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Pilot shortage 2021

Old 10th Nov 2020, 20:23
  #21 (permalink)  
 
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Wholeheartedly agreed, fastidious bob. Right now, a life largely devoid of mobility and face-to-face contact isn't a matter of choice for most people. It's a rather unpleasant matter of necessity. But would all those people still think the same if COVID was no longer a factor? Mostly not, I think. Working from home, spending holidays at home and communicating with friends and family virtually from home quickly gets miserable AF. It's not a life anyone, apart from the most reclusive introvert, would wish on themselves.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 20:25
  #22 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dns View Post
I'm really curious as to the percentage of currently redundant pilots who will be actively seeking to get back into the industry in a couple of years...​​​

Good question. And further, what awaits those who haven't flown at all in a couple of years ? Will so many experienced pilots have gone non-current that airlines will be forced to deal with getting people current again or is non-currency going to be a fatal blow ?

Answers almost impossible to know.

Last edited by bafanguy; 10th Nov 2020 at 20:38.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 21:23
  #23 (permalink)  
dns
 
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I'm seriously hoping, for everyone's sake that this "work from home" thing is a very short lived!

It may be fine for people who are already established in their work places and have a family, but it's absolutely catestrophic for people living alone or who are new to a job! Those random chats in the office kitchen or over a quick beer after work are vital to making relationships that can be depended upon when things go wrong.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 21:45
  #24 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DontBeStupid View Post
and for those a bit older with families etc, they prefer it.
My office working friends with families hate it. They are often locked in their hobby room that is now an office wearing a neatly pressed withe shirt, a stylish tie, adidas sweatpants and sleepers.
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Old 10th Nov 2020, 21:48
  #25 (permalink)  
 
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dns, further to the social and the learning elements (which are both very real - teaching a novice how to do a real-life job only by Zoom and shared screen is a lot harder than in person) there's also one more thing. Any task requiring collaboration, collective brainstorming and creativity is seriously impeded by the virtual environment. And that's not just my own observation. Many people, in aviation and otherwise, share that those "Eureka!" moments when a great new solution is born are a lot harder to come across in home office mode.

Going forward, I think that the optimal solution would be to cap remote working vacancies to a certain percentage (not more than 30%, I think) and assign them with priority to those who have a specific, substantial reason to work from home (and are willing to do so, of course). Team members in poor health, pregnant women, parents taking care of small kids, people giving care to ill family members should be assigned a remote working vacancy with priority over those who do not face any such special circumstances. That sounds like an optimal way to keep productivity high, office-dependent local businesses running and people happy.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 01:14
  #26 (permalink)  
 
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You all seem to be mixing up two different things: the phenomenon of people (who live close to their office anyway) being forced to work from their basement/attic/hobbyroom vs. the vastly reduced demand international travel for business purposes.

Once this has all (hopefully) blown over, some elements of the working from home fad will stick as people like to have a choice. However, I agree with you lot that it is is essential that people are physically together for all the reasons you have mentioned. (starting up new colleagues, the famous coffee machine chats, the human need of feeling part of a group/team, etc, etc). Unfortunately, everybody returning to their office desks has zero impact on air travel, as those people will get back into their cars, busses, MRT's or whatever transport mode they were used to in the morning pre-COVID.

As for international air travel for business purposes; sorry to burst your bubble, but this has changed permanently. I work in an environment where I negotiate infrastructure contracts in the energy industry (I sell powerplants). Pre-COVID, everybody in my company, as well as our clients/suppliers, including all of the involved law firms agreed we had to meet face to face. And so we did; frequently and on high yield tickets (the seats close to the pointy end where you sit, you know - the ones that make the money for the airline), jetting between continents at least a couple of times a month. We all had the shiny frequent flyer cards to prove it. However, despite COVID, we had to keep stuff moving remotely and honestly - it works. It's like somebody switched the lights on and we can see we were doing it wrong all along. We have a laugh about it, and joke how much extra quality time at home and good night rests we have gained, and virtually everybody agrees this is a better lifestyle. We still have to travel to meet new clients every once in a while, but even that is rapidly diminishing as conferences and other events go virtual at a fraction of the original cost.

Sure, leisure travel will come back (I can't wait!), but business? A fraction of what it used to be... And even if we wanted to get back to our previous way of doing things, the travel budgets for 2021 and 2022 have -unfortunately for you guys- been slashed by management (rightfully so), and they are not coming back.

Aviation will have it's place; but I encourage everyone to get realistic about a full recovery.

Last edited by FMS82; 11th Nov 2020 at 01:18. Reason: spelling
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 02:51
  #27 (permalink)  
 
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True

FMS82 - Spot on.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 04:10
  #28 (permalink)  
 
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That’s why Zooms share price tanked nearly 20% the second a vaccine was announced. Business travel will recover. Eventually.

Funny how all the Schadenfreuders come out of the woodwork during an aviation crisis. FMS82 I have read many of your posts on PPRuNe telling Pilots the glory days are over. I find it funny that people who are not even in the aviation industry feel compelled to jump onto a Pilot forum and spread their doom and gloom.🙄 Maybe you should be on here instead of PPRuNe https://forum.all-energy.co.uk/

Last edited by fastidious bob; 11th Nov 2020 at 05:28.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 06:10
  #29 (permalink)  
 
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27,000 pilots needed worldwide in 2021 is quite close to CAE’s projection of 264,000 pilots needed worldwide over the next 10 years!

