So what is replacing the 744s?
 

748s? 380s? Or is the rumour mill still spinning at ten to the dozen?

I think they say a decision will come in 2012.

I think the smart money is on the -8I, but not 1 for 1 replacements. CX will probably order between 6 and 12. They already have 10 -8 options which could be firmed as freighters or Intercontinentals. -8Is would be used primarily for slot restricted European airports and seasonally to J-burg due to the high field elevation. The 777 does not work well there due T/O performance, especially in the summer.

Passengers would probably prefer the A380, but I've heard CX is not impressed with its cargo capabilities on long haul routes. The -8I with "sky" interior should be a close second in terms of passenger experience with the biggest difference being the increased cabin noise in the Boeing.

It has to be the 380! The 747-8 is not performing as promised…check all the cancelled orders. I'm sure EK is not wrong with their 90 orders.

Cx not happy with the cargo figures...well they still think our regional bussiness class seat can compete with the A380 to Dubai!!!

The replacement will be : NIL.

The big expansion is a big lie. The average time to command will be 17-20 years.

Exactly 711.

There is a reason why Slosar isn't worried when one of his pilot managers feel they need to run upstairs to tell him that 'we will be parking airplanes next year if we don't increase our recruiting by X...'

Big expansion is a smokescreen. Swire have done their numbers and have decided the airline game is not going to be a winner when oil prices head north again. This airline is being prepared for a sale to you know who.

C152's and expanding to BE76's to accommodate CEP needs. Low on fuel burn in comparison to 380's and 748I's which equates to higher profits, bonuses and share price. Fuel hedging going to be a headache but that's all "taken care of". Only thinking short term of course..... Loads? Loading system Foxtrot never fails.

Sorry - couldn't help myself.

I agree. We better start learning Mandarine!

Frogman,

What is the export market like out of Dubai? Pretty sure EK is not so worried about carrying cargo in pax bellies. Also, Dubai has less true ULH flying than HKG because of central Asia/EU/Africa location.

the answer me thinks is a little bit closer to hand than all this speculation would suggest...just look at discovery magazine.."the 777, which will be the mainstay of our longhaul fleet".....ok not an exact quote ...I'm recalling it from the comfort of my chesterfield, but telling nevertheless. Also just talk to our European engineers about the suitability of the 747-8i in some of our Airports. I really think the future of Cx is most definitely with the triple...regardless of capacity issues

At the end of the day, the fleet decision will be about CX's needs in 10 or 15 years time, not 2012. The 747 has certainly served CX since 1978 and there's no doubt that the 747-8F will serve it well on the cargo front, BUT the 747-8 is the end of the 747 line; the A388, even though it mightn't be that attractive to CX now, is the start of the 380 line.

Airbus will certainly launch the A389 and they are well aware of the comments of carriers like CX who have been pushing for a stretch. They won't let CX go without a fight and when it comes down to a battle between the 748i and the A389 ...

I would say the A380 vs B747 choice depends on how soon the A380 stretch is announced.

Airbus originally planned a 79.4m(10 frame stretch) long -900 up from the -800s 73m. But Udvar-Hazy has been pushing for a 85.1m(19 frame stretch) together with EK.

With dedicated freighters going to most if not all of the destinations across the pacific currently served by -300ER's in north america, I really doubt limited belly space is as big of a issue as most people make it out to be for CX.

Keep in mind that unlike the -8F, the -8i is not suffering from the same performance setbacks and Lufthansa (launch customer with 20 orders and 20 options) has stated repeatedly that they are very satisfied with the progress so far and mentioned the -8i will do everything they expected it to do.

Unexpected performance gains have already been made by a better than expected wing profile on the -8i and furthermore, the GEnX PiP3 (starting 2013 deliveries) which is expected to bring the current +2.7% fuel burn on the engines within +1% of promised fuel burn, is to be quickly followed by a PiP4 which will finally bring the fuel burn down to what was promised or better.

With a order to be announced in 2012 at the earliest, CX would receive -8i's no earlier than 2013.


Comparing cargo capacities:

Note: 744, 77W and A380 numbers are from SQ
Also note: SQ has the lower crew rest fitted to the A380 which takes up substantial belly space.

The -8i would not have this problem.

