Asiana 747F missing?
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A mysterious airliner mishap & rumor of "suicide"
From a few slots above, a news story repeats the usual post-mishap rumor:
"... it may have been suicide ..."
So, here it is again. Same old rumor. How many of our Respected Pilot Gossips will tell this rumor to friends & relatives -- who later repeat it, "SUICIDE! An airline pilot told me."
And once spoken by an airline pilot, he will forever defend his rumor, for decades.
"... it may have been suicide ..."
So, here it is again. Same old rumor. How many of our Respected Pilot Gossips will tell this rumor to friends & relatives -- who later repeat it, "SUICIDE! An airline pilot told me."
And once spoken by an airline pilot, he will forever defend his rumor, for decades.
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Just SLF but also have lived 12 years as an expat in Korea. There may be lots of 'issues' here regarding management of Korean companies, to the point that I will not fly a Korean airline - BUT the insurance thing notes above is not an issue as it is common for Koreans to buy insurance (which are really just a kind of savings plans that have a tiny insurance portion so that they can legally be sold by insurance companies). Basically, the captain buying insurance is a lead to be checked, but most likely nothing unusual.
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UPS6 and AF447 both had automatic status and failure messages sent from the planes. Hopefully, the same is true here, and there will be some early information.
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http://www.fire.tc.faa.gov/pdf/04-26.pdf DOT/FAA/AR-03/44 and www.skybrary.aero/bookshelf/books/1193.pdf "Halon 1301 is ineffective in suppressing or extinguishing a primary lithium battery fire ...."
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Why not? If you don't have any plan to kill yourself within the next month or so it shouldn't be a problem.
I doubt that this crash was suicide. No pilot can be so stupid that he doesn't realize that the FDR and voice recorder will tell if there's been a fire or not. However, I don't get upset because the investigation will look into the matter. Coincidences like this are rare and will of course be subject to speculation.
Why not? If you don't have any plan to kill yourself within the next month or so it shouldn't be a problem.
I doubt that this crash was suicide. No pilot can be so stupid that he doesn't realize that the FDR and voice recorder will tell if there's been a fire or not. However, I don't get upset because the investigation will look into the matter. Coincidences like this are rare and will of course be subject to speculation.
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Investigate "accident"? Or "crime"?
Observation, just above:
"... I doubt that this crash was suicide. ... don't get upset ... investigation will look into the matter...."
In decades past, sometimes, a core-group of "accident" investigators embraced a rumored scenario -- "pilot suicide", sabotage, the "Boeing Scenario", the missile scenario.
Investigator-err does happen: the investigators NEVER study investigator-err. [But they want you to study pilot-err.]
The main idea for investigators should be to focus on the direct evidence (trail of debris, examination of wreckage, recorded data, observations of witness-crew); discard or suspect manufacturer's created-scenario, "analysis", simulator trials. Accident investigators are not "crime" investigators.
"... I doubt that this crash was suicide. ... don't get upset ... investigation will look into the matter...."
In decades past, sometimes, a core-group of "accident" investigators embraced a rumored scenario -- "pilot suicide", sabotage, the "Boeing Scenario", the missile scenario.
Investigator-err does happen: the investigators NEVER study investigator-err. [But they want you to study pilot-err.]
The main idea for investigators should be to focus on the direct evidence (trail of debris, examination of wreckage, recorded data, observations of witness-crew); discard or suspect manufacturer's created-scenario, "analysis", simulator trials. Accident investigators are not "crime" investigators.
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No pilot can be so stupid that he doesn't realize that the FDR and voice recorder will tell if there's been a fire or not.
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More details on the Captain's very recent multiple insurance policies from the Korean press:
INSIDE Korea JoongAng Daily
Quite possibly just a coincidence in timing and I'm sure it will be checked out.
The Financial Supervisory Service, the nation’s top financial watchdog, held a short briefing yesterday to explain financial regulators’ position regarding the Asiana pilot’s insurance policies.
