
If I may so bold to answer for WWW.
One word. Risk.
Risk to servicing your loan, risk to your house (if you have one) and risk to your loved ones sanity.
There are many "what if's" in aviation (and indeed life). Aviation, in particular Charter and holiday type Airlines are extremely sensitive to the economy. If the economy sneezes, aviation catches a cold. There has been no real sign that the economy of European nations and the US of A is out of the doldrums yet.
So lets say you start training now, 2 years on you are ready to enter the workforce as a pilot. Bear in mind, there are a lot of unemployed pilots out there RIGHT NOW. Many are only partially employed or on unpaid leave.... Now, lets us consider the economy doesn't pick up. The employment rate is still low and now you have a 50-60K+ loan to service. If the going's good you should still be able to work and wait. If the going's not good? Then what?
You are flat out staying current, let alone ready for a sim check.
If you are someone that is seriously cashed up and don't have to pay off a loan or mortgage then you are ok. If you need to get a loan etc, think twice about it.
By all means, start the relatively cheap options like doing a PPL and the like. However, stop and reassess every move. Watch the economy like a hawk and not with rose coloured glasses.
Think of this flying game like buying a house. You wouldn't spend 50,000 pounds without having an engineer survey it and a solicitor go through the deeds etc? Look at aviation with the same objectivity.
Aviation isn't strictly a sine wave, more like a delayed saw tooth.
After the last bunfight in the Gulf, (1991) it took till about 95-96 for some recruiting to occur. Then it boomed in 97-99.
Cold hard facts. Ignore them at your peril.
One word. Risk.
Risk to servicing your loan, risk to your house (if you have one) and risk to your loved ones sanity.
There are many "what if's" in aviation (and indeed life). Aviation, in particular Charter and holiday type Airlines are extremely sensitive to the economy. If the economy sneezes, aviation catches a cold. There has been no real sign that the economy of European nations and the US of A is out of the doldrums yet.
So lets say you start training now, 2 years on you are ready to enter the workforce as a pilot. Bear in mind, there are a lot of unemployed pilots out there RIGHT NOW. Many are only partially employed or on unpaid leave.... Now, lets us consider the economy doesn't pick up. The employment rate is still low and now you have a 50-60K+ loan to service. If the going's good you should still be able to work and wait. If the going's not good? Then what?
You are flat out staying current, let alone ready for a sim check.
If you are someone that is seriously cashed up and don't have to pay off a loan or mortgage then you are ok. If you need to get a loan etc, think twice about it.
By all means, start the relatively cheap options like doing a PPL and the like. However, stop and reassess every move. Watch the economy like a hawk and not with rose coloured glasses.
Think of this flying game like buying a house. You wouldn't spend 50,000 pounds without having an engineer survey it and a solicitor go through the deeds etc? Look at aviation with the same objectivity.
Aviation isn't strictly a sine wave, more like a delayed saw tooth.
After the last bunfight in the Gulf, (1991) it took till about 95-96 for some recruiting to occur. Then it boomed in 97-99.
Cold hard facts. Ignore them at your peril.
Chieftan o'the Pudden Race
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Now is probably not the right time to get into flight training. There is simply too much uncertainty in the world's economies.
If you really are commited to becoming a commercial pilot then look carefully at the modular route. This allows for a certain amount of flexibility. Doing the PPL/IMC/Night ATPL ground exams and CPL/ME will take up about a year. At that point you can stop and see what has happened in the world. If things still don't look too rosy. Hold short on the IR, and start looking for some work to keep the mortgage paid. If you have skills that can be used on a contract basis (IT, HGV driving, offshore etc) it may be worth investigating those area before you begin any training.
At this point you will hold a commercial licence, and if there are signs that things are starting to pick up completing your IR will take a few weeks and you will be ready to tackle the interviews with the IR skills still fresh.
If you start training now bear in mind that you may not be able to find work as a paid pilot for sometime to come. At the end of the day the choice is yours, but you are investing a significant amount of time money and effort into something that may not produce a return on investment for up to 10 years after you begin.
If you are married or in a serious long term realtionship consider your significant other. Keep them involved and explain the level of commitment required, it will put a strain on your relationship. Some relationships do not survive aviation training. Be aware of the risks you are taking.
