Thats interesting Layinlow. I guess time will tell but there will be changes in the US market for sure.

If you take into account the staggering losses from the US market it's hard to image layinlow being anything but RIGHT. The management team under the new CEO's leadership (Frank Appel) however are stating they are fully committed the US market. Read these:
http://www.cargonewsasia.com/secured...&article=15764

http://www.euro2day.gr/articlesfna/60501213/

https://www.cep-research.com/ceprese...ws_070308.html

Just to let you know. The information that I passed along is not rumor or innuendo but based on statements made by the respective companies. The economy is definitely slowing down and as they say, when the US gets a cold, the world gets pneumonia, at least when it comes to economies. I am old enough to have been through this stuff before, fortuantely working overseas. Aviation historically is always the last to show the effects of a slowing or rising economy.
As the the Polar/Atlas/DHL connection? Who knows but I am not getting warm fuzzies.

Non returnable Deposit
 

DHL have already paid $150 million (non-returnable) for a stake in PAWH and just signed 3 year contracts for 2 400's ILN ANC HKG ANC ILN.
If I read the articles correctly, the problem is with DHL Domestic US ( ABX, AStar ), not international.

A simpler way to put it, FedEx's cash cow is the US domestic, same with UPS. DHL it is intrenational market..
FedEx and UPS have been competing against DHL for years. In the last several years DHL had gotten serious in the US. The fight has been tougher.

PAWH
 

EJetCA,
the link you give is a partial copy of the Flight Service Agreement between THE COMPANY (PAWH) and Atlas Air Inc. To précis,
With regard to the Block Space Agreement (BSA), the Company will utilize six 400F and one 200F and any extra aircraft will come from Atlas Air Inc utilizing Atlas crews. After the SCBA is agreed, all crews will be from Atlas Air Inc. Atlas Air Inc will pay all CMI expenses.
It doesn't mention PAWH owning anything.

We all need to start focussing on the future and making sure, as a collective group our SCBA is industry leading with the AABO bunch stapled to the bottom as FO's.

After looking at the scheduled DHL flights that are to be performed by Atlas for DHL. Will the remaining Polar flights be used only to support more of the block space agreement with DHL? The closing of all the Polar lower 48 crew bases and opening of only the ANC base for Polar seems to dictate that? Will Polar eventually only be carrying DHL and/or the little cargo the current fly?

Habster
FYI you are a bit behind the power curve there good buddy. Fed Ex is heavy into the international market and have purchased companies in Europe, India, Japan, and China. They are moving aggressively into Europe and with 20 757's heading to CDG, and another bundle to China pretty much says it all. Not to mention the 16 777's.
As to layinlow's assessment, he is about right on. The industry is going to go into one of their troughs pretty soon and a lot of ACMI and bottom feeders are going to hit a serious wall. Only those with serious capital to keep it going during this period will prevail. Just look at the history.

>DHL have already paid $150 million (non-returnable) for a stake in PAWH and just signed 3 year contracts for 2 400's ILN ANC HKG ANC ILN.
If I read the articles correctly, the problem is with DHL Domestic US ( ABX, AStar ), not international.<

Actually, the problem stateside is with ground operations. Not the air side.

Stateside Problem
 

I don't know about other places but 3 years ago in my hometown there were no yellow and red trucks to be seen. Now they are everywhere. It costs mega bucks to set up that kind of infrastructure and run it but it's the only way to take on UPS & FEDEX. Plus it was all setup on a strong Euro, taking advantage of the dollar's weakness.

I don't know why Fed Ex and UPS would announce that they're collectively picking up 60% of DHL's flying (Fed Ex 35%, UPS 25%) if all DHL was planning is to reduce the ground operatons.

Trash,

Perhaps you would be so kind as to post a link to the news service where you read this from? My news servers don't have that. I therefore doubt Purple or Brown have announced anything such as you said in your post.

Commercial Appeal March 7th
Front page of the business section bottom article. If I could scan and put it on this site I would.

Here is the article I believe you are referring to. No such announcement. Just speculation on how much Purple and Brown might pick up. Mar. 6 Commercial Appeal business section:

FedEx, UPS look to gain if DHL scales back
By Jane Roberts (Contact)
Thursday, March 6, 2008

Analysts expect money-losing DHL will scale back in the United States and could make the announcement as early as today, handing FedEx Corp. and UPS a boon.

If DHL closes terminals and hubs, analysts say FedEx could get 35 percent of the lost business in the air and another 25 percent on the ground.

If the restructuring costs DHL 2 percent of revenue, FedEx stands to gain $45 million in business, according to a research note published Wednesday by Edward Wolfe. UPS, which has a more powerful ground network, stands to realize $71 million.

In 2004, DHL advertising envisioned head-to-head competition with FedEx in the United State. Today the company may announce it is scaling back its U.S. operations by closing hubs and terminals, which would give a boost to FedEx and UPS.

DHL, a subsidiary of Deutsche Post World Net, is the fourth-largest player in the U.S. overnight package business, with revenues in the Americas for 2008 estimated at $2.3 billion.

