How many captains have left the company since covid? And FOs. Can someone remind me?

There are no more farewell posts, so there may be too many to cope with. My seniority number keeps climbing.

As if seniority matters in CX…..

It matters, if you want to see if people above you are leaving.

The seniority list is by far the best way to go work out the numbers. Check SO friends if you want the true number. I've jumped more than expected in the last two months alone. Just wait for EK to hire the DEC and it'll skyrocket.

Duh - what a rocket scientist you are. I am not talking about a seniority list. My question was if seniority exists anymore in CX? Didn’t you sign it away?

Well and truely lost on the new POS. Won't be back but you already knew that...

Faster command time then

Seniority exists in CX. It’s no use to us. It’s arguable if it’s been any use to us for a long time. But they do update the seniority list regularly, it’s the most current data about departures available to us.

Get a speedy upgrade (especially with all the senior folks being forced to retire early and depart due to these unforeseen circumstances) and then if your passport allows, better doors will open!

Carol, an airline surviving as a fraction of its former size won’t lead to speedier commands, despite the resignations. Probably the opposite.

The mass exodus is faster than the current downsizing. And post covid when travel picks up.

Don't think HKG is gonna have a "post covid"...

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/08/19/ho...-consultation/

Eventually. Be positive lads!
How do you live life being so negative here all the time?

I'm sure people will be streaming in for their 3-week quarantine after reading that BS ad.

Ps. Trying to be positive, but the gov go out of their way to make it miserable for us over here.

Going back to seniority numbers, I checked the seniority number of the last SO on the list on april 23 2021.

He/she was on number 3109, now it is 2848. So that should mean 261 pilots left in the last 138 days.

Yes, and the list presently includes the EUR/NAM basees; of which very, very few will return.

I for one have been foolishly tracking my seniority number for the past number of years (what an idiot thinking i'd ever get an upgrade....but thats another story)
I believe my numbers can provide an insight on the historical and current "retention" rates. (for the lack of a better word)
The numbers are the spots ive moved up for each month
2018
October - 8
November - 9
December - 5
2019
January - 21
February - 15
March - 13
April - 19
May - 20
June - 11
July - 10
August - 13
September - 8
October - 10
November - 11
December - 9
2020
January - 6
February - 2
March - 10
April - 10
May - 13
June - 6
July - 7
August - 10
September - 3
October - 50 (yay pos18)
November - 42
December - 39
2021
January - 32
February - 45
(at this point I gave up tracking each month, but from the beginning of march to the end of july - 240 nope not a typo, two four zero)
August - 38

yeah so those are the numbers, interpret them as you like

carolknows

thanks for the laugh, I needed it! :}

Posterizing

There is nothing to interpret. Everybody knows what is going on in this madhouse : some retirements, a lot of resignations and generalised bases closure. I am afraid it does not equate to an improvement of our package or to a reduction in quarantine requirements.

Ha ha - thanks for not specifying my gender or sexual preference Curry Lamb - very PC of you ;-)

In 2 or 3 or 4 years yes we will be at the new normal. The very fact that flying has reached or exceeded pre covid levels in some domestic markets suggests to me that one day people will fly internationally as much as they did precovid. I dont know what that will look like - just like I didn't know straight away what flying would look like post 9-11. But flying returned to, and then exceeded, pre 9-11 figures. So yes I am an optimist - I do believe that within some time (1 or 2 or 3 or 4 years) CX flying will exceed pre covid. That is assuming we dont get rid of a whole lot of a/c since we are severely undermanned in any scenario that has us flying more than 70% of what we flew pre covid for a few years.

Manning in Jul 2018 - we had 1223 CN, 1456 FO and 549 SO. Beginning of last year we had roughly 100 more pilots total but dont have the accurate breakdown - but let's just assume an extra 30CN, 40FO and 30SO extra. So that means roughly 1260 CNs, 1500 FOs and 590SOs in Jan 2020.

Today we have just over 900 CNs - of which we may lose another 100+ from Europe/LHR/North America - so maybe 800ish in a few months from now. So we are short over 450 CNs from CX mainline.

KA had roughly 250CN and 250FO - so we need ANOTHER 250CNs to man all those shiny new A321s and extra 330s.

So we NEED about 700CNs to get back to 100% manning - it will take a few years to train that many - maybe 4-6years?
We are undermanned on mainline by about 200 or so FOs - plus lose another 100+ from the aforementioned bases - means we need 300 to get back to 100% - plus another 700 to replace the 700 upgraded.

So to get back to 100% manning will take many years - it is NOT something that can be achieved in a year or two. So the options are - slow recovery from covid (say 3-5 years) then the training machine can keep up (maybe?) or just get rid of a/c to save face. I suspect the latter.

Love your analysis NC
Also, do factor in the people leaving when housing is effective no more. Many are in the stages of planning their exit. When this happens and (leisure and biz) travel starts picking up....

It will be interesting to how successful the company will be in trying to attract new pilots under the current cos in such large numbers, especially as many many other companies will be hiring too in that scenario.

Market forces finally slated to work in our favour?

Great post NC, but you forgot that they don`t need so many pilots....CX wet dream became reality just in time...

https://simpleflying.com/cathay-paci...-a350-flights/

phew, look at the comments in that article... not the best thing to be a pioneer with as an airline.

1. they will still need a dog
2. who flies when you have to go to the bathroom?

Slightly confused at CX’s statement that ends with saying “it all depends on how the pandemic plays out”..

What does the pandemic have to do with single pilot ops?

Also - it doesn’t alter the number of captains needed..

because if things continue the way they are Cathay will go out of business and won't be around in 2025 when they want to do this

Dingleberry Handpump

Exactly , safety issues aren't addressed, and i hope we all remember Air France 447, especially CAA-s around the world, i just can't comprehend that they are even thinking about it.

