The Fuel Hedge
 

'....There’s been a lot said about fuel hedging and whether it is the reason for our financial results.....'

What hasn't been said is that the highly experienced fuel hedging expats were moved on and replaced with locals.

How much experience does the fuel hedge team have?
Is there any correlation between the experience of the team and the hedge gain/loss?
Was race a factor in their appointment?
Who signed off on the hedge?
Has anyone been held to account?

The spectrumof your questions and insinuation range from valid to retarded.


Let me ask you this. Does being a male Caucasian, borne and raised in a country the size of a continent, aged between 40-60 increase the propensity of having an unjustified sense of superiority with racist, sexist and homophobic tendencies ?


What gives you the idea that "highly experienced fuel hedging expats were moved on and replaced with locals" ?

Whether it is true or not, given the 'highly experienced fuel hedging' people have screwed the pooch now twice (2008 & 2016) wouldn't you expect them to be moved on?

They screwed up alright, redundancies coming up.

Homophobic? well...

Have you been to the Airbus Fleet office recently ?

Totally Uncalled for. BUT since Everyone in ANY Fleet office has taken a vow to to shaft the men and women below them, then the term you are looking for is Bi.

I'm a homophobic, islamophobic, misogynistic, racist, bigoted, and deplorable fascist; or so I'm told. You got a problem with that?

EFIS check.....stop watching CNN....geesh!

EFIS Check. What is retarded is appointing staff for their race, not their skills.

I have been told by someone very close to all this that Phillip Chen replaced the expats with locals. It would be a simple and valid test to see if there is a direct correlation between experience levels and the hedge losses. If there is then one must ask why where the 'bad' hedgers appointed and by whom.

I hope my source is wrong and the company is better run than it appears to be.

Unlike the managers, my future is directly tied to the future of the company. The problems we face are due to management decisions - screw ups should be examined and explained.

Some people get their jollies by 'virtue signalling', EFIS's shouting from the outrage bus a classic case. controlledrest's questions are perfectly valid, and one wonders if they have been asked by the more high-powered shareholders.

Also, an interesting update from the AOA regarding the historical correlation between the timing of 'doom and groom' announcements and negotiations.

Thread drift

CX has an internal level of racism, just look at the outport staff including engineering staff to a certain extent, outport based cabin crew they're all western - yea right.

I don't see the reciprocal in Asia with western carriers.

You certainly can't put it down to purely a language requirement, westerners are know to speak other languages.

Everyone knows CX wants to localize at every opportunity if they want to then so be it, It's not a western airline so why should westerners care.

Fuel Hedge Rewards
 

Fuel Hedge Team gets it right and saves CX lots of money leads to Fuel Hedge Team receiving big bonus.
On the other hand, if Fuel Hedge Team gets it wrong by same amount they are not billed/salary deducted the amount of what would have been their bonus.
This can only lead to excessive hedging.


.

In 2009 bankers didn't get punished for their irresponsible actions.

Sounds like a CX "internal" GFC!!!

Bueno Hombre,

Exactly.

In this 21st century bonus driven culture where the rewards are greater than the risks by an order of magnitude, these rapid and extreme cycles of boom and bust will only continue. Particularly as company and government leaders have succeeded in normalizing a culture of capitalizing profits and socializing losses.
Over the past 20 years how many times have we been denied profit sharing in exceptional profits because clever bean counters had got a bet/purchase/sale right but "operational profit" has been low? It'll be the same again this year. CX's shareholding of Air China will return a sizable dividend but this will find its way into the "group profit" column, while the fuel hedging fiasco will be part of "operational profit".
What rubbish. How can a futures bet on fuel price be operational yet a futures bet on a stock price be not?

But according to AT "it's different this time".
She's partially correct. It is different.
Low oil prices,
World GDP growth.
IATA estimates of continuing record airline profits.
Virtually free finance.
CX FOP's budget that per capita is the lowest it's ever been, working to a rostering "agreement" that she wrote herself.
If it's so different this time why are they making the same noises they've always made. (I can't believe they've even rolled out the line about currency movements)

She's also right that CX needs to make structural changes.
And it's an easy solution.
Remove the bonus culture. Remove the nepotism structure of senior management being promoted from within instead of head hunting the best people worldwide. Until the directors get on board with structural reforms and remove the management that has led this company so ineptly, then don't expect the staff to do more than their contracted requirement. Why is it that only extra effort at management level gets rewarded? It takes a certain type of arrogance to lead an organization into this mess, then not only claim they know the answers, but they'll be the best people to lead us out of it. But who's shocked? It's the same ruling class, educated in the same schools, who 100 years ago stopped ordering men to walk towards machine guns and decided a light jog would perhaps work.

We'll see by the appointment of the next CEO and the 2016 bonus column if Cathay is truly serious about making structural changes, or are just using the age old adage of never letting a crisis go to waste. Particularly if it's self inflicted. That way it can be claimed to be all part of the grand plan.

It's too bad the battle of Cowpens isn't universally taught as a part of world history. Arrogance and obstiance can extract a pretty hefty price.

Great post Progress, now how do I cut and paste that into the Friday Flyer?

You mean they got rid of the FILTH?
Good riddance.

Err..... What???? Care to explain......

It's an acronym for 'Failed In London Trying Hongkong' a pejorative applied to some expats. It's mrfox's attempt to add balance to the argument.

He thinks the original hedge team was doing a poor job and by inference the current lot are doing OK.

Aaah... Yep, only heard it applied to our fellow ExPat banker..."peers". Thanks.