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jriv 22nd Aug 2020 00:56

Numero Crunchero

I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.

It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.

Hydrolix 22nd Aug 2020 01:40

That’s not what he’s saying. He’s saying that there is an acceptable level of death in the world and that COVID has only marginally affected it. It is the decisions of governments around the world that he is disagreeing with. There is an acceptable risk of death in many things we do, but the governments don’t ban everything. You have a chance of dying on the roads, but the government don’t ban cars. If you’re worried about dying on the roads, don’t drive but allow people who want to accept that risk to do so. If you’re worried about dying from the ‘Rona then don’t go outside. We live in a (mostly) free world, allow individuals to make their own minds up and assess the risks for themselves.

jriv 22nd Aug 2020 01:55

So you’re arguing against the requirement for seatbelts and other laws society has passed in order to protect the greater good? Sounds like a philosophical argument, not a scientific one.

missingblade 22nd Aug 2020 02:16

Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just like in large parts of Europe the death rates will most likely reduce to almost nothing. Let's hope this is true - and a lot of data now point that way.

If this turns out to be the case - and we will know within the next month or two - then the worst is over and in the EU and the USA life will quickly get back to normal with or without a vaccine.

However HKG, Aus and NZ have painted themselves into a corner with their zero infection policy. And we will be stuck waiting for a vaccine for another year while the western world gets on with life. And their airlines will be flying while cx and quantas slowly go bankrupt.

Hydrolix 22nd Aug 2020 02:38

Laws (such as the seatbelt one) attempt to reduce the risk to as low a point as possible without sacrificing everything else. It is not black and white, everything is a fine balancing act, I would argue most governments around the world have tilted too far in the wrong direction and everybody is paying the price for that. There was a significant element of “follow the leader” as to what was working and what was not. I won’t even get into the “modelling” debacles. If I had to ask myself, where would I rather be right now, 9 months after the initial outbreak? Victoria under stage 4 lockdown, or Sweden under, well nothing? Even if it meant my elderly parents may die 1-2 years early? Easy decision for me. At least I’d get to visit them before they croaked.

jriv 22nd Aug 2020 03:07

I wonder what they'd prefer?

Hydrolix 22nd Aug 2020 03:45

I don’t wonder. I know

MENELAUS 22nd Aug 2020 04:55


From a distance 22nd Aug 2020 06:06

Can we please get back to holding on to our underpants.

missingblade 22nd Aug 2020 06:07

Here's a scenario for you..

A year from now. The property market has crashed, most hotels and local businesses as well as airlines are bankrupt.

All of hkg gets vaccinated by something thats about 60% effective ( scientists are hoping to see 60%)
Hkg opens up.
Out of 7 million people in hkg there absolutely will be a certain amount who gets sick at that point since the vaccine isn't 100% effective. How many? Maybe conservatively 5% of the population. That's 350000 cases. How many will die? A few thousand since we now know the virus basically only kills old people and those with existing medical issues.
With or without a vaccine there will eventually be deaths.

So to answer you question as to "what they'd prefer" - most older people would probably prefer for the rest of the world's population who are not at risk to get on with their lives while old people are protected. So that the planet doesn't go bankrupt. So that millions don't go hungry. So that millions of children get education. Etc etc..

What will hkg ( and NZ and Aus) do once they have thousands of cases after the vaccination?? Shut down again? Close the schools again?

The above outcome is already achieved in places like Sweden. Without a vaccine they had most likely about 15-20 % of the population infected. And STILL ONLY A FEW THOUSAND DEATHS. As will probably be the case in hkg anyway even with a vaccine. And they did not destroy their economy and society in the process.

mngmt mole 22nd Aug 2020 06:44

Well, that outcome was solely due to Sweden having a courageous, sensible and focused leadership. Not the headline seeking careerists who inhabit most western Governments. We've destroyed a decade of economic growth in 5 months, allowed craven politicians to become authoritarian despots and harmed and killed millions through economic distress and poverty of health care (think of the other illnesses that haven't been treated over the past half year, involving millions of people worldwide...cancers, heart disease etc..). This will prove historically to have been the greatest and most tragic farce in modern human existence. Nothing short of an abomination and outrage.

Slasher1 22nd Aug 2020 07:14

Ya got that right.

