Realistic job prospects
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Bridgestone has hit the nail on the head:
• Aviation will be the last and slowest sector to recover
•There is literally zero joined-up thinking internationally on this, border closures are an easy first-line of defence.
•Covid is not going away any time soon, if ever.
•The longer aviation is excluded from the economy, the better other parts get at adapting to a non-aviation world (e.g. using remote working tools such as Zoom). These practices are now embedded so there will be only a limited return to the “old ways” of flying.
•Once you’ve invested all that time and money into this career you don’t just leave it to work in Tescos on minimum wage, so any fantasies of experienced pilots leaving the profession are wrong.
•There is no retirement wave in Europe, it is a young pilot population.
•Aviation is still carbon-intense and will struggle to grow post-Covid due to government policies and reducing consumer demand.
All the drivers of creating jobs for pilots are absent. Apart from the “deal” where you spend £30k on 6 circuits in a 737-800 and an instagram photo with no actual job after, there are likely to be almost no jobs whatsoever.
Learn to be patient. Luck and timing are a large part of getting a job in this industry, and the timing right now could not be worse.
• Aviation will be the last and slowest sector to recover
•There is literally zero joined-up thinking internationally on this, border closures are an easy first-line of defence.
•Covid is not going away any time soon, if ever.
•The longer aviation is excluded from the economy, the better other parts get at adapting to a non-aviation world (e.g. using remote working tools such as Zoom). These practices are now embedded so there will be only a limited return to the “old ways” of flying.
•Once you’ve invested all that time and money into this career you don’t just leave it to work in Tescos on minimum wage, so any fantasies of experienced pilots leaving the profession are wrong.
•There is no retirement wave in Europe, it is a young pilot population.
•Aviation is still carbon-intense and will struggle to grow post-Covid due to government policies and reducing consumer demand.
All the drivers of creating jobs for pilots are absent. Apart from the “deal” where you spend £30k on 6 circuits in a 737-800 and an instagram photo with no actual job after, there are likely to be almost no jobs whatsoever.
Learn to be patient. Luck and timing are a large part of getting a job in this industry, and the timing right now could not be worse.
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It’s hellish out there at the moment. Most of us are waiting tentatively for flying to start up again. Skill fade is a real worry. Some guys I know haven’t touched the controls for almost two years. I expect no realistic prospect of any recovery until next year. It will be very competitive when recruitment restarts. Lots of experienced pilots are currently out of work, most don’t know any other line of work, they will be your competition.
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Modular
Nathan Mcdonald
I am on the modular route , i advice against any sort of integrated training. My advice either go to uni or learn a trade back up career is important, people need to learn to have patience limit risk train with zero debt. Once training is over most likely will have a long wait for job gotta keep ratings valid. Dont be on of those pilots paying £800+ a month in debts with no pilot job. Chase your dream but do it sensibly.
I am on the modular route , i advice against any sort of integrated training. My advice either go to uni or learn a trade back up career is important, people need to learn to have patience limit risk train with zero debt. Once training is over most likely will have a long wait for job gotta keep ratings valid. Dont be on of those pilots paying £800+ a month in debts with no pilot job. Chase your dream but do it sensibly.
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Do we know where we can see real data of the pilot age groupe in Europe/UK ?
I mean real data, from autority or something
I found data from UK CAA
https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analy...y-age-and-sex/
And so in 2018, the +55 years old were 21% of all Atpl holder, and the 60+ were 13% of all Atpl.
Knowing that average of retirement of pilot if 60/62 years old so to say that EU pilot age is young it is wrong (if we consider that all EU is same as UK, it is why I d like to see data from other countries)
I believe around 10%+ are going to stop in EU due to COVID/age/... Between now and 2023, so once traffic back to 90% we will see ...
I mean real data, from autority or something
I found data from UK CAA
https://www.caa.co.uk/Data-and-analy...y-age-and-sex/
And so in 2018, the +55 years old were 21% of all Atpl holder, and the 60+ were 13% of all Atpl.
