Career advice for Pilots..

[lucille]

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.

As for acquired immunity? Presently it’s the best kept secret - no where is there even educated speculation on whether it exists or not. And the vaccine? I’m reading it’s two years away.

While the global population remains susceptible to being infected there will be lockdowns, border controls etc none of which is good for the airline business.

[procede]

Originally Posted by lucille

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.

And then the virus is also mutating, so there might be a new form for which the immunity is different...

[torvalds]

Originally Posted by CW247

What some of you doomsters are not factoring in is that 2020 represents a vastly different social landscape compared to 1929, 1973, 2001 and 2008. Sure we were human then and we're still human now with the same basic needs, but those experiences have made us stronger and more resilient. We are more resilient to and more accepting of debt now. We are less accepting of a poor outlook in life. It is this attitude which sets us on course for the stars. We simply know no other way of making a living other than the way in which we do now. In 1929, the average person was as qualified as their parents and children, and society offered nothing by way of innovation and advance in understanding of science/tech.

The present generation of 'doers' (I guess not you 60+ types) know and understand that our prosperity lies in a quick recovery. We would therefore do anything we can to bring that about to make our lives easier and prosperous. Regarding QE, if we can have a monetary system based on fiat currency and fractional reserve lending (i.e. fake numbers on a screen), then why should the fixing/patching of such a monetary system be any more real? QE creates inflation, but clever accounting by the central banks can "fix" that too. Watch this video, and gasp:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kCIoq5F7O4

What's a couple of trillion between friends. C'mon you can't be that illiberal. Only few years before that we didn't care about the trillions disappeared from the defence budget either, so why would it count.
Just keep the party going and the peasants wont notice a thing.
I think it's time to let it go. And at any rate, it is an ancient history (2008). Didn't you hear that a (who cares) "singer" married some hillbilly "lady" yesterday and they spend their honeymoon in Wuhan? Now, there, there, back to the program.

[NoelEvans]

Career advice for Pilots..

Cargo ... ... ... ...

[FlyingStone]

Originally Posted by NoelEvans

Cargo ... ... ... ...

Cargo has been in decline for more than a decade. I doubt the current demand will last a long time.

[Herod]

Divorce Lawyer? I know, it needs training, but Marriage Counselor doesn't (at least in UK) and will be in BIG demand.

[jan99]

With respect to a return to a semblance of 'normal': not until we get widespread testing for both antigens and antibodies that puts people in one of three groups: 1. immune, 2. sick or carrier, 3. 'virginal'. Wait for that to develop. Looks like months at present.

[Falling_Penguin]

My old Nan used to say: "Misery loves company". I always wondered about that but reading most of the contributions on this thread I am starting to see what she meant...

[finestkind]

Interesting conversation. 1999/2000, if I remember correctly, had an article in one of the aviation magazines on the shortage of pilots and the safety issue associated with this. Where once you needed X amount of hours PIC to be looked at by the commercial airlines this had drastically reduced over the preceding years causing concerns about the safety in the cockpit. This was due to inexperience, particularly in the regionals due to rapid promotion of F/O to fill the seat left vacant of those leaving on min hours to the biggies. 9/11 appeared to solve that problem for a few years. So will this current situation put a brake on the recruitment situation, undoubtedly. The other part of the equation, as mentioned by a few, is the economic situation. After lifting of restriction many people will remain unemployed. They will not be able to afford to fly (even on credit as most people appear to live on). Those that still have employment will not have any leave so no holidays for possibly in excess of 12 months. Business’ with what was once a requirement for face to face dealings probably found during this time that business could be conducted without face to face dealings.



What I am implying is that it is unlikely that aviation will return to “normal” in a short period of time. Just as many business will not reopen their doors it is unlikely that aviation will return to pre virus status within months. I do not see an airline holding onto personnel for months nor personnel hanging in limbo for months without an income.



Best of luck to you all.

[Sholayo]

Originally Posted by Flying Clog

I would say IT or an Engineering degree.

I am afraid that by the time you get that 'IT or Engineering degree' airlines will hire again.
With all respect, earning degree in the above would take you longer than it would take me to get through Integrated ATPL. The latter is more expensive of course, but you need solid 2-3 years of study to get the the level anyone would like to hire you. Yes, it is easier to get an interview, but after 18 moths of online courses your salary would match FA and not FO level

&

[torvalds]

Originally Posted by finestkind

Interesting conversation. 1999/2000, if I remember correctly, had an article in one of the aviation magazines on the shortage of pilots and the safety issue associated with this. Where once you needed X amount of hours PIC to be looked at by the commercial airlines this had drastically reduced over the preceding years causing concerns about the safety in the cockpit. This was due to inexperience, particularly in the regionals due to rapid promotion of F/O to fill the seat left vacant of those leaving on min hours to the biggies. 9/11 appeared to solve that problem for a few years. So will this current situation put a brake on the recruitment situation, undoubtedly. The other part of the equation, as mentioned by a few, is the economic situation. After lifting of restriction many people will remain unemployed. They will not be able to afford to fly (even on credit as most people appear to live on). Those that still have employment will not have any leave so no holidays for possibly in excess of 12 months. Business’ with what was once a requirement for face to face dealings probably found during this time that business could be conducted without face to face dealings.



What I am implying is that it is unlikely that aviation will return to “normal” in a short period of time. Just as many business will not reopen their doors it is unlikely that aviation will return to pre virus status within months. I do not see an airline holding onto personnel for months nor personnel hanging in limbo for months without an income.



Best of luck to you all.

Was there an increase in accidents and incidents after the PIC hour regulation's change?
Could anyone please point me to a research on this subject?