The media has reported that an Asiana pilot surnamed Choi [Sang-ki, the Captain], one of two pilots whose cargo plane crashed near Jeju Island on July 28, was found to have taken out seven insurance policies including two annuities and five nonlife insurance policies that could amount to some 3 billion won ($28.6 million [sic]) in payouts from six different insurance companies in the space of some three weeks starting in mid-June.
The FSS said that a blind spot in the existing cross-checking system shared by all local insurance companies could be involved and will be addressed.
Because an insurance company screens a prospective customer’s ability to pay monthly insurance payments, including income and expenses like subscription to other insurance policies, before issuing a policy, industry insiders say that it is unlikely that insurance companies would have approved all seven insurance policies to a single individual within the space of three weeks.
However, although data of all finalized insurance contracts are available on the industry-wide system, policies were not tracked during a period of roughly two weeks between a customer subscribing to a policy and an insurance company’s final approval.
“The insurance company is on the hook to compensate any insured accidents if the policyholder has made a single insurance payment, no matter whether the contract was finalized by the company or not,” said FSS Deputy Governor Kim Soo-bong.
The media has reported that an Asiana pilot surnamed Choi [Sang-ki, the Captain], one of two pilots whose cargo plane crashed near Jeju Island on July 28, was found to have taken out seven insurance policies including two annuities and five nonlife insurance policies that could amount to some 3 billion won ($28.6 million [sic]) in payouts from six different insurance companies in the space of some three weeks starting in mid-June.
The FSS said that a blind spot in the existing cross-checking system shared by all local insurance companies could be involved and will be addressed.
Because an insurance company screens a prospective customer’s ability to pay monthly insurance payments, including income and expenses like subscription to other insurance policies, before issuing a policy, industry insiders say that it is unlikely that insurance companies would have approved all seven insurance policies to a single individual within the space of three weeks.
However, although data of all finalized insurance contracts are available on the industry-wide system, policies were not tracked during a period of roughly two weeks between a customer subscribing to a policy and an insurance company’s final approval.
“The insurance company is on the hook to compensate any insured accidents if the policyholder has made a single insurance payment, no matter whether the contract was finalized by the company or not,” said FSS Deputy Governor Kim Soo-bong.
I doubt that this crash was suicide. No pilot can be so stupid that he doesn't realize that the FDR and voice recorder will tell if there's been a fire or not. However, I don't get upset because the investigation will look into the matter. Coincidences like this are rare and will of course be subject to speculation.
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Another potential clue to the cause of the crash in this morning's Seoul paper:
INSIDE Korea JoongAng Daily
Signs of fire on Asiana crash debris
August 03, 2011
Signs of fire were found on debris recovered yesterday from the July 28 Asiana Airlines cargo plane crash off Jeju Island.
“We do not know if it was an explosion or a blaze that started at a particular point and spread,” said Cho Tae-hwan, head of the committee in charge of the investigation. “But there are signs of fire on the pieces that we have.”
August 03, 2011
Signs of fire were found on debris recovered yesterday from the July 28 Asiana Airlines cargo plane crash off Jeju Island.
“We do not know if it was an explosion or a blaze that started at a particular point and spread,” said Cho Tae-hwan, head of the committee in charge of the investigation. “But there are signs of fire on the pieces that we have.”
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B744F QRH - Main Deck Fire
I see that the revised procedures for FIRE MAIN DECK have been released by Boeing in an Operations Manual Bulletin
Among the changes is this:
"Expedite a climb or descent to 25,000 when conditions and terrain allow. Plan to stay at 25,000 for as long as conditions allow. After the descent has been started, do not delay the approach and landing"
Presumably this procedure is based in part on a 2009 FAA Fire Safety Highlight
"CARGO FIRE CONTROL BY DEPRESSURIZATION"
which compared the effectiveness of cargo fire suppression by depressurization with that of an extinguishing agent (Halon 1301), to wit:
"...Series two test results showed that although depressurization reduced the initial burning, the fire intensity on decent was greatly accelerated. The highest depressurization altitude evaluated (25,000 feet) produced the best initial results but the largest fire on decent..."
