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Career advice for Pilots..

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Career advice for Pilots..

Old 28th Mar 2020, 11:12
  #61 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: London
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Originally Posted by GS-Alpha View Post
If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in? If no lock downs or government economic intervention or virus spread suppression occurred, and no vaccine was ever found, what position would the global economy or airlines be in? Neither of these two extremes are likely to happen, but how close to either extreme is history going to record? Nobody knows! We can either be pessimistic for the future, or we can be optimistic. I knew back in January that we would arrive at the position we see ourselves in today, because whilst I saw China doing an amazing job, the rest of the world was not taking the situation seriously enough. Most people I spoke to, thought I was being incredibly pessimistic, but I was just being a realist. (I bet the world’s leaders are wishing they had immediately shut down all travel out of China and had traced and tested every individual who had travelled out the previous month; a massive undertaking which complacency at the time, deemed to be an over the top reaction. Now look where we are? I doubt they will make that mistake again).

However, I am optimistic that we can control this pandemic to quite a large extent, even before a vaccine comes along. Antigen and antibody testing does not require anything like the testing of vaccines, and as they soon become readily available, they will be very important tools to help us suppress the spread of the virus. The need to recover the economy ASAP is leading to a lot of money being being thrown at research and innovation to combat the effects of this virus, (and that learning will also be incredibly useful for the inevitable next virus to come along).

So whilst I agree this pandemic does have the potential to become the aviation game-changer being suggested here, (and I believe things are going to get a lot worse over the next month and lead to far more popular belief that this will indeed be the case), I am confident that the science will rapidly evolve, enabling us to move further away from the disastrous end of the spectrum of possibilities, and much closer to the more optimistic end. The possibilities for the economy follow a similar spectrum. The governments of the world are giving the science more time by pumping large amounts of money into the economy. The overall outcome will depend on how much time the science requires. That is pure guesswork at the moment, but I for one am choosing to remain optimistic.
Naturally everyone wants to get back on their feet right after they fell and without much delay. Even after getting wounded the adrenaline kicks in, but then again, so as reality.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 11:44
  #62 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 11:57
  #63 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2018
Location: Melrose
Posts: 29
Career change

I can sympathise with the people on here. I was made redundant twice in my career. I am a professional mechanical engineer, trained by Rolls-Royce, with a First Class Honours degree. I changed jobs seven times in a 40 year career, mainly on promotion, and was twice head hunted. I never made money, like you chaps at the sharp end of an aeroplane, but I did, quite early on, save enough to keep a year's pay in a separate account. That turned out to be a good idea,

I wanted to be a pilot, but didn't get into the Glasgow UAS (my legs were too long for the Harvards they flew!) and the chit I was given on being turned down, which might have taken me to Cranwell on a three year commission in the RAF when called up for NS, was useless, as I became an aircraft engine designer at R-R (Conway and RB 211) and was thus permanently exempt. So I had to learn to fly at my own expense later when I could afford the time and money. I agree that training as a plumber or electrician, if you can manage it, would be a good line of business as some of my friends do that and they earn more than I ever did. I think the advice to have an alternate career before training as an airline pilot might be sound in these days. Do airlines not prefer trainees with degrees in science or engineering these days anyway? I ought to mention that my career spanned all the way from railway locomotives to [email protected] guidance for bombs. If you choose mechanical engineering you do widen your prospects!

Last edited by Olympia463; 28th Mar 2020 at 12:10. Reason: typo
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 12:25
  #64 (permalink)  
Snr
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Scotland
Posts: 19
Originally Posted by Doors to Automatic View Post
I retired from the industry last Summer after 25 years as an airline economist. I spent most of that time working with airports providing them with data and advice on attracting new routes and understanding the performance of their existing networks. Here is my take:

I think this crisis is by far the worst the industry has seen in its 70 year or so history. Short of a nuclear war, it is hard to imagine what other scenario would result in the shutdown of virtually the entire industry for an undetermined time but likely to be at least two months.

9/11 was a tremendous shock, yes, but this is on a completely different scale. Back in 2001 the timing, leading into the low season accelerated the demise of many inefficient carriers that had been teetering on the brink for some time. The low cost revolution was just beginning and the event seemed to prime the market further for the explosive growth which began the following year. By the Spring of 2002, with no further attacks, people started flying again in droves, demand stimulated by the low fares, especially in Europe and by 2003 the LC industry was booming.