Boy do you got that right.

A complete farce in the mistaken belief you can control something you cannot control. And then shifting the goalposts to further bureaucratic self-interests. Enabled by frightened mice who bought into the lie that you can bubble wrap life. Everything has an opportunity cost, and nothing in life is free.

Herd immunity may well work, but the herds can also do some pretty stupid stuff when it comes to mental health and fear based decision making. Placing ones trust in those who should not be trusted and validating the Sage of Baltimore's words about trusting some 'smart' government authority to make a good--or even reasonable--choice: "the worship of jackals by jackasses"

raven11 22nd Aug 2020 07:42

I won’t take credit for the following, it was forwarded to me. I think it summarizes the madness that has gripped mankind:

Corona Virus is the new Global Religion – gathering new believers among the masses like Greta and climate change could not. As evidence consider the following:

– This movement aims to indoctrinate, isolate adherents (or convince them to ‘self-isolate’) and bombard them with 24/7 mental programming.
– Disconnect them from their old ways and culture. Enforce a cancel culture upon non-believers. To shut down and eradicate the Old System.
– Corona is the omnipresent god and sees all. It can get you at home, at work, in the car, in bed, and especially doing fun stuff. (No wonder some other religions ban dancing and frivolity.)
– Non believers and mockers will be stricken with Corona, for they are Sinners.
– You were born sick/sinner. You have no method of proving your health. As a concequence you must attone daily with purification rituals – using Purell, natch.
– You must believe and await the return of your saviour, the vaccine. Beware the false vaccines that are not 100% effective.
– Until that time you must live a pure lifestyle, alone, as in a monastary.
– When in front of your god you must remain reverant, hushed and masked. Do not show ones face, do not question the narrative, or you will be stricken.
– Corona had a virgin birth, got it? Racist.
– Science plays little part in it. The media will ordain the truth.
– Your government and the media are the physical manifestation of the Corona gods. They are the Oracles. Only they can divine the truth and communicate it to you via daily manna sermons – on your personal electronic device.
– At least once daily you should check the Corona numbers and scores. It will give you an idea of how many sinners live among us.
— Gensis: Great reverence is paid to the Flu of 1918. Perhaps spoken about on bended knee. This was 1918 – BCV (Before Corona Virus)
– In the future, all heathens and heretics will be marked by a social justice virtue score. Only those with sufficient virtue, only those which took the communion – the chip, the needle, whatever – will be allowed to gather.

Just raise your arms, wear your Freedom Masks and give thanks. Maybe, one day, far into the future, after all have been cleansed, you might get freedoms back. You must believe in this redemption.

I wish I were joking…

Oasis 22nd Aug 2020 08:27

Or maaaaybe it is not some evil plan to make you communist.

exfocx 22nd Aug 2020 08:46

Originally Posted by Numero Crunchero (Post 10866785)
The initial reaction to covid was probably the right one(let history decide) - the ongoing reaction is an economic own goal - a stupendous achievement in self destruction for no good reason.

Population of earth - 7.6billion. Average life expectancy - just over 72 years. So mathematically speaking about 105million people die per year(if population was evenly distributed by age - it is not- real figure is lower). So about 50-60m people have died from all causes so far this year. Covid has killed 800K or about 1.6%. From a WSJ article a few weeks ago the median age of death for covid in the US was 80. So you're going to average out the WHOLE world and treat every situation as one.

So we are locking down the world because 1.6% of all deaths are from covid and it is killing people around the age they usually die. Sounds a bit like the flu (etc) to me. How many times do you need to hear from the med experts that it's nothing like the flu. Or the damage it's doing to peoples health (heart, lung & brain) who didn't even need a ventilator.

The naysayers will go "yeah but if we hadn't locked down it would be much worse". Ok - we can rely on mathematical models OR we can look at a real world 'model' - Sweden. LMFAO, see below. Even the experts who haven't lambasted Sweden have said it'll take yrs to know the answer the Q was the Swedish path correct. How about looking at the US, Italy, Spain, Britain etc.

