We're all *****d!

[spinnaker]

WWW

"Major house price crash = major recession"

Why?

Because, although prices were overinflated to begin with, the real crunch came as the banking sector run out of money and confidence.

The current house price 'crash' is just an adjustment of prices back to standard values following a period of stupid greed fuelled price soaring - nothing more.

Errr. Nope. There is an element of price adjustment but there are underlying inflationary pressures on the economy that have been in place for quite some time.

Typically house price 'crashes' follow not proceed recessions dont they?

Not this time

Recession > manufacturing/service sector (seen as we dont make anything anymore) downturn > job losses > mortgage difficulties > house price crash?

Manufacturing/service sectors havnt crumbled, people arent being laid off left right and centre.....no recession as yet AFAIK.

Your following standard model. If you look at it as an economic loop, which is what it is. Then any part of that loop which breaks, has a knock on effect to other parts of the economy. Interest rates are not coming down, they are going up. Grain prices are at an all time high although eased a little, there are no long term indicators that prices will ease by much more. Everything you eat depends upon grain, so your food bill is going up significantly. I calculated food inflation to be at 4% pa last December. My figures at the farm gate for March was 5%-6% pa. My latest farm gate figures for May show an inflation rate of 8% pa. I predict that this will be close to 10% by the year end.

Inter-bank issues exist granted - not really indicative or a result of the UK economy IMHO. In fact the UK economy has dealt with this pretty well (so they keep telling us) - which maybe indicative of it its strength.

Too simple. The UK economy is not doing well, in fact its very fragile. Northern Rock - gone. Bradford & Bingley - teetering. Massive write downs by all the big boys, plus inflation. More to come. It's not an if, its a when, regarding recession.

Oil prices -woooo - Not a shortage lead issue AFAIK. This is a supply issue. The OPEC countries are squeezing us by strangling thier supply/prcessing rates. Might end in war (in which we all jump out of our airliners (when/if we ever get in one) and into our Typhoons....yay) but not a recession

There is a small surplus in the world oil production, so no, not completely true to say that is just a supply issue. Hedge fund managers are heavily into oil speculation since the American sub-prime went belly up. They are looking to make up for heavy losses. In a way, if oil was to reduce in price, I feel that many banks would suffer further.

Too gloomy for my liking although i am with DJ here in that I think the train-headlight reference is very good

I knew I would find something that we would agree on
It is gloomy, but it is reality.

[General Zod]

The guys who just finished CTC Wings in May have been told that their line training at EZY has been postponed as Easy aren't taking on anyone until AT LEAST November.

By which time there'll be another 5 classes graduated!!

[boogie-nicey]

It's somewhat distressing to count all the references being made to Mcdonalds and Burger King. As potential aircrew you need to up your game and stop crying or throwing yourself onto the bottom rung of the ladder. Life is tough and so is aviation but the answer doesn't lie in the self harming "I don't care about myself" approach that many have adopted by seeing Macs and Burger King as the only option. If I were interviewing you (not that I ever will ) I'd be notably unimpressed at the fact that you've clearly learned nothing and cannot think out of the box so to speak. There are a plethora of other jobs in between that you should be aiming for, after all what if that magic call never comes? Are you going to stay at Macdonalds for the rest of your career? If you're all so clever and have done the Everest ATPL groundschool exams then why can't you enroll on an IT or accounting/finance course and whip out a QUICK foundation exam or something just to give you a small cushion for the meantime and something worth putting onto your CV. In case the call doesn't materialise you'll have the foundations of an alternative career or at interview you can claim that even in the non-aviation world you always strive for the best and push yourself to achieve that.

All this clap trap about working in the fast food industry reminds me of those heart broken romantics that would find solace by punishing themself to join the French Foreign Legion or sail to distant lands never to be seen again by their loved ones again . Just because things don't go well you have to pick yourself act like an adult and do the next best thing whether your ego or heart likes it or not, that's practical living. There are many inclduing myself that train whilst working and raising a family and still feel privileged to be a part of this. I think alot of this applies to the younger age group and those on the metored schemes where the cadet pilots are so mesmerised by the mentoring airline they almost sign over their life to them only to find themselves waiting years and sometimes not even getting anything tangible at the end.

There were pilots in the 60s that had everything paid for and little to worry about too, but we don't spend our time despairing about how good they had it we just get on with it. Alot of you are still extremely lucky just to have had the opportunity of flight training. I realise that you've spent alot of money but what are you saying that someone else with an ATPL didn't? They were all expensive qualifications and a downturn is nothing new there have been countless pilots around the world that lost out in previous recessions.