Similarly people still flew during the global financial crash, and although demand (and capacity) dropped, airlines still had cash-flow and the efficient ones were able to ride the storm. Again, the worst hit in the Autumn of 2008 so the Summers of 2008 and 2009 were still able to generate some profit.

This is different. We don’t know when flying will begin again, and when it does, which will either be in June or July, the forward bookings for the lucrative Summer season will not be there. People will still be reluctant to travel because of the virus and many will be tightening their belts in the face of a recession whose depth or duration no one will know at that point. This is the time when airlines drive yield which gives them two months of exceptional profitability which essentially pays for the rest of the year. Without it next Winter will be brutally tough.

So we have a situation that is at least as big as 9/11 and the crash combined, with worst possible timing added in.

I think we will see capacity cuts of 30-40% but possibly higher this Summer. Next Winter will be dire and the recovery will only begin a year from now. I think most airlines will lose money until 2022.

My prediction is that it will be at least 2-3 years but possibly more before capacity returns to pre-virus levels. Much will depend on how quickly the recession is over and how deep it ends up being.

Yes, the industry will recover but it will be in years, not months.

I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.

Last edited by Snr; 28th Mar 2020 at 12:26. Reason: Sp.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 13:05
  #65 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: UK
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Originally Posted by Herod View Post
Not of help in the present situation, but. The current lock-down aside, have you ever come across an unemployed plumber or electrician? Yes,I know, it takes an apprenticeship, at least in UK. Apart from events like this, the job is very dependent on things like medicals. I had to retire medically just before turning 58. Luckily the pension kicked in at 60, but that two years was a case of living on savings, and being unable to find a job anywhere. Advice to a young man: train as a plumber/electrician/welder/ heavy-goods driver. Then go fly.
Plumber, electrician, gas fitter, welder, joiner, car mechanic all good. The problem with being an HGV driver is that a medical issue as a pilot might be one as a driver as well.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 13:16
  #66 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: London
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Originally Posted by Snr View Post
I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.
Makes me wonder why do we ever resort to austerity and why can't we just get rid of poverty once and for all? Just imagine, if the governments can "give" unlimited free money to spend, then we could have an even bigger economy already and would be better prepared when the shite hits the fan. This is a no-brainer. We have the wrong set of decision makers in power.
I am convinced now, just sit tight and wait it out. Not even the sky will be the limit. Spend quality time with your loved ones and don't worry about a thing. Imagine it is a bad dream or you are on a holiday and the weather turned bad.

I agree though, most of the skilled labour type jobs are probably a good choice (if you give a toss)
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 14:08
  #67 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Germany
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Originally Posted by Clandestino View Post
I do not find the scenario where fleet, seat or seniority is relevant probable.

Methinks the most probable scenario is unprecedented scale recruitment in Europe, including planeloads of DECs, later this year or early next at the latest.
I don't always agree with Clandestino, but in this case I think there is certainly a possible scenario, where there is a massive shuffling of the cards and existing or quite probably new airlines hire a lot of qualified people including some currently working in Turkey, China, the Middle East etc. Some older pilots in previously gold plated jobs when faced with new perhaps less attractive conditions will choose to retire. The overall market may take a while to return to current levels, but generally after a big downturn like the oil crisis, the gulf war, twin towers, 2008 financial crisis etc. things recovered quicker than was expected at the time. Of course the pandemic is different and we don't know for sure what the consequences will be like medium term. If it mutates, immunity does not develop and it carries on over several years like the flu of 1918 then we could get to the situation described by the thread starter. But if that is the case then we probably all have more to worry about than not having a job. I remain so far more optimistic.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 14:27
  #68 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: somewhere in the middle
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A small little point of data on a massive field, but the local radio station has been running a competition - when a particular song plays, phone in, caller 100 (or whatever) wins £1000.

When the DJ asks what the lucky winners are going to spend it on, every answer has been “A holiday, as soon as this is done”.

The demand will be there, just as soon as these lockdowns are over. People don’t just forget 15+ years of cheap city breaks and weeks in the sun.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 15:05
  #69 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Location: London
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Originally Posted by thetimesreader84 View Post
A small little point of data on a massive field, but the local radio station has been running a competition - when a particular song plays, phone in, caller 100 (or whatever) wins £1000.

When the DJ asks what the lucky winners are going to spend it on, every answer has been “A holiday, as soon as this is done”.