Clearly, remaining at altitude for as long as possible before effecting a minimum time descent to approach and landing is indicated
Setting aside for now the very legitimate questions of possible structural damage, or whether an 'immediate landing' (downwind, overweight, off-airport, or ditching) may be warranted, my questions (related to the Boeing OMB and QRH change) are these:
1) Preferred 'min time' descent profile from FL250 to sea level 'clean' or 'dirty'?; that is,
- extend speed brakes and descend at Vmo/Mmo, or
- extend speed brakes, decelerate in level flight to 270K / .82M, extend gear, descend and accelerate to 320K / .82M
and
2) Approximate 'no-wind' time and distance required for each method
I would book some sim time and try it myself, but will be at home on vacation and days off until late in the month
Very interested in to hear your responses and opinions
WIth thanks to all
Among the changes is this:
"Expedite a climb or descent to 25,000 when conditions and terrain allow. Plan to stay at 25,000 for as long as conditions allow. After the descent has been started, do not delay the approach and landing"
Presumably this procedure is based in part on a 2009 FAA Fire Safety Highlight
"CARGO FIRE CONTROL BY DEPRESSURIZATION"
which compared the effectiveness of cargo fire suppression by depressurization with that of an extinguishing agent (Halon 1301), to wit:
"...Series two test results showed that although depressurization reduced the initial burning, the fire intensity on decent was greatly accelerated. The highest depressurization altitude evaluated (25,000 feet) produced the best initial results but the largest fire on decent..."
Clearly, remaining at altitude for as long as possible before effecting a minimum time descent to approach and landing is indicated
Setting aside for now the very legitimate questions of possible structural damage, or whether an 'immediate landing' (downwind, overweight, off-airport, or ditching) may be warranted, my questions (related to the Boeing OMB and QRH change) are these:
1) Preferred 'min time' descent profile from FL250 to sea level 'clean' or 'dirty'?; that is,
- extend speed brakes and descend at Vmo/Mmo, or
- extend speed brakes, decelerate in level flight to 270K / .82M, extend gear, descend and accelerate to 320K / .82M
and
2) Approximate 'no-wind' time and distance required for each method
I would book some sim time and try it myself, but will be at home on vacation and days off until late in the month
Very interested in to hear your responses and opinions
WIth thanks to all
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Fastest way to get down in the 744 was to lower the gear and use the speed brake during the descent. Issues to consider were the rising min manoeuvre margin (yellow line) on the speed tape.
The answer for me was to lower the speed brake (stow it) as you get near the gear out speed, lower the gear and simultaneously start the descent in FLCH to build up speed. You needed to get momentum as once that airspeed started to bleed off, it was hard to get it back.
Once the descent was underway and the speed building up, pop the brakes out to 'flight' and sink like a stone.
Any turning would see rising of the min manoeuver margin on the tape, but that was ok as actual airspeed would build up during the descent beyond the min manoeuvre and gear extension speed (extend speed was above extension speed).
The above action was for a rapid depressurization, not a fire in which you might not give a toss about the gear extension speed in the first place. It was also found unfavorable for the depress case and, soon after I joined that company, the procedure was removed from the QRH as an option for Rapid D descents.
Given we're considering depressurized flight at 25,000' after a fire warning in a cargo aircraft while motoring at best speed towards a landing zone (preferably a suitable airport, but not essential if still ablaze), then I guess there is a lot to be said for:
1. follow checklist
2. depressurized flight at high speed to a landing 'zone'
3. if actually on fire, flames confirmed, time since warning +10 mins
4. big call, but must get on ground or water asap
5. if not confirmed on fire, fly to landing zone at FL250 fast as you can go
6. on reaching TOD for selected landing, slow down
7. lower gear
8. simultaneously speed up and descend
9. when suitable margin exists beyond min manoeuvre margin, extend speedbrakes, dive toward airport, extend flaps on schedule or land flapless.