If you failed to plan then you are the ones reaping the dismal rewards of that now. For those of you with an ounce of patience get something else in the meantime for you to hold onto until the storm passes and then once the sun's back you won't even remember any of this "who-ha". BUT PLEASE NO MORE MACDONALDS OR BURGER KING.

[belongins]

Boogie wonderland

Yay - sense and sunshine all in one post

In a wierd way i guess its almost beneficial to start late (age-wise like me) after having made a very nice professional career elsewhere in the current climate

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by boogie-nicey

BUT PLEASE NO MORE MACDONALDS OR BURGER KING.

But that's where some belong, looking at some of the posts around the forums. Particularly from alleged experienced experts. I've heard more sense coming from first solo ppl's

[spinnaker]

djfingerscrossed

Have another look at my post. I don't think I criticised individuals for asking questions, or shouted at anyone.

I wouldn't worry about the strength of my criticisms, ask my MP.

[mustflywillfly]

Boogie, couldn't agree with your post more. In fact it is suprisingly similiar to a post I made about 1000 this morning on the legendary "Growing Evidence......" thread.

http://www.pprune.org/forums/showthr...311832&page=38

Prior Prep Prevents Piss Poor Performance !!

Cheers

MFWF

[d41xcs]

EZY are great...but they're not the be all and end all!! Other airlines do exist!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

If there is a recession on, your CV has an 18 month whole in it where you were in flying training and you are badly in debt you may find that the only job you can get that pays and pays next week is flipping burgers.

At a time of rising unemployment an employer has his pick of applicants and current staff stop resigning and switching jobs as they lose length of service protections.

I know people who has CPL IR's and Frzn ATPLs but <500hrs in the 1991/2/3 period who were working as window cleaners and van drivers.

I'm not talking theory but historical fact and it will happen again.

WWW

[drivez]

Im not an expert so please correct me if im wrong but.

The far east is currently recruiting pilots i beleive and not just one or two. And apparently the pay is good.
Ryanair is recruiting upto 200 pilots everyyear some as cadets.
Easyjet as prior stated.

So i think what may happen is bad times in America, I think that alot of pilots will be short of work, and some of the "bigboys" will go under just like pan am etc.
Some of the experience in europe and America will shift to the far east toward sun and pay. Leaving a few jobs for the new people. ryanair and the sorts prices will rise but they will survive. Then in about 5-10 years or when we ge a change in government fuel prices will slow down and begin to fall. New airlines will pop up and we'll be back to hunky dorry. Then 10-15 years after that well be back to fuel shortages unless we develop something new. Fuel prices are climbing dramatically but the worlds oil hasn't halved and the world consumption hasn't doubled so somebody is screwing us all over and the tax. Hurry on hydrogen engines or whatever.

If you just want to see the world there is an advertisment up in my school for new officers on ships. Or you could join the RAF they're in desperate need of pilots.

Anyways difficult is just worth doing.

[Grass strip basher]

I think you will find the RAF are not in "desparate need of pilots"..... I fear you are about to get flamed for that comment... airline and military flying are chalk and cheese

[spinnaker]

djfingerscrossed

No sweat, life's too short.

My MP, Labour! good god no. Much worse, LibDem. Since retiring, I took a deeper interest in politics. A couple of issues bugged me, so I wrote to him with my concerns, his replies were dismissive, so I promised him a slot on the 6 pm news together with the health minister. He said I wouldn't do it. Guess what, I did. His red face looked superb alongside that of Nicola Sturgeon. Best viewed on a sony. 'Colour like no other'

Cheers

PS all the edits are for grammar and spelling 2/10
teach

[belongins]

WWW

and pays next week is flipping burgers.

Not me - I have an excellent well paid and established career to 'fall back on.' I just fancy chasing a dream......


B

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

14 yr olds are totally forgiven for knowing nothing and being 180 degrees wrong.

The audience here is wide. Great that you've got a fall back career. Many haven't and quite proportion of those have nothing but massive debt and their parents loans to fall back on.

Employers don't find you attractive as a failed pilot. It suggests you get yourselves into things you don't understand, that you will have money worries and that you are a dreamer. Sorry, but that's what many 40yr old Bosses will think about you if you are in your 20's and have a CPL/IR but are applying for some menial £20k job on the basis of some easy foundation qualification.

And they'll think to themselves that at the first chance of a flying job you'll ditch this exciting opportunity in the Paper & Packaging industry to go fly aircraft. Which would be true. Better to hire the guy you hasn't blown £70k on a license he's desperate to use elsewhere.