Sweden - popn 10.3m - life expectancy 82. so mathematically speaking they should have lost say 60-70,000 from all causes in the last 6-7 months. They have lost just over 5,800 due to covid. So less than 10% of the normal number of deaths have died of covid - median age of deaths is 84. Eighty nine percent of all deaths were 70 and over. Their rate of infections/death is very low now - no second wave. strange huh? (sarcasm alert). Sweden? Really, what a poor example. Death rate that is 3 to 5.5 times the other Nordic counties with NO BETTER ECONOMIC OUTCOME!!!!

Next argument - they didn't want to overwhelm the health system. Ok - Sweden again - they have about 25,000 hospital beds, They have had a total of 85K positive diagnoses of covid. Worldwide approx 80% or more of covid cases are either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. So if 20% needed hospitalisation then that means 17,000 beds needed. And let's face it- those 85K cases were spread over time though peaking a few months ago. So perhaps at its peak maybe 10,000 beds were needed - or 40% of them? So is that overwhelming the health system? Actually as of 2017 they had 22237 beds, declining from 31365 in 2000 (statista.com). By the way, what was the occupancy level prior to CV? How many ICU beds are there and how many ventilators?

Victoria Australia. They have a population of 6.4m - which means, mathematically speaking, about 219 people should die per day. They have lost a total of nearly two days worth of deaths due to covid. So that works out to be about 1% or so - 2 days out of the last 200 or so.

Australia had 7,500 ventilators before covid- they rushed out and bought another 2,500. As of a week or two ago, Victoria was using 42 of them - so only 9,960 spare - lucky they are in level 4 lockdown. According to the AGE, Vic had 1000 as of late March and had ordered 2000, so I doubt that the rest of the country had another 6,500. Do you think they should wait until they get inundated before buying more, or after seeing what was happening in Med countries they should be a little proactive.

And I don't know the long term stats but I will make an assumption about nursing homes. I will assume most in there are 70-90 and average longevity is 80. I will assume they are no more or less healthy than those aged 70-90 outside nursing homes. Well with 6.4m people you would expect, very roughly, about 800,000 or more to be in that bracket (very very rough guesstimate). If the average age of morality is 80, then you would expect up to 10% of them to die per year- which is up to 80,000 of them per year. or say 40,000 in the last 6 or so months. Victoria has had, what , around 400 deaths due to covid. So about 1%. I would say best leave the stats to the professionals. I doubt your high school maths attempt is really up to it.

Clearly i am missing something about Victoria- maybe it is just state premiers being able to exercise, and abuse, power for the first time since federation almost 120 years ago. Yeah, you are. They're there to represent all citizens, not their to let a heap of people needlessly die so your life isn't interrupted. Remember, these people have sons, daughters and grandchildren who most likely have a value towards those you would cast adrift, that isn't of a monetary nature.

Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.

exfocx 22nd Aug 2020 08:55

[QUOTE=missingblade;10867273]Jriv - the irony is that due to the USA's utterly inept management of the virus they will very likely reach a significant level of herd immunity very soon and just.....

Seriously, herd immunity? Even the goddam experts are nowhere near claiming that one. I read one from Sweden itself (Karolinska Institute) saying it will yrs before you can work out if Sweden's approach was best and he wasn't bagging it. And you obviously haven't read anything on the pitfalls of so called herd immunity for cv19.

exfocx 22nd Aug 2020 08:59


I think it very wise of you not to claim credit for such crap. Very wise indeed.

Numero Crunchero 22nd Aug 2020 14:46

Originally Posted by jriv (Post 10867237)
Numero Crunchero

I noticed you didn’t mention the United States in your analysis. If you had, you’d see that the US is seeing about an extra 1,000 deaths a day compared to pre-COVID. That’s the third leading cause of death just behind cancer and heart disease. And that’s WITH a lot of areas requiring masks, limiting travel, and closing bars and restaurants.

It is absurdly arrogant to think that you are smarter than all the public health officials in the entire world.

I quote numbers - and yes I let my opinion sneak in. Here are some numbers - see if they justify the US being in a dire state. Per the JH website the US is up to about 175K covid deaths.

Let's look at the US.
Population 328m - life expectancy 78.4 So, if population was evenly distributed by age, about 4.18 million people die per year. Or in the last 6 months or so, that is just over 2million

The highest co-morbities with covid deaths are Obesity, hypertension and Diabetes.
Almost 40% of adults in the US are obese - that is around 70million of them.
Over 30million US adults have diabetes
Over 100million US adults suffer from hypertension.