The demand will be there, just as soon as these lockdowns are over. People don’t just forget 15+ years of cheap city breaks and weeks in the sun.
It is the sixth day of the restrictions and pretty much all paid for by the "free" money flow. Unlimited QE's, trillions of "stimulus", etc. Wait a bit after the free money river dries up and count again the number of upbeat "spend on a holiday" callers, or if the radio show still offers the prize (shows need advertisement to pay for their airtime, no working economy => no revenue => no production to broadcast).
I really doubt that any sane person would argue the fact, if it was a short term crisis, then it wont have much impact at all. However, we don't know. The caller didn't know it either, only noticed the withdrawal signs of "living beyond his means".
Absolutely agree with your other point though, people are addicted to the current system and wont let it go easily. They need their SUV's, the holidays and all the other perks coming with the debt based society.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 15:08
  #70 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Far East
Posts: 357
From the very first post by Flying Clog.
"To anyone who has entered into a flying career since 2010, or any pilot that has less than 5 years on a loco seniority list or 10-15 years on a legacy seniority list;


I think it's time to wake up. You will likely never see the inside of a flight deck again."

I tried to read all the posts so I might be repeating. 30 years airline expat flying. Two gulf wars, 9-11, SARS, GFC. Have been around for a while. To put it politely, I think that very first post is utter rubbish. Doomsday mumbo jumbo.

June or July the recovery will begin, and when a vaccine is found, hold onto your aviation hats!

Well that's my 5 cents worth.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 15:21
  #71 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Having a margarita on the beach
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Originally Posted by Snr View Post
I agree, a well reasoned argument, however with one missing viewpoint. When this dies down, be it mid-summer, or late autumn, many billions of people around the world will have been in isolation for months. The majority of those will probably still have jobs to go back to (due to various unprecedented stimulus packages from governments), will have been getting paid while sitting at home (the UK's 80% salary Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme being an example), and not have spent a penny on anything other than food and utilities. They'll be desperate to fly - whether to get some sun, or to visit family they haven't seen for months.

Add to that the fact that every major event has been postponed from the first half of 2020, but still planned to go ahead, the economic rebound will be huge. The Olympics, Formula 1, football, rugby, music events, business conferences, all taking place over the course of the following year.

Naturally it goes without saying that this is all conjecture - it could go either way, this is just the optimistic view of one pilot currently sitting on their couch.
Respectfully disagree. A pandemic is not something You turn off using a switch unfortunately. Leisure travel will be almost non existent till there will be a vaccine on the market or a highly effective cure. Once all the different countries will be through their worst moment in terms of new cases, they will slooowly start to resume daily life activities with highly stringent measures but opening up boundaries for leisures travellers will be the last priority to avoid a new increment in active cases. IMHO, according to what is available to be read on the web, every country will have to sort it out first before any further "mix" can occur, and this will take a long time. I believe that if we are really lucky we will see some leisure travel in the summer of 2021. I would love to be proven wrong, and I hope it happens.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 15:29
  #72 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: everywhere
Posts: 92
Originally Posted by flocci_non_faccio View Post
It’s clearly not going to take 18 months for international travel to start again. It will be up and running within a couple of months. The issue is the volume of travel, which isn’t going to be nearly enough to sustain aviation jobs at the level they’re at now.

The industry that emerges is going to be a third of the size it is now, and it will never get back to its current size ever again. Hence, the majority of those about to lose their jobs will never fly again.
I see you posting very precise numbers on numerous threads, yet every flying colleague I have the discussion with, some who've been in the business decades and seen it all, have absolutely no clue how we'll come out of this. Your sharp and seemingly certain figures are astounding.

Anyway, my humble opinion is that things will recover and will in time reach pre-covid levels, if not greater. There will be aggressive expansion at some point post all this. (cue cries of the never ending pilot shortage again... all part of the circle of life in this industry)

People are desperate to get away, this clearing will be like the end of a prison sentence for everyone. People will want to travel, you never realise how valuable something in life is until it's gone ... a lot of people are feeling that way. If it is at least managed by June/July, I wouldn't be surprised to find many try to salvage something of a summer holiday in August/September. It of course won't be 100% of what was initially planned, but those fearing blank rosters may have something to at least pay the bills and stay current in an aircraft.

Could we see a busier winter schedule from all those who didn't manage to get away in May/June? Who is to say no for sure? ... there are numerous possibilities, so far any major event has only led to great expansion post event (9/11 etc) ... why will this be any different?