Sounds wonderful until you do the maths. Now I appreciate there are a lot of small nations and in aviation demand terms quite insignificant, but that is balanced by some very large and high demand countries. There are 195 countries in the world.

264,000 divided by 520 (weeks in 10 years) brings that number down to 507.
Divide that 507 by 195 countries and the number comes down to 2.6

Obviously that number needs proportionality weighting for each countries realistic demand, however Two and a half pilots a week per country doesn’t sound quite as exciting, I am guessing that’s why they chose the figure they did?
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 06:34
  #30 (permalink)  
 
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OutsideCAS

A lot here want to reassure themselves, but don't take your dreams for a reality. Vaccin is not here yet, and virus is changing...
airlines won't hire in the next few years, any wannabes. Get new skills and stop believing BS from medias. Luck though
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 07:22
  #31 (permalink)  
 
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All IMVHO

If there's a successful vaccination program, (and that includes international recognition of such a vaccination):

Leisure travel will return fairly quickly, business travel not quite as quick, and perhaps never in the volume it was pre-Covid, which has implications for pilot recruitment.

So those who have a dream of soaring like a bird will at least be in with a shot of getting up at o'dark thirty to go off and fly an ILS into somewhere in the next 5-10 years...

The 100 k question however for those that are more financially driven and/or who see all this as an "investment" need to ask themselves is how long will it take T&Cs to recover to anything like pre-Covid levels...by that I mean pay, rostering, for long haul operators time of down route, quality of facilities down route....

..Because as someone posted on a parallel thread the shine does wear off and bills always need to be paid...


Last edited by wiggy; 11th Nov 2020 at 08:00.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 07:37
  #32 (permalink)  
 
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not to mention conditions will be very bad post covid 19 .....
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 08:45
  #33 (permalink)  
 
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“conditions very bad post Covid...”. Yes. Salaries back in many cases to what they were decades ago...For those “lucky” few who find any kind of flying job.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 08:48
  #34 (permalink)  
 
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people living alone should be paid more

dns

Yes, people living alone don't have the distractions of a nagging wife or screaming kids, so they can devote more time thought and energy to the job. Significantly more pay for them, only them, could defuse the negative thoughts that you mention and could be very cost effective in terms of superior productivity.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 09:07
  #35 (permalink)  
 
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ShotOne

In many cases the salaries actually were better decades ago. I still have the wage slips to prove it!
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 10:53
  #36 (permalink)  
 
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fastidious bob

Thanks for the feedback, good reminder to focus on more productive pastimes.

I'll have a look at that other forum, thanks.
Best of luck to all.

PS: I count 2 posts on the topic. No schadenfreude by the way, plenty of people close to me hit by this...
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 11:27
  #37 (permalink)  
 
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People are apparently confused between working from home and traveling for business. The former will change as covid19 passes, the latter will be a fraction of what it used to be. Permanently.

Do you really think those 9.99 tickets purchased 7 months in advance keep the airline afloat? Nah, it's the last minute business flyers buying premium.

Any recent grad or in-training student that hasn't seriously considered changing careers at this point is about to have a tough wake up call of how cyclical this industry is and how low it goes during the bad times. You don't want to be caught on the next downturn (implying there is an upswing after all this) finding out that literally no one cares about flying experience outside of well... flying.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 13:18
  #38 (permalink)  
 
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You only have to look back at 2008 to see a "death of business travel" prediction. This of course didn't happen and business travel will be back again with time.

It's difficult to convince people to sign a million dollar contract based on a few zoom meetings.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 13:58
  #39 (permalink)  
 
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And what about 9/11? That was also predicted to be the end of ALL mass air travel, not just business travel. Lots of experts suggested that people would be so scared of the prospect of their plane becoming a weapon that they would change behavioural patterns in favour of driving. Some were even making educated guesses on the number of surplus road accidents to occur as a result of that shift from flying to driving.

In the end of the day, people remain people, not biorobots programmed into performing a set of instructions over and over again. And the latter is precisely what cancelling all meetings forever looks like. Satisfaction and productivity in a job as a laptop operator is a lot lower than in one where you actually go to places, meet people and your brain is far more stimulated then in the same room behind the same screen day in and day out. Not to mention that business travel isn't only about meetings. In Europe, a massive number of families live in separation because their members work in different countries. Those are people who fly literally every weekend - because that's the only way they have to keep their job AND their family. Movement of skilled manual workers will also not stop being a thing. Even during the April lockdown there were flights with construction personnel, crop harvesters, ship crews and all sorts of other working people who need to be physically present at their place of work. So, while the premium cabin close to the pointy end of the plane will likely no longer be there on most short-haul routes, volumes will still remain decent enough to eventually give jobs to those who want them badly enough and are ready to do whatever it takes to get there.
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Old 11th Nov 2020, 15:00
  #40 (permalink)  
 
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Blimey, really? 9/11 and GFC?

I'll raise you. By a multiple of 50x at least, and give you our gift from China.
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