[PeterWeb]

Originally Posted by lucille

There’s only one variable which will effect the speed of recovery of this industry: Widespread immunity from this virus. Either acquired via having recovered from an infection or by application of a vaccine.

Agreed, that's the main variable. But we'll also be influenced by firmer infection fatality rate figures if they turn out to be significantly lower than current estimates. We will likely also be influenced by improved prevention and treatment strategies, and for sure the threat level felt by a 20 year old is already vastly different to that felt by a 70 year old.

Remember, economies like South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have not shut down completely to tame this virus - there may be ways it can be either greatly suppressed or potentially lived with, even in closer-contact situations like an airplane.

As for acquired immunity? Presently it’s the best kept secret - no where is there even educated speculation on whether it exists or not. And the vaccine? I’m reading it’s two years away.

On the contrary, there is indeed educated speculation, mainly based on the experience with other coronaviruses, with SARS, and on monkey studies. Acquired immunity is not likely to be short-lived. That is, it should last months or years rather than weeks or months. Furthermore, the rate of mutation of coronaviruses in general make them less of a vaccination-defeater than the flu. No guarantees of course, but this is probably the least-bad part of what we know about this thing so far.

While the global population remains susceptible to being infected there will be lockdowns, border controls etc none of which is good for the airline business.

International air travel will resume when we have five-minute serological tests we can take at the border - these are probably 10-20 weeks away, not years. Travellers may also carry cards showing they were tested and shown to be immune at home, but I dare say most countries will want independent checks before boarding and perhaps again on arrival.

Nothing I've said above is intended to understate the seriousness of what we're facing and how bad it might get in the short term, especially for the most vulnerable and for health workers. We certainly need the current lockdowns to, at the very least, buy time to come up with smarter measures.

But the human race can be very adaptable when under pressure.

(Speaking as an SLF who cancelled a five-week trip in early March and who is very keen to resume travelling at the right time).

[ferry pilot]

There will be hard times ahead, but there will also be entrepreneurs and opportunity. Cheap fuel, airplanes for the asking and qualified crews willing to go where the work is may not look anything like where the industry was a few short weeks ago but it may be where much of it is going when the dust settles, if it does not do so soon. For those who cannot return to the comfort and routine of familiar equipment, routes and schedules, a change in expectations and location might be a better option than a change in career. No matter how bad things get, there will always be an airplane sitting on the ground somewhere in the world because it does not have a pilot.

[marchino61]

Originally Posted by RudderTrimZero

Mutations are not always for the best. A chance "bad" mutation could result in disaster for the virus. In fact, it happens all the time in the natural world, otherwise we wouldn't be around to tell the story.

If a mutation is harmful to the virus, it will simply be eliminated from the population. The unmutated viruses will carry on as before.

[mothy1583]

An interesting development that is being looked into is the relationship between Covid infection and those that have been inoculated against TB.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-coronavirus

Lots of advancements in science that can piggy-back on older developments.

[jvr]

Originally Posted by RudderTrimZero

Mutations are not always for the best. A chance "bad" mutation could result in disaster for the virus. In fact, it happens all the time in the natural world, otherwise we wouldn't be around to tell the story.

i think Darwin would disagree

[3Greens]

Originally Posted by Livesinafield

Regardless of how this pans out, its not a bad idea using your off time to get another skill/trade as a back up anyway. I flew with many fairly new Fo's over the last few years that are new to the industry and countless times I explained that how it is now is not the norm and it won't last and something will crash the industry as its so fragile and here we are...chaos, I want to be optimistic and it will recover again everything does its part of the cycle of everything over decades, but will it return to the same ? Probably not, and the new guys new to the game will be at the bottom of a long list of very experienced guys, ask anyone who flew through the 2008 onward era

Bets of luck to all of us

how on earth is anyone supposed to learn a new trade in a few months, given that all the trades are also on lockdown? Bricklaying, plumbing, welding all takes a dam sight longer than 3 months to learn. I don’t mean one of those zero to hero college courses, I mean proper time served trades, the kind I’d let actually do some work for me.
oh, and they’re also sat at home too, only they’re worried because the government has left them high and dry with the wage bailout.

[flocci_non_faccio]

Exactly the above. If you're not already qualified (and current, to use an aviation term) in another profession or trade, it is simply fanciful to suggest that you're going to find a job paying even a fraction of current salary. The priority is going to be finding any job to bring in a wage, especially for those of us with a family. It is unlikely that many will have the time (at least three years just to do a degree for example) or money to re-qualify in a different field, so the majority of pilots will be seeing out their working lives in minimum wage employment.

[Mooneyboy]

Why not turn this into a more pro active thread instead of a ‘everyone is doomed’ thread.

Does anyone have any experience of being made redundant as a pilot and what jobs did you go into or what advice do you give others?

Is there any ( I know someone clever will say McDonald’s) jobs or career where pilots skills are transferable or regarded as a positive that can be used to support a family?

I’m hoping not to have to use the advice but might be useful to work out a plan for those of us with long aviation careers and not much else.

[dcoded]

Originally Posted by Mooneyboy

Why not turn this into a more pro active thread instead of a ‘everyone is doomed’ thread.

Does anyone have any experience of being made redundant as a pilot and what jobs did you go into or what advice do you give others?

Is there any ( I know someone clever will say McDonald’s) jobs or career where pilots skills are transferable or regarded as a positive that can be used to support a family?

I’m hoping not to have to use the advice but might be useful to work out a plan for those of us with long aviation careers and not much else.

There is ATC training where you work as a "sim-pilot". NATS/Country equivalent must be training for ATCs somewhere, and surely there a "sim-pilots" employed there to be a counter part in training.
Worth checking out.