The Impending Recession
 

How big will it be?

How much will it affect CX and KA wrt China traffic?

What strategies are you going to use to protect your investments? Oil? Gold? Wheat futures?

It seems things are about to get nasty.

I am worry about if the oil price are going high ( whichs already a new peak there ) it can be affect Cathay' s overhead cost significantly.

Absolutely nothing new here. Airlines ordering record amounts of a/c when business is good, and taking delivery when business is down. Hmmm. What to do with all these shiny new airplanes. :ugh:

I think the question was something like "ALL economic booms have resulted in bust. Do you think this will be any different?"

I'd say you've been listening to the BBC and CNN too often. They love to preach doom and gloom especially in an election year.

May I borrow those rose-coloured spectacles of yours ol' chap?

Forecasts are that this will be the last year for a while of massive profits due to oil prices and global downturn etc.


A little unrealistic my friend, maybe 10% by the end of the year but 40% is off the scale.


Cargo has suffered a bit over the last year, the plans for this have been on the go for ages. I think CX should have had this up and built 2 years ago.


Quite simply to help ease the threat of a global downturn, UK and the US in a credit crunch, major UK money lender in ruin and another major bank bought out by JP/Chase.


This one makes me laugh...Currently China has the world watching regarding Tibet, yes they will shoot themselves in the foot just before the Olympics in their handling of this situation. Also, growth is forecast to slow after the Olympics and after getting some negative press already regarding the air quality, human rights etc things will slow down.

The gap between CX and all other carriers has been closing over the last few years, more pilots from CX have left for other carriers. US cargo carriers paying more than CX.

:ok::ok::ok::ok:


All in All, we are working for a stable airline. Maybe time to tighten the belt, just a little.

To put it in Warren Buffett's words: "For every bubble, there is a needle in waiting".

The question is, is it really a bubble yet? China is certainly an amazing growth machine, which will go on for a while - pending a few bumps on the way (inflation, etc.).

The bigger problem is IMHO the ever declining U$ dollar - (Oil is noted in U$), which exaggerates the price inflation of oil in addition to real demand (China, India, etc.)

...And the US Federal Reserve U$ printing machines are very busy, recently to bail out the rich investment bankers for their stupid investment mistakes ( see Bear Stearns, which speculated heavily by buying bad debt from sub-prime US mortgages). What's next?? Bail out Lehman or Goldman Sachs??? America's current recession, might be worse than expected - and if the US is in trouble, everyone is..

My point is, the dollar is poised to grow weaker in the near future and with it the price of oil higher. Comparing Price of Oil against the price of Gold (hedge against inflation) over the past 5 years or so, will show that the declining U$ is the real problem, when it comes to Oil prices (IMHO).

The good news is that all Airlines are in the same boat. The fare's will increase, passenger demand decrease, some Airlines may not survive and close shop or will be bought by others.

As far as job security?? Whether CX or any other Airline.. Job security in the information age is a complete "myth". It does no longer exist. This may have been true for our parents or grandparents, not today. If you want security, go to prison, that's about the only place that is secure.

Just my 5 cents worth ;)

As far as protection against inflation/recession/depression?? If one is really doom and gloom, then possibly Silver, as it is still relatively cheap compared to Gold and is also a metal that is used for production of goods, such as cell phones, etc. (unlike gold, which is not used for industrial production.....)

US slowdown = downturn?

Some basic figures re yearly GDP output
USA 13.8 trillion USD (2007)
China 3.4 trillion USD
India 1.25 trillion USD

Figures freely available.
Don't need to be a rocket scientist to work it out.

kabuzz
It’s even easier to loose it, really.:E:ok:

As I said, should have been done years ago. The whole application etc took ages, long before the scare in the global economy......They didn't just decide like last week.....


Probably on the back of interest rate drop, let's see what happens by the years end.



Congratulations, If it's so predictable (assuming you fly for a living) why are you flying for a living.

KABuzz ... or KABoom??
 

Hey KABuzz ... or should it be KABoom??

Sometimes it's better not to tell everyone how good you are .... or worse still, how easy it is ... when in fact it isn't ... ?


"REALLY" ???