None of this is meant to put you off (believe it or not!) but you should always hope for the best and plan for the worst.
I am a similar age to you, so if you have any questions drop me a PM and I will do what I can to answer them.
If you really are commited to becoming a commercial pilot then look carefully at the modular route. This allows for a certain amount of flexibility. Doing the PPL/IMC/Night ATPL ground exams and CPL/ME will take up about a year. At that point you can stop and see what has happened in the world. If things still don't look too rosy. Hold short on the IR, and start looking for some work to keep the mortgage paid. If you have skills that can be used on a contract basis (IT, HGV driving, offshore etc) it may be worth investigating those area before you begin any training.
At this point you will hold a commercial licence, and if there are signs that things are starting to pick up completing your IR will take a few weeks and you will be ready to tackle the interviews with the IR skills still fresh.
If you start training now bear in mind that you may not be able to find work as a paid pilot for sometime to come. At the end of the day the choice is yours, but you are investing a significant amount of time money and effort into something that may not produce a return on investment for up to 10 years after you begin.
If you are married or in a serious long term realtionship consider your significant other. Keep them involved and explain the level of commitment required, it will put a strain on your relationship. Some relationships do not survive aviation training. Be aware of the risks you are taking.
None of this is meant to put you off (believe it or not!) but you should always hope for the best and plan for the worst.
I am a similar age to you, so if you have any questions drop me a PM and I will do what I can to answer them.
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Whilst some may say that right now is not the right time to start pilot training, the managing director of a leading central-england flying school disagrees whole-heartedly!:
"During recent months we have been observing a significant improvement in recruitment oportunities within the airline industry. Simply by observing the fleet grwoth plans for the "low-cost" carriers and the sharper focus from mainline carriers coupled with planned pilot retirements, A PILOT SHORTAGE IS NOT FAR AROUND THE CORNER!
Bearing in mind the fact that it takes at least 18 to 20 months to train an ab-initio pilot to become a First Officer, opportunities for graduates from quality training courses in 2004 should be extremely attractive. WITHOUT QUESTION, THIS IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME TO COMMENCE TRAINING IN READINESS FOR THIS EXPECTED DEMAND FOR TRAINED PILOTS."
There's optimism for you. Food for thought though!
"During recent months we have been observing a significant improvement in recruitment oportunities within the airline industry. Simply by observing the fleet grwoth plans for the "low-cost" carriers and the sharper focus from mainline carriers coupled with planned pilot retirements, A PILOT SHORTAGE IS NOT FAR AROUND THE CORNER!
Bearing in mind the fact that it takes at least 18 to 20 months to train an ab-initio pilot to become a First Officer, opportunities for graduates from quality training courses in 2004 should be extremely attractive. WITHOUT QUESTION, THIS IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME TO COMMENCE TRAINING IN READINESS FOR THIS EXPECTED DEMAND FOR TRAINED PILOTS."
There's optimism for you. Food for thought though!
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I would say have a go - hopefully there will be an improvement soon!
Make sure you have something to fall back on - I currently working my way through my training, whilst also having a training contrct with one of the big four accountancy firms. Which is a way of financing my ambition and will provide a good base if I am unlucky with job hunting in the future.
Good luck to everyone!
Make sure you have something to fall back on - I currently working my way through my training, whilst also having a training contrct with one of the big four accountancy firms. Which is a way of financing my ambition and will provide a good base if I am unlucky with job hunting in the future.
Good luck to everyone!
Chieftan o'the Pudden Race
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uk you say
The MD of any flying school is going to say that sort of thing isn't he? He has a business to run and needs to attract paying punters through the door. He wants people to part with in excess of GBP60,000.
As for
certain flying schools were saying that by the 14th of September 2001, and will probably be saying the same thing this time next year.
As for there being a pilot shortage just around the corner, do search on this forum using that sentence. See what you can dig up. The last time there was a pilot shortage in the UK was around the summer of 1940. Take all the marketing speak with a huge pinch of salt.
