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The CTC Wings (Cadets) Thread - Part 2.

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The CTC Wings (Cadets) Thread - Part 2.

Old 10th Nov 2009, 07:54
  #3301 (permalink)  
 
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sharpclassic.... Exactly when did socloss claim the situation was ideal?
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 09:11
  #3302 (permalink)  
 
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The ICP option is (in their words) self funded and you dont do a type rating at end of it.
As opposed to the Wings programme which is self funded, secured and you don't get a TR at the end of it by the looks of things. Wow, you'd better put big pressure on yourself to make 'the grade'! DO NOT BELIEVE THE HYPE.

Summer contracts/flexiwings is b*llocks. It's not a proper job. You can't plan your life on a temp contract. You can't get a mortgage on a temp contract. Don't be fooled into thinking that a temp summer contract is a good thing.
And that is if you are lucky, but is exactly the point. It is amazing how that stuff really doesn't matter before pilot training.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 09:54
  #3303 (permalink)  
 
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One9iner,

I wasn't making a point to solocross, he/she seems aware of the problems building.

My point is that all you new starters seem to be happy to be one of 12 starting every month (the same unsustainable figure as 2007), accepting the fact that there is no chance of a permanent contract at the end, just flexiwings for an undetermined period of time.

One question to you... where do you see yourself 10 years from now?
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 09:57
  #3304 (permalink)  
 
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One9iner, sharpclassic asked a simple question:

and how many people who started in '07 are in full time jobs
Why the banging-head emoticon? Socloss's first answer talked about FlexiCrew placements, not permanent full-time employment. 'Ideal' or not doesn't come into it - the fact is that virtually nobody who started the course from 2007 onwards has found permanent, full-time employment.

In addition, I have it on good authority that those who have just finished their initial 6 months plus a bit of FlexiCrew time on the 737 with EZY, and are now out of the game for the winter, have just been told there might not be any work for them next summer. And because of FlexiCrew, they have no comeback - if the airline simply decides it doesn't want them, then that's that.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 12:33
  #3305 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah but CTC will probably just rate them on the A320 so that when things pick up in the next 12 months and all the airlines start hiring again they will be given a permanent contract on the 320 late next year.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 12:50
  #3306 (permalink)  
 
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Are you joking? In the unlikely event that A320 positions arise I'd imagine they'd be desperately offered to, and be desperately received by waiting swimmers in the over flowing hold pool.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 13:14
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I think one post only had his tongue firmly in cheek

wbv
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 13:14
  #3308 (permalink)  
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If things pick up in the next 12 months and all the airlines start hiring again then - I agree - there will not much of a problem.

However.

The opposite of this is going to happen.


Unemployment is the US just breached 10%. A barrier not broken since before WW2. The UK is lagging in time but headed in the same direction. Airline frequently only go bust a year or more after the recession ends. Ours, at 18 months the longest since WW2 hasn't even ended yet.

For compelling anecdotal evidence look at BA losing money for two years running for the first time ever. Or easyJet closing, or shrinking, UK bases to move the aircraft and jobs abroad. Or BMIBaby who are reducing their total fleet from 17 to 12 and making redundant over 50 pilots most of whom would have over 10,000 jet hours. There are ominous rumblings from the newly merged Charter airlines who are carrying more pilots than they need and groaning under the strain with no sight of a 787 relief flight.

As counterbalance its fair to say that things are fair to middling at FlyBe.


If your planning on a recovery in airline recruitment in the next 12 months then you'd better change the plan. Quickly.


WWW
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 13:17
  #3309 (permalink)  
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Oh, yes, I think he probably did.

<embarrassed cough>


WWW
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 13:54
  #3310 (permalink)  
 
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In order for CTC to have any of the trainees currently waiting in the holdpool ready for their summer job they will need to have them ready by April/May 2010. There is an 8 week lead time for the TR so we will either hear stories of TRs by/ before end of Feb or CTC are going to face some even tougher scrutiny.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 17:25
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Correction to my last post about historic unemployment in the US. Having double checked my off the cuff remarks I found that the previous postwar high was 10.8 percent in December 1982.

If the US does go past this (only another 0.6% required) then you're back to 1929 and the Great Depression for a bigger number.


WWW
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 17:29
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I *think* easyJets net increase in fleet size for next year is 7. Assuming a ratio of 5 crews per aircraft this means 35 new Commands for current FO's and therefore 35 new jobs for FO's to join. Allowing for a few leavers/medical losers then an annual demand of around 40 cadets might be about right.

Other than Ryanair (33k SSTR) or possibly FlyBe I don't think there's any other expansion plans in the UK amongst major airlines for 2010.


Middle or Far East, Sir?


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(There, back on topic)
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 19:42
  #3313 (permalink)  

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Nil desperandum

A small note of consolation, WWW. There is a reasonable retirement bulge from 2010 in the mainline charter carriers, and no doubt other operators in Europe too. Jobs may not be advertised but there will be a modicum of positions for experienced bods.

Not good though, I'm afraid. Hanging onto mine for the moment.
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Old 10th Nov 2009, 20:23
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WWW: Correction to my last post about historic unemployment in the US. Having double checked my off the cuff remarks I found that the previous postwar high was 10.8 percent in December 1982.

If the US does go past this (only another 0.6% required) then you're back to 1929 and the Great Depression for a bigger number.
The figures have been under estimated.
Their model could not handle the early part of the year.

:Bloomberg Annual Revisions
The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February (2010). They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009.
The backward revision comes February 2010 & expect that 824K to also be revised up....
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Old 11th Nov 2009, 18:07
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Being in the UK, my eyes are more on UK unemployment figures.

BBC NEWS | Business | Rise in UK unemployment slowing

Which are still increasing granted! But at the slowest rate for over 18 months... Nearing the top of the parabolic curve lets hope! Although I doubt a freefall to normality is within seconds just yet.
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Old 11th Nov 2009, 21:41
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Seasonal hiring for Christmas always flatters the Oct/Nov employment figures.


We're 15 months behind the US. People over there, then, were saying unemployment was peaking. It wasn't. It isn't.


Public sector job losses don't even start properly until financial year 10 in April next year...



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Old 12th Nov 2009, 16:46
  #3317 (permalink)  
 
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There is a reasonable retirement bulge from 2010 in the mainline charter carriers
Sorry, not in TOM. In fact we are still trying to lose another 10%

DC
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Old 14th Nov 2009, 13:02
  #3318 (permalink)  
 
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I *think* easyJets net increase in fleet size for next year is 7. Assuming a ratio of 5 crews per aircraft this means 35 new Commands for current FO's and therefore 35 new jobs for FO's to join. Allowing for a few leavers/medical losers then an annual demand of around 40 cadets might be about right.
Would that not make 70 new FO places?

You would need 35 to replace the upgrades, plus 35 for the new aircraft?
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Old 14th Nov 2009, 20:02
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Plus the ones who lose their medical……ill say around 75….
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Old 15th Nov 2009, 08:16
  #3320 (permalink)  
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35 full time jobs and 35 summer work experience.

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