From HSI lunchtime closing prices today:

HSI 21085.51 down 781.43 (-3.57%)

Hang Lung Properties (0101) $23.90 down -$2.10 (-8.077%)
Henderson Land (0012) $51.30 down $2.80 (-5.176%)
Sun Hung Kai (0016) $110.00 down $6.40 (-5.498%)
New World Development (0017) $16.96 down $0.74 (-4.181%)

a few others to ponder:

Cheung Kong (0001) $101.90 down $3.70 (-3.504%)
Midland Realty (1200) $7.06 down $0.83 (-10.52%)
Sino Land (0083) $16.02 down $1.34 (-7.719%)
R&F Properties (2777) $16.50 down $1.26 (-7.095%)

Seems like anything to do with property is underperforming big time?

Given that Hang Lung, Henderson and SHK have all spent most of the morning trading at prices consderably lower than they traded for most of Tuesday, it would be fair to say that you are almost certainly well below cost already in those issues.

Unless, of course, you sold yesterday at their intraday highs??

Silly me - OF COURSE you did!!

Sheesh ........ :D

It is entirely possible that property may have had it's run for this year already and simply be doing a repeat of the late 2005 scenario where prices fell 20% over the following 18 months? Who knows??

The point is, you most certainly don't know and to try and make out like the current market is utterly predictable - "a no brainer" makes for some humerous reading to those of us who have been around a few decades:}

There is already evidence of falling prices in the NT ... they are often a reliable precurser of falls to come in other parts of HKG.

Here's a question for you KABoom ...

What do you think would happen to interest rates should the HKMA pull a swifty and decide to re-peg the HKD to, let's say, the yuan sometime in the next 12 months (assuming it became fully convertible), or a basket of other more stable free floating currencies?

Now I don't fully expect they will; but if you have done your homework, you will have seen that the old re-peg talk has resurfaced (as it does periodically). I doubt very much that we would continue to enjoy the current somewhat bizzare situation of high inflation being fuelled by low interest rates should a change to the peg occur. It's a fair bet that we would see an unwinding in the property market that would be spectacular to watch (assuming you weren't vested).

Property is at an 11 year high in most parts of Hong Kong and while there are good returns available on rent etc, that situation may well not last forever. In fact, from my experience here over a considerable period, it almost certainly will not.

A good time to be buying property stocks?? Not in my opinion ... it's a sector with far too many unknown variables that could play out in numerous different ways over the next 6 months.

The whole point is: I really don't know and nor do you ... and it most certainly isn't a "no brainer"! The stock market is great investment over time ... but it's easy to get it wrong when you are speculating, which you clearly are.

404 Titan is right on the money!:ok: (funny thing that ;))

DL,NW and CO have all announced reductions to domestic services by about 10% unless oil prices "reduce significantly".

War is possible is the Andians and probable in Iran.

USD has not yet finnished sinking.

The driver of the global economy is the US economy whose value lies mostly in over inflated domestic property prices which are now tumbling.

We live in interesting times.

Intransitgent
 

Very well said my friend....I glad someone has pointed this out to Kabuzz.


:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

For an in-depth analysis of how markets work go to youtube & do a search for "George Parr Subprime":)

The HSI will test 17000 before a sustained turnaround. If you're day or swing trading kabuzz, you're a brave man.

Recessions are no novelty, they come and go, just as the asian 1997 market meltdown . . . followed by SARS . . . 9/11 . . .

The bottom line is that people don't stop flying and freight doesn't stop moving. Usually the low cost carriers will get a boost during recession.

The higher price of oil is relative, it's a cost based issue, it affects all carriers.

Cpt Underpants
 

I invested 400,000k last week, and as I said, HSI to rally this week. Already up 5% this morning. I will sell my 8-9% gains this afternoon, and hold the rest for another day.

HSI to test 17000, you are in dreamland, this market is really hot, and will climb 2-3000 this week.

I am in the money, its cruel, so cruel...

Pump 'n Dump specialist eh? Watch. Are you a betting man?

And oh yes, Pinky - read the post

Cpt Undies....Told you so!!!

Yes I've sold up thanks, a nice 13% gain for the week.

Now to celebrate at the 7s, I can finally afford that xtra jug of beer ;)