The job interviewer is more likely to be put off by your CPL IR than impressed. Trust me as I've sat on BOTH sides of that desk.


There is only ONE thing that is true and that you need to know. Never ever miss-time your entry to the career of pilot. To do so is disaster. Classic miss-timing would be to complete CPL IR Frzn ATPL MCC anytime from Feb 2008 to Dec 2010.

At the earliest.


This time won't be exactly like the last HPC and recession. History doesn't repeat itself - but it does rhyme.


WWW

[spinnaker]

djfingerscrossed

To give an opinion on how the airlines and job prospect are affected, maybe a look at how we got to where we are now with the general economy.

The following is not a lesson in economics, just some background to my own observations to show how I arrive at my conclusions.
My background has been in food production, the civil service, and of course aviation. (I'm now back into food production as a farmer and a writer)

We all know about house prices. That's the headline. But its what has caused the sharp downturn, I would call it a recession. Prices were high and the bottom rung of the housing ladder broke early/mid 2007 (some would argue sooner). For many first time buyers, a new home was out of reach. The economy was still doing well, interest rates low. Absence of the first time buyer was starting to have an effect on all prices and started a much welcomed correction in the inflation rate. Still no problem on the surface, but while we felt comfortable with the situation, a huge problem was heading our way. Yup. The American sub-prime. We all knew that in the US things were looking bad, but what we did not know was the extent UK banks were exposed to that market. Even the banks did not know themselves, and some still do not. During the latter part of 2007, when the valuations came in for funds the UK banks had in the states, it was nothing short of disaster. Banks lost money, in vast quantities and stopped lending to each other. Enter Northern Rock. The banks position was untenable. It relied on a much higher percentage of loans to deposits to fund its business. Now we have a real problem, imprudent lending on a huge scale, reliance upon loans from other banks, which were not forthcoming, and finally complete collapse of pubic confidence. The genie is now well and truly out of the bottle, and it will not go back in. So the high prices for homes was not the only cause for the current climate. The market will continue to remain depressed for some time until the finance sector recovers. Further pressure is brought to bear because interest rates have not fallen, they have gone up, lending is much tighter and less money in our pockets.

Fuel price. Its not possible to put a finger on one single element that is keeping the price high. Political instability in some countries, the growing consumption in Asia and the hedge fund managers. There is a world wide surplus, but its not huge, that makes it attractive to the speculator. Buy and the price goes up, because it creates a perceived shortage. Sell it for a profit before the ship docks and your home and dry. That's what is going on at the moment.

Grain. Everything you eat needs grain, and again prices are at all time highs. Why? again the asian markets have increased their demand, but that is not the sole reason for the current price. Last year was not a good crop, that's one reason. Its our friend oil, or the oil companies this time. Farmers are attracted to grow energy crops like they have never been before. The amount of land used for food production has dropped in recent times to a level that is causing major instability and shortages in the markets. I calculate food inflation to be running at least three times that of the figures published by government (from my own experiences and industry sources). Now this is important, the lower the household income, then the percentage spent on food increases, couple that with escalating fuel and housing costs, there is a lot less disposable income after living expenses have been paid. For many families there is no disposable income.

So that leaves the aviation industry in a very tight spot. Much of the traffic is holiday based, and for obvious reasons, the holiday is the first to get the chop. For this year I reckon airlines will be making as much savings on costs as they can, but I cannot see major job losses apart from one, or two companies folding, not a collapse though. For 2009 I see a different picture. All of the key areas above show no signs of recovery for some time yet, inflation is rising. I feel the industry will slide into recession and a real risk of job losses may occur.

So what would I do, if I were to start a flying career. If I were a 20 year old, I'd go for it, youth is on your side to weather the uncertainty, and when times get better, you will be ready for that jet job or a command. If I were mid 30's, play a little safe, get ready to go back to your previous occupation. Over 40? got a good job, hang onto it, fly a cessna, they really are good fun at the end of the day.

I really wish I could have written something brighter, I cant, because to do so would be pure fantasy. Maybe I'm wrong and you guys can come back in 12 months and call spinnaker and ass, I'd like that.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

1) There is an argument that the LAST thing Brits cut back on is the god given right to take the kids on a decent holiday (often defined as 2 weeks on the costas with a kids club, 3 bars and an eat & drink your own bodyweight daily challenge tariff). Often put forward by IT charter pilots.