Knowing that average of retirement of pilot if 60/62 years old so to say that EU pilot age is young it is wrong (if we consider that all EU is same as UK, it is why I d like to see data from other countries)
I believe around 10%+ are going to stop in EU due to COVID/age/... Between now and 2023, so once traffic back to 90% we will see ...
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Permanently losing about 10% of the pilot workforce within the next 2-3 years is a realistic prospect for Europe. First, due to the aforementioned aging statistics. Remember that RYR and EZY are not representative of the big picture. The fact that most pilots there are young doesn't mean that it's the absolute same everywhere else. Second, it's an overestimation to say that every single younger-age pilot will go back to flying. A few percent of the redundant lot simply don't want to put their lives on hold for a couple of years and stack shelves or drive delivery vans until aviation recovers. Instead, they spend their time studying programming or whatever other meaningful stuff they can think of or building their own businesses and end up laying the foundations of a career which is no worse than flying in terms of remuneration and prospects. Obviously, the more established their new career or business becomes, the less willing they are to just dump it and recommence flying.
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I’m not sure that younger experienced pilots choosing to leave the industry is all that unrealistic. With 15 years in the sector and 12 at the controls the Pandemic led to me changing direction. Indeed I know of several close friends for whom the same is true. All good pilots, all with more than a decade of experience on various types with 6000+ hours in the logbooks.
Cracks in the boom were already appearing prior to Covid with as many operators hinting at redundancy as those that were recruiting, this had seemed to lead to, at best a stagnation of terms, and in some places a reduction.
My outfit (a fairly major operator) was laying off prior to Covid and the constant fear is extremely hard to live with for some people.
Those things combined led to making the job an easy one to walk away from for many like myself during the crisis we find ourselves in.
Ultimately that may bode well for freshly minted CPL holders as experienced competition moves on out of choice or necessity, but like so much at the moment it is all speculative. I wouldn’t be putting my 100k in the hands of an ATO in a hurry but then, I know what it buys you already.
Flying an aircraft is one of the most rewarding things I have ever done for a living. Good money, good time off, good colleagues to work with.
Simultaneously however, working for an airline is one of the most confounding and annoying things I have ever done. Sleepless nights, missed family events, loneliness on slip, generally poor quality of (and numerous amounts of) middle management, varying quality of senior management, frustrating strategic focus leaving the front line staff paying for the mistakes of the execs. It all adds up.
The industry I now find myself in has some similar issues, however it lacks some of the worst trends that have permeated aviation in my relatively short career.
I wish all luck but also caution against chasing a dream that may not exist anymore in the form you expect.
The next few years will be a talent acquisition manager’s dream. Even if there are jobs, there will be thousands of people chasing them, and the CFO’s will see opportunity in that.
Cracks in the boom were already appearing prior to Covid with as many operators hinting at redundancy as those that were recruiting, this had seemed to lead to, at best a stagnation of terms, and in some places a reduction.
My outfit (a fairly major operator) was laying off prior to Covid and the constant fear is extremely hard to live with for some people.
Those things combined led to making the job an easy one to walk away from for many like myself during the crisis we find ourselves in.
Ultimately that may bode well for freshly minted CPL holders as experienced competition moves on out of choice or necessity, but like so much at the moment it is all speculative. I wouldn’t be putting my 100k in the hands of an ATO in a hurry but then, I know what it buys you already.
Flying an aircraft is one of the most rewarding things I have ever done for a living. Good money, good time off, good colleagues to work with.
Simultaneously however, working for an airline is one of the most confounding and annoying things I have ever done. Sleepless nights, missed family events, loneliness on slip, generally poor quality of (and numerous amounts of) middle management, varying quality of senior management, frustrating strategic focus leaving the front line staff paying for the mistakes of the execs. It all adds up.
The industry I now find myself in has some similar issues, however it lacks some of the worst trends that have permeated aviation in my relatively short career.
I wish all luck but also caution against chasing a dream that may not exist anymore in the form you expect.
The next few years will be a talent acquisition manager’s dream. Even if there are jobs, there will be thousands of people chasing them, and the CFO’s will see opportunity in that.