Cutting costs, OK i understand, but how far does that go...the bean counters from Wall street have entered the cockpit, bye bye safety.

I am glad that there are many comments, and that the argument against will be strong if that motion comes to life, lessons from AF447 gone to waste.

https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Air_France_Flight_447

Lessons? CX has got rid of some of its more experienced baby sitters and now they are talking single pilot. These people are seriously “move beyond”. When the inevitable occurs the CAAC will be rushing in with their biggest nutcrushing boots on. Penny Bay going to be the least of your worries

Posterising

Please continue to log and monitor the numbers, and share the big numbers with us in months to come! Will be interesting

Numero Crunchero

NC, what do you propose as incentives to get more become trainers?

Incentives not required anymore. With POS18 Trainers are appointed by the company.

carolknows

If numbers are a thing of interest, during August 2020 I did a count of the number of crew and sorted them by rank and fleet. Took a look just now (August 2021) and made a little table for comparison. The based crew numbers are rather strange as almost all canadian/ frankfurt based crew can still be seen on the list (not sure if that means they are returning to Hong Kong, but most likely an issue of a not up to date list as there is a huge drop in numbers for our Australian based colleagues). Expecting the London numbers to go down in the future as well.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....89ca68ebb7.png

Wow thank you for putting time into this!
Strange that the base figures are not up to date. But true, sadly those who have recently taken up a London last couple years would certainly not in any way consider returning!
How do you analyze the ratio of 777 fos to cns? And the future trend of this?

Looking from Aug 2020 to Aug 2021, theres a drop of 340 777 CNs. This coincided with a 140 increase on the 747, and a 50 increase on the airbus, and 27 on the 320s. It would therefore seem that the majority of the total loss of around 130 captains from all fleets came from the 777, either from retirement/ resignation. Id be expecting the 777 CN number to go down even further with more drafting to the 320 and the 747, and now with rumours that the 777 fleet is going to be reduced to only a small fraction of what it used to be.

777 FO numbers dropped only slightly comparatively by a number of 120. Interestingly this is also the total number of HKG based FOs lost from Aug 2020 to Aug 2021. This once again happened with a increase of 70 on the 747, but a drop of 30 on the airbus. (Will not be counting the 27 on the 320 as most of those are DEFOs from dragonair.) Therefore it would seem from the numbers that FOs spread more evenly from all fleets made up the total loss of 120 FOs between Aug 2020 - Aug 2021.

If you look at CN/FO ratios back in Aug 2020, only the 777 had a close to 1:2 ratio. Both the 747 and Airbus were closer to a 1:1 ratio. The current ratio of 1 CN to 2FOs on the 777 fleet somewhat makes sense if you think about the future direction of the company, which is to make the 777 the workhorse for high demand long haul/ ultra long haul flights, while leaving the shorter flights for the other fleets. However, considering the ratios of the other fleets and 2SO ops etc, I would expect that the company is planning to bring 777 FO numbers further down, most probably by drafting to other fleets mainly the 320. This is just a guess but the initial draft to other fleets most likely focused on captains, which may also explain the current skewed ratio on the 777.

Poster! You will be the perfect candidate to do budgeting for the company! Thanks for the analysis!

In your opinion, when do you expect the 777 number to stabilize? Especially the current draft of captains. Assume long haul travel starts picking up next year... How much further is the 777cn number going to spiral? How many years will this draft spread across? And do you expect the 777 FOs due to be upgraded this and next year be automatically sent to other fleets? Interested in your deep investigation and scrutiny!

If rumours that the 777 fleet is to be shrunk to less than a quarter of what it used to be is true (around 10 planes), a number of around 100 CNs and 150 FOs would make sense. This would require 80 more CNs and 250 FOs to leave the 777 fleet. Coincidentially enough, 250 CNs and 250 FOs was the ballpark figure of Dragonair pilots. Considering their fleet of half A320 and half A330, it would be a good ballpark figure to assume that half of the crew were tasked to fly the A320. The 330 extra 777 crew would perfectly fill that void. (minus a few from resignations/ retiring)

I think we would all agree that though this shrinking of the 777 fleet is a short term measure (5 year period would be a good ballpark figure), the company is most likely not concerned about maintaining the 777 fleet crew compliment, and is focusing on building the 320 fleet as that is expected to be the fleet that would return to full capacity the earliest. Only when capacity really returns to a point where the 777 makes financial sense will they then either transfer crew back to the 777 from the 330/747, or do further hiring. Therefore, from a cost point of view, and from what the company have done in the past, it would not make sense for FOs to be upgraded to the 777 in the near future, as it would be money spent now, when it could be spent later (thus making it someone else's problem). A safe bet therefore is to expect more hiring from the Dragonair pool, and more drafts from the 777 in the future to fill the 320 spots .

Sidenote: I dont think id be interested in the bean counting, I only do these analysis to try and make better career decisions, glad that you are finding it interesting though.

Very interesting how you managed to calculate these stats! Next scenario, if 200 FOs were to be forced off the 777, how does this selection take place? Random selection? 2 out of 3 FOs next in line for 777 upgrade get randomly allocated to another fleet? What's your take on this?

Numero Crunchero, I'm also interested to hear your take and predictions on Poster's figures and analysis!

Id be surprised if any get on the 777 at all. Looking at the last 200 FOs who have been ugraded to CNs, only 11 were to the 777. If you zoom closer and only look at the last 140, the number drops to 3, and that was when there was actual flying on the 777.

Hong Kong law does not recognise the concept of unfair dismissal.