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Current retirement figures.
A friend showed me the latest seniority list a few days ago, which was interesting.
Here are some numbers compared to the list from 12 months ago (Apr 18 to Apr 19). The most junior named pilot in April 18 moved up 177 positions (3238 to 3061). This implies that 177 pilots left the company (5.46%). There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left. The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them. Of the 166 that joined, only 14 were FOs. I don't know how many SOs were in the 177 leavers, but losing front-seaters at a rate of even 100 per year is not sustainable, no matter how much spin is put on "sustainable resignation rate". Any normal, rationally-run business would do something to keep their people (and it's not "forcing trainers"). 24 Captains were forecast to retire (to reach age 55 or 65) in 2018, thus we are losing Captains at three times the forecast rate. This year’s forecast retirements are 45. |
Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training. |
Respect
Originally Posted by Natca
(Post 10442876)
Those numbers are sound and when retirements hit in 20-21 this place will fall apart. Hence a new contract and demanded training. |
2019 44 retirements
2020 58 2021 53 2022 51 2023 58 2024 57 2025 58 2026 47 2027 70 2028 62 2029 73 2030 76 2031 81 2032 101 |
"The most junior pax Captain moved up 83 positions, and remained the most junior Captain! In other words, of the 177 that left, 83 were Captains, and no Captains were trained to replace them."
No exactly correct, The most junior Capt(747 for various reasons) will actually be way down the seniority list(and will be the most junior Capt for quite a while until a lot of F/O's slot in front of them) and may have moved up 83 spots as a result of F/O's more senior to them leaving as well as Captain's leaving. I only moved up the Captain list 15 spots in the last year and I am pretty junior on my fleet, so that is net 15 which takes into account Captains senior to me leaving and F/O's senior to me slotting in ahead of me(as happens when guys pass a second kick at it or come back off a base for a command after deferring it for a while) |
Meantime more chaps are leaving across ranks. last I spoke with: 2 NA FO 2 Aussies (1 Fo 1 So) and 1 skipper is waiting to hear. This in the last 28 days. |
If the experience in Qantas is anything to go on the bulk of pilots are retiring at or just before 60, plus you have medical retirements which with the bulk of our pilots 50 plus has been accelerating. What I’m trying to say is that the company will lose far more than those numbers above. |
Don’t worry, it is all ‘budgetted for’...(by the same staff that did the fuel hedge) |
DDOF,
That's why I mentioned most junior PAX Captain, not most junior Captain. For you to only move up 15 spots puts you in the first three pages of the seniority list, so not sure what you meant by "on my fleet". I didn't look at fleet seniority at all, just the ASL. |
Sorry, misread that “Pax Capt” However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and I’m in the low 1200’s |
Originally Posted by DDDOF
(Post 10443951)
Sorry, misread that “Pax Capt” However my seniority number has only change by 15 in the last year and I’m in the low 1200’s Our illustrious Pilot "Leader" moved up 31 spots, and he is below 200. Someone who was 1250 in Apr 18 has moved to 1183 now, a change of 67, so I remain confused how you can only move 15; you are looking at the Master Aircrew Seniority List, not fleet? |
LOL, i really need to RTFQ sorry for confusion OK4Wire
I have moved up 15 spots so far this year, as in from Jan1 2019. So totally disregard, my first post of earlier I totally see how the numbers make sense now, Guess I was talking out of my ass again. |
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:ok:
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"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"
a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....) |
Doesn't include those that joined after Apr18 and left (or got sacked) before now.
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 10445226)
"There were 3244 pilots in Apr 18, now there are 3233, 11 fewer. So only 166 joined to replace the 177 that left"
a drop of 11 pilots in total out of 3233 = 0.3% less - you wouldn't notice - it's in the noise TBH If it's as bad as most posters on here say it is why did 166 people join? Did they Shanghai them? (sorry....) Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. I’m thinking all those A50s aren’t actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates. |
But CXORCIST , you don’t understand fuel is so expensive , it’s actually cheaper to leave the aircraft parked at the bay . Think how much money we are saving by leaving the aircraft parked 24 , 777 300-ER’s is close to half the entire fleet , that should free up some pilots . Crew shortage solved |
Originally Posted by cxorcist
(Post 10445603)
Sorry to burst your bubble, but doesn’t CX/KA have any growth ambitions? If so, how do you do that with declining pilot numbers. Last time I checked, 3 man long haul wasn’t exactly the Savior CX was hoping for. I’m guessing CMP is more of the same. Looks great on paper, but in real life... more broken patterns, fatigue, reserve utilization, etc. Btw, CX is sending approximately two dozen 777-300ER back to the lessors. I’m thinking all those A50s aren’t actually growth. Every time I pass through HKG, I marvel at how many CX airplanes are parked all over the airport. Then when I leave, hardly any of them have moved. They just sit there all nicely buttoned up and losing money. All is not well in CX land, contrary to the song and dance in the weekly updates. |
It reminds me of the organised "sick out" in 1999. Rows of shiny new aircraft parked at where the new terminal building now sits. Quite a site. It seems we may have effectively accomplished the same thing again, this time by seeing their pool of pilots slowly but inexorably evaporate away. Not surprised, as on my European trip this past week, all three of my crew were leaving for greener (and almost assuredly happier) pastures.
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