Of the 20 or so people I know who have gained CPL/IR (MCC etc) qualifications in the last 24 months only 4 have got jobs. 2 bought type ratings, one was lucky enough to get a sponsorship position and one was just a spawny git
.
the managing director of a leading central-england flying school disagrees whole-heartedly!:
As for
WITHOUT QUESTION, THIS IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT TIME TO COMMENCE TRAINING IN READINESS FOR THIS EXPECTED DEMAND FOR TRAINED PILOTS."
As for there being a pilot shortage just around the corner, do search on this forum using that sentence. See what you can dig up. The last time there was a pilot shortage in the UK was around the summer of 1940. Take all the marketing speak with a huge pinch of salt.
Of the 20 or so people I know who have gained CPL/IR (MCC etc) qualifications in the last 24 months only 4 have got jobs. 2 bought type ratings, one was lucky enough to get a sponsorship position and one was just a spawny git
.
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I agree with Flypuppy.
Don't believe any of the hype the flying schools salespeople feed you. Of course they will recommend their best graduates if airlines come calling but they're not going to pester them in times like these. That's up to us!
Pay attention to facts published by the airlines or reputable sources like Flight Intl. etc. They will have the most believeable forecast figures, although don't forget the nature of this industry. The fact that airlines are hopelessly negative about hiring one day, and then desperately need a bunch of pilots tomorrow makes short-term forecasting difficult. Long term forecasting is always positive anyway, so what's the point?
To be honest, at your age desk-pilot you've got to check your bank balances, set your priorities and make a command decision NOW! Stop dithering. It is a huge risk, but so is not making a decision. Don't forget that with the amounts of money we're talking about you could easily hold on to a secure non-aviation career and just fly for fun. With 25k you could buy a half-decent plane, put a modest down-payment on a house, and fly on the cheap. Then you could rent the plane out to us wannabee suckers and make cash...
Then your one-plane operation will grow until all of a sudden you're leasing a 737-200 and interviewing some of us for a job and...okay, a little over the top. But I've made a point, I think.
abracadabra
Don't believe any of the hype the flying schools salespeople feed you. Of course they will recommend their best graduates if airlines come calling but they're not going to pester them in times like these. That's up to us!
Pay attention to facts published by the airlines or reputable sources like Flight Intl. etc. They will have the most believeable forecast figures, although don't forget the nature of this industry. The fact that airlines are hopelessly negative about hiring one day, and then desperately need a bunch of pilots tomorrow makes short-term forecasting difficult. Long term forecasting is always positive anyway, so what's the point?
To be honest, at your age desk-pilot you've got to check your bank balances, set your priorities and make a command decision NOW! Stop dithering. It is a huge risk, but so is not making a decision. Don't forget that with the amounts of money we're talking about you could easily hold on to a secure non-aviation career and just fly for fun. With 25k you could buy a half-decent plane, put a modest down-payment on a house, and fly on the cheap. Then you could rent the plane out to us wannabee suckers and make cash...
Then your one-plane operation will grow until all of a sudden you're leasing a 737-200 and interviewing some of us for a job and...okay, a little over the top. But I've made a point, I think.
abracadabra
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I'm in a similar position, 34 yrs old, looking to be fully trained in 3-4 yrs. My plan is to do the slow time modular route, utilising bulk flying opportunities in the states, with some uk flying to stay current. This, along with the ATPL exams, will leave you fairly close to completion, without spending the really serious dosh and doesn't have to be full time. I'm thinking £10k will get me to 120 hrs (incl ppl night/imc and maybe ME) and exams complete, with just £15k (a new ford focus) or so left to spend IF the job market is looking rosey. If not, then keep plugging away at my current job, but with some valuable qualifications behind me.
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Training
Your replies make interesting reading, if a little depressing. To be honest my position is slightly odd in that I walked out of a well paid IT job a few months ago with severence.
I spent ages debating whether to take a career break or actually leave but in the end decided to leave. Hindsight being what it is that decision may now look rather questionable but was based on a feeling that some airlines seem to favoured integrated courses. My advancing years were also a factor in that decision and if I was 22 I would definately have bided my time!
Having burned a significant hole in my severence cheque since leaving my options are now essentially:
Commence full time training
Continue to develop an existing income stream from freelance writing for magazines which will never pay all that well but might reach the level where I'm not dipping into my severence. I could then try and do part time modular or just wait before doing an ab-initio course.