In the US from data compiled till mid June(American council on science and health) the mortality rate if infected (IFR) was 0.14% and below, if 64 or younger, and 5.6% if 65 and older.

High risk group is 65 and over
There are at least 54million in this band
25% have diabetes - that is 13.5m
70% have hypertension - that is 37.8m
35% (2010 figures) are obese - that is 18.9m

Life expectancy/mortality rates
65 - 19.4 years/ 5.2%
70 - 15.5 years/ 6.5%
75 - 12 years / 8.3%
80 - 9 / 9.1%
Simple average of those four mortality rates is 7.3%. What that means is that 7.3% of those aged 65-80 die every year. That equates to 3.9million per year - or say 2million since the start of covid.

Total US deaths due to following causes (all ages, not just those over 65)
Obesity 300K (say 150K in last 6 months or so)
Hypertension 472K (around 235K in last 6months)
Diabetes 270K (around 135K in last 6 months)

So a lot of numbers - what does that tell me
Well - we can't add obesity, hypertension and diabetes deaths because presumably many (the majority?) are coincident. So let's just say, in the last 6months, the minimum is 235K (hypertension) and it could be as high as 520K. But maybe the real figure is closer to the hypertension amount of say 235-300K??? Just a guess with no real science behind it.

Now here is the interesting thing - being 65 or over, you have a 7.3% chance of dying in the US this year - based on actuarial tables. But covid mortality, for those over 65 that catch it, was 5.6%. So the mortality rate of covid is LESS than the usual mortality rate for just existing in the US being 65-80.

So no I don't know more than Drs in the world - but 175K deaths when normally the 'co-morbities' of Hypertension, obesity and diabetes cause from 235K-520K deaths in any given six months, doesn't seem like covid is adding to the death toll? Time will tell - when we have data.

cxorcist 22nd Aug 2020 15:08

Originally Posted by exfocx (Post 10867400)
Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.

Yes, let’s leave it up to the experts and shut up about it. Staying uninformed and without opinion except that the Party line is always best. When in history has that ever gone wrong? Oh wait, pretty much every time. Keep thinking pilots... even if you’re not the “experts”!

8driver 22nd Aug 2020 15:23

Originally Posted by exfocx (Post 10867400)
Pilots should stick to what they know best, if some non industry idiot starting pontificating about the cause of an accident, pilots would soon tell them where to go with their uninformed opinion. I guess that's the same here and with CC.

Here in the United States 40-45% of deaths have been in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Several blue state governors forced nursing homes to take COVID patients. In many states while the facilities were locked down from visitors, staff were not being tested and the infections crept in that way. I believe that problem has generally been solved. The Washington Post reported two weeks ago that 40% of known cases are asymptomatic. That alone tells us that there are many more people have had COVID then the "known cases." We've known that for a while. In all likelihood the fatality rate will be somewhere below 1%. Speaking of current cases in the United States, .67% are listed as serious or critical. That means 99.3% are not. Meanwhile, of the businesses listed on Yelp that had to shut down, 55% have closed for good. Mortgages are not being aid, rent is not being paid. Evictions are on hold but that just kicks the can to the property owner. Yes, 170,000 people have had COVID listed as a contributing factor on their death certificates. Including victims of traffic accidents in some cases. Many of those would have had serious complications from yearly influenza. Let's use a figure of 40 million job losses in the US. That's 235 lives upended for every COVID death and that doesn't take into account the failed businesses, the spike in suicides, the children going hungry, the spike in robberies and home invasions, those with serious medical conditions who aren't going to regular doctor visits due to the climate of fear that the media has generated.

Your rebuttal to NC really didn't refute anything he put forward, it was simply a parroting of the climate of fear narrative. A sample headline I read from two days ago said "At 34 he shrugged at COVID, then came the coma." Uh-huh. Then you read in the last paragraph that individual had certain underlying conditions and engaged in several high risk behaviours that put him at higher risk. Even his 80 something year old mother (whom he infected) recovered faster. But the headline fits the narrative. As pilots we're taught to think, analyze the data, and make decisions accordingly. The data is there, and NC is very good at analyzing it.

Enjoy your house arrest Exfocx, the next generation is gonna look back at this and wonder what the hell we were thinking.

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