Will there be panic hiring?
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Will there be panic hiring?
I was curious to know wether anybody thinks their will be some sort of panic hiring. Airlines and corporate management must realise there is not an endless supply of type rated pilots out there.
Contrary to popular belief, it is not so easy for pilots who went overseas from Europe to just suddenly return. They have to uproot their families, take kids out of school and then their is the obvious contract and commitment they have to their new employers.
The aviation industry is no doubt recovering but at what speed is anybody's guess, especially in Europe. Are we expecting another 2005 boom. Airlines realise it takes time to train and get a pilot online and up and running.
Will they suddenly just panic and grab experienced non type rated pilots or not. Surely airlines of the world and their management must now be assessing the year ahead and find themselves in a tough spot.
Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down but the question remains, when do they start grabbing crew so as to be ready for the good times which at some stage will return
Contrary to popular belief, it is not so easy for pilots who went overseas from Europe to just suddenly return. They have to uproot their families, take kids out of school and then their is the obvious contract and commitment they have to their new employers.
The aviation industry is no doubt recovering but at what speed is anybody's guess, especially in Europe. Are we expecting another 2005 boom. Airlines realise it takes time to train and get a pilot online and up and running.
Will they suddenly just panic and grab experienced non type rated pilots or not. Surely airlines of the world and their management must now be assessing the year ahead and find themselves in a tough spot.
Nobody wants to be caught with their pants down but the question remains, when do they start grabbing crew so as to be ready for the good times which at some stage will return
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Well,
In a market the usual indicator of supply and demand is price.
Given the general degradation in terms and conditions and in the levels of remuneration being offered in most markets, the supply clearly outstrips the demand.
The market for most products is tiered to reflect the different grades or quality within that marketplace. So the market for experienced captains is likely to be very different from the market for 200 hour CPl holders.
Any sign of an upturn in a regional market is likely to be reflected by an increase in the levels of remuneration and overall improvement in the packages being offered.
Given the large numbers of hopeful aspirants who are prepared to give their services for "free" And even pay the "employer," and the pent up demand from experienced career improvers, not to mention military service leavers and pilots whose circumstances have forced them outside their own zone of desirability, it is very hard to see where any short term improvment would result in an undersupply.
In fact most pilots in employment are rarely on contracts exceeding 3 months (on either side.) Retraining is little more than a 3 month excercise. I don't think any employer really sees themselves in a tough spot.
Given the weakness in demand, the supply is astonishing and showing few signs of letting up. It is quite reasonable to assume that any strengthening in demand would result in even more people joining the supply chain. That notwithstanding, there is a massive buffer in place to provide a smoothing influence.
"panic hiring?" No I don't think so, not unless a virus wipes out most of the supply.
In a market the usual indicator of supply and demand is price.
Given the general degradation in terms and conditions and in the levels of remuneration being offered in most markets, the supply clearly outstrips the demand.
The market for most products is tiered to reflect the different grades or quality within that marketplace. So the market for experienced captains is likely to be very different from the market for 200 hour CPl holders.
Any sign of an upturn in a regional market is likely to be reflected by an increase in the levels of remuneration and overall improvement in the packages being offered.
Given the large numbers of hopeful aspirants who are prepared to give their services for "free" And even pay the "employer," and the pent up demand from experienced career improvers, not to mention military service leavers and pilots whose circumstances have forced them outside their own zone of desirability, it is very hard to see where any short term improvment would result in an undersupply.
In fact most pilots in employment are rarely on contracts exceeding 3 months (on either side.) Retraining is little more than a 3 month excercise. I don't think any employer really sees themselves in a tough spot.
Given the weakness in demand, the supply is astonishing and showing few signs of letting up. It is quite reasonable to assume that any strengthening in demand would result in even more people joining the supply chain. That notwithstanding, there is a massive buffer in place to provide a smoothing influence.
"panic hiring?" No I don't think so, not unless a virus wipes out most of the supply.
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Panic hiring? Don’t ever think that will happen in the aviation industry. To be iterative, everything is got to do with supply and demand. There are just too many pilots out there and too few airlines to soak them all up.
I still don’t understand how so many get into the industry as it costs around 45k and above to even get started with a blue book.
My view would be that aviation is cynical and although we are seeing a very steady growth it would be difficult times ahead for both the experienced and the newbie’s. Also, to take into account there are many experienced pilots that want to come back to the uk?
Unemployment figures are rising.
To leave you in a positive note, never give up if you really want it badly. Currently working for goldmansachs for 2 days a week and had sneak peek at the recruitment files. How can I put this in the most basic way? ITS HARD EVERYWHERE!
I still don’t understand how so many get into the industry as it costs around 45k and above to even get started with a blue book.
My view would be that aviation is cynical and although we are seeing a very steady growth it would be difficult times ahead for both the experienced and the newbie’s. Also, to take into account there are many experienced pilots that want to come back to the uk?
Unemployment figures are rising.
To leave you in a positive note, never give up if you really want it badly. Currently working for goldmansachs for 2 days a week and had sneak peek at the recruitment files. How can I put this in the most basic way? ITS HARD EVERYWHERE!
Last edited by ba038; 25th Jan 2011 at 00:42.