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Matt101
Beautifully put.
Surely the devastation that Covid has wrecked on the lives of airline pilots is enough to put people off this career? If I had the choice today knowing how precarious this industry is to events such as pandemics I would have stopped at the PPL stage of training and only flown for fun.
Whilst flying itself is fun and the time off is good, the stress of such only having such a niche skill in a snakes-and-ladders industry really takes the enjoyment out of it.
In a previous career I was respected by management and seen an as asset, with a name. In flying you are treated purely as a number, as an annoyingly expensive necessity to get the aircraft from A to B without killing all the customers. It really sucks to know that you are so easily replaceable and unimportant.
If I could slide into another career with the same pay as flying I would do it, and fly a 172 for fun. When I was an aero-sexual wanabee I could not even fathom the thought of those words coming out of my mouth, that’s how different the perception is to reality.
Buyer beware.
Beautifully put.
Surely the devastation that Covid has wrecked on the lives of airline pilots is enough to put people off this career? If I had the choice today knowing how precarious this industry is to events such as pandemics I would have stopped at the PPL stage of training and only flown for fun.
Whilst flying itself is fun and the time off is good, the stress of such only having such a niche skill in a snakes-and-ladders industry really takes the enjoyment out of it.
In a previous career I was respected by management and seen an as asset, with a name. In flying you are treated purely as a number, as an annoyingly expensive necessity to get the aircraft from A to B without killing all the customers. It really sucks to know that you are so easily replaceable and unimportant.
If I could slide into another career with the same pay as flying I would do it, and fly a 172 for fun. When I was an aero-sexual wanabee I could not even fathom the thought of those words coming out of my mouth, that’s how different the perception is to reality.
Buyer beware.
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The thought that anyone is willing to lay £100 K plus at the moment to pursue a career in aviation is astounding and the ATOs should be laying out the pitfalls before allowing anyone to sign on the dotted line.
There are hundreds if not thousands of U.K. pilots currently not flying and there are many thousands more waiting for the axe come in September when furlough comes to an end, as others have said it’s going to get very nasty and there will (if the government don’t do anything about it) be more airlines failing, airports closing and airlines shrinking. Even post COVID the green lobby will campaign for a smaller aviation industry and their voice is getting louder by the day, add to this the push away from two pilot operations in the cruise and potentially single pilot operations in the future (utter insanity but the dollar is king)I just don’t see the mythical pilot shortage every happening.
I have been flying for nearly 30 years, first in the military, then turboprops and have been at a flag carrier for the last 7 or so years, have I enjoyed it? Absolutely, would I recommend it to my kids? Probably not, certainly not the civil side and certainly not at the price being quoted.
I think a lot of people believe flying will be a little work followed by days lying on the beach drinking and chatting to Cabincrew before flying back for a few hours, those jobs do exist but only for a small minority, what they don’t envisage is the night freight at EMA, the howling gales at LSI, the fourth 4 sector day starting at 0500, the 4 1/2 hour flight to TFS or LCA followed by cleaning the cabin and flying straight back ( which raises the age old question “where did you go today?” Followed by “somewhere lovely but I didn’t leave the airport….”) the min rest down route if you are lucky enough to actually get to see the city, the minimum turnarounds, the constant push from management to save money and ultimately the selling of your soul to some disrespectful company just to fly.
Would I leave aviation if I has any other skill sets? Yes especially after the last 16 months - unfortunately I don’t think I will have a lot of choice come September and like thousands of others I will be given no choice.
As others have said be very careful and don’t throw away that hard earned cash chasing a dream that probably no longer exists.
There are hundreds if not thousands of U.K. pilots currently not flying and there are many thousands more waiting for the axe come in September when furlough comes to an end, as others have said it’s going to get very nasty and there will (if the government don’t do anything about it) be more airlines failing, airports closing and airlines shrinking. Even post COVID the green lobby will campaign for a smaller aviation industry and their voice is getting louder by the day, add to this the push away from two pilot operations in the cruise and potentially single pilot operations in the future (utter insanity but the dollar is king)I just don’t see the mythical pilot shortage every happening.
