I've read that before and I follow Dalio on social media. My point stands that trying to predict how aviation and the economy will look 15 years out is nonsensical.

Pilots and their predictions. If I had a dime for everyone that failed to come true. I would be a billionaire.

Billionaire? You'll be lucky to have a dime this time next year DropKnee. :hmm:

that’s a prediction as well, you just blew my mind.

Indeed you are right. Sometimes we need to realize we are not business developers , and although we are likely to be the victims of what is happening, pilots are not decision makers, nor policy makers for airlines.
Some other people get paid way more than the pilot payscale to take these decisions. I'm rather asking myself where are they now... and what's their prediction!
And i'd rather stay away from all what is reported over and over again on the media.

Be safe and stay strong.

Then if you read that we are coming up for a reckoning, and obviously consumers spending will be smashed and as a result of that international flying (more so than domestic) will suffer.

Can you provide a link that will support that? I've googled various versions for airlines during that period and got very little.

Anyway, my take on your assertion without having any historical material to go off. What may be the reason for your "People also forget that aviation actually prospered during the Great Depression of the 1930s" claim, is because maybe your data skews the outlook to that rosy claim because that is the era when airline travel took off, so off a low base whereas today we're talking about a very mature market, such that an airline seat is now a commodity like a loaf of bread and very sensitive to price. Pax numbers (when reviewing airport numbers from around the world) have doubled in 8-10 yrs (8 for the M.E. 3) and more so if you look at the last 30 yrs, while in the west households are heavily indebted (Aust. #2 or 3 in the world) with wages stagnant for the past decade while house prices have boomed. Globalisation has been good for executive pay and extremely wealthy individuals, but for the west the result has been cheaper prices for consumer crap and the massive loss of jobs that started with manufacturing that's has progressively moved up the food chain. Ask anyone in IT what their real wages are like compared to a decade ago, noticed those tax kiosks around the EOFY time at shopping centres? Meanwhile Atlasssian are busy bringing visa workers (so called Skilled Workers on 50+k) into Australia for around high 50s with 5+ yrs experience, a pay level that would equate to a new grad here. Ask a nurse grad if she / he can find work.... yeah nah..... too many visa nurses from Asia already trained.

Imo I think we have seen the best of times and it's likely to be a downhill ride for the next decade. I have a few yrs to go before retirement, but in general I've been bloody lucky and don't believe I've worked any harder than anyone else, street sweeper or whatever and I worry about what is being left behind for those coming through, by this this I mean every field of work, not just aviation.

Good luck, because imo you're going to need it.

My thoughts
Vaccine plus 12-18 months before countries start to open their borders properly for tourism as we saw it. I believe there is plenty of desire to go travelling, it’s the closed borders or restrictions that will stop it. That’s close to 3 years....
Internal domestic travel in countries where community transmission is controlled a lot sooner. But I really can’t see international getting to what....20-30% for years? I feel sick as I contemplate that but I can’t see it better than that. 15 years we will all have forgotten it ever happened, just in time for the next crisis.

I read alot of content and investment books from bulls and bears. Dalio is a legendary investor but the feds spending and US debt is uncharted territory. Who's to say it can't go alot higher than 24 trillion? I don't pretend to know and none of us have a crystal ball. What I do know is that predicting a downturn some 50% longer than the 1920s depression is at the bat**** crazy end of the pessimism spectrum.

YF777,

"Who's to say it can't go alot higher than 24 trillion? " Well, I believe he answers that in the extract linked.

Edit: Btw, even if exaggerated it will still substantial damage.

The reality is that the debt stops growing when creditors stop buying US treasuries (bonds) and the fed’s printing stops creating capital liquidity due to (hyper-) inflation. That’s when the music stops and you better have a chair to sit on.

Or a really good place to go. Perfect storm. The economic engine has been stopped by feckless governments, everyone is borrowing from everyone else, and everyone is printing. Don't even need a press anymore; just electronically add a couple of trailing zeroes. The Keynesian money tree concept has never worked.

I think things will ramp up very quickly soon as the virus threat is handled.

The planes are there the pilots too .And I believe people will fly unless tickets become absurd and I think they won’t for long .

Being alive is about being optimistic.

Reality
 

All fine being either an optimist or a pessimist however when it comes to caring for and supporting your family or planing a career path, being a realist is a must !! Facts over feelings..

I would rather stay home than do a 2 week holiday in the U.K. with the same crap weather I would have at home.

People are craving for a change from quarantine and will absolutely start booking en masse vacations abroad. Nobody I speak to has any plans to reduce their spending on travel, on the contrary, they want to enjoy their life together with their family during a well earned vacation in a safe environment ( think EU).

Icelanta. I admire your stubbornness, in spite of all evidence to the contrary :hmm:

What evidence?! The evidence is an increase in bookings for winter 2021 with travel agencies in Western Europe compared to same time last year

I will be just fine. Remember, I get a dime for every pilot prediction that fails to materialize 👍

It really does get funnier the more times you say it. ;)