Tough call.
Whatever happens, there'd be no need to keep it pretty.
The answer for me was to lower the speed brake (stow it) as you get near the gear out speed, lower the gear and simultaneously start the descent in FLCH to build up speed. You needed to get momentum as once that airspeed started to bleed off, it was hard to get it back.
Once the descent was underway and the speed building up, pop the brakes out to 'flight' and sink like a stone.
Any turning would see rising of the min manoeuver margin on the tape, but that was ok as actual airspeed would build up during the descent beyond the min manoeuvre and gear extension speed (extend speed was above extension speed).
The above action was for a rapid depressurization, not a fire in which you might not give a toss about the gear extension speed in the first place. It was also found unfavorable for the depress case and, soon after I joined that company, the procedure was removed from the QRH as an option for Rapid D descents.
Given we're considering depressurized flight at 25,000' after a fire warning in a cargo aircraft while motoring at best speed towards a landing zone (preferably a suitable airport, but not essential if still ablaze), then I guess there is a lot to be said for:
1. follow checklist
2. depressurized flight at high speed to a landing 'zone'
3. if actually on fire, flames confirmed, time since warning +10 mins
4. big call, but must get on ground or water asap
5. if not confirmed on fire, fly to landing zone at FL250 fast as you can go
6. on reaching TOD for selected landing, slow down
7. lower gear
8. simultaneously speed up and descend
9. when suitable margin exists beyond min manoeuvre margin, extend speedbrakes, dive toward airport, extend flaps on schedule or land flapless.
Tough call.
Whatever happens, there'd be no need to keep it pretty.
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The Korean Times is reporting that the investigating authorities have located the plane in 80 meters of water.
Body of crashed Asiana cargo plane located
"The Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board that is investigating the case has identified the locations of 39 parts of the aircraft," Kim Han-young, an official from the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, told reporters.
"They (located parts) including the plane's tail, which will likely contain the aircraft's black box," he said.
...
"Meanwhile, the ministry official dismissed suspicions the crash may have been intentional as one of the two missing pilots was said to have taken out a number of life and property insurance policies totaling more than 3 billion won (US$2.8 million), just a month before the accident."
Body of crashed Asiana cargo plane located
Body of crashed Asiana cargo plane located
"The Aviation and Railway Accident Investigation Board that is investigating the case has identified the locations of 39 parts of the aircraft," Kim Han-young, an official from the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, told reporters.
"They (located parts) including the plane's tail, which will likely contain the aircraft's black box," he said.
...
"Meanwhile, the ministry official dismissed suspicions the crash may have been intentional as one of the two missing pilots was said to have taken out a number of life and property insurance policies totaling more than 3 billion won (US$2.8 million), just a month before the accident."
Body of crashed Asiana cargo plane located
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Fastest way to get down in the 744 was to lower the gear and use the speed brake during the descent. Issues to consider were the rising min manoeuvre margin (yellow line) on the speed tape.
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Bodies recovered
The wreckage of an Asiana Boeing 747-400 Freighter that crashed into the waters off South Korea has been found almost three months after the incident.
South Korean and Asiana officials said that rescue teams retrieved the bodies of the two pilots on Saturday, and brought them to shore on Sunday morning.
The search for the cockpit data recorder and the voice recorder continues, they added. There was no information on the state of the airframe.
The aircraft, with the registration HL-7604, went missing off Jeju Island on 28 July while en-route from South Korea's capital Seoul to Shanghai's Pudong International airport.
South Korean and Asiana officials said that rescue teams retrieved the bodies of the two pilots on Saturday, and brought them to shore on Sunday morning.
The search for the cockpit data recorder and the voice recorder continues, they added. There was no information on the state of the airframe.
The aircraft, with the registration HL-7604, went missing off Jeju Island on 28 July while en-route from South Korea's capital Seoul to Shanghai's Pudong International airport.