I have been flying for nearly 30 years, first in the military, then turboprops and have been at a flag carrier for the last 7 or so years, have I enjoyed it? Absolutely, would I recommend it to my kids? Probably not, certainly not the civil side and certainly not at the price being quoted.
I think a lot of people believe flying will be a little work followed by days lying on the beach drinking and chatting to Cabincrew before flying back for a few hours, those jobs do exist but only for a small minority, what they don’t envisage is the night freight at EMA, the howling gales at LSI, the fourth 4 sector day starting at 0500, the 4 1/2 hour flight to TFS or LCA followed by cleaning the cabin and flying straight back ( which raises the age old question “where did you go today?” Followed by “somewhere lovely but I didn’t leave the airport….”) the min rest down route if you are lucky enough to actually get to see the city, the minimum turnarounds, the constant push from management to save money and ultimately the selling of your soul to some disrespectful company just to fly.
Would I leave aviation if I has any other skill sets? Yes especially after the last 16 months - unfortunately I don’t think I will have a lot of choice come September and like thousands of others I will be given no choice.
As others have said be very careful and don’t throw away that hard earned cash chasing a dream that probably no longer exists.
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Delta hotel,
Not at all, it may be to some but I never objected to it, my point was that the ATOs are selling an unrealistic view of aviation, they don’t paint an accurate picture of what jobs are available even when the times are good.
Not at all, it may be to some but I never objected to it, my point was that the ATOs are selling an unrealistic view of aviation, they don’t paint an accurate picture of what jobs are available even when the times are good.
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Icanseeclearly
There is more money in the economy now than ever. A lot of this is waiting to be spend on travel, only government restrictions are are holding this back. US now has crew shortages and large orders for new aircraft. Airlines like southwest are paying double overtime.
The same will happen in UK and Europe. Furlough can and probably will be extended again if there is any risk of unemployment.
Most pilots are not flying but still employed. It's not entirely because of furlough. Airlines know that the first back into the game will be big winners. They don't know when, so they need to keep ready. That's what cash reserves are for. Even Norwegian is planning a comeback, and there are quite a few planned Startups.
Many early retirements means there are much less ready pilots than before. And the shortage was apparent then.
People want to travel. The internet can't replace or substitute that.
There is more money in the economy now than ever. A lot of this is waiting to be spend on travel, only government restrictions are are holding this back. US now has crew shortages and large orders for new aircraft. Airlines like southwest are paying double overtime.
The same will happen in UK and Europe. Furlough can and probably will be extended again if there is any risk of unemployment.
Most pilots are not flying but still employed. It's not entirely because of furlough. Airlines know that the first back into the game will be big winners. They don't know when, so they need to keep ready. That's what cash reserves are for. Even Norwegian is planning a comeback, and there are quite a few planned Startups.
Many early retirements means there are much less ready pilots than before. And the shortage was apparent then.
People want to travel. The internet can't replace or substitute that.
Educated Hillbilly
The US market is a very different to the European market, a Short haul domestic sector that is as large if not larger than the European short haul sector, plus the fact the FAA 1500 hour rule creates an artificial shortage, the FAA could alleviate the shortage to some extent by relaxing that hour requirement.
2017 to 2019 recruitment levels were high but I would still say it was not what I would call an acute shortage. There are still sizeable numbers coming out of the training schools, so I can't see a peak recruitment boom as of 17 to 19 happening for quite some time. Plus the marketing departments of nearly all the schools seem to be pushing hard at the moment for intake. Where I do see the demand at the moment is for Instructors in the Middle East and Asia as those countries try to develop a domestic source of pilots.
2017 to 2019 recruitment levels were high but I would still say it was not what I would call an acute shortage. There are still sizeable numbers coming out of the training schools, so I can't see a peak recruitment boom as of 17 to 19 happening for quite some time. Plus the marketing departments of nearly all the schools seem to be pushing hard at the moment for intake. Where I do see the demand at the moment is for Instructors in the Middle East and Asia as those countries try to develop a domestic source of pilots.