747-400

capacity: 32 LD-1 / 5536cu.ft + 835cu.ft bulk (total 6371cu.ft)

baggage: (for 375 pax) 14 LD-1 / 2422cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 3114cu.ft + 835cu.ft bulk (total 3949cu.ft) / 18 LD-1

777-300ER

capacity: 44 LD-3 / 6952cu.ft + 600cu.ft bulk (total 7552cu.ft)

baggage: (for 278 pax) 12 LD-3 / 1896cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 5056cu.ft + 600cu.ft bulk (total 5656cu.ft) / 32 LD-3

A380-800 (with lower crew rest)

capacity: 30 LD-3 / 4740cu.ft + 650cu.ft bulk (total 5390cu.ft)

baggage: (for 471 pax) 19 LD-3 / 3002cu.ft

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 1738cu.ft + 650cu.ft bulk (total 2388cu.ft) / 11 LD-3

without belly rest: 3336cu.ft/ 17LD03

B747-8i (Boeing numbers)

cargo carrying capacity (total capacity minus baggage): 12 LD-1 + 2 LD3 or 36 LD3 / 6345cu.ft + 640cu.ft bulk (total 6985cu.ft)

With CX having frequencies and freight as its top priorities, it is very easy to see why they love the -300ER and if they need the additional seats and belly capacity the -8i has to offer, then it seems like a match made in heaven.

I think Sorvad is right with the exception of JNB seasonally, LHR, and perhaps other slot restricted EU airports such as FRA and CDG. Hence, CX will only need a dozen or less.

B-HKD analysis is spot on and clearly shows the problem with the 380 and its lack of cargo space. The stretch will not help matters because it just adds more passengers from two decks to a single deck of belly space. Pretty simple concept if you think about it as 2 for 1 pax seating to belly space, unless they make a combi like the 400.

Frogman, the A380 is a newer design so it must be better??? Wow, that's deep thinking there. And they let you fly airplanes. Scary.

For Info EK carries a LOT of cargo in Pax Bellies Ex Dubai..A LOT!!:ok:

Cabin crew just offered unpaid leave next year.............expansion :}

IAG
 

More likely to be IAG merger or closer cooperation with them using the BA 380s which are coming soon. IAG want to expand in this part of the world, the only place anyone can still see much growth over the next few years.

SOPS,

What is EK exporting from Dubai? Sand, genies in a bottle, or is this mostly thru cargo? Pretty sure Dubai is an extensive importer. Exports? I can't think of anything. Dubai is a great tech stop due location, but I can't imagine much cargo originates there. Happy to be corrected.

This is all somewhat of a redundant conversation. There is a coming apocalypse for the southern chinese economic engine. We will soon find cargo shipments dipping towards decade lows. At best the -8 freighters will replace older -400's which CX will quickly sell or park. As for pax aircraft, we will stick with 777 through the end of the decade. There may be an argument for a new large widebody on the London route...but beyond that there is no expansion coming for years. We are about to see the mother of all economic slowdowns (read: depression). Get your money to a safe place.....there is much pain to come....and soon.


SPOTLIGHT CHINA: Shipping Downturn, Credit Squeeze, Factory Closures, Hong Kong Home Sales Collapse

They use DXB as a hub, for pax and freight. Together with the new Jebel Ali port a mighty player and growing.India is as close as Chonquing, Shanghai etc to HK. Much of the freight CX transports doesn't originate from Hong Kong or the Pearl River Delta either.

World's largest airlines - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I fully agree with Air Profit. There will be no growth, I believe even Cathay realise that we are sleep walking into another economic blackhole, not that we ever left the last one in 2008. Debt has been thrown on top of debt and as we all know, or should do by now, this can only end one way. This will not be conducive for growth by any stretch of the imagination.

All the noise coming out of Europe is just that, noise! Banks lent irresponsibly to weak European nations and now they're suffering. Meanwhile they are being bailed out by those same European tax payers that got shafted, they call this crony-capitalism for good reason.

China is being hailed as the saviour, surely it can come to the rescue, however, as Air Profit said, China is up sh@t creek without a paddle. They themselves went on a spending binge in 2009, giving all and sundry loans which have pretty much been wasted on speculative property bets in Hong Kong. Now you know why this dump of a place we live in is so damn expensive! Most of these loans are non performing, hence we have just seen one of the biggest bank bailouts in China, almost as big as in the US. Do you really think China could give a damn about Europe and the EFSF? Not to mention US bonds which China now realizes is like holding dynamite. When the Fed becomes the buyer of last resort China doesn't want to be holding their worthless debt, believe you me. Not withstanding this, we know how this region is built upon face saving and on this theme the Chinese GDP figures are grossly exaggerated. When you factor in their worthless US debt holdings you can see China is sitting on a time bomb and cannot and will not rescue anyone.

I know this from reading stuff like this below, it's about time we had a dose of reality around here...

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