Get IT Contracts (not easy in the current climate)
Abandon all hope of being a pilot and go and get another office job for the next 25 years and wait for a gold watch!
I've known I wanted to fly for an airline since I was 4 years old. My Father was Cabin Crew and when I was seven he was involved in a serious air incident over the Pyrenees. The press covered the story and he was photographed in his uniform with guess who on his knee clutching a model aeroplane and claiming he wanted to be a pilot.
27 bloody years later and I still can't shake that passion.
Desk-pilot
I spent ages debating whether to take a career break or actually leave but in the end decided to leave. Hindsight being what it is that decision may now look rather questionable but was based on a feeling that some airlines seem to favoured integrated courses. My advancing years were also a factor in that decision and if I was 22 I would definately have bided my time!
Having burned a significant hole in my severence cheque since leaving my options are now essentially:
Commence full time training
Continue to develop an existing income stream from freelance writing for magazines which will never pay all that well but might reach the level where I'm not dipping into my severence. I could then try and do part time modular or just wait before doing an ab-initio course.
Get IT Contracts (not easy in the current climate)
Abandon all hope of being a pilot and go and get another office job for the next 25 years and wait for a gold watch!
I've known I wanted to fly for an airline since I was 4 years old. My Father was Cabin Crew and when I was seven he was involved in a serious air incident over the Pyrenees. The press covered the story and he was photographed in his uniform with guess who on his knee clutching a model aeroplane and claiming he wanted to be a pilot.
27 bloody years later and I still can't shake that passion.
Desk-pilot
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Flypuppy, as always talking complete sense..
Desk-Pilot - Flypuppy is 100% spot on, take note of everything he's said, hang on to the passion because you will need this to get you through your exams and CPL/IR training but remain on planet earth...
Of the 10 lads on my ground school that did our exams in 2001/2 and those of them that went on to complete the IR, - none of us are working as flight crew...
And we are just the tip of the iceburg, there are many more of us around the UK waiting for signs of an upturn to complete IR's etc etc...
Personally, I wouldn't entertain any form of Pro Pilot training and all its expense until at least next year and then re-assess what the industry is up to before jumping...
Desk-Pilot - Flypuppy is 100% spot on, take note of everything he's said, hang on to the passion because you will need this to get you through your exams and CPL/IR training but remain on planet earth...
Of the 10 lads on my ground school that did our exams in 2001/2 and those of them that went on to complete the IR, - none of us are working as flight crew...
And we are just the tip of the iceburg, there are many more of us around the UK waiting for signs of an upturn to complete IR's etc etc...
Personally, I wouldn't entertain any form of Pro Pilot training and all its expense until at least next year and then re-assess what the industry is up to before jumping...
I say there boy
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This whole game is a marathon, not a sprint. It's also a game where timing is the essence.
The right course of action at the moment for those settled in non-aviation jobs is to wait and see, while saving money as hard as possible, then when things start to improve you'll be best positioned to take advantage of them.
Do not give up a full time job to train in the current environment. At least let the dust settle on Gulf War II first.
cheers!
foggy.
The right course of action at the moment for those settled in non-aviation jobs is to wait and see, while saving money as hard as possible, then when things start to improve you'll be best positioned to take advantage of them.
Do not give up a full time job to train in the current environment. At least let the dust settle on Gulf War II first.
cheers!
foggy.
Why do it if it's not fun?
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Agree totally with foggy's last statement - do not give up the day-job. However, if you've got the finances, that shouldn't stop you from starting your training now.
Obviously there is a risk - but there will always be a risk whenever you start training. As long as you budget for the worst-case scenario you'll be ok.
Good luck!
FFF
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Obviously there is a risk - but there will always be a risk whenever you start training. As long as you budget for the worst-case scenario you'll be ok.
Good luck!
FFF
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Flypuppy -
By quoting the aforementioned MD, I was merely trying to present fresh material to the debate ie the viewpoint of the flying schools. Of course, they are always going to be more optimistic than anyone else with regard to pilot demand forecasts.
Personally, I take a very similar outlook to you on this issue.
By quoting the aforementioned MD, I was merely trying to present fresh material to the debate ie the viewpoint of the flying schools. Of course, they are always going to be more optimistic than anyone else with regard to pilot demand forecasts.