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@Bealzebub
That is a wonderful post, it explains the situation clearly. It's unfortunate that so many don't seem to understand the concept of supply and demand, and are willing to spend thousands and thousands to obtain the certificates which will enable them to spend thousands and thousands more to get the ratings that will enable them to spend thousand and thousands more to sit on the sideline with "minimum hours" and ratings to qualify for a job, but be competing with people who have years, and even decades of experience.
It seems too many think that the 2005-2008 blip was "normal", rather than looking at the past 4 or 5 decades and seeing that it was not normal, and that we can never expect to see that level of hiring again.
That is a wonderful post, it explains the situation clearly. It's unfortunate that so many don't seem to understand the concept of supply and demand, and are willing to spend thousands and thousands to obtain the certificates which will enable them to spend thousands and thousands more to get the ratings that will enable them to spend thousand and thousands more to sit on the sideline with "minimum hours" and ratings to qualify for a job, but be competing with people who have years, and even decades of experience.
It seems too many think that the 2005-2008 blip was "normal", rather than looking at the past 4 or 5 decades and seeing that it was not normal, and that we can never expect to see that level of hiring again.
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Yes, in business, supply and demand pretty much sums it up. However, there still remains the problem of the uneven playing field for pilots at present.
BALPA is suppossed to be challenging the rules regarding pilots paying for their type ratings and P2F. This is a major hurdle for a lot of experienced pilots because airlines like RYR have destroyed it for everyone.
If the 1500 hour rule was brought in like in the US with regards to joining an airline, this would suddenly change the supply and demand rates of pilots in Europe with experience in the pilots favour I believe.
I completely agree there is an over supply of pilots at present but the problem is that the industry is so badly run and until that changes, it will remain dire for crew.
BALPA is suppossed to be challenging the rules regarding pilots paying for their type ratings and P2F. This is a major hurdle for a lot of experienced pilots because airlines like RYR have destroyed it for everyone.
If the 1500 hour rule was brought in like in the US with regards to joining an airline, this would suddenly change the supply and demand rates of pilots in Europe with experience in the pilots favour I believe.
I completely agree there is an over supply of pilots at present but the problem is that the industry is so badly run and until that changes, it will remain dire for crew.
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even if there is panic hiring in the air, airline will offer sponsorship paid by the student.
as it takes less than 2 years to train a pilot unlike any other profession,
they won't have any problems to line up students ready to spend their daddy money.
Ryanair, since they created the company, has never been in a worry of a pilot shortage. pilot shortage is a myth.
sadly, most of pilots will never get a job! most 200h pilots finished married with kids, and their dream is gone.
as it takes less than 2 years to train a pilot unlike any other profession,
they won't have any problems to line up students ready to spend their daddy money.
Ryanair, since they created the company, has never been in a worry of a pilot shortage. pilot shortage is a myth.
sadly, most of pilots will never get a job! most 200h pilots finished married with kids, and their dream is gone.
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What do you mean by "panic hiring" ... it's going on with the big 3 arab mega carriers right now ... all of them placed massive massive jet orders and now the planes are arriving and they need bums on seats right the hell now and they're finding out that there aren't actually enough experienced first world pilots interested in making the move at any price. Unfortunately for you guys it's still and always will be a closed market to the fresh European wannabe, insurance companies are pretty much the ones who dictate the minimum experience levels.
The only other kind of "panic hiring" that's gone on has also been dictated by insurance companies ... i.e. Korean Air, after their disastrous air safety decade in the '90s the insurers told them to get a certain percentage of westerners in the driver's seats or they wouldn't insure them - their hand was forced and there was certainly some "panic hiring" at that stage.
I can't see any European airline that meets either of those two categories at the moment so no I would sincerely doubt that any "panic hiring" will be going on and if there is, it will be almost certainly for experienced, type rated commanders.
The only other kind of "panic hiring" that's gone on has also been dictated by insurance companies ... i.e. Korean Air, after their disastrous air safety decade in the '90s the insurers told them to get a certain percentage of westerners in the driver's seats or they wouldn't insure them - their hand was forced and there was certainly some "panic hiring" at that stage.
I can't see any European airline that meets either of those two categories at the moment so no I would sincerely doubt that any "panic hiring" will be going on and if there is, it will be almost certainly for experienced, type rated commanders.
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'type rated commanders'..........and therein lies success or failure at the upper end of the food chain.
Me - experienced and out of work for over a year with 7000 hrs, half of which is PIC, and a current jet rating (with 1000 hrs PIC) that nobody wants.
The type rating is everything - and luck, of course, which seems in short supply.
Me - experienced and out of work for over a year with 7000 hrs, half of which is PIC, and a current jet rating (with 1000 hrs PIC) that nobody wants.
The type rating is everything - and luck, of course, which seems in short supply.
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I last saw 'panic hiring' in 1992, when the supply was restricted by the UK CAA's inability to test candidates fast enough. Conditional job offers were being made on the strength of a booked IR test. There's been nothing like that since.
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There will never be a panic with hiring. Because of people prostituting themselves by buying typeratings and linetraining, airlines have all the people in the world they need.
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Really soon airlines will be desperate for new pilots, preferably fresh out of school. They will pay you insane amounts to fly their planes and have sex with their stewardesses.
Why no you?
Why no you?