With 9 percent market share, DHL trails the U.S. Postal Service, (32 percent) FedEx (31 percent) and UPS (25 percent).

DHL joined the competitive U.S. overnight business in 2003 when it purchased Airborne Freight for about $1 billion, rankling FedEx and UPS, which accused the monopoly Deutsche Post of investing in a U.S. carrier to fight them on their own turf.

Both pressed the issue in lawsuits, which Airborne eventually won.

Airborne was the low-cost alternative to the big players, claiming about 10 percent of the domestic air express market and 2 percent on the ground.

DHL came in promising a threat to the established carriers, but in reality has kicked little sand in their faces, mostly because it has made a series of integration and operational errors that shook customer confidence.

Analysts estimate DHL has lost $2.8 billion in North America, including a recent $748 million write-down in the United States alone, where it has also announced 600 layoffs.

Wolfe expects DHL will close 85 small ground and air terminals -- as much as 25 percent of its U.S. capacity -- to stem the losses.

Satish Jindel, principal transportation analyst at SJ Consulting in Pittsburgh, says DHL will keep the U.S. markets it needs to protect the interests of global customers.

"I expect they will partner with other companies to handle business with smaller U.S. markets," he said.

Tuesday, Deutsche Post said it planned to split its logistics division into two divisions with separate executive boards. A second announcement could come today when Deutsche Post meets with analysts in Bonn, Germany.

Many analysts, including Wolfe, expect a more detailed plan will emerge in April or May when a DHL Teamsters contract will be ratified.

"DHL is in a tough position because if its customers believe there's even a chance it will leave the U.S., its competitive position will be compromised," Wolfe said. "At this point, we expect modest restructuring efforts will be announced March 6 ... with more restructuring to come."

For months, the buzz has been that FedEx or UPS was planning to buy the U.S. assets. That seems unlikely, based on antitrust issues, experts say.

"I think the antitrust people would not look too kindly on it," said Aaron Gellman, professor at the Transportation Center at Northwestern University. "It would be good enough if DHL just disappeared from a competitive standpoint."

Most doubt that will happen. Instead, analysts expect the deeply entrenched DHL will take time to retool and rise again.

"The burden of proof is always on anyone who suspects DHL doesn't have good strategy," said Paul Stewart, chief executive of 4-Elements Inc., a third-party logistics company headquartered in Arkansas. "They are a proven worldwide logistics organization."

Contact Jane Roberts at 529-2512.



http://www.commercialappeal.com/news...sed-to-profit/

Not exactly the same article I read but close enough. Fed Ex and UPS are the 5000 lb gorillas of freight and are not going to cede it easily

That article hvydriver was a few days prior to the one I mentioned. The headline of the item I read was Fed Ex and UPS" to profit from DHL or something close to that.
Both of the carriers have stated their loads are off quite a bit from projections. Fed Ex is better positioned because of the growing foreign markets. They bought a company (ground and air) in China, India and two in Europe. This offsets the declines in the U.S. market. Fed Ex still considers itself a growing airline and with the arrival of the 757's this year and 777's next year, the increased movement into the European markets, the expanding of the Asia market, well, you can do the math. The start of this conversation was the doubts about DHL's connection to Polar with the expected decline of their U.S. presence, (not he plans of Fed Ex or UPS). Those doubts are still there.

>I don't know why Fed Ex and UPS would announce that they're collectively picking up 60% of DHL's flying (Fed Ex 35%, UPS 25%) if all DHL was planning is to reduce the ground operatons.<

This is where I got confused I suppose then. Your statement here implies that there is a news article stating that Purple and Brown are picking up 60% of DHL's US operations. Myself, I don't think that's happening. everyone has an opinion of course, but your statement implies fact.

>Commercial Appeal March 7th. Front page of the business section bottom article. If I could scan and put it on this site I would.<

I went to the Appeal myself and cut and pasted the article in about 15 seconds. That's the only article that was in the business section that was close to what you were talking about in both subject and date that I saw.
Here are the search results for the Commercial Appeal:

http://www.commercialappeal.com/sear...=17&image.y=18

"FedEx, UPS look to gain if DHL scales back" is the article I posted.

Point in fact, your surmise is incorrect if you go back and look at the origination of the thread. Sounds like more shrinkage at Polar Air Cargo since they have little to show for profit outside the DHL deal that is basically flown by Atlas now. Typical upstreaming of funds to the holding company. I would normally have had a lot of problems with this, but the Polar MEC actions of the past have swayed my opinion on this.

It is now a who is going to screw who first first starting back in 2000 with Polar.

PO/5Y threads in general
 

You have probably noticed that quite a few posts on this thread (and others) have been deleted. Some of you have even written to me about it.

After consulting some Mod colleagues & higher ups, I've decided that enough is enough. The back-biting, viciousness, vilification and if I may say so, general airing of dirty washing are no longer welcome here. The signal to noise ratio has become exclusively noise. Should you feel the need to continue, please find another forum. ALPA for example, or make your own.

This thread is of interest to all of us in the market; keep it on topic & it will stay.

Thank you for your time.