Bottom line is it will recover, precisely at what point we reach pre-covid levels is anyone's guess.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 15:43
  #73 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: China
Posts: 27
Leave the speculation to the C suite airline exec's and their respective governments, us drivers don't actually know the high level financials of these companies.

Instead of sitting on the couch guessing what will happen, use the time to lose a few of those extra kilos, kick a bad habit and maybe learn something new. Don't spend unnecessarily and plan for the worst possible outcome.

Much more than that is a waste of energy and time.

Edit: if you have the means, consider trying to help those that are really suffering now.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 16:41
  #74 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: French Riviera
Posts: 13
Give it a few months . It will all be back to normal .
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 18:45
  #75 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Uk
Posts: 1
A lot of the people I fly with at least have a background in IT they can go back to......they hated it so much first time round that they self selected themselves to be pilots but ho hum.

i think the idea you can just retrain is incredibly naive and simplistic. Most captains pay is in line with say, a junior NHS consultant, ie it’s not something you can do a 6 month correspondence course and be back at the pay level you were before.

And if not, do something in demand, like bus driver that requires a bit of training but no rocket science .

the notion bricklaying is recession proof , seems a tad dubious as well
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 19:05
  #76 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Correr es mi destino por no llevar papel
Posts: 1,417
Originally Posted by lederhosen View Post
I don't always agree with Clandestino
Our agreements are usually product of misunderstanding, the last one being no exception.

Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
But you do find probable a scenario where a company thats having to make large scale redundancies because they’re running out of money make available a vast sum of time and money to retrain their remaining pilots onto new fleets (because they’ve just indiscriminately chopped let’s say the bottom 50% of their seniority list without regard to the numbers left on each fleet)?
No, I do not.

Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
Or are you saying there won’t be any redundancies?
No. Quite the opposite.

Originally Posted by RexBanner View Post
I take no pleasure in this.
Neither do I. It's Galgenselbsthumor, rather than Schadenfreude.

Originally Posted by GS-Alpha View Post
If this virus completely went away tomorrow, what position would the global economy and airlines be in?
The global economy? What would that be? The societal system that claims that your food, clothing, shelter, education, vaccine and flight ticket are not worthy having unless those who made or provided it did so at profit? Currently, stockmarkets are fine. There are about three million more Americans filing for unemployment benefits this week than last.

Welcome to meltdown.

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Old 28th Mar 2020, 19:43
  #77 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: EU
Posts: 1,218
The great unwashed were happy to keep flying until - and after - the lockdown. But for government rules, many aircraft would be flying with good load factors even today. I think the rebound will be very quick. Summer 2021 will see pax levels back up to whatever capacity is left.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 23:23
  #78 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Kent
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by Mooneyboy View Post
I know an FO whose first career was an HGV driver. He says if you got the right licenses/category there’s plenty of work.

I can't stop laughing. The shortage of HGV drivers is a myth. There are plenty of drivers, there just aren't enough prepared to work for peanuts, ie minimum wage AND be treated by everyone like they have just stepped in something nasty. Try looking at a few HGV drivers' fora to see what the job is really like. It wouldn't keep you in peaked caps.
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Old 28th Mar 2020, 23:37
  #79 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Liverpool
Posts: 5
Thanks for the heads up. Pretty cool of you to post such impressive insight...

I’m pretty sure this is helping massively with their mental health and focus. Also, I’m pretty sure they’re all aware professional piloting is risky business. Your attitude leads me to believe you’re a semi senior in a national airline? Certainly smells familiar.

i hope you’re having a terrible day.

regards...

ignorantly ignored a lot of the posts before posting my own- 747 captain with 18 years.. so I answered my own question. Retire, pal. Go and spend your life boring the sh!t out of people in your local. I promise, they really won’t give two hoots. Again, I trust you’re having a truly awful day.
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Old 29th Mar 2020, 00:07
  #80 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: Europe
Posts: 1,036
Originally Posted by Flying Clog View Post
Yes, I was going to say Accountancy as well
It is rather a bad advise I would say. Mass accounting jobs are under serious pressure for quite some time now due to outsourcing to India and smart technologies are getting smarter all the time, requiring less and less personnel. Financial management and analytics are in better shape for the years to come but it will take 5+ years of getting experience before you can expect a decent job in this field.
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