2) I'm not sure being 20 is such a good idea. I believe there will be a similar scale airline industry in 10 years. Probably in 20. In 30 I get a little nervous..

3) This is the biggy - it only takes a coupe of airlines at the margin to go under to totally shaft all Wannabes. In the 1990's recession it was Air Europe and Dan Air going under that did the damage. Plenty of other airline continued to trade, millions continued to fly each year and the sun still comes out - even in a recession.

But, when a couple of airlines go to the wall they release hundreds of experienced and rated pilots who suddenly will take any job at any wage. They don't need type rating courses, they don't need extra line training they present zero training risk.

Doesn't matter if CTC or Oxford or the RAF say that you are Gods Gift to aviation. Nobody wants to know when there are a stack of CV's by current airline pilots who are typed and hungry.

Your IR and your exams will expire before you get a first job interview. Some will laugh at you. The school that you trained at will have gone bust. Family and friends will be asking when you are going to start using your license. You have no language skills unlike all those Scandies and Dutchies who have perfect English and have already started learning Bengali or Madarin. The Bank Manager will be hunting you down with night vision goggles.

Once a few airlines or even one airline at the margin goes under it is GAME OVER for wannabes in a recession.

But nobody tells you this.

Unless you read here and listen to Wild-Eye-Weasley and his spickle flecked rants of doom (see I do have self awareness).

Seriously, things will be bad and unless you understand the last time this happened you probably have no idea how bad it gets and how quickly it occurs.


WWW

[MIKECR]

www,

As you rightly say, it gets bad VERY QUICKLY!! The last 2 months have seen an amazing downturn on the job front. I was lucky to get a couple of interviews within a very short space of time but to be honest im beginning to get worried. The 2 interviews have led to 2 holding pools but i begin to get the horrible sinking feeling that my optimism may be short lived. The expected moves(TP guys to jet jobs) in both companies hasnt happened this summer. The Ezy's, BMI's, Thomas Cooks etc just havent been hiring the last 2 months. Unfortunately these TP pilots have no where to go and are stuck in the 'Regionals'. Until these pilots move on, theres no places for the likes of myself.

For the rest of you guys who are poo pooing www, I would listen up if i was you. Take it from me, as someone who has been job hunting for the last 12 months, its gotten vary bad lately! The immediate future looks pretty grim. You'd do well to listen to guys in my position.

[spinnaker]

djfingerscrossed

At least you have a plan 'B' and taken the time to read about other points of view.

When www said it gets bad quickly, during the last episode it certainly did.

One thing to remember after reading the daily newspaper dose of gloom (or one of my posts). People will still buy houses, they will still fly, airlines will still need pilots. Its a question of how many and a recognition that the job market is in for a rough time.

[Rollerboy]

Just to strengthen what you are saying Mike although you might not want to hear it.

TP guys sitting in the middle rungs of the seniority list are much more happy to stay there in the present climate. As with most airlines seniority is king and now is not the best time to be proping up a list of 600-2500 from the bottom no matter what you get to fly.

To all those embarking on the CPL/IR courses now, things will get difficult so choose the course wisely and make sure you have that backup plan b should things go wrong.

As for CTC vs Oxford vs Cabair vs FTE vs Modular, just remember that hard times level the playing field. In 12 months time there WILL PROBABLY be no airline placements (at least not in the UK), however the best pilots from the above with the fight to survive will always find a flying job in the end.

For those complaining about the doom and gloom just take a good look around, things are not going to get better overnight in the current climate. Silverjet has just released a number of experienced pilots onto the market nobody knows who might be next to release pilots.

Still it's your money and your future in the end make a considered opinion with all the facts at hand and make that decision. Just pray it's the right one.....


Roller

Oh and mikecr don't know whos hold pool you are sitting in but if one is the UKs largest regional operator you should get that call.

[belongins]

@WWW

Employers don't find you attractive as a failed pilot. It suggests you get yourselves into things you don't understand, that you will have money worries and that you are a dreamer. Sorry, but that's what many 40yr old Bosses will think about you if you are in your 20's and have a CPL/IR but are applying for some menial £20k job on the basis of some easy foundation qualification.

I am not in my 20's not that that would have anything to do with anything in this legislative day and age anyway

Foundation qualification - uhmm well lets see BSc (Hons) Physics, CPhys, CEng.....hardly foundation qualifications are they oh and all on the back of nearly 8 years professional duty the last 4 of which ahve been at senior level

WWW i have to tell you your posts come accross, to me at least, more as antagonistic rather than from a helpful guidance perspective.
Which is it that you intend?

B