Personally, I take a very similar outlook to you on this issue.
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Desk Pilot
I hope to start modular later this year. Spend a year doing ATPL exams and hour building. Then onto the flight training itself. By the time the exams are out the way I will have a better idea of the market and how quick (or slow) to complete the flight training. All the time I intend to keep my current job to keep me going, even though it is boring it pays the bills.
Its a tough one but I would regret not doing it, whatever happens in the future job market.
Why not get that PPL first and see how things go.
Great thing about this site is the advice from those who have been there.
I hope to start modular later this year. Spend a year doing ATPL exams and hour building. Then onto the flight training itself. By the time the exams are out the way I will have a better idea of the market and how quick (or slow) to complete the flight training. All the time I intend to keep my current job to keep me going, even though it is boring it pays the bills.
Its a tough one but I would regret not doing it, whatever happens in the future job market.
Why not get that PPL first and see how things go.
Great thing about this site is the advice from those who have been there.
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Let's run this - more than slightly improbable - theory past you all. A mate of yours is a hard-working IT specialist of, say, 30 years old, earning a solid £35K annually. He's a car enthusiast, but he's got wife, kids and mortgage, so his Mondeo is going to have to crack on for a few more years yet. But a Jaguar dealer has persuaded him that the value of Jaguar XKRs is on the rise and that, if he forks out the £63,000 cost of the Jag now, he'll have no problem getting his money back in a few years' time. Honest, guv. Not only that, but the increase in value is so great that he could afford to leave his IT job so that he could enjoy the car 24/7, while living on his savings, or remortgaging the house! Yet, all around him are car adverts suggesting that s/h values of Jag XKRs are, at best, plummetting. And he still wants to go out and buy that car!
What advice do you give him? Bit of a no-brainer, don't you think?
Take no notice of FTO salesmen! They are trying to keep the cash flow going, nothing more. The brief resurgence of recruiting we saw over the past few months is most definitely on hold until the Iraq situation is clearer. The entire business world is clamping down on any unnecessary expense; that has magnified effects on the airline industry. If it gets no worse than it is now, it will take a year or so to recover the market levels we were enjoying last August - and remember that those levels were 20% down on the year before! It is likely that the current slowdown will even affect the low-cost sector, which (in the UK at least) is now quite mature and more subject to the variations of the overall market.
If we go to war with no UN resolution, expect the economic fallout to be huge as the bunfighting and scapegoating between the different factions begins; trade wars between the US and its naysayers are not out of the question. Aviation will be caught in the middle of this, and the results may not be pretty! In these circumstances. the US is far less likely than it is now to let any of its own, inefficient, carriers go down and may well subsidise the likes of United, American etc, to the detriment of all other carriers into the US. Any reduction in trade between the US and Europe would have a depressing effect on all commerce within the EU. You could go on...... This is, perhaps, a bit of a doomsday scenario, but it serves to illustrate the point that the industry is on a bit of a knife edge at the moment, and it wouldn't take much to make things a lot worse.
In these circumstances, I think you would be wise to wait a while before you commit to anything! Listen to Flypuppy's advice...
Scroggs
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What advice do you give him? Bit of a no-brainer, don't you think?
Take no notice of FTO salesmen! They are trying to keep the cash flow going, nothing more. The brief resurgence of recruiting we saw over the past few months is most definitely on hold until the Iraq situation is clearer. The entire business world is clamping down on any unnecessary expense; that has magnified effects on the airline industry. If it gets no worse than it is now, it will take a year or so to recover the market levels we were enjoying last August - and remember that those levels were 20% down on the year before! It is likely that the current slowdown will even affect the low-cost sector, which (in the UK at least) is now quite mature and more subject to the variations of the overall market.
If we go to war with no UN resolution, expect the economic fallout to be huge as the bunfighting and scapegoating between the different factions begins; trade wars between the US and its naysayers are not out of the question. Aviation will be caught in the middle of this, and the results may not be pretty! In these circumstances. the US is far less likely than it is now to let any of its own, inefficient, carriers go down and may well subsidise the likes of United, American etc, to the detriment of all other carriers into the US. Any reduction in trade between the US and Europe would have a depressing effect on all commerce within the EU. You could go on...... This is, perhaps, a bit of a doomsday scenario, but it serves to illustrate the point that the industry is on a bit of a knife edge at the moment, and it wouldn't take much to make things a lot worse.
In these circumstances, I think you would be wise to wait a while before you commit to anything! Listen to Flypuppy's advice...
Scroggs
Wannabes/Virgin Moderator
[email protected]
Well its all been said really. After Sept11th I advised waiting at least a year or so for the dust to settle. I hoped that 18 months on recovery would come with a recovering world economy and a structural growth in LCAs.
It is unfortunate that after the Sept11th effect worked its way through there came along Gulf War2. I now doubt that there will be significant hiring for another 18 months. The world economy simply is not going to pick up for at least that time frame. Structural growth in the form of LCA's is now going to primarily occur on the Continent. Which has a wealth of pilots looking for work e.g. easyJet opens a 7 aircraft base at Paris Orly where 400 Air Lib pilots were recently made redundant - guess where the pilots will come from.
In addition. History suggests that in the current market condition there is a reasonable chance of an existing major airline in the UK going bust.
Meanwhile the schools have been pretty much as full as they were in the golden years of 1998, 1999, 2000. Churning out something like 800 freshly minted CPL IR holders with low time a year. This stagnant pool of labour must now stand at about 1,500 deep.
Many will never earn their livings as pilots. Indeed I know a great many who have simply written off the massive expenditure and pursued other careers. Often with a sense of relief to leave the whole bloody struggle behind them. A sense of wasted money, wasted effort and pubic failure proving a bitter legacy of following their dream.
I *do* know of people who have trained in the face of Sept11th and have got Boeing and Airbus jobs. It gave me immense pleasure to hear this week in Alicante the voice of a student I knew in Jerez calling for taxi clearance in his Boeing.
Its tempting to latch onto these success stories. Eveyone seems to know someone who knew someone who just got a great job. That piece of gossip naturally gets churned around endlessly. What people tend not to gossip about is all the people they know about who didn't get an interview last week.
Against this backdrop I cannot advise entering training right now.
A PPL and some hour building plus enrolling on a distance learning ATPL course might be reasonable. I would not leave employment to do any of this.
Even if things pick up nicely in 18 months time. Its going to take 3 years just to drain the pool that already exists through recruitment and people leaving for pastures new. I guess this leads me to believe that it will be in the order of 5 years before things turn sunny in the airline recruitment market.
Which puts us at about 1990 in the context of the last airline recession.
Comparions with "last time" are always fraught. It is my recollection that people who entered training in 1995 and graduated in 1996 managed to enter the market at the start of the upswing. 1996 and 1997 saw a lot of movement in the market. People were suddenly getting jobs. As a result people flooded into the schools and by 1998 and 1999 the schools were churning out students at a heck of a rate but lots were still getting hired albeit with lots of competition.
The good time continued to roll into 2000 and 2001.
This time of course there are differing factors in play. Not least the fact of the JAA and the free movement of pilot labour between EU countries.
Combine new uncertainties with the variables of personal circumstances and there is no right advice or right decision to make. Its essentially a gamble in which luck plays no small part.
Good luck,
WWW
It is unfortunate that after the Sept11th effect worked its way through there came along Gulf War2. I now doubt that there will be significant hiring for another 18 months. The world economy simply is not going to pick up for at least that time frame. Structural growth in the form of LCA's is now going to primarily occur on the Continent. Which has a wealth of pilots looking for work e.g. easyJet opens a 7 aircraft base at Paris Orly where 400 Air Lib pilots were recently made redundant - guess where the pilots will come from.
In addition. History suggests that in the current market condition there is a reasonable chance of an existing major airline in the UK going bust.
Meanwhile the schools have been pretty much as full as they were in the golden years of 1998, 1999, 2000. Churning out something like 800 freshly minted CPL IR holders with low time a year. This stagnant pool of labour must now stand at about 1,500 deep.
Many will never earn their livings as pilots. Indeed I know a great many who have simply written off the massive expenditure and pursued other careers. Often with a sense of relief to leave the whole bloody struggle behind them. A sense of wasted money, wasted effort and pubic failure proving a bitter legacy of following their dream.
I *do* know of people who have trained in the face of Sept11th and have got Boeing and Airbus jobs. It gave me immense pleasure to hear this week in Alicante the voice of a student I knew in Jerez calling for taxi clearance in his Boeing.
Its tempting to latch onto these success stories. Eveyone seems to know someone who knew someone who just got a great job. That piece of gossip naturally gets churned around endlessly. What people tend not to gossip about is all the people they know about who didn't get an interview last week.
Against this backdrop I cannot advise entering training right now.
A PPL and some hour building plus enrolling on a distance learning ATPL course might be reasonable. I would not leave employment to do any of this.
Even if things pick up nicely in 18 months time. Its going to take 3 years just to drain the pool that already exists through recruitment and people leaving for pastures new. I guess this leads me to believe that it will be in the order of 5 years before things turn sunny in the airline recruitment market.
Which puts us at about 1990 in the context of the last airline recession.
Comparions with "last time" are always fraught. It is my recollection that people who entered training in 1995 and graduated in 1996 managed to enter the market at the start of the upswing. 1996 and 1997 saw a lot of movement in the market. People were suddenly getting jobs. As a result people flooded into the schools and by 1998 and 1999 the schools were churning out students at a heck of a rate but lots were still getting hired albeit with lots of competition.
The good time continued to roll into 2000 and 2001.
This time of course there are differing factors in play. Not least the fact of the JAA and the free movement of pilot labour between EU countries.
Combine new uncertainties with the variables of personal circumstances and there is no right advice or right decision to make. Its essentially a gamble in which luck plays no small part.
Good luck,
WWW
Why do it if it's not fun?
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Scroggs,
Can I take your argument a stage further?
A mate of yours is a hard-working IT specialist of, say, 30 years old, earning a solid £35K annually. He's a car enthusiast, but he's got wife, kids and mortgage, so his Mondeo is going to have to crack on for a few more years yet. But a Ferrari dealer has a beautiful 355 for sale, for £63,000. The value of the car may go up or it may not, but your friend has desperately wanted one since he was 4. He tells the dealer he can't afford it, but walks past the window of the showroom every day. Then he gets a bonus, and a small pay-rise - not enough to buy the car, but enough to approach the bank and discuss loans. His IT job is safe, so the bank are happy to loan him the money. What do you tell him to do?
It would surely depend on the attitude your friend has. If he is totally convinced that he will buy the car, refurbish the interior, and sell it 2 years later for £100,000, then he is just as foolish as the "friend" in your example who is buying the brand new car he can't afford. But what if he's going to be happy to drive his Ferrari around and enjoy it? He knows that he might be able to sell it on and make a profit after putting a few years hard work in, and if he can do that, it'll be a bonus. But if the market doesn't pick up it doesn't matter, because his IT job is paying enough money to pay off the bank loan, pay the mortgage and feed the wife and kids every month.
For many of us, especially those stuck in boring 9-5 jobs, this is a far more accurate metaphor.
FFF
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Can I take your argument a stage further?
A mate of yours is a hard-working IT specialist of, say, 30 years old, earning a solid £35K annually. He's a car enthusiast, but he's got wife, kids and mortgage, so his Mondeo is going to have to crack on for a few more years yet. But a Ferrari dealer has a beautiful 355 for sale, for £63,000. The value of the car may go up or it may not, but your friend has desperately wanted one since he was 4. He tells the dealer he can't afford it, but walks past the window of the showroom every day. Then he gets a bonus, and a small pay-rise - not enough to buy the car, but enough to approach the bank and discuss loans. His IT job is safe, so the bank are happy to loan him the money. What do you tell him to do?
It would surely depend on the attitude your friend has. If he is totally convinced that he will buy the car, refurbish the interior, and sell it 2 years later for £100,000, then he is just as foolish as the "friend" in your example who is buying the brand new car he can't afford. But what if he's going to be happy to drive his Ferrari around and enjoy it? He knows that he might be able to sell it on and make a profit after putting a few years hard work in, and if he can do that, it'll be a bonus. But if the market doesn't pick up it doesn't matter, because his IT job is paying enough money to pay off the bank loan, pay the mortgage and feed the wife and kids every month.
For many of us, especially those stuck in boring 9-5 jobs, this is a far more accurate